EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

NIW is not as difficult as EB1 but it is still difficult to get through. I have many physician friends who work in underserved area. In fact, I am currently also working in an underserved area. Some of those friends have successfully obtained NIW. In fact, one of my colleague got her GC and she was in EB2 NIW category.

When I asked my lawyer to file for NIW, he advised me not to go that route because he told me that the criteria are more strict now, lot of RFEs are issued and denial rates are high. The applications are heavily scrutinized according to him.

He told me that NIW applications are compex, require lot of supporting documentations and I-140 approval can take anywhere from 6 months to 18 months under NIW since there is no premium processing available. Labor Certification is obviously waived but in terms of PD, candidates from EB2I and EB2C category do not get any benefit.

The benefits that NIW offer, which I think are huge, are:
1) You don't need an employer to sponsor your application
2) Since it is self-sponsored, jobs can be changed and you can still retain your PD provided you continue to serve in MUS (medically underserved) areas or HPSA (Health Professionals Shortage Areas) for total cumulative of 5 years. (Physicians only)

This is for physicians who usually make a bulk of NIW applications. But these days, that number is also going down compared to previous years because those applications are heavily scrutinized and denial rates are high according to my lawyer.

Now, obviously there is one Anesthesiologist whom I know who got NIW in Kansas City, MO by working in Veterans Affairs (VA) Hospital. If you are working at VA and has supporting letters from there, your chances of getting NIW approved are 99-100%. He had his I-140 approved in 4 months. Kansas City itself has a population of around 4,60,000 with urban area population 1.6 million and metro area population of 2.2 million. This is not an underserved area but than again he was working at VA.

I have another Psychiatrist physician friend who obtained NIW working 2 miles north of Chicago downtown (underserved?????) because that area was designated by Government (CMS - Combined Medicare and Medicaid Services) as medically underserved for psychiatric patient population.

My point is that these applications are tough, but there are legal and administrative loopholes which can work to an individual's benefit to get the approval.

Now, I don't know what are the NIW criteria for other occupations than physicians but anything related to NASA, Military, Government, Serving in minority dominant area (e.g. Native Americans in Appalachian region), National Institute of Health etc. would have higher NIW approval rates.

Thank you for such a detailed information!!

[evoori]

485/EAD/AP reached NSC on 1st Nov. Got receipts by mail on 9th. Online case status says FP notice will be sent within 30 days. Some of my friends are still waiting for receipt even though we couriered our application together and was received at the same time at dallas lockbox..

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

[Jonty Rhodes]

One big lawyer in east coast does this NIW for doctors, if they get the RFE for EB1 NIW, same documentation is submitted again and gets approved. this is not just one case saw few like this :-)

I believe you are talking about Stephen Jefferies & Associates......am I right?

[TeddyKoochu]

One big lawyer in east coast does this NIW for doctors, if they get the RFE for EB1 NIW, same documentation is submitted again and gets approved. this is not just one case saw few like this :-)

There is no good way to find out absolute NIW numbers. However if we do a unfiltered query for EB2 NIW and EB2 the ratio is ~ 5%. So NIW maybe accounting for probably 1500 EB2 approvals in the year. This number is small not negligible though. Most doctors and specialists file for both EB1 and EB2 - NIW but there is another group which has 10 + years other waiver fields who would not qualify for EB1 they would be more likely to go to NIW at times especially in 2008 when labor process was frozen. Imagine 1000 NIW cases were filed just in Jul 2007 that’s an anomaly though, this month’s inventory simply does not add up otherwise.
If you like this representation maybe porting + NIW can be assumed to be equal to 3K + 1.5K lets approximate to 4K per year to be fair.

[wantgcnow]

Guys , any idea till when was the latest NVC receipts sent out? last I know they have sent out until june 2008...

[arikepudi]

May be a dumb question.

My priority date is 19th Dec 2007. Planning to apply ASAP in Dec.

What is the process once you apply for I485. I am seeing Soggadu is asking for FP. After that what ?

When can we expect EAD? When can we expect GC if dates dont retrogress?

[vizcard]

May be a dumb question.

My priority date is 19th Dec 2007. Planning to apply ASAP in Dec.

What is the process once you apply for I485. I am seeing Soggadu is asking for FP. After that what ?

When can we expect EAD? When can we expect GC if dates dont retrogress?

You can checking latest processing times on the USCIS website.

[tackle]

May be a dumb question.

