EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[leo4ever]

vedu,
Thank you

10,424 i-140 completions in August, no wonder USCIS found sudden increase in demand for September.

Veni,

What exactly is this i140 completion data? Are these people who applied for140 or they have anapproved 140? Like for ex ihave140 approved and wheni file for 485 does that number decrease? Sorry might be a basic questions.

[veni001]

Veni,

What exactly Isis this i140 data. Aretgese people who appliedfor140 and already have an approval? Like for ex ihave140 approvedandwheni file for 485 does that number decrease? Sorry might be a basic questions.

Leo,
EB1-2-3 Primary applicants require i-140 approval. Pending i-140's are from EB1 and EB2-3 applicants with PERM approval.

i-140 completions include both approvals and denials.

[Gclongwait]

I still cannot understand / reconcile the numbers, if the GCs being allocated from Oct-3rd are from this year's quota, how come the cut-off date for EB2-C not move ahead of EB2-I's cut-off date? Someone had asked this question earlier in the forum but it did not seem to get much traction. Can anyone please provide some insight?

I had asked this in last years thread. I still don't know from where the numbers are coming but I stand by my theory that this is not 2012 regular quota since eb2c would have moved much further than India if this was regular quota. It would be plain illegal otherwise.

I never made predictions before but here goes.....
My prediction is anyone till April 2008 stands a 75% chance of a gc this year. I believe in trends and over the last few years for eb2, 5 years is like a max for getting gc. It takes 5 years only if you miss the cutoff date by like a month or so, of course assuming your case doesn't get stuck somewhere. Most people are getting it in 4 to 4.5 years. I think anyone till July 2008 should be able to file for ead since that's where the fee receipts are known to hmave been sent.

Anyways hope for the best.

[veni001]

I had asked this in last years thread. I still don't know from where the numbers are coming but I stand by my theory that this is not 2012 regular quota since eb2c would have moved much further than India if this was regular quota. It would be plain illegal otherwise.

I never made predictions before but here goes.....
My prediction is anyone till April 2008 stands a 75% chance of a gc this year. I believe in trends and over the last few years for eb2, 5 years is like a max for getting gc. It takes 5 years only if you miss the cutoff date by like a month or so, of course assuming your case doesn't get stuck somewhere. Most people are getting it in 4 to 4.5 years. I think anyone till July 2008 should be able to file for ead since that's where the fee receipts are known to hmave been sent.

Anyways hope for the best.

Gclongwait,
We don't know yet!

But, moving dates does not always mean every one before that Cut off date will get GC.

[Monica12]

Posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.

[nishant2200]

Monica, thank you. I agree with him, it would be a wasted opportunity if CO dont move dates.

Posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.

[imdeng]

Trends are a result of the underlying data - they are the symptom and not the cause. Trends are likely to change as the underlying data changes. For example - PD rushed through 2005 because that was a weak year for 485 demand, it is taking a lot of time to run through 2007 because it has a heavy demand. Once we cross 2007 and early 2008, we will see PD advance more rapidly because late 2008 and especially 2009 is quite weak in demand. Someone with early 2010 PD (before the 2010 PERM rush started) might be able to break the 4 year mark, especially if the economy continues to be weak and EB1, EB2ROW and EB5 continue to provide large SO.

My prediction is anyone till April 2008 stands a 75% chance of a gc this year. I believe in trends and over the last few years for eb2, 5 years is like a max for getting gc. It takes 5 years only if you miss the cutoff date by like a month or so, of course assuming your case doesn't get stuck somewhere. Most people are getting it in 4 to 4.5 years. I think anyone till July 2008 should be able to file for ead since that's where the fee receipts are known to hmave been sent.

[imdeng]

I don't think it makes much difference in larger scheme of things. USCIS is approving cases in 2-3 months, so as long as CO avoids the two extreme cases of making PD current and wasting visa numbers, movement right now really is not of much importance - and I think the probability of the two extreme events happening is quite low. Of course, it makes a lot of difference to people in the margin - but even for them the impact is at most of a couple months.

Monica, thank you. I agree with him, it would be a wasted opportunity if CO dont move dates.

[nishant2200]

The late he makes movement, better handle on demand that can be as well as usage trend of E1, E2ROW could catch up. People in 2008 have better chance of getting in if movements are early. Let's hope at least for 2008 folks, CO doesn't waste this chance.

A consistent attempt to dent the 140 backlog, E5 encouragement and E1C PP might hit us.

I don't think it makes much difference in larger scheme of things. USCIS is approving cases in 2-3 months, so as long as CO avoids the two extreme cases of making PD current and wasting visa numbers, movement right now really is not of much importance - and I think the probability of the two extreme events happening is quite low. Of course, it makes a lot of difference to people in the margin - but even for them the impact is at most of a couple months.

[vizcard]

I had asked this in last years thread. I still don't know from where the numbers are coming but I stand by my theory that this is not 2012 regular quota since eb2c would have moved much further than India if this was regular quota. It would be plain illegal otherwise.

I never made predictions before but here goes.....
My prediction is anyone till April 2008 stands a 75% chance of a gc this year. I believe in trends and over the last few years for eb2, 5 years is like a max for getting gc. It takes 5 years only if you miss the cutoff date by like a month or so, of course assuming your case doesn't get stuck somewhere. Most people are getting it in 4 to 4.5 years. I think anyone till July 2008 should be able to file for ead since that's where the fee receipts are known to hmave been sent.

