EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

That is only for India. You would have to do the same for China and ROW.

Also, I think only applicant is included in I-485. Therefore, Visa Numbers needed is higher (around 2.05 / applicant). Therefore, regular quota for India is 2,805 / 2.05 = 1,368 I-485 applications. Thus porters are 4882 - 1368 = 3,512.

Now assume 3,500 applicants for India. Add 1,500 for China and ROW (just guessing need to analyze the data further) and you arrive at around 6,000 porters. I believe this is the number that has been thrown around in this forum.

EDIT: Apparently 3,500 + 1,500 = 5,000 and not 6,000 as I mention above. Stupid mathematics . But I think you get the idea.

I think inventory includes primary as well dependents.

[immi2910]

looks like the inventory as of October 1st

The EB2ROW+EB1 together has around 25k, looks like majority of this (75% atleast) is waiting on 140 approval to get processed and that could be the proper reason behind the big movement for EB2IC in last 2 bulletins

I dont think so. I think PWMB's are counted in this inventory maybe?

No it is up to Oct 1. It says so here - http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

[immi2910]

That is only for India. You would have to do the same for China and ROW.

Also, I think only applicant is included in I-485. Therefore, Visa Numbers needed is higher (around 2.05 / applicant). Therefore, regular quota for India is 2,805 / 2.05 = 1,368 I-485 applications. Thus porters are 4882 - 1368 = 3,512.

Now assume 3,500 applicants for India. Add 1,500 for China and ROW (just guessing need to analyze the data further) and you arrive at around 6,000 porters. I believe this is the number that has been thrown around in this forum.

EDIT: Apparently 3,500 + 1,500 = 5,000 and not 6,000 as I mention above. Stupid mathematics . But I think you get the idea.

I think inventory includes primary as well dependents.

Yes. You are correct, which renders my analysis incorrect.

From USCIS website explaining how to read the report - http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.

[grnwtg]

These numbers are always a question mark. <14k sofad is very low when compared to our calculations, are we missing something???
now loosing hope that dates will move any inch in this whole year...

When one compares the june 2011 inventory v/s Oct inventory for EB2I the difference is 13571 which is what we got as SOFAD for FY2011. I am trying to understand why the Demand data used for determination of Nov 2011 bulletin says EB2I pending before Jan 1 2008 is 1275 The one on uscis inventory shows 8965. Why are these numbers too wide apart. DOS numbers are not just the consular posts but also includes cis numbers (thats what it says). Does anyone has any logical explanation.

[nishant2200]

It's ironical that they say they want potential applicant to know where they stand in line, but dont allow floodgates for entry, otherwise if I am not in line at all, how the heck wud I know where I stand

Yes. You are correct, which renders my analysis incorrect.

From USCIS website explaining how to read the report - http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.

[nishant2200]

Frankly these numbers I have always seen higher pending than demand data, as well as these do not show reduction- addition due to Oct and Nov VB. the report with those in will be the real help.

I still stick with somewhere in Jan 2008 as prediction for Dec VB. that is the most logical thing to do for CO.

These numbers are always a question mark. <14k sofad is very low when compared to our calculations, are we missing something???
now loosing hope that dates will move any inch in this whole year...

[Reader]

What happened to the theory that the four month delay in PWD for PERM would benefit EB2-IC by giving more SOFAD this year. Does that still hold good? Why the optimism that existed for the last couple of weeks is now slowly fading away?

[narendarrao]

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

[qblogfan]

Wow!!! It's great news!

Thanks for sharing! I hope this website has some credibility!

I copied from the website provided by narendarrao.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

[pdmay2008]

It's ironical that they say they want potential applicant to know where they stand in line, but dont allow floodgates for entry, otherwise if I am not in line at all, how the heck wud I know where I stand

Well said. We do not have any clarity where we stand today and tomorrow. But we are all standing in a virtual lane. Hopefully we will join the physical lane in near future.

[Reader]

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

Really good news. Is it even possible / allowed for CO to share his plans / thoughts to one particular Attorney??

[nishant2200]

Now its Diwali! Let the fireworks begin. Narendra sir, I bow down to you.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

[nishant2200]

Really good news. Is it even possible / allowed for CO to share his plans / thoughts to one particular Attorney??

reader they say: "Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. " I think this must be a general discussion with stakeholders, not just this law firm. I am pretty sure other law firms or stake holders might be present.

Honestly, whatever they have written, now makes sense with what CO put in last VB about prediction for future movement, as well as the NVC fee bills.

[pdmay2008]

reader they say: "Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. " I think this must be a general discussion with stakeholders, not just this law firm. I am pretty sure other law firms or stake holders might be present.

Honestly, whatever they have written, now makes sense with what CO put in last VB about prediction for future movement, as well as the NVC fee bills.

I hope this becomes true in next couple of bulletins. But the current released data is not supporting where this plan heading towards.

[mygctracker]

Thanks for sharing.

Appears to be credible from horse mouth...

"EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen."

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

[sandeep11]

It looks credible.

We should watch for any AILA updates too, usually they are fast enough to put any discussion with CO on their website. We whould watch for them to publish if they were part of the stakeholders ( 100% they should be).

But looks like it is good news, especially after this inventory data that was released and messed up our brains. Probably we should be seeing an early VB for Dec.

reader they say: "Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. " I think this must be a general discussion with stakeholders, not just this law firm. I am pretty sure other law firms or stake holders might be present.

