EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[pch053]

Informative article from murthy.com; if this holds true then EB2-I/C PDs might move well past mid-2008 during 2011 - 2012. The good news is that they are expecting forward movement in Jan and Feb'12 bulletins too.

[grnwtg]

Hi codesmith,

yes, those application means I485 applied ( i think it does not matter if I140 approved or not, Guru's correct me if i am wrong).
and your second question, 485 approved means GC is almost done except that you need card physically.

Hi Q/Nishant and experts,
I'm referring to Oct 2011 Inventory Report

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...001%202011.pdf

USCIS fqa says this report is : The “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” displays the total number of pending adjustment of status applications,
Whats does it mean ? I140 approved and 485 filed and still not approved
or 485 approved but actual GC not done ?

Why do we see numbers even from yr 2000 ? What does it signify ?

[codesmith]

If it means 485 approved but GC is not yet handed over.. then is there a reason why we have numbers starting as old as 1998?

Hi codesmith,

yes, those application means I485 applied ( i think it does not matter if I140 approved or not, Guru's correct me if i am wrong).
and your second question, 485 approved means GC is almost done except that you need card physically.

[zztopfan]

Informative article from murthy.com; if this holds true then EB2-I/C PDs might move well past mid-2008 during 2011 - 2012. The good news is that they are expecting forward movement in Jan and Feb'12 bulletins too.

Actually Ron Gotcher says the same too. You can check out his forum to confirm this. As per Ron Gotcher, the PD could move to late 2008 by Spring.

[suninphx]

http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions

This is significant.. given that they are rarely in prediction game and won't comment unless thay have definative source

[yesman]

Could you please provide a link to Ron's forum post. I'm not able to locate it. Thanks!

Actually Ron Gotcher says the same too. You can check out his forum to confirm this. As per Ron Gotcher, the PD could move to late 2008 by Spring.

[zztopfan]

Could you please provide a link to Ron's forum post. I'm not able to locate it. Thanks!

Here is direct quote from his forum

"Re: Charles Oppenheim : EB-2 China and India will advance significantly
As I have been writing for the past couple of months, the Visa Office needs to see to it that as many green card applications (both AOS and CP) are filed as early in the year as possible. The idea is to give the USCIS as much time as possible to process AOS cases so that they don't wind up wasting visas under the quota by failing to approve a sufficient number of applications before September 30th. I would not be surprised to see EB2 China and India cutoff dates move into mid or even late 2008 before the end of Spring. Worldwide EB3 will likely advance about a month in each of the next several Visa Bulletins."

http://www.immigration-information.c...icantly-15576/

[grnwtg]

Sorry i was incomplete in aswering your question, if 485 is approved then most likely it wont be this report unless they are approved very recently. As per my knowledge 95% of people get their gc to hand in less than 1 month.
Yes there are some numbers from 1998 or 99, they might be cases that they some RFE was send to applicant and applicant no longer resides in USA OR it might be that uscis did not clean up data.

If it means 485 approved but GC is not yet handed over.. then is there a reason why we have numbers starting as old as 1998?

[familyguy]

Can I celebrate now ??

http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions

[venkimakthal]

http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions

Good news that EB1 demand is less from your link:
"Other factors that have an impact on EB2 cutoff date movement include usage in EB1 and EB5. In FY11, the demand in EB1 decreased dramatically. This was due to a change in EB1 Extraordinary Ability adjudications standards. This caused a high rate of denials in the EB1 category, along with a good bit of ongoing controversy."

[vizcard]

Good news that EB1 demand is less from your link:
"Other factors that have an impact on EB2 cutoff date movement include usage in EB1 and EB5. In FY11, the demand in EB1 decreased dramatically. This was due to a change in EB1 Extraordinary Ability adjudications standards. This caused a high rate of denials in the EB1 category, along with a good bit of ongoing controversy."

this was for last FY. The positive impact from EB1 might be less this year (FY12).

[veni001]

http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions

I think this is key going forward...

"The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers."

[mysati]

Based on these lines from Murthy's special bulletin,

There is a possibility that the EB2 cutoff date in December could be even more favorable than March 1, 2008. Since cutoff dates are based on estimates of demand, the DOS will use data regarding early November 2011 adjustment-of-status filings (Form I-485), prior to establishing the December cutoff date.

I am guessing that the Dec VB may come out only on Nov 11th (for them to gauge the demand for around 7 business days). What do you guys think?

[zztopfan]

I think this is key going forward...

"The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers."

I agree. However I would imagine DOS and USCIS would probably have some idea into the anticipated demand based on PERM/140/Average Porting Data. I mean if we could do it on freelance, then I am sure they could too. Afterall this is their job. My take is that language is just a lawyer speak. I think they already know how the PD movement will look like.

[parsvnath]

How long does it take to get EAD these days? 2 or 3 or 4 months

[pdmay2008]

Based on these lines from Murthy's special bulletin,

There is a possibility that the EB2 cutoff date in December could be even more favorable than March 1, 2008. Since cutoff dates are based on estimates of demand, the DOS will use data regarding early November 2011 adjustment-of-status filings (Form I-485), prior to establishing the December cutoff date.

I am guessing that the Dec VB may come out only on Nov 11th (for them to gauge the demand for around 7 business days). What do you guys think?

I do not think they can guage the demand in 7 businessdays.

Guessing even CO moves cut off date to Mar 2008. They will not be able to get all the demand before December 10th 2011. He will have to move the dates further in Jan bulletin just to be safer side.

My PD is May 2008, trying to see if I can sneak in any of the upcoming bulletins. Good luck to every one.

