EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[leo07]

Is it possible that the visas for these approvals that we are seeing have been already allocated previous quarter? It's just that we are seeing the actual approvals now( a month later).

I believe 6k has been used up for sure, its upto CO to account for them as either as 6K totally as annual allocation or 30% of 6K + Spillover as per some rules in the first 3 quarters only 30% can be used. Either way it’s very good news for all of us. We now need to see PWMB approvals to strengthen this theory.

[TeddyKoochu]

So this should reduce average wait time for EB2IC by around 6 months?

Yes definitely otherwise all these cases would have had to wait till the last quarter, but let’s wait for more to happen. Iam basing it on the fact that 6K has definitely been used up. We need to be cognizant about the consumption as well now not really for intake purpose yet but from the annual SOFAD perspective.

[nishant2200]

Many many people like us just spending hours like days and every minute tension when the VB will be out and what the content.
This can be done very easily from CO point of view.

yeah man, who knows, he might be already gone home from work. or taken a sick day

Although not to further increase hopes, I think I am already guilty of that a bit, I have seen bulletins get released around 2 PM PST.

[nishant2200]

But the dates for which they are being alloacated were not current previous quarter. that's the big gotcha, unless they are bending laws.

Is it possible that the visas for these approvals that we are seeing have been already allocated previous quarter? It's just that we are seeing the actual approvals now( a month later).

[TeddyKoochu]

Is it possible that the visas for these approvals that we are seeing have been already allocated previous quarter. It's just that we are seeing the actual approvals now( a month later)?

Refer to the following post. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2246#post12246 -- POST # 1249.

- On Trackitt the number of EB2 ROW and EB1 numbers in both Aug and Spe are closer to double than usual. This is indicative of actual high number of approvals in these months. Also note that May, June approvals of I140 were very high. I have noticed one thing that whenever CO announces that huge numbers are available like in May even USCIS goes into high gear on 140 and thereby diminishes the actual movement that CO would have done as he is bound to go by USCIS input at that time.
- CO commented in the bulletins about the heavy EB2 ROW and EB1 demands.
- In 2007 the reverse had happened the cap numbers were allocated to the cases when the date became current actual approvals came months later, here however the cap numbers cannot be legally allocated to the case as Apr 15 - Jul 15th were not current in the last 2 months of FY 2011.
- Even now there is a very high number of people in the inventory for both EB2 ROW and EB1 and with I485 processing fast these cases can be virtually made ready for approval in a month’s time.
- For the last 2 years USCIS has been announcing in early September that numbers are over this means that they did a neat job.
- In the inventory published on Oct 01 the demand for EB2 I/C for Apr - Jul is present in full and not reduced strength.
- Effectively 6K numbers have been consumes which is virtually equal to I/C annual cap. The demand data for Oct 2011 showed 2.5K as opposed to 8.5K in Sep 2011 the numbers are normally reduced in the demand data for the month in which the numbers are actually allocated.
All these points strongly indicate that the cutover from 2011 to 2012 was a clean one and all the approvals that came in Oct 2012 are from 2012 cap. I hope all these factors are convincing enough that these are indeed 2012 numbers.

Most likely IMHO these are all from the 2012 cap.

[nishant2200]

Not to worry, it was logical in terms of last bulletin' release

yeah, I think the number 4 messed us up. it just sounds so early

he was ok with the 5th, but not the 4th.

Anyways, now I think everyone understands why I was saying we shall cleanup thread after the Dec VB pans out

[leo07]

I agree that it would be slight bending of the law; But within the framework though. Like he had visas in hand by September 30th and Pre-Adj applications ready.

But the dates for which they are being alloacated were not current previous quarter. that's the big gotcha, unless they are bending laws.

[veni001]

I agree that it would be slight bending of the law; But within the framework though. Like he had visas in hand by September 30th and Pre-Adj applications ready.

But the dates for which they are being alloacated were not current previous quarter. that's the big gotcha, unless they are bending laws.

Actually issue of VISA counts, not allocation.

[TeddyKoochu]

Actually issue of VISA counts, not allocation.

Veni, I understand that your advice is that all the current approvals are from the 2012 cap. What are your thoughts is this QSP or just usage of the annual cap or a mix of both.

[pdmay2008]

Now GC processing is transparent than before, why CO can't tell up front when the VB will be out instead just placing "Coming Soon"

We are not there yet. It will take couple of years to reach that point.

[leo07]

What you described makes mathematical sense Little too risky from CO's point of view, for allocating all 6k in the first quarter and opening a huge door for his opponents to attack him for the rest of 9 months.

Refer to the following post. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2246#post12246 -- POST # 1249.

- On Trackitt the number of EB2 ROW and EB1 numbers in both Aug and Spe are closer to double than usual. This is indicative of actual high number of approvals in these months. Also note that May, June approvals of I140 were very high. I have noticed one thing that whenever CO announces that huge numbers are available like in May even USCIS goes into high gear on 140 and thereby diminishes the actual movement that CO would have done as he is bound to go by USCIS input at that time.
- CO commented in the bulletins about the heavy EB2 ROW and EB1 demands.
- In 2007 the reverse had happened the cap numbers were allocated to the cases when the date became current actual approvals came months later, here however the cap numbers cannot be legally allocated to the case as Apr 15 - Jul 15th were not current in the last 2 months of FY 2011.
- Even now there is a very high number of people in the inventory for both EB2 ROW and EB1 and with I485 processing fast these cases can be virtually made ready for approval in a month’s time.
- For the last 2 years USCIS has been announcing in early September that numbers are over this means that they did a neat job.
- In the inventory published on Oct 01 the demand for EB2 I/C for Apr - Jul is present in full and not reduced strength.
- Effectively 6K numbers have been consumes which is virtually equal to I/C annual cap. The demand data for Oct 2011 showed 2.5K as opposed to 8.5K in Sep 2011 the numbers are normally reduced in the demand data for the month in which the numbers are actually allocated.
All these points strongly indicate that the cutover from 2011 to 2012 was a clean one and all the approvals that came in Oct 2012 are from 2012 cap. I hope all these factors are convincing enough that these are indeed 2012 numbers.

