EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[nishant2200]

gc_usa, I remember your analysis done for last VB, and went and collected it.

I think basically you are trying to say this time that if quarterly spillover happens you don't see dates moving, I think. I may be confused by exact numbers you are putting in.

let's see, no one really knows, we all are proposing theories and hopes. Last time DOS did go against your analysis pointed out, but not anyone's fault, no one can really know their minds, what games they want to play.

I was right about my theory how they were able to shift date in OCT after allocating all 5.6k visas to EB2 IC. DOS will have hard time to allocate spill over visas in Nov so date will remain same for Nov or can move little. In Dec they will use first Q1 spill over and able to move date till March 2008.

If date will not move in nov more than 1 months all people with PD < March 2008 should be ready for DEC. Chances are 95 % that happening in DEC.

DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.

So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.

Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.

They have assigned 5.6k quota to EB2 IC. they can do legally but can't go more than 28.6 % of total EB2 in Q1. so Nov will hold them back marching forward. Either DEC or JAN (depend where they can allocate Qtr spillover visas , either in last month or first month of next qtr ) they will make a one shot final big move. I predict it will go all the way up to June - Sep 2008 then.

Thanks Champu for confirming.

I am much more confident now. We heard from some site other day , one of top lawyer also mentioned same, I got news from other resource too that date are not moving much in Nov. In DEC and JAN it will. DEC is 6th month for people who got NVC fee notices up to Jan - Mar 2008. Chances are almost 100% for Jan - March 2008 for DEC unless EB1 demand spike up and DOS can allocate only 2k spillover from EB5. They need at least 1.5k from EB1 after Q1 spillover.

USCIS had 8.5k till July 2007. For every month after that if you take 2.5k it will be 12.5 k so total till Dec will be 21k. EB2 IC regular quota will be used by porting. (Guess 1) .

DOS doesn't know yet what will be spill over and they don't do advance calculation like us. To not waste visa they must go over what was last year assigned around 30k. So till end of Feb 2008 they need to move if they need buffer then 2-3 more months. which will be till April - June 2008.

Dates are not moving for DEC though !!!

DOS has limit of 12k visas for first qtr for EB2 total and out of that 8,5 to 8.7k are assigned to EB2 IC rest will go to ROW and they will consume spillover from Q1. ( ROW will consume spillover ) and date will not move.....

In Jan new qtr so date will move again for EB2 IC and may be same thing will happen.

so far EB2 IC has used 3k extra and going forward it will only use 1-2k extra to make more move so total is < 6k which is EB5 spillover. If in case EB2 row and Eb1 doesnot spillover at all still DOS is safe by end of year.

[president99]

Hi, I am new to this forum and seeing the posts i find it very informative, i have a question on spillovers....when a quarterly SO happens, does the CO just move the dates or do "actual visas" get issued? With my prio date of 10/22/07, can i get a GC in hand in 6 months or should i expect it in Oct 2012 Thanks.

[pch053]

You should get it in 6 months time and I don't think you have to wait for Oct'12. With that being said, the quarterly spillover is (probably) happening only this year; in the past few years all the spillover visas were allocated during the year end (May - Sep, depending on the year). But, in any case, you can expect your approval by 2nd quarter of 2012.

[nishant2200]

Hi, I am new to this forum and seeing the posts i find it very informative, i have a question on spillovers....when a quarterly SO happens, does the CO just move the dates or do "actual visas" get issued? With my prio date of 10/22/07, can i get a GC in hand in 6 months or should i expect it in Oct 2012 Thanks.

president99, only reason people are contemplating about quarterly spillover is because the last bulletin said movement each month may not be the norm.

I personally am highly doubtful about quarterly spillover.

I think mid Q3 - Q4 FY 2012 (may 2012 to sep 2012) would be the time I would expect you to get the GC.

[jkrocks]

If people in July PD are gettng GC's it means..all is well with CO..Personally DEC bulletin should be a "Happy Bulletiin" as its Thanksgiving/Christmas time.....I think CO will suprise everyone..most people are saying "Jan 2008" some people are saying "March 2008" ..but i think CO will suprise all of us..by moving dates by 7-8 months...and since most of the holiday season lot of people want to take it easy ..coming Jan /Feb 2012 u will not see any movement..and It will retrogress in March/April/May back to May 2008..and again dates will move in July/Aug/Sep. This is just a guess!:-)

[veni001]

I don't have H1 B visa stamp. I will book my tickets now, but will postpone my trip in the last minute, if I don't receive my AP. I am actually concerned with 485 apps processing during my stay out of US. Do I need to come back to answer any RFE's if any or do we need to be present in US for any thing else. I am planning to go for at least 2 months (1 month vacations + 1 month work from home).

nayekal,
If you have attorney representing your case, then you don't need to be in US to respond to RFE, if any.

Having said that, since you don't have valid H1 Visa stamp i wouldn't recommend travel outside US until you receive AP.