Anyways hope for the best.

Is it a fact that fee receipts thru July 2008 have been sent? Where can one check this?

[nishant2200]

Fee receipts: On the advocacy website, **, a user claims to have June 2008 and NVC receipt. I think username begins with vick.

On Ron's forum, he has mentioned having fee receipts at least till January 2008. Read Ron's reply at http://www.immigration-information.c...-future-15096/

Ron Gotcher is reputed attorney and I would hence trust Jan 2008 NVC receipt to be 100% correct.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

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Also please vote for next months charities. The poll is open now.

Thanks for your vote!

[tanu_75]

I would be cautious about using the NVC receipts as a correlator for VB movement. We've seen NVC receipts for Jan 2008 PD's filtering through early this year, I believe as early as Mar/Apr. There are a few interesting indicators though :
1. What we've heard from the horse's mouth, in the Nov VB where they specifically say that "significant movement" is expected in the future, although it may not be made on a monthly basis.
I would think that could mean that by the end of this year, i.e Oct 2012, PD's at least 6 months from the Nov PD (Oct 2007), should at least get a chance to file for 485. So Apr 30th 2008 could be possible in the next 6-9 months.
2. I think qbf had mentioned that CO wants (from email/talk response to mitbbs folks ) to keep EB2 GC within a limit of 4.5 years, so that would mean by Sep 2012, he would move to around Mar 2008.

So the year could end around Mar/Apr 2008 and if they decide to pull in a buffer, then maybe a few more months on top of it. As to when and how they'll move, I think the consensus is that somewhere within the next 2-3 months, dates will move to around Feb 1st 2008. And then probably around March 2012, they may make another short 2-3 month move and close it out there.

It's all up in the air though. What if EB1 or EB2 ROW demand picks up (-ve), porting produces more demand (-ve), July 2007 EB2CI PD demand is not high as Q pointed (+ve) etc. Too many unknowns right now, but , and I say this cautiously, there appears to be a little bit of clarity I think of how CO maybe approaching this.

[orangeca]

Fee receipts: On the advocacy website, **, a user claims to have June 2008 and NVC receipt. I think username begins with vick.

On Ron's forum, he has mentioned having fee receipts at least till January 2008. Read Ron's reply at http://www.immigration-information.c...-future-15096/

Ron Gotcher is reputed attorney and I would hence trust Jan 2008 NVC receipt to be 100% correct.

Nishant bhai- My PD is Feb 1 08 and I got the NVC email few months ago. Also, colleague of mine had PD of late FEB and even he got the NVC email. Thought this will be some useful information for you gurus.

[nishant2200]

Nishant bhai- My PD is Feb 1 08 and I got the NVC email few months ago. Also, colleague of mine had PD of late FEB and even he got the NVC email. Thought this will be some useful information for you gurus.

This is really great, now we have feb 08 confirmation for sure. Friend if u dont mind can u tell us which exact month u got it. Thanks a lot.

Edit: I found it, u had posted on 5/24/2011 informing this earlier!

[orangeca]

This is really great, now we have feb 08 confirmation for sure. Friend if u dont mind can u tell us which exact month u got it. Thanks a lot.

Edit: I found it, u had posted on 5/24/2011 informing this earlier!

It was Monday, May 23, 2011 1:36 PM

[orangeca]

Nishant, man you are fast!!

[nishant2200]

Nishant, man you are fast!!

H1B mazdoori has taught me survival instincts and my foolhardiness in starting GC late has shown me the need for speed

I agree with Tanu (which btw is also a character from one of my favorite book series Fablehaven), that it does not necessarily mean exact corelation, but something will happen this FY. By putting the words not on a monthly basis, CO has really turned our world upside down with conundrums.

Thank u for putting date and even time. May the force be with you.

[qblogfan]

it's great information!

thanks for providing evidence! The latest credible one I heard is April 2008. One guy on ** website reported it in the summer.

Nishant bhai- My PD is Feb 1 08 and I got the NVC email few months ago. Also, colleague of mine had PD of late FEB and even he got the NVC email. Thought this will be some useful information for you gurus.

[nishant2200]

Trackitt gurus, how fares the EB1 and EB2ROW approval trend in October so far, anything alarming either way or comparison with last Oct.

[dec2007]

Hello Nishanth....
hope you get currnt next bulletin buddy..I'm also eagerly waiting for my date Dec 31, 2007. good luck..

[nishant2200]

Hello Nishanth....
hope you get currnt next bulletin buddy..I'm also eagerly waiting for my date Dec 31, 2007. good luck..

What a date! It means ur lawyer was working hard for u on new year eve and filed the PERM before he went off to party!

[grnwtg]

Wow, thats awesome date and hopefully you can get current in coming month or two.

Hello Nishanth....
hope you get currnt next bulletin buddy..I'm also eagerly waiting for my date Dec 31, 2007. good luck..

[grnwtg]

Wow thanks for your post. Late Feb, tells me to be optimistic for my date also ..

Nishant bhai- My PD is Feb 1 08 and I got the NVC email few months ago. Also, colleague of mine had PD of late FEB and even he got the NVC email. Thought this will be some useful information for you gurus.

[shivarajan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7D3_...eature=related