Most likely IMHO these are all from the 2012 cap.

[qblogfan]

Today alone I saw more than 20 approvals on MITBBS. These guys have PD after 7/15. Looks like they are approving all the cases between 7/15-10/15.

[sha_kus]

what is happening? what ever is happening let it happen it is good for now...

Today alone I saw more than 20 approvals on MITBBS. These guys have PD after 7/15. Looks like they are approving all the cases between 7/15-10/15.

[immitime]

Now GC processing is transparent than before, why CO can't tell up front when the VB will be out instead just placing "Coming Soon"

on a funnier note.

"if that is so Doctors have lesser business"! and might close down their clinics.

Prediction to some extend can be accurate but it all depends on filings from Nov1st to Nov 10th, that effects the date as all knows.

I wish Let all of us in this lengthy journey get the GC ASAP!

[TeddyKoochu]

What you described makes mathematical sense Little too risky from CO's point of view, for allocating all 6k in the first quarter and opening a huge door for his opponents to attack him for the rest of 9 months.

Thanks, it maybe 30% of 6K which is legally allowed and QSP which was always legal and never done. using numbers from the previous year may be completely against he law. He may have a tough time in any audit explaining that.

[qblogfan]

at least 20 primary applicants got green and that translates around 40 visa numbers. all of them are between 7/15-7/31.

I think they are approving now. A huge wave of GC is coming.......

what is happening? what ever is happening let it happen it is good for now...

[TeddyKoochu]

Today alone I saw more than 20 approvals on MITBBS. These guys have PD after 7/15. Looks like they are approving all the cases between 7/15-10/15.

Woow !, thats great news, are here any PWMB case approvals as well for people who just filed last month.

[cbpds1]

maybe some IT guy in USCIS removed the I/C filter in the internal application by mistake, so they removed the restriction b4 HR 3012 is passed

at least 20 primary applicants got green and that translates around 40 visa numbers. all of them are between 7/15-7/31.

I think they are approving now. A huge wave of GC is coming.......

[pdmay2008]

on a funnier note.

"if that is so Doctors have lesser business"! and might close down their clinics.

Prediction to some extend can be accurate but it all depends on filings from Nov1st to Nov 10th, that effects the date as all knows.

I wish Let all of us in this lengthy journey get the GC ASAP!

I don't think CO can guesstimate the demand based on Nov 1st to Nov 10th. So many people are in hurry to apply as the doors are opened after a long time, many would make sure their application reaches there by Nov 1, at the same time several people are not ready with their docs(birth certificates etc...).

The lesser the number between Nov 1st and VB release date the more the chance of Advancing the date >Mar 1st 2008.

[Kanmani]

The upcoming IC Demand Data is expected to show Zero documentarily qualified .

What do you guys think?

[gc0907]

T,
Wouldn't that be highly unlikely? because anyone who filed last month needs to go through fingerprints etc. right? And wouldn't that mean the processing time of 485 to be about a month which is not realistic?

Woow !, thats great news, are here any PWMB case approvals as well for people who just filed last month.

[pdmay2008]

I don't think it will be zero. As CO wants to play safe game by having some documentarily qualified IC demand. Otherwise he would be questioned why he did not open the doors earlier.

[TeddyKoochu]

T,
Wouldn't that be highly unlikely? because anyone who filed last month needs to go through fingerprints etc. right? And wouldn't that mean the processing time of 485 to be about a month which is not realistic?

A lot of people in that group have had FP done. Some PWMB cases in the past have been approved in 2 months. So at this rate we might see some pwmb approvals at the end of this month.

[nishant2200]

The upcoming IC Demand Data is expected to show Zero documentarily qualified .

What do you guys think?

If he indeed respecting the move and any PWMB are not qualified in 2 months yet, this indeed may come true, at least ending towards 0.

Honestly guys , what's cooking, what the heck is going on.

[nishant2200]

I don't think CO can guesstimate the demand based on Nov 1st to Nov 10th. So many people are in hurry to apply as the doors are opened after a long time, many would make sure their application reaches there by Nov 1, at the same time several people are not ready with their docs(birth certificates etc...).

The lesser the number between Nov 1st and VB release date the more the chance of Advancing the date >Mar 1st 2008.

long time back, I clearly remmber, bieber had said that if people don't apply initially, they may get cheated to think very few applications, and open floodgates.

I think its not to estimate total number of applications, but maybe to make sure, that the trend they are expecting is holding. for example, if they receive 12k applications from Nov 1st to 10th, and their expectation for the total move was 10k in Nov VB, and 10k in Dec VB, then they may extrapolate that the Nov VB will in fact be getting them closer to 15k, and they only need 5k from Dec VB.