EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[polapragada]

Pola, dont lose heart , that is the minimum they are expecting . In case if you miss by few days you will be current in the next vb . We are all in it together. let's hope for the best .

I did not lost it dude..little confusued that all. I don't mind waiting one more year even. I am not a kind of who will die next month if he won't get GC. take it easy

[polapragada]

polar, it's right there on their home page. http://murthy.com/

Thanks I see it now..

[qesehmk]

Guys sorry to interrupt the excitement here...

If you haven't done so already and are interested can you please vote the the charity of your choice for next month?

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/poll.p...sults&pollid=7

Thanks in advance for your vote. (Not asking for your money. We donate the advertising revenue from this site.)

[08OCT2008]

I am fascinated by the workings of human thought process and how past experiences affect our comments here in this prediction forum. Here we are getting information from Law firms (which are mostly conservative) that has received the information from the horse’s mouth which is very well in lines with the prediction made by the Gurus, yet we want to be cautious and not be over optimistic. I have always believed that Mr. CO was cautiously optimistic and leaned towards the conservative side which was evident from April 2010 comments about the movement and availability of 12 K extra visas. Remember here too Gurus predication is what came true at the end of the FY which made us think that our expectation were not met after the initial movement in May 2010. But now here he says that he will keep moving the dates until a visa number is available which is 3-4 months away (from: 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated) so I think we should see movement till Feb bulletin. So I believe the Gurus prediction during the early stages of FY i.e. before Mr CO’s comments will still come true by the end of FY.

[natvyas]

Based on the information trickling in from law firms I think the dates will move atleast to 1 Mar 08 because the CO has been these comments in forum and the guys credibility is on the line UNLESS he can come up with a very strong reason not to do so.

[familyguy]

user 'anothersoul' on murthy posted following text on oct/24/2011...

I read that American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) was scheduled to interact with Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at the US Department of State (DOS) this month where it was expected that Mr. Charles would shed some light on the demand for visas in different immigration categories and progression of priority dates for countries with backlog (India, China, etc..) in Employment based category for FY 2012. Waiting to hear the news from the meeting!
http://forum.murthy.com/index.php?/t...-aila-meeting/

It looks like there was scheduled meeting between AILA and DOS yesterday...

[familyguy]

From Ron Gotcher
http://www.immigration-information.c...4263#post64263

That is a summary of the Department of State - AILA October liaison meeting. Here is the actual text of the minutes:

Q29. Can you please give us predictions for the upcoming year for family and employment based immigrant visa numbers?

A29. Visa availability during the first half of FY‐2012:

FAMILY‐SPONSORED CATEGORIES

Worldwide dates: F1: three to six weeks F2A: three to six weeks F2B: one or two weeks F3: one or two weeks F4: up to one month

EMPLOYMENT‐BASED CATEGORIES

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide, Mexico, Philippines: Current
China and India: Significant cut‐off date movement between now and February. Such movement will not be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and there is a possibility for retrogression of the cut‐off during the summer months.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: up to one month China: one to three weeks India: one or two weeks
Mexico: up to one month Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that these estimates are subject to fluctuations in demand. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

[mrhyderabad]

Please can anyone shed some light on PD March 6th 2009 EB2-I.

[grnwtg]

Its little doubtfull that your date can current this year, i say 15-20% chances, but if dates really to april or may 2008 this year( which is like 60-70% chance), then you have chance to file for 485/EAD next year.

Please can anyone shed some light on PD March 6th 2009 EB2-I.

[Airbender]

My PD is EB-2I July'09.....and I have a job offer with a start-up.

There are lot of opportunity for growth in this company , stock-options etc. I am in non-IT field.

Any advice if this is a good time to make a move , considering a lot of excitement from CO message and HR3012?

[mrhyderabad]

Thanks grnwtg. I hope I can get EAD at least next year and switch job after 180 days.

[SmileBaba]

Teddy/Gurus: What according to you would be the latest date for Eb2I to get green card this year? I know there is a high possibility of people till Feb/Mar 2008 to file 485 this year, but what do you think would be the latest date to get GC in this current fiscal year?

Also if USCIS processes 140,00 green cards every year, then does it counts for both approved + denied (I-485) cases, or 140,000 should just be the number of approved (I-485) cases in a fiscal year?

Thanks in advance.

