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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #1676
    It 2:14 PM EST and still no Dec VB.. I think we need to wait till monday or tuesday :-(

  2. #1677
    Sensei familyguy's Avatar
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    Just curious... are there any left overs from FB (family based)?

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Yeah, that's what Teddy is also pointing out. So for sure, at least I feel, that we are being given some sort of SO, what kind don't know.
    EB2 I, PD: Jan 10 2008
    TSC | RD: 01-Dec-2011 | ND: 05-Dec-2011 | FP Done on:01/09/2012 | EAD Received on: 01/26/2012, 485 CPO received on: 02/13/2012, Card Received on: 02/17/2012

  3. #1678
    As per wikipedia Nov1 is All Saints day and Nov2 is All souls Day
    The former is holiday on websites of Belgium,Phillipines,Ghana to name a few and I saw the later is for Brazil. Those are regarded as local holidays in the respective countries.


    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    can you enlighten what this holidays were for and which country consulate you saw. just to give better idea.

  4. #1679
    Nope - we are at 140K EB Visas this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by familyguy View Post
    Just curious... are there any left overs from FB (family based)?
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  5. #1680
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    Nov 1 and Nov 2 are Christian holidays ...which is why Halloween is Oct 31st. Spirits are out on Halloween... pray for them on Nov 1 and 2.

    ... love the history.

  6. #1681
    Sensei familyguy's Avatar
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    imdeng, i meant... are there any spill over (left over visas) from Family Based quota from last year, which is FY 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Nope - we are at 140K EB Visas this year.
    EB2 I, PD: Jan 10 2008
    TSC | RD: 01-Dec-2011 | ND: 05-Dec-2011 | FP Done on:01/09/2012 | EAD Received on: 01/26/2012, 485 CPO received on: 02/13/2012, Card Received on: 02/17/2012

  7. #1682

    I485 Inventory

    I-485 Inventory got posted in murthy website...

    http://www.murthy.com/news/n_485o11.html

  8. #1683
    I think its curtains for today. No demand data put up, I highly doubt he will directly publish the VB, especially since he is doing it early, then he would like to show some thought went behind it.

    Also the 4th sounds very early, almost a hack job, I did random clicks on previous years bulletins, and really none were this early.

  9. #1684
    Pandit Eb2_Dec07's Avatar
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    Guys there is a comment on the US non immigrants blogspot and someone posted a comment about VB release date . Quote " I just got off the phone. Demand data will be released on Monday and bulletin on Wednesday. Enjoy your weekend. " . Not sure how viable this person is , but wanted to share this to y all anyway.

    This weekend surely will give me sleepless nights of anticipation with out bounds for what may come next . Good luck to all of us who are expecting to be current .

  10. #1685
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Teddy as per Q, the QSP can be applied anytime during the quarter, at the end of the quarter (for first three), no category should exceed 27% of total allocation possible. I am not sure about law verbiage behind it, just citing from Q's posts. Maybe Q should re-affirm this statement.
    Nishant thanks; I did not know that QSP can be applied anytime in that case it is actually happening. This will bring early relief to all. So definitely it’s QSP or its variant or avatar but it’s something good happening for sure. The real test will be when we start to see PWMB approvals for those who filed last month.
    Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 11-04-2011 at 01:39 PM.

  11. #1686
    Quote Originally Posted by chini9 View Post
    I-485 Inventory got posted in murthy website...

    http://www.murthy.com/news/n_485o11.html
    Why does Murthy posts these kinds reliable information very late. At this minute every one is waiting for Demand data and VB, No one is waiting for this information at all. But Murthy posts this late news to drag attention.

  12. #1687
    Nishant,

    Murthy just posted I-485 inventory data for October 2011. Any guesses what will be the cut off date based on that.

  13. #1688
    Quote Originally Posted by vchirakala View Post
    Nishant,

    Murthy just posted I-485 inventory data for October 2011. Any guesses what will be the cut off date based on that.
    friend, murthy is late, people on this forum already pounced it on long time back.

    I will tell you what murthy article doesnt say. The inventory shows big year over year increase in backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW, pointing to decrease in SOFAD by at least 8k for this year. But that assumes:
    1. 140 approval rate is what we think it is, if it is lower, the backlog reduction will reduce the 485 but in terms of denials, not approvals
    2. this year's incoming demand for EB1, EB2ROW will remain the same. It may get lower, which in case may balance the backlog reduction
    3. USCIS will indeed to backlog reduction effort. they may or may not. if CO does QSP, then only in the quarter or next few they do this effort, we would be impacted, not throughout year. So I hope he does QSP.