My priority date is 19th Dec 2007. Planning to apply ASAP in Dec.

What is the process once you apply for I485. I am seeing Soggadu is asking for FP. After that what ?

When can we expect EAD? When can we expect GC if dates dont retrogress?

See https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/Dashboar...escriptions.do

[Jonty Rhodes]

Some More Information on NIW Petitions and Current Trend

I found this information regarding NIW. Obviously, this comes from a Law Firm so take it with a grain of salt. But in general, the information is pretty accurate and with this bad economy, NIWs have been scrutinized heavily. Criteria have been made more stringent just like for EB1 candidates in Post-Kazarian era.

I am posting few links which throw more light on these petitions.

http://www.hooyou.com/niw/News&Artic...t05112010.html

http://www.hooyou.com/niw/niw_requirements.html

http://www.hooyou.com/niw/attorney_fee.html

http://www.hooyou.com/niw/news.htm

You can find lots of other information on their website regarding NIW since they claim to specialize in NIW petition. This law firm is considered good and responsive but not the best to file NIW petitions. So decide for yourself.

[druvraj]

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

Teddy,

Will always be waiting for your analysis. I (like you) like to be more on the conservative side. After I am able to file for my 485 I feel like for actual GC, I might have to wait till Oct2012 which is fine by me. Q and other Gurus please when ever you have sufficient data and time update us with your actual GC assurance predictions. My PD btw is feb 08.

[ontheedge]

Teddy, While I have lot of respect for you. I strongly disagree that monthly PERM count could be 2500. I believe going by what I see in trackitt, just around 200 cases filed between July to Nov 01 which could translate to around 1500 EB2 India cases. The total number of EB2 cases for 485 from July to December could be only around 3~4k. I am very eager to look at the parameters you consider when reporting PERM EB2 cases and also translation to 485. I would use factor of 1 as somewhere suggested by Veni.

Let's start getting bullish about the current state of affairs for EB2.

Amen to that. Teddy has always erred on the side of caution, which is really important keeping in mind how the state of affairs have been. But I do feel that it is time to be a tad more optimistic

[tonyromo]

Following Data may help. I used Spec's table to get PERM related data and used jan 5, 2011 inventory to cacluate PERM to I-485 ratio. Surprisingly for 4 out of 6 months ratio is around 1.

Personally I think kd2008's 0.83 is too optimistic while Teddy's 1.35 is too conservative. I would go with 1.1-1.2. Following are some of the reasons of my belief:

- Sudden raise to EB2 NIW in July 2007 can be explained by dates being current. People just apply for I-140 & I-485 together and take chance.
- If we think backlog in PERM might have caused people to apply for NIW, same reasoning apply that people might have jumped because of wait and PERM labor though approved has no meaning.
- There will be demand destruction because of recession and people not having EAD. But I think this will be cancelled out by more and more people applying for EB2 category.
- So all in all this ratio of PERM to I-485 will remain around 1.

PERM-PWMB--Total-PERM--EFF-PERM---EB2-I---EB2-C---EB2-IC---Ratio (EB2IC/EFF-PERM)
Jan---74---------2645--------2571-------1540----654-----2194-----0.85336445
Feb---114--------2273--------2159-------1444----615-----2059-----0.95368226
Mar---150--------2167--------2017-------1404----682-----2086-----1.034209222
Apr---310--------2414--------2104-------1420----609-----2029-----0.964353612
May---698--------2369--------1671-------1070----519-----1589-----0.950927588
Jun---1107-------2623--------1516-------1272----558-----1830-----1.207124011

My factors may just be slightly different. We should all use different factors though based on our beliefs and convictions; however do let me know if any of my factors appear to be unrealistic I will correct them.
- Dependent factor I would use 2.25, More than 1 in 8 families have atleast 1 non US born child.
- .8 I would like to call the carry over factor this should include a) Demand Destruction b) I 140 denial c) New demand coming in via NIW for which there are no perms.
- EB2 - EB3 as .75 this is to account for invisible porting i.e. people post 2007 who are porting who may not ever have been inventoried.
This would make the multiplication factor 2.25 * .8 * .75 = 1.35.
The NIW usage cannot be neglected in Jul 2007 itself looks like 1000 485's may have originated from NIW as it does not require labor and people in 2008 are more likely to use it because perm was frozen. There maybe say 100 - 200 cases coming in every month due to NIW. Traditional porting we can assume at 3K (EB3 prior to Jul 2007).