[suninphx]

I agree. However I would imagine DOS and USCIS would probably have some idea into the anticipated demand based on PERM/140/Average Porting Data. I mean if we could do it on freelance, then I am sure they could too. Afterall this is their job. My take is that language is just a lawyer speak. I think they already know how the PD movement will look like.

Also its not difficult to find out active 140's based on H1 renewals data, if they want to.

[venkimakthal]

I do not think they can guage the demand in 7 businessdays.

Guessing even CO moves cut off date to Mar 2008. They will not be able to get all the demand before December 10th 2011. He will have to move the dates further in Jan bulletin just to be safer side.

My PD is May 2008, trying to see if I can sneak in any of the upcoming bulletins. Good luck to every one.

Mine is April 08, 2008, may be yours and mine will be in Jan 2012 VB, let see

[nishant2200]

I think that for Dec VB, we might get lucky, unless 20k people file I-485 in first few days of November. But for January VB, they will have a rough idea of how much a certain amount of move may fetch. And even for November, it is not completely accurate, because some of the guys from July 15th to August 15th would have just got in during the July 2007 fiasco, so hopefully it would be to our advantage, just a little bit.

I would be highly surprised if we get VB after November 7th. Considering there's thanksgiving holidays too, CO might want to give people proper time to start getting their documents and applications ready, as well as his mind would be made up, unless an anamoly like above suggested. Just a counter thought to the proposed Nov 11th.

I also think they are not that much into how many PERM, how many 140 etc, and are just relying on plain old demand grabbing of 485. They might use that (PERM, 140 etc) for a very very high level rough guesstimate.

I think this is key going forward...

"The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers."

Based on these lines from Murthy's special bulletin,

There is a possibility that the EB2 cutoff date in December could be even more favorable than March 1, 2008. Since cutoff dates are based on estimates of demand, the DOS will use data regarding early November 2011 adjustment-of-status filings (Form I-485), prior to establishing the December cutoff date.

I am guessing that the Dec VB may come out only on Nov 11th (for them to gauge the demand for around 7 business days). What do you guys think?

I agree. However I would imagine DOS and USCIS would probably have some idea into the anticipated demand based on PERM/140/Average Porting Data. I mean if we could do it on freelance, then I am sure they could too. Afterall this is their job. My take is that language is just a lawyer speak. I think they already know how the PD movement will look like.

[bieber]

Veni

Do you think it's murthy's interpretation or actual CO words? because from the original source we had from narendrarao the law firm who published this first did not mention about receipts/filings. They said CO will gauge the demand (not the filings). I think if CO monitors the filings he may not be able to go to Mar1st 2008 in December bulletin itself

Unless he wants some 40-50k filings, because they are projecting that Jan/Feb bulletins will have similar movement too

[kumar_342]

Guys
Do we need to submit the following for I-485,
# Tax returns for the previous two years;
# W-2 forms for the previous two years;
my lawyer is saying dont have to unless they ask , please suggest

thanks
Kumar

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends:

It is a broken system.

I hope this information helps everyone who are waiting for the GC and their PD is current.

PD 04/15/2007 NSC
RD 08/10/2007
ND 10/10/2007

Here is a synopsis of event:
10/01/11- PD became current
10/03/11 - Openned an SR with L1 officer.
10/06/11 - Contact Congressman M. Doyle (D) office. Visited personally. Told them I am buying a House in there constituency. Showed them my sales agreement.
(REMEMBER: YOU HAVE TO CONTACT THE CONGRESSMAN OF YOUR OWN CONSTITUENCY)
10/07/11 - Got a response from Congressman's office
"After speaking with USCIS today, they are forwarding your case to an officer for review. This should take approximately two or three weeks."

10/14/11 - Got a standard e-mail reponse for the openned SR. "Application pending..wait 90 days ...bla bla bla"

10/25/11 - Contact Senator Toomey's office (R). Visited his office personally. Very formally dressed. Caseworker was really nice. Gave them the paperwork. He promised he will look into it.
10/25/11 - SAME DAY.. got the following response:
"I called the Nebraska Service Center and talked to someone who told me your case is with a review officer currently. There is no timeline for completion, it just depends on what else is on that person’s desk and how fast they can get it done."
10/27/11 - Got Approval.

I hope this helps. Good luck my friends. I am pretty sure everyone will overcome this once they are current.

Many congratulations to you and your family. Enjoy green life thanks for sharing the good news with us.

[TeddyKoochu]

Porting.

As per inventory report of October 1, 2010, EB3 I pending was 56,640 and as per October 1, 2011 EB3 I pending is 51,758. A reduction of 4,882. 2,800 normal quota, hence 2082 extra reduction. So porting is just around 2k (3k max)? I just had a huge Diwali lunch buffet so forgive me if I am making some totally stupid analysis here!

Last year the local office cases were added to the inventory in the middle so these could well be 2-3K this will bring the number to close to 4K, I agree that 6K definitely is an overstatement.

[veni001]

Veni

Do you think it's murthy's interpretation or actual CO words? because from the original source we had from narendrarao the law firm who published this first did not mention about receipts/filings. They said CO will gauge the demand (not the filings). I think if CO monitors the filings he may not be able to go to Mar1st 2008 in December bulletin itself

Unless he wants some 40-50k filings, because they are projecting that Jan/Feb bulletins will have similar movement too

bieber,
It could be any, but once the application are receipted then is easy for them to track demand for any given PD month(approved/pending/receipted) and compare against approved i-140 data.

[veni001]

Guys
Do we need to submit the following for I-485,
# Tax returns for the previous two years;
# W-2 forms for the previous two years;
my lawyer is saying dont have to unless they ask , please suggest

thanks
Kumar

Would be a good idea to include previous year W-2, especially if the employer had any ability to pay RFE's in the past.