Well said & I agree with you. I will move my question to Q&A section. Sorry for being a pain.Originally Posted by imdeng
Well said & I agree with you. I will move my question to Q&A section. Sorry for being a pain.
In an attempt to understand DoS MO, I was looking at old PD movements and I found one strange EB2I movement. After the 07/07 fiasco, EB2I PD was retrogressed to pre-fiasco level of Apr-04 - which makes sense. However, in Aug/Sept 2008, PD moved to June-06 and Aug-06, it quickly then regressed back to Apr-03 in Oct-2008. We did not Aug-06 level again until June-2011! I was not actively following this then to have no idea what happened.
Was it the usual case of DoS advancing dates to move CP cases so as to avoid visa number wasted? If it happened in 2008, could it happen again??
Link for the data: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
same here.
PD - Oct 30, 2007
AOS filed - Nov 3, 2011. Sent to Phoenix LockBox
Receipt: Not yet.
However, one of my colleague who filed a day before got his receipt on nov 11. Weird!
I saw this at niunational.com and pasted based on Chrome's translation.
On Wed, Nov 16, 2011 at 10:10 AM, Oppenheim, Charlie W wrote:
As you mentioned the demand based on the 2007 filings has been acted
upon. In the past I had that demand which could be acted upon once it
was determined that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers, and
approximately how many. Now I am must generate new filings based on
the rapid forward movement of the cut-off dates. Once that demand
begins to be reported it will result in the cut-off date slowing,
stopping, retrogressing, or becoming unavailable. So there is likely
to be much more fluctuation than has been experienced in recent years,
when although they were not the moves as early as some would have liked,
at least there was not the significantly increased risk of volatility.
-----Original Message-----
From: contact@niunational.org
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 10:30 PM
To: Oppenheim, Charlie W
Subject: Questions regarding the Demand Data from New Immigrants United
(NIU)
Dear Mr. Oppenheim,
Thank you for your last reply.
As the December bulletin came up, we saw another promising leap with
regard to all categories. Thank you and your team, as always, for
your industrial work!
We also noticed that the recent Demand Data used in the determination
of the December bulletin
(http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf)
indicates the Demand prior to January 1, 2008 to be 25 for China.
However, many of our members who have missed the boat during July 2007
have recently submitted I-485 Forms and received Fingerprint Notices.
They are more than 25 and thus obviously were not calculated towards
the Demand Data. We all know that there are certain post-I-485 phases
(e.g., Receipt Notice, Fingerprint Notice, Name Check Clear, EAD/AP
Approval and Final Approval), so exactly which phase is considered in
calculating the Demand Data?
Moreover, would you be able to share with us how the cut-off date
would move forward in the second quarter of FY-2012? Is it going to
be as promising as the first quarter goes, or else? Thank you.
Sincerely Yours,
Executive Team,
New Immigrants United
This is based on what I read on forums, I became active only in Sep 2009. The dates were moved to 2006 in 2008 as a knee jerk reaction to desperately grab preadjudicated EB2 I/C cases after the spillover rule changes in 2007. Thanks to this around 10% of the folks in 2005 and 2006 got approved but people as far back in 2003 were waiting. Most of the approvals came from TSC, basically they approved cases where things like name check etc were cleared, in those days things were neither automated or organized the way they are today. Now despite this desperate reaction enough EB2 I/C cases could not be found and 6K of spillover still went to EB3 ROW. This is one of the reasons why they should play it safe with a larger buffer so that law is followed in the true spirit. Basically in 2009 things became streamlined and EB2 I/C finally reached into early 2005 most of it was in the Sep 2009 VB i.e. 1 Year of movement that is when the clinical approvals of being current and being approved in the same month started. Then next year we reached May 2006 and then next year to APR 15 2007 and finally a new chapter of intake is being written. Iam sure if those 6K numbers were given to EB2 I/C back in 2008 this intake would have happened a little earlier itself as the numbers would have reached a very close point at the end of FY 2011. Another example of injustice though smaller in terms of numbers but probably worse is that EB3 I/C did not get their regular quota for a few years you can imagine how bad it would be to get 500 out of 2800 visas less in a year. The Chinese folks filed a lawsuit to have this corrected, probably it is due to their efforts that things are better now and allocations are finally being done correctly. The Eb3 incident happened because EB3 M & P gobbled up far more numbers that they were supposed to get and Eb3 had to be set to U because the annual cap was consumed.
Thanks asankaran. My takes:
1. People have direct email access to CO! Wow!! Chinese have much better network with DoS than Indians.
2. Cut-off date slowing, stopping, retrogressing, or becoming unavailable: Everything is on the table. Depends upon how much demand shows up.
3. Since not much additional documentarily qualified demand is going to show up before the next bulletin, we should expect further movement (unless USCIS provides DoS with data on how many new 485s they are receiving - I doubt that)
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Also in 2008,2009 and 2010 the demand seems to be really low.