[march272010]

Yes Sir thats correct

[TeddyKoochu]

Following Data may help. I used Spec's table to get PERM related data and used jan 5, 2011 inventory to cacluate PERM to I-485 ratio. Surprisingly for 4 out of 6 months ratio is around 1.

Personally I think kd2008's 0.83 is too optimistic while Teddy's 1.35 is too conservative. I would go with 1.1-1.2. Following are some of the reasons of my belief:

- Sudden raise to EB2 NIW in July 2007 can be explained by dates being current. People just apply for I-140 & I-485 together and take chance.
- If we think backlog in PERM might have caused people to apply for NIW, same reasoning apply that people might have jumped because of wait and PERM labor though approved has no meaning.
- There will be demand destruction because of recession and people not having EAD. But I think this will be cancelled out by more and more people applying for EB2 category.
- So all in all this ratio of PERM to I-485 will remain around 1.

PERM-PWMB--Total-PERM--EFF-PERM---EB2-I---EB2-C---EB2-IC---Ratio (EB2IC/EFF-PERM)
Jan---74---------2645--------2571-------1540----654-----2194-----0.85336445
Feb---114--------2273--------2159-------1444----615-----2059-----0.95368226
Mar---150--------2167--------2017-------1404----682-----2086-----1.034209222
Apr---310--------2414--------2104-------1420----609-----2029-----0.964353612
May---698--------2369--------1671-------1070----519-----1589-----0.950927588
Jun---1107-------2623--------1516-------1272----558-----1830-----1.207124011

Tony thanks for your analysis. This in fact is the reality, if the real data extrapolates to 1 then that is actually the ratio.
It would implicitly account for everything except for porting.

Going a small step further the there are ~ 28K perms in 2007. This give ~ 2300 per month, adding 200 per month for porting etc will make the figure 2500 per month look very realistic. Note that 2008 earlier months have higher perms especially Jan.
Now let’s try to see the consumption. 8.5K of demand data has disappeared thus far.
The dates have moved from Jul 15th to Mar 15 i.e. 8 months so this makes it ~ 20K.
So probably CO is still short of the 30K mark. This could mean that movement is still possible in the next bulletin assuming he needs to have a small buffer of say 5K. Dates going to June to match the NVC receipts maybe a possibility if CO wants to have a buffer.

[kd2008]

Following Data may help. I used Spec's table to get PERM related data and used jan 5, 2011 inventory to cacluate PERM to I-485 ratio. Surprisingly for 4 out of 6 months ratio is around 1.

Personally I think kd2008's 0.83 is too optimistic while Teddy's 1.35 is too conservative. I would go with 1.1-1.2. Following are some of the reasons of my belief:

- Sudden raise to EB2 NIW in July 2007 can be explained by dates being current. People just apply for I-140 & I-485 together and take chance.
- If we think backlog in PERM might have caused people to apply for NIW, same reasoning apply that people might have jumped because of wait and PERM labor though approved has no meaning.
- There will be demand destruction because of recession and people not having EAD. But I think this will be cancelled out by more and more people applying for EB2 category.
- So all in all this ratio of PERM to I-485 will remain around 1.

PERM-PWMB--Total-PERM--EFF-PERM---EB2-I---EB2-C---EB2-IC---Ratio (EB2IC/EFF-PERM)
Jan---74---------2645--------2571-------1540----654-----2194-----0.85336445
Feb---114--------2273--------2159-------1444----615-----2059-----0.95368226
Mar---150--------2167--------2017-------1404----682-----2086-----1.034209222
Apr---310--------2414--------2104-------1420----609-----2029-----0.964353612
May---698--------2369--------1671-------1070----519-----1589-----0.950927588
Jun---1107-------2623--------1516-------1272----558-----1830-----1.207124011

Tony, based on the evidence presented by you, I would agree with you and say that my ratio is optimistic. The reason I was going for a ratio less than one is that in the last four years their has not been the support of EAD which was there for pre-July2007 filers, the recession and people going back & that wasn't the case in pre-July2007, people filing multiple PERMS due to job changes without an EAD.

More people filing in EB2 is already accounted in the higher ratio of EB2:EB3 and should not be used to compensate for demand destruction.