[nishant2200]

If people in July PD are gettng GC's it means..all is well with CO..Personally DEC bulletin should be a "Happy Bulletiin" as its Thanksgiving/Christmas time.....I think CO will suprise everyone..most people are saying "Jan 2008" some people are saying "March 2008" ..but i think CO will suprise all of us..by moving dates by 7-8 months...and since most of the holiday season lot of people want to take it easy ..coming Jan /Feb 2012 u will not see any movement..and It will retrogress in March/April/May back to May 2008..and again dates will move in July/Aug/Sep. This is just a guess!:-)

who knows man, since there is no concrete data or past trend to say immediate future, one cannot completely throw away your thought.

My best friend says: mango dilse milega zaroor (ask for it with your heart and you will get it)

so maybe we can all keep repeating this slogan.

BTW, if you see latest murthy bulletin, it talks about something I would call EB2-EB2 porting for people who abandoned ship and now wants to get back to original, murthy talking about it means must be significant number of such people, and looks like at least just in few months immediate future, it may reduce a tiny bit of incoming applications.

[meetasn]

Here are approvals from Trackitt on 11/20/2011
EB2 18 MAR 2007 TSC India
EB2 21 Dec 2010 TSC Iran
EB2 01 NOV 2006 NSC India
EB2 16 APR 2007 NSC India
EB2 12 JUN 2007 NSC India
EB2 08 Jun 2007 NSC India
EB2 01 MAY 2007 NSC India
EB2 13 JUL 2007 NSC India
EB2 11 MAY 2007 TSC India
EB2 03 MAY 2007 TSC India

It seems Like backlogs before 15 July 2007 are getting cleared

[suninphx]

Here are approvals from Trackitt on 11/20/2011
EB2 18 MAR 2007 TSC India
EB2 21 Dec 2010 TSC Iran
EB2 01 NOV 2006 NSC India
EB2 16 APR 2007 NSC India
EB2 12 JUN 2007 NSC India
EB2 08 Jun 2007 NSC India
EB2 01 MAY 2007 NSC India
EB2 13 JUL 2007 NSC India
EB2 11 MAY 2007 TSC India
EB2 03 MAY 2007 TSC India

It seems Like backlogs before 15 July 2007 are getting cleared

How is porting trend holding up? I remember it was at high rate for initial days. Not sure whats number now. (If some one has it already please share if not I will look it up myself)

[pch053]

There are still few porting cases that are getting approved but from the trackitt approvals this week, I will say that a significant # of approvals now are for cases with PD between mid-April to mid-July'07.

[suninphx]

There are still few porting cases that are getting approved but from the trackitt approvals this week, I will say that a significant # of approvals now are for cases with PD between mid-April to mid-July'07.

Ok thanks pch053. So probably one of assumptios that porting is not that significant factor (yet) is still holding up.

[sandeep11]

As Teddy mentioned in one of his recent posts if all or most of them before 7/15/2007 get approved then the demand data published stands to be right. I am hoping that the dates would move this VB also. I will stick to Teddy's projection of 1/1/2008. It makes sense for DOS to get all inventory for 2007 since it being most dense and accomodate 1st quarter of 2008 based on the demand.

Here are approvals from Trackitt on 11/20/2011
EB2 18 MAR 2007 TSC India
EB2 21 Dec 2010 TSC Iran
EB2 01 NOV 2006 NSC India
EB2 16 APR 2007 NSC India
EB2 12 JUN 2007 NSC India
EB2 08 Jun 2007 NSC India
EB2 01 MAY 2007 NSC India
EB2 13 JUL 2007 NSC India
EB2 11 MAY 2007 TSC India
EB2 03 MAY 2007 TSC India

It seems Like backlogs before 15 July 2007 are getting cleared

[immi2910]

There are still few porting cases that are getting approved but from the trackitt approvals this week, I will say that a significant # of approvals now are for cases with PD between mid-April to mid-July'07.

Yes, I had done an analysis yesterday. Analysis based on today's data is:

TrackIt has a string of approvals for EB2I in Octorber. I am seeing 98 approvals in October with approximately 75% (73/98) of people who have priority date between 04/15 to 07/15 (i.e. people who became current in Oct).

Now the weirdest part is there is 1 case with a PD of 7/26 (username alien02k). This date will not be current until November but it seems I-485 has already been approved. Can anyone explain how is that even possible? What is happening at USCIS?

[nishant2200]

immi2910, are you looking at his country of birth or citizenship. Country of birth is what counts as chargability, either yours, or you can use your spouse's country of birth if its beneficial. So it maybe possible that:
- the guy is born in some other country
- or the guy's spouse is born in some other country (which won't be seen in trackitt, I dont think they have a country of chargeability column, or do they? I think they used to have only citizen and birth columns)

edit: I see that they do have country of chargeability column and citizen column, not birth, so maybe he has put the column value wrong.

Yes, I had done an analysis yesterday. Analysis based on today's data is:

TrackIt has a string of approvals for EB2I in Octorber. I am seeing 98 approvals in October with approximately 75% (73/98) of people who have priority date between 04/15 to 07/15 (i.e. people who became current in Oct).

Now the weirdest part is there is 1 case with a PD of 7/26 (username alien02k). This date will not be current until November but it seems I-485 has already been approved. Can anyone explain how is that even possible? What is happening at USCIS?