01-JAN-2008 - 100%
15-JAN-2008 - 75%
01-FEB-2008 - 50%
15-FEB-2008 - 30%
01-MAR-2008 - 20%
01-APR-2008 - 10%

[pdmay2008]

Teddy/Gurus: What according to you would be the latest date for Eb2I to get green card this year? I know there is a high possibility of people till Feb/Mar 2008 to file 485 this year, but what do you think would be the latest date to get GC in this current fiscal year?

Also if USCIS processes 140,00 green cards every year, then does it counts for both approved + denied (I-485) cases, or 140,000 should just be the number of approved (I-485) cases in a fiscal year?

Thanks in advance.

It counts only 140000 approved numbers. Does not matter how many they denied.

[qesehmk]

For Jul 09 EB2I, it could take 3 years. Its your choice. I would change the company if I were you.

My PD is EB-2I July'09.....and I have a job offer with a start-up.

There are lot of opportunity for growth in this company , stock-options etc. I am in non-IT field.

Any advice if this is a good time to make a move , considering a lot of excitement from CO message and HR3012?

[Airbender]

Good advice Q.

For Jul 09 EB2I, it could take 3 years. Its your choice. I would change the company if I were you.

[girish989]

Q, Just curious, if the pd is moved to mar 2008 this month, it would take 3 years for one year worth of movement..... .... hmmm

[venkimakthal]

Hope mine PD April 8, 2008 will be in new year Jan 2012 VB

[qesehmk]

Unfortunately it is based on what I didn't do and thought could've done and furthered by career
I will be glad if it works out well for you!

Good advice Q.

Q, Just curious, if the pd is moved to mar 2008 this month, it would take 3 years for one year worth of movement..... .... hmmm

That's because then next year the date would move to Mar 2009. And then for Jul 2009 to arrive it will take another year (if QSP doesn't occur). If QSP happens in 2013 then people with PD Jul 2009 might get lucky 6 months earlier. Makes sense?

[tnayar78]

Re: Charles Oppenheim : EB-2 China and India will advance significantly

As I have been writing for the past couple of months, the Visa Office needs to see to it that as many green card applications (both AOS and CP) are filed as early in the year as possible. The idea is to give the USCIS as much time as possible to process AOS cases so that they don't wind up wasting visas under the quota by failing to approve a sufficient number of applications before September 30th. I would not be surprised to see EB2 China and India cutoff dates move into mid or even late 2008 before the end of Spring. Worldwide EB3 will likely advance about a month in each of the next several Visa Bulletins.

[Airbender]

I missed a similar opportunity before seeing the stock price of that company today....so dont want to miss this one.[QUOTE=qesehmk;12006]Unfortunately it is based on what I didn't do and thought could've done and furthered by career
I will be glad if it works out well for you!

[asankaran]

Q,

I would suggest people make decisions based on the demand data that has documented I-485 between July-Nov 2007. I think only then we can say how far the dates could move. Some of the PERM related assumptions may drastically change as I am expecting demand destruction in later part of 2008 till first quarter of 2010.

Unfortunately it is based on what I didn't do and thought could've done and furthered by career
I will be glad if it works out well for you!



That's because then next year the date would move to Mar 2009. And then for Jul 2009 to arrive it will take another year (if QSP doesn't occur). If QSP happens in 2013 then people with PD Jul 2009 might get lucky 6 months earlier. Makes sense?

[qesehmk]

oh i agree. i think everyobdy should make their own informed decision.

Q,

I would suggest people make decisions based on the demand data that has documented I-485 between July-Nov 2007. I think only then we can say how far the dates could move. Some of the PERM related assumptions may drastically change as I am expecting demand destruction in later part of 2008 till first quarter of 2010.

[SmileBaba]

Friends,
On the USCIS's 485 checklist documents I have not seen any requirement to submit Pay-stubs or W2 along with I-485; then why almost all lawyers ask to submit them?
Anyway my fear is that my last 2 year w2's have lower salary total, and I don't know how does it affect anybody's 485 approval chances. Kindly share your thoughts.

[suninphx]

Friends,
On the USCIS's 485 checklist documents I have not seen any requirement to submit Pay-stubs or W2 along with I-485; then why almost all lawyers ask to submit them?
Anyway my fear is that my last 2 year w2's have lower salary total, and I don't know how does it affect anybody's 485 approval chances. Kindly share your thoughts.

Is W2 amount less than LCA? (assuming you are on H1B)

[SmileBaba]

Thank you!

It counts only 140000 approved numbers. Does not matter how many they denied.