In spite of these factors, I agree with you and say, the ratio to be taken is 1.0

[krishnav]

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

Hi Soggadu,

I received my receipt yes'day. Application recieved - Nov 1st, Notice date - Nov 4th.
I am still waiting for Biometrics notice. Hopefully I will have it in my mailbox today (or soon).

[suninphx]

Tony thanks for your analysis. This in fact is the reality, if the real data extrapolates to 1 then that is actually the ratio.
It would implicitly account for everything except for porting.

Going a small step further the there are ~ 28K perms in 2007. This give ~ 2300 per month, adding 200 per month for porting etc will make the figure 2500 per month look very realistic. Note that 2008 earlier months have higher perms especially Jan.
Now let’s try to see the consumption. 8.5K of demand data has disappeared thus far.
The dates have moved from Jul 15th to Mar 15 i.e. 8 months so this makes it ~ 20K.
So probably CO is still short of the 30K mark. This could mean that movement is still possible in the next bulletin assuming he needs to have a small buffer of say 5K. Dates going to June to match the NVC receipts maybe a possibility if CO wants to have a buffer.

And this means we are looking at actual GC issue dates around Mar 2008 by end of FY2012?

[TeddyKoochu]

And this means we are looking for actual GC issue dates around Mar 2008 by end of FY2012?

Yes absolutely if we see 30K SOFAD then it is entirely possible. On Trackitt I see very few EB2 ROW approvals especially, maybe we need more observation time. The only thing that can cause any decline to SOFAD is the the I140 backlog (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) right now its 10K above last years levels, if any special attempts are made to reduce / clean it out. I believe that there is a 50-50 chance that even the next bulletin will see forward movement for EB2 I/C assuming that the 30K mark has been barely reached.

[suninphx]

Yes absolutely if we see 30K SOFAD then it is entirely possible. On Trackitt I see very few EB2 ROW approvals especially, maybe we need more observation time. The only thing that can cause any decline to SOFAD is the the I140 backlog (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) right now its 10K above last years levels, if any special attempts are made to reduce / clean it out. I believe that there is a 50-50 chance that even the next bulletin will see forward movement for EB2 I/C assuming that the 30K mark has been barely reached.

And is there any way to figure out how many of those are EB2/3 IC? ( I assume it includes both Eb2/EB3?)

[wantgcnow]

Yes absolutely if we see 30K SOFAD then it is entirely possible. On Trackitt I see very few EB2 ROW approvals especially, maybe we need more observation time. The only thing that can cause any decline to SOFAD is the the I140 backlog (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) right now its 10K above last years levels, if any special attempts are made to reduce / clean it out. I believe that there is a 50-50 chance that even the next bulletin will see forward movement for EB2 I/C assuming that the 30K mark has been barely reached.

Teddy, how much forward movement you are expecting to see if 30K has not been reached?

[TeddyKoochu]

And is there any way to figure out how many of those are EB2/3 IC? ( I assume it includes both Eb2/EB3?)

The dashboard does not give that kind of visibility, you can assume even spread. But if the overall figure is higher then proportionately the figures maybe higher. Also probably since EB1 cases are taking longer there maybe higher proportion for these. Other that the I140 backlog there is nothing that should cause any significant SOFAD decline. On another note that is why it is easier to approve EB2 I/C cases because the I140 is already approved. A very key indicator will be when we start to see PWMB case approvals filed last month.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, how much forward movement you are expecting to see if 30K has not been reached?

This is entirely speculative, however I would hope that atleast 5K is the buffer this is assuming that we really see 30K SOFAD; this would mean 2 more months of movement. Let’s wait to see the demand data in a few days this will help to solidify some of the theory to reality. If there are approvals in between that is cases that never make it to the demand data we will have to find some way to adjust.

[suninphx]

This is entirely speculative, however I would hope that atleast 5K is the buffer this is assuming that we really see 30K SOFAD; this would mean 2 more months of movement. Let’s wait to see the demand data in a few days this will help to solidify some of the theory to reality. If there are approvals in between that is cases that never make it to the demand data we will have to find some way to adjust.

Based on Spec's PERM spreadsheet there are around 35-36 K PERMs from Apr 15 2007 - Jul 01 2008. So if historical multiple of '1' holds good and assuming they want build a pipeline of 35 K then this seems posible.

[gchopeful123]

Soggadu Bhai,
My lawyer had sent docs to USCIS on 10/31. No receipt notices yet. When did you file yours?

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

[GreenReddy]

Hi Guys,

I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.

Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???