Honestly, whatever they have written, now makes sense with what CO put in last VB about prediction for future movement, as well as the NVC fee bills.

[qblogfan]

It's great news released in Diwali! Maybe Mr.Co wants our Indian friends to have a good new year!

Bow to Narendra Sir! Bow to Nishant Bhai! Diwali is great!

Now its Diwali! Let the fireworks begin. Narendra sir, I bow down to you.

[soggadu]

awesomeeeeeeeeeeeeeee news....would be great for many of our friends who are waiting ....

[nishant2200]

I hope this becomes true in next couple of bulletins. But the current released data is not supporting where this plan heading towards.

I don't agree. Always pending report shows strange numbers and higher than demand data, and this report is not having anything from Oct VB movement. Also I really think CO wants 30k + some buffer, and since Nov VB applications filed can only show up in complete numbers in December, and he needs to release Dec VB in November 8th around, this is golden opportunity to advance, which he also seems to think so, and once he gets to January VB, he will have more grip on how much applications a date movement may bring in. Dec VB as we have maintained, is the really golden chance to make a movement as huge one can.

[nishant2200]

Even OH Law Firm website is quick to put up good bits of information, and it's free for people as compared to AILA, so lets keep an eye there also.

It looks credible.

We should watch for any AILA updates too, usually they are fast enough to put any discussion with CO on their website. We whould watch for them to publish if they were part of the stakeholders ( 100% they should be).

But looks like it is good news, especially after this inventory data that was released and messed up our brains. Probably we should be seeing an early VB for Dec.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you completely!

In October's report, he could only see 2-3k new 485 cases.

In November around 8k people will file 485, but he will see these numbers in December.

So the next VB is the golden opportunity to move dates. He will see 10k new cases on his table in December and he will consider twice when he moves PD for January VB. For Feburary VB, he will see at least 20k new cases on his table and he will think 3 times for March VB. The opposition will become much stronger with the increase of demand.

I don't agree. Always pending report shows strange numbers and higher than demand data, and this report is not having anything from Oct VB movement. Also I really think CO wants 30k + some buffer, and since Nov VB applications filed can only show up in complete numbers in December, and he needs to release Dec VB in November 8th around, this is golden opportunity to advance, which he also seems to think so, and once he gets to January VB, he will have more grip on how much applications a date movement may bring in. Dec VB as we have maintained, is the really golden chance to make a movement as huge one can.

[qesehmk]

the current released data doesn't point in any direction other than may be that USCIS needs to replenish EB2IC inventory.

Even the dates that are current today i.e. Oct 2007 doesn't help a lot to replenish the inventory. So there is quite a lot scope there.

As I have said many times... the least the dates could move is upto Jan 2008. Other than that sky is the limit and CO can move wherever HE wants. The only disclaimer I would put is that if he goes beyond Apr 2008 then he will likely retrogress to Apr 2008.

Anyway ... gr8 post by narendrarao! Thanks! You posted wonderful news on Diwali.

Whoever posted on Fragomen.... don't feel bad about it. Fragomen could simply be trying to be conservative. Its very natural for a lawyer to be conservative.

I hope this becomes true in next couple of bulletins. But the current released data is not supporting where this plan heading towards.

[skpanda]

Gr8 news on Diwali...

Wish all the guyz with PD before April 2008 .. a very good luck.. in next 2 bulletins....

Also wish and pray that Mr. CO moves the dates far beyond April 2008...

thank you, may the force be with you! Yes, right now only we two are signed users the blog shows. You won't believe me, even at night 3 am if I wake up to go to restroom, I check out the forum on iphone

If I wake up at 5 am I can't sleep after that, I have become restless.

I am pretty sure we shall be kicked out of our posts here on all this, I will PM you for emailing contact

I hear u.. i do the same on my phone...at the middle of the night...sometimes (during VB release dates) multiple times in the night....

haha, cool! You are the "REAL" fan of Q's blog. I should change my name to "2ndqblogfan".

My friend, thank you, have a good sleep and take care! I wish you will get GC ASAP!

PS: Sorry for the unrelated posts. Maybe you can remove my posts tomorrow.

QBF... i am a big fan of you buddy... I wish and pray you get a chance to file EAD/AP in next few months and you get a well deserved vacation back to your home country after a veryyyyyy long time.... May God bless you...

[pch053]

This sounds like a great news and if it holds true for the next couple of bulletins, many of our fellow bloggers will be current in Dec itself and enjoy the holiday season better. I have been keeping an eye on trackitt approvals and there is still a steady flow of EB2-I approvals coming in (other than today; maybe USCIS is also celebrating Diwali). For the month of Oct, we have 130+ EB2-I approvals and qblogfan pointed out earlier that there have been significant number (> 100) of EB2C approvals too in mittbs. Combining the above two might constitute a significant chunk of EB2I+C who got current in Oct, meaning the pending EB2I queue is diminishing fast. I do see a few people in trackitt reporting that they haven't been approved yet or the case is stuck somewhere but this number has also decreased exponentially in the last couple of weeks. So, all in all things look promising for EB2I+C at this point of time.

[grnwtg]

This is great news if he really moves dates as he mentioned...
Diwali mood is not going away.
Best of luck for all You...

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/