Looked up this data from http://flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
Country PDyear casestatus PermCount
CHINA 2008 CERTIFIED 1210
CHINA 2008 CERTIFIED-EXPIRED 2118
CHINA 2008 DENIED 353
CHINA 2008 WITHDRAWN 106
CHINA 2009 Certified 1090
CHINA 2009 Certified-Expired 1022
CHINA 2009 Denied 199
CHINA 2009 Withdrawn 205
CHINA 2010 Certified 1778
CHINA 2010 Certified-Expired 2274
CHINA 2010 Denied 338
CHINA 2010 Withdrawn 168
INDIA 2008 CERTIFIED 7198
INDIA 2008 CERTIFIED-EXPIRED 9371
INDIA 2008 DENIED 1676
INDIA 2008 WITHDRAWN 593
INDIA 2009 Certified 6403
INDIA 2009 Certified-Expired 4984
INDIA 2009 Denied 971
INDIA 2009 Withdrawn 1174
INDIA 2010 Certified 14872
INDIA 2010 Certified-Expired 14058
INDIA 2010 Denied 1981
INDIA 2010 Withdrawn 1085
So all together there are 15K Perms approved in for PD in 2008. 13.5K in 2009 and 28K in 2010 for IC. Total of 56K. With 60% Eb2:EB3 ratio = 34K.
So technically with one 30K Spillover, we should be becoming current in a year or so. Whats wrong with this picture?
Assuming:
1. No Demand destruction.
2. All 2007 cases are allocated visas by end of FY 2012.
3. Eb2:EB3 ratio of 60:40, like others were using.
Side note: Adding a snapshot of rest of world: Certified-Widthdrawn and Certified respectively.
2008: 16626;12684
2009: 7455;8584
2010: 21248;16007
Altogether: 82604(Eb2:50K;EB3:32K). This kind of EB2 inflow shouldn't be able to fill up 140K visas....
What am i Missing?
Found a DoS report on LPR (Green Card) population in US. Interesting read: http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/s...pr_fr_2010.pdf
Some quick points:
1. US admitted around 1.1 million LPR every year in the period 2008 - 2010.
2. Biggest chunk: around 0.5M were non restricted family based (immediate family of citizens)
3. Capped Categories: ~215K FB, ~150K EB per year, Diversity ~50K per year
4. The Category "Refugees and Asylees" got more green cards than EB category in past three years ~150K per year!
Country-wise visa allocation (all categories combined) in past three years:
Country.....2010.....2009.....2008
Mexico......139K.....165K.....190K
China........71K......64K......80K
India........69K......57K......63K
Last edited by imdeng; 11-16-2011 at 07:50 PM.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Spec has done a lot of work on PERM data and his results are summarized here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
You would note there that while 2009 is indeed light, 2008 is almost as dense as 2007 without considering any demand destruction. Could it be that your numbers are off because you are not considering Certified-Expired.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Waiting4Ever - Buddy, I believe you missed to consider the dependents in your numbers. The gurus have been using a ratio of 2.04/perm for the dependents.
The FY 2008 file corresponds to all the cases approved in FY 2008 and not the priority date of 2008. PD is to be derived from case number. See this link by Spec and Veni
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
Definitely he is being merciful to EB2IC.
From the email, if one takes very positive interpretation, it seems to me that our thoughts that he is actually going for a count of incoming in early November etc is not happening. He is just doing staggered movements in batches of 3-4 months at a time, and until they actually turn into a qualified demand which he deems is significant enough to overcome his projection of demand he wants, he is going to let it flow in. This does augur very well for folks in March 15th 2008 onwards.
All indications so far then seem to be positive. Right now predictions calculations have taken back seat to CO's gameplan.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
Not opening the actual data into excel, I can point out few things which I feel:
1. EB2:EB3 ratio should be more like 75:25. I have not met single person to date who is in EB3 post july 2007.
2. Dependent factor of 2.25. I think one in four couples would have a non USA born child, and lead to 9 GC applications for 4 primaries. I think you have not multiplied at all by this.
Now suppose your 56k is correct figure, and you go by the axiom that number of PERMs = demand, then 56k demand till 2010 end. Right now 2011 is also going to add, so if 2011 is same as 2010, add 28k for it also, 56 + 28 = 84k demand, so we need 84k visas to make current. Further, it's been say 4.5 years since July 2007. 84k / 4.5 = almost 19k a year. Last two years around 30k SOFAD, so with this assumption of best case 30k SOFAD, the 84k would be gobbled up in say 3 years, but in these 3 years, further 3 * 19 = 57 k would be added, hence not making current.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
A poster on Teddy's other forum (username: FedUpWithGC) indicated that his PD is July-2008 for CP and he has NOT received fee notice. So we can put to rest the rumors of fee notices beyond June-2008. He was specifically reacting to someone suggesting that fee notices have gone for PDs until Sept-2008.
Seems like the current PD movement is part of a deliberate plan and CO will cover ground at least till the fee notices. So in next couple bulletins we should reach the end of June-2008.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I don't think we can discount the fact that someone with a Sept PD claimed to get a receipt. I don't know if it's factual or not or maybe the July chap didn't get his due to wrong address or some other issue on their side.
That being said I do agree that it will go through July 1 and then stop or retrogress.
Main issue is OP has gone with a ratio of '1' based on what he would have read on this forum recently. As GhostWriter suggested OP has to calculate number of PERMs based on the receipt number and then ratio '1' can be used. ( and that will cover many factors such as EB2:EB3 ratio, demand destruction etc)
PS: As for ratio of 2.25 ...not sure from where assumption of out of 4 families 1 will have non USA born kid came from. May be it was true for previous years but not anymore IMHO. I do not come across many people with India born kids now a days.
IMHO 2.05 is quite an optimistic ratio. Refer to the following thread on Trackitt, refer to the post by Aniraj. As Nishant points out its highly likely that 1 in 8 families will have atleast 1 non US born kid. In EB1 especially EB1C the likelihood is even more.Main issue is OP has gone with a ratio of '1' based on what he would have read on this forum recently. As GhostWriter suggested OP has to calculate number of PERMs based on the receipt number and then ratio '1' can be used. ( and that will cover many factors such as EB2:EB3 ratio, demand destruction etc)
PS: As for ratio of 2.25 ...not sure from where assumption of out of 4 families 1 will have non USA born kid came from. May be it was true for previous years but not anymore IMHO. I do not come across many people with India born kids now a days.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-485-approvals
Posted by aniraj200 (9) 11 hours 25 minutes ago
EB2 India PD 6/26/2007 Got approval email today for myself & all the three dependents.
Have updated my profile
Good luck to all
Now a days ratio of eb2:eb3 is more than 75% ( i too did not see who is eb3 from past couple of years except people who did 3 yrs graduation). And regarding ratio 2.25, i dont think it stands any more, from past 1-2 year we are not seeing any married people coming to usa and applying green card, i definetly believe 2.05 is good for calculations.
One more issue to consider: i believe in 2007/2008 there was new rule for Masters students getting 29 months of OPT, which ever the year that rule was invoked, students did not think about starting h1b until one more year, so i believe there will be increase in people with eb2 category after 2010/2011 but their ratio will be less than 2( as 99% of them does not have kids and they marry their classmates)
Main issue is OP has gone with a ratio of '1' based on what he would have read on this forum recently. As GhostWriter suggested OP has to calculate number of PERMs based on the receipt number and then ratio '1' can be used. ( and that will cover many factors such as EB2:EB3 ratio, demand destruction etc)
PS: As for ratio of 2.25 ...not sure from where assumption of out of 4 families 1 will have non USA born kid came from. May be it was true for previous years but not anymore IMHO. I do not come across many people with India born kids now a days.
While the assumption of 1 in 8 family having a non-US-born kid is quite reasonable for EB2, I think there are several factors that cut into the dependency ratio going forward:
1. Indians who come on F1 and transition to H1B and then EB2 will not have any non-US-born kids.
2. Indian professionals are marrying late and having kids late (30s rather than 20s) - and at the same time they are aware of the benefits to the kid if he/she is born in the US. I know of couples who delayed having kids until they were in US.
I don't doubt that 2.25 is probably correct at the moment - however, I think it is in a downward trend with time. BTW - mine is a DINK (Double Income No Kids) household with parallel EB2 filings - so I am doing my best to keep the ratio down :-)
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Teddy- I think lets not take 'selective' examples to prove point. If you look at the sheet Kanmani is maintaning you may get a different impression. And another thing is when we are considering a ratio of '1' and are going by density of 2500/month I think we have all these factors avaraged out and covered. So lets go by that.
PS: 2.05 may not be actual rate for India but 2.25 is too high IMHO. Your own assumption of out of 8 families one having non USA born kid brings ratio to 2.125.
Looking at Kanmani's PERM database there are 16 people who mentioned how many 485s their application will result in and out of those 16, 14 have 2 (self and spouse), 2 have 3 (self, spouse, kid). Small sample size caveats apply - but we are exactly at 1 non-US-born kid per 8 families.
There are several with multiple PERMs or parallel PERMs - but that is not our focus right now. Also - no single people?
Link: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Multiple-Perms
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I'm not surprised. We're mostly EB2I with some EB2C. With a 4 - 5 year wait + 2 years of workex pre PERM + 2 years of MS we're at least 29 years old when we get our I485. From anecdotal evidence, I believe a lot of us are far older than that. How many desi parents will let their kids stay unmarried at the ungodly age of 30.
"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!"
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!" - LOL
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedoc...39_wmv_540.wmv
I guess USCIS transformation will roll out in next 6 months or so for basic non-immigrant categories.
Spec used to have a monthly breakup of PERM data in text form in his thread in FACTS & DATA section. It is now replaced by an annual summary data in image form - I guess because of plagiarism issues. Do we still have that monthly PERM data somewhere?
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
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