Nishant, well said, I believe they are just going by the actuals based on 485 filing. The cumulative total that maybe there in the system as of now would be 2.5K (Preadjudicated) + 4K (PWMB) + 10K new filings about to come in Nov. However we must note that 6K of the cap has been burn out as part of the approvals already.Originally Posted by nishant2200
Teddy - you mean 10k filings from Jul 15 - Nov 1 2007?
Yes that is Ball Park what should come into the system. So Available Numbers = 16.5K + 3.5K (Porting) = 20K and numbers used = 6K, the October approvals are definitely from the 2012 cap. Credit to Nishant’s analysis porting is not that significant.
Ok that number sounds unrealistic at least for me.
Is there any official source which confirmed from where Oct numbers are coming?
Teddy, thanks. One observation though, now more and more people are becoming eligible for porting as they have gained in work experience years as well as some of them may have started to pursue masters courses. In my company, one guy successfully completed his MBA, and ported from Eb3 to Eb2, he has October 2007 PD, and is current next month. So I would not throw away the 6k worst estimate of porting, it may very well come true for upcoming year.
With lag of 5 years for EB2IC this theory was always true, isn't it? E.g. person who had EB3I date of 2005 is eligible to port for about an year now, as per above theory.
10K from 3.5 months. Thats kind of high. Demand data of no previous month has shown 3K demand/month (except July). If my memory serves me then I think in general it has been around 2K to 2.3K per month. Any reason why you think that wont hold true?
Yes, I too think the estimation is too high.
I agree with Gclongwait's range of 2 to 2.3K at the max.
With each passing year, more people in the pool are being eligible. They are also being presented with reports like wait is 70 years. They are seeing huge movement in EB2 I/C this calendar year, it's a great motivator. Also consider that people are doing porting even with 2007, 2008 PDs. 6k is absolute worst case, to use in analysis.
The movement DOS is doing right now, is simply going by past trend and filling kitty of 30-35k applications, and rightly they are not considering porting, 140 backlog, pending inventory for EB1 EB2ROW (Oct 2011 inventory shows more stuff than Oct 2010 inventory). Early movement was always better as said earlier, and that's happening, and is a golden opportunity to get one foot in the system.
If I use Spec's tables, subtract from Nov 1 2007 the 15 July 2007, I get 8,641
Let's wait for Teddy to get back though.
In my opinion, in absence of official source info, we should think that the numbers come from FY 2012 cap only.
5-6k is a huge number to do the trick of assigning number in September for approval in October, if that's even legal, Ron Gotcher doesnt agree, neither does Spectator I would like to think. Especially if you are going to claim visas ran out in half the month, and keep EB1, EB2 ROW demand waiting for that. They even put the verbiage in that memo to USCIS that the abrupt exhaustion is due to sudden demand you showed to us in August.
Nishanth,
Do you know what the exact diff is in EN1 and EB2 ROW between Oct 2011 inventory and Oct 2010 inventory? If you already have the numbers it will be good.
That means, do you say dates will not move to max Jan'2008 as you were telling previously? it sounds not good hope for eb2 untill 2013 Jan
Last edited by march_2008; 10-28-2011 at 07:52 PM.
your lawyer is right.
My lawyer also didnot cite tax returns in the list of supporting documents.
We will have to agree to disagree again. I am not sure if Ron agrees or not and He has been wrong multiple times in the past. I will wait for more concrete official proof.
I disagree. I don't think things have changed so drastically that porting will increase 40%.
Not sure why yiu made point about why\how DOS moving dates. I have a feeling that they are moving on a well thought out path.Remember they have much more accurate data than what we have.
Last edited by suninphx; 10-28-2011 at 09:05 PM.
That's for EB2IC and EB3IC combined right? Teddy can easily produce 10K number out of this. With his conservative approach.
From Fragomen
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=1376
thank you buddy!
familyguy, I think now you can celebrate.
suninphx, this is for EB2IC only.
sure, I was just putting absolute worst case number as I said in post. It only takes around 2900 people to find eligible job offers to make 6k porting.
the point about moving dates was made so that we don't think that this indicates porting is not considered a problem at all. Even in this latest news alerts they have indicated that lot of people are upgrading from eb3 to eb2. They are just rightly ignoring all the variables which can change throughout the year, and just looking at past trend.
I am glad you disagree, it brings out good points and discussion. I dont think anyone of us here claim to know the truth.
Not sure if we are looking at same table. I am referring to this which has both eb2 and eb3 for IC.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...thly-Breakdown)
suninphx I am looking at:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011
I see that this is a newer version of table than I had and as per this the difference between 15th july 2007 and 1st november is a bit less by like 20. It's still 8.6k.
No one can deny that porting is there and will continue.
My point is as years go by we should be able to narrow down gap between actual and worst case scenario. Gap for this year is 42%. I have no problem with some one being conservative , but opinions needs to be refined based on the actual picture which is not happening IMHO
As far as comments from DOS about porting goes - you know very well that they are not consistent at all about their opinion in this regard.
Sure. I like to go with PERM data and calculate myself. I can make my own assumptions in that case. I am getting around 8000 which is much less than what Teddy projected.
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