Q, any info from your src? Just wondering.
Q, any info from your src? Just wondering.
You are correct the demand data is indeed very interesting. Any how they are committing large numbers to October approvals. I agree with you that the demand data math does not work out perfectly for India and China in terms of reductions, it maybe a case of applications being denied or abandoned, just that the demand data has been cleaned up now. Chances of these being last year’s numbers is less because they announced that they are over.Originally Posted by skpanda
I wish they make it current...
i am increasingly getting convinced that the Demand data reduction is from FY 2011 quota. In this case, there is nothing stopping to make EB2IC current and have peace of mind for next 4 years (No guessing/retrogession).
Good Luck to All!
DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.
So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.
Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.
I don't understand what is going on.
What Mr.CO is doing is totally unpredictable!
Sometimes he says we should get 200 per month, sometimes he says we can get 5600 per month. What is his logic behind all these?
He is a crazy man indeed!
Hmm.. valid point on the announcement of Visas were over mid Sept. I forgot that!
They have assigned 5.6k quota to EB2 IC. they can do legally but can't go more than 28.6 % of total EB2 in Q1. so Nov will hold them back marching forward. Either DEC or JAN (depend where they can allocate Qtr spillover visas , either in last month or first month of next qtr ) they will make a one shot final big move. I predict it will go all the way up to June - Sep 2008 then.
I might be wrong but my understanding from the visa bulletin is that it cannot be current and the reason is based on the following extract from the demand data
"If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and there is only demand for 1,000 applicants, the category will be "Current”. Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established."
Apart from this what is throwing me off is this statement.
""The chart below shows the estimated total number of visas available for each employment preference category and country for fiscal year 2012."
To me it seems the demand for 2012 is only 3k for EB2IC which suggests that the demand is significantly reduced because of left overs from 2011. I guess Q is right and seems like there is an increase in SOFAD by 6-7 K.
I called my lawyer about the possibility of my PD (02/22/2008) becoming current this month. The paralegal said that they discussed the Demand Data in their meeting this morning. Her advice was along the lines of what gc_usa has stated. There is a very slim chance of it becoming current this month but it would be current by the end of Q2-2012, for sure, thereby allowing enough time the processing of the GC by the end of the FY.
Based on what I have read on this forum, I already (sort of) knew that. I felt reassured by her "professional advice" but then she dropped the bomb of uncertainty "You never know".
Back to square one.. Visa bulletin time.. keep your hopes high but be prepared for a heart break..
Is it possible that many of the labor substituions filed with June-July2007 time frame got rejected?
You are correct about the rules, but what is happening is interesting. Right now the only way to gauge how many numbers they have actually allocated is by the number of people who became current in Oct and are being approved. I just saw 2 approvals on IV. If we see approvals for those who are current it’s an indicator that that part of the law has been condoned and they have allocated the entire cap in October itself. Lets wait and watch, the VB should be out by Friday.
Thanks Champu for confirming.
I am much more confident now. We heard from some site other day , one of top lawyer also mentioned same, I got news from other resource too that date are not moving much in Nov. In DEC and JAN it will. DEC is 6th month for people who got NVC fee notices up to Jan - Mar 2008. Chances are almost 100% for Jan - March 2008 for DEC unless EB1 demand spike up and DOS can allocate only 2k spillover from EB5. They need at least 1.5k from EB1 after Q1 spillover.
On the labor substitutions people would retain their old PD, but even I believe that the number of denials or abandonment is high and part of the reduction can be attributed to data cleanup. Some people may have also upgraded to EB1 or been approved through their spouses.
Look at the official instructions for filing 485 to clarify your doubts. I checked and it didn't look like they ask us to submit paystubs or w2s. But don't take my word for it. Go check it yourself.
Hi gc_usa,
I do not think this number belongs to 2012 quota and the reason is if that would have been the case then China demand would have been much less. since China demand is not reduced significantly so seems like this might be from fy2011 as sofad or as someone mentioned due to rejections filed in that period. your thoughts..
Thanks
China has higher demand in July 2007 , almost three time than any other month
Interesting...does chinese know that it is going to be current at that time in 2007? or r they labor substitutions?
What is the approval trend on trackitt?
I asked a question of this kind last month itself, like what if there are some leftout visas from 2011 with no Row demand ready to go in hand . But Veni replied me, it is not possible to assign them to PDs which are not current.
This scenario of Dos Vs USCIS game is like people selling cattle in village market , closing both the parties' hands with a cloth and counting fingers (seen in movies). Nobody knows what is happening whatever it is .
Lawyers ask for it to show that you have been continuously employed. At least that is what my lawyer said.
A lot Chinese did NIW then.
The reason for that is there are a huge number of NIW EB2 for China. Many post docs filed EB2 in that month. As what I said before, there are tons of post docs from China.These guys were not qualified for EB1, so they rushed into NIW. For Indian EB2, most of them are working professionals in companies.
hmm...unfortunately/fortunately without post doc most of us are not allowed to do them....NIW... keeping india numbers low...
Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.
When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.
When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.
What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.
Lol... qblogfan, I really love the way you are constantly after Mr. CO
Good luck to you and us all for the Nov VB.
Qblogfan...looks like you can write a biography on CO... lol...
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