[suninphx]

Yes, I had done an analysis yesterday. Analysis based on today's data is:

TrackIt has a string of approvals for EB2I in Octorber. I am seeing 98 approvals in October with approximately 75% (73/98) of people who have priority date between 04/15 to 07/15 (i.e. people who became current in Oct).

Now the weirdest part is there is 1 case with a PD of 7/26 (username alien02k). This date will not be current until November but it seems I-485 has already been approved. Can anyone explain how is that even possible? What is happening at USCIS?

That person might have entered a wrong date.

[nishant2200]

As Teddy mentioned in one of his recent posts if all or most of them before 7/15/2007 get approved then the demand data published stands to be right. I am hoping that the dates would move this VB also. I will stick to Teddy's projection of 1/1/2008. It makes sense for DOS to get all inventory for 2007 since it being most dense and accomodate 1st quarter of 2008 based on the demand.

Sandeep, if the demand data is indeed correct, and they are honoring the movement with entire allocation in one shot, it seems to me:
- They have taken some special permission from some power to circumvent the law about percent allocation limit in the first three quarters, or someone may enlighten me about how this can be still accomodated without any legal problem
- They want to avoid Porting which is a random unpredicatable phenomena from screwing up their calculations for the FY, and hence use the entire quota right at the start
- Once the Inventory build up is done, the dates would have to be made U or unavailable, as otherwise how would they honor the porters, since they already used the entire normal quota, and numbers would only come from spillover when it's applied

[immi2910]

That person might have entered a wrong date.

If you look at comments (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigrat.../i485-eb/12259) section someone did ask for the correct PD and the person did not give one.

However, I agree he probably has the date wrong. I just find it difficult to understand how someone can mess up PD, the most important date in the whole process .

[suninphx]

Sandeep, if the demand data is indeed correct, and they are honoring the movement with entire allocation in one shot, it seems to me:
- They have taken some special permission from some power to circumvent the law about percent allocation limit in the first three quarters, or someone may enlighten me about how this can be still accomodated without any legal problem
- They want to avoid Porting which is a random unpredicatable phenomena from screwing up their calculations for the FY, and hence use the entire quota right at the start
- Once the Inventory build up is done, the dates would have to be made U or unavailable, as otherwise how would they honor the porters, since they already used the entire normal quota, and numbers would only come from spillover when it's applied

Ok how about adding this one-
- they using numbers from previous FY with some 'special permission'

[immi2910]

Ok how about adding this one-
- they using numbers from previous FY with some 'special permission'

But they announced in Sept that all numbers have been used. Did you mean visa recapture?

[sandeep11]

Nishant-

They have twisted their own regulations many times before, seldom did they come up with explanation. I can't think of any other reason as to where they are getting the numbers from inspite of sending a URGENT memo on 9/15 or 9/16 that this years worth of numbers are done. The only other worst case scenario is they are anticipating Qtryly SO and allocating those. Either way they are in voilation.

With the porters, (though they can't be neglected completely) maybe the number is too small for them that they would give them a number along with the others when available from SO. Did they follow FIFO based on PD anytime .

I don't think they would ever make the dates U for EB2I but they would retrogress and stay put at a particular date once the pipeline is built. If the SO is sufficient to accomodate everyone in pipeline, (poters may come into this demand also) no numbers wasted, all is well, if they are in excess push them to the next year.

Sandeep, if the demand data is indeed correct, and they are honoring the movement with entire allocation in one shot, it seems to me:
- They have taken some special permission from some power to circumvent the law about percent allocation limit in the first three quarters, or someone may enlighten me about how this can be still accomodated without any legal problem
- They want to avoid Porting which is a random unpredicatable phenomena from screwing up their calculations for the FY, and hence use the
entire quota right at the start
- Once the Inventory build up is done, the dates would have to be made U or unavailable, as otherwise how would they honor the porters, since they already used the entire normal quota, and numbers would only come from spillover when it's applied

[nishant2200]

Yes, conspiracy theories!

It's a mystery. And I am pretty sure since it worked to our advantage so far, no one even in the NIU would have dared to bother to ask CO about it, which is totally fine and dandy!

Ok how about adding this one-
- they using numbers from previous FY with some 'special permission'

But they announced in Sept that all numbers have been used. Did you mean visa recapture?

[suninphx]

But they announced in Sept that all numbers have been used. Did you mean visa recapture?

you forgot 'special permission' part of my quote!

[gc_usa]

gc_usa, I remember your analysis done for last VB, and went and collected it.

I think basically you are trying to say this time that if quarterly spillover happens you don't see dates moving, I think. I may be confused by exact numbers you are putting in.

let's see, no one really knows, we all are proposing theories and hopes. Last time DOS did go against your analysis pointed out, but not anyone's fault, no one can really know their minds, what games they want to play.

If you notice most of my post says they have assigned 5.6k to EB2 IC. and people are getting approval so that is fact now.

When I say date will not move next month because I think there will be at least 3.5k demand from ROW in first qtr. and EB2 iC has used first qtr's spillover from EB5. Date can move only if EB1 demand is low and it can spill visas & EB2 row demand is < 3.5k + ( Spillover from EB1 )

if that