    As far as cut off dates, I have always mentioned, CO should look at past trend and grab minimum that plus buffer, and disregard the backlog kind of factors for now. He like us does not know future, and has to be safe side.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 11-04-2011 at 01:46 PM.
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  14. #1689
    Quote Originally Posted by chini9 View Post
    I-485 Inventory got posted in murthy website...

    http://www.murthy.com/news/n_485o11.html
    "More and More EB2 Approvals from India and China

    It should be noted that, in October and November 2011, the cutoff dates for EB2 India and China have continued to advance to November 1, 2007. This has resulted in many EB2 approvals from India and China with 2007 priority dates in October 2011, and is expected to continue in November 2011. The EB2 India and China inventory for cases with priority dates prior to August 2007 is therefore expected to continue to decline. "

    Does not mention where the visas are coming from.
    EB2-I, PD April 08, 08

  15. #1690
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    I can see approvals for PDs 07/27/2007, 07/31/2007 , what is this actually denote?

    I really dont understand. These PDs are current from November 01 2011, are they not ?

    Where are these Visa numbers coming from ?
    Kanmani this means that CO is allocating numbers to the batch for the Nov VB it’s a very positive sign that numbers are being allocated freely. We know that most of the preadjudicated cases before Jul 15th are approved already. I believe that if the approvals keep coming like this it is some kind of spillover or excess allocation as they have crossed 6K (I+ C Allocation). Note China’s Jul 2007 inventory is higher than India and EB2 I +C inventory excluding PWMB’s for Jul 2007 is more than 3K.

  16. #1691
    Quote Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07 View Post
    Guys there is a comment on the US non immigrants blogspot and someone posted a comment about VB release date . Quote " I just got off the phone. Demand data will be released on Monday and bulletin on Wednesday. Enjoy your weekend. " . Not sure how viable this person is , but wanted to share this to y all anyway.

    This weekend surely will give me sleepless nights of anticipation with out bounds for what may come next . Good luck to all of us who are expecting to be current .
    I wonder with whom did he speak on phone..

  17. #1692
    Teddy

    So still my theory of left over visas from 2011 is ruled out right?

  18. #1693
    guess he is just creating a buzz for some traffic to his website. I have seen bulletins released at even 2:10 PM PST

    Quote Originally Posted by wantgcnow View Post
    I wonder with whom did he speak on phone..

  19. #1694
    Quote Originally Posted by cbpds1 View Post
    guess he is just creating a buzz for some traffic to his website. I have seen bulletins released at even 2:10 PM PST
    yes..makes sense

  20. #1695
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Teddy

    So still my theory of left over visas from 2011 is ruled out right?
    I believe 6k has been used up for sure, its upto CO to account for them as either as 6K totally as annual allocation or 30% of 6K + Spillover as per some rules in the first 3 quarters only 30% can be used. Either way it’s very good news for all of us. We now need to see PWMB approvals to strengthen this theory.

  21. #1696
    Quote Originally Posted by cbpds1 View Post
    guess he is just creating a buzz for some traffic to his website. I have seen bulletins released at even 2:10 PM PST
    Hope he did not speak with CO. For now probability of VB today has gone down, that's what I can say.

  22. #1697
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    I believe 6k has been used up for sure, its upto CO to account for them as either as 6K totally as annual allocation or 30% of 6K + Spillover as per some rules in the first 3 quarters only 30% can be used. Either way it’s very good news for all of us. We now need to see PWMB approvals to strengthen this theory.
    So this should reduce average wait time for EB2IC by around 6 months?

  23. #1698
    Quote Originally Posted by pdmay2008 View Post
    Hope he did not speak with CO. For now probability of VB today has gone down, that's what I can say.
    If its thats easy to reach CO and everyone would have called and asked him about VB

  24. #1699
    Now GC processing is transparent than before, why CO can't tell up front when the VB will be out instead just placing "Coming Soon"
    EB2-I, PD April 08, 08

  25. #1700
    Quote Originally Posted by venkimakthal View Post
    Now GC processing is transparent than before, why CO can't tell up front when the VB will be out instead just placing "Coming Soon"
    I totally agree with you...instead of "coming soon" banner they can as well put a date

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