
Originally Posted by
nishant2200
Veni, ghostwriter, thanks for correcting. I realized my mistake in the number of PERMs equalling 485 last night, but was unable to login and post. Seems my wifi router needed a reset.
Lets try to venture into some long term projection, although I agree its quite risk prone to do so!
So basically, the max density comes out to be 2.5k with that assumption or elsewise. Teddy has put an excellent post above, in which he is baking the porting into 2.5k. The difference in inventories pointed out by me showed 2k porting, but there was a point made about some cases added to local office, and hence 3k (I personally didn't completely understand this reason). Now let's say since even EB3 folks post july 2007 will port to EB2, few of them will, I guess we can stick with 3k max porting instead of 2k.
I think due to basic reasoning that it is CO, whose office intimates the NVC about sending fee notices, the dates moving to June 2008, the last we all know of about fee notices, has an excellent chance in the next VB or in two parts in next and next to next VB. I personally think next VB would be the kill shot, and it should take to 1st July 2008. Anything beyond that, is possible, but at this point, I feel I cannot say will happen for sure, as much as I can say for 1st July 2008.
FY 2012 has indeed been a turning point for lifecycle of EB2IC. I don't think anyone anticipated such early strikes by CO. Q was to his credit, the only person, so confidently saying that by March 2012, dates will move to March 2008 at least.
Suppose dates stop max around 1st July 2008 this FY, and due to eventual backlog level going back to 15k instead of current 25k for EB1, EB2ROW, SOFAD is around 24k, because new incoming reduces a bit avoiding most bad impact of backlog reduction. Then Folks in December 2007 to January 2008 would be borderline on GC issuance for FY 2012.
I have seen that PERMs get thinner in mid 2008 to beginning 2009, and even thinner in 2009 to mid 2010.
July 2008 to December 2008 , average PERM = 2068, 6 months 12.5k
January 2009 to June 2010, average PERM = 1644, 18 months 29.5k
So even FY 2013 will have great chance to move at least until December 2008 even considering CO has Jan 2008 to June 2008 in his kitty already, to make for next 25k + buffer.
If FY 2014, Eb1 EB2 ROW demand remains same, we assume backlog reduction already taken place by now, next move for SOFAD and buffer, should take you to June 2010.
I think regardless of how much buffer CO has left, he will magically find ways to circumvent problems, and do movements in time.
Notice that if current situations remain same, then wait time of EB2IC to apply is coming down from 5 years to 4 years to almost 3.x years in coming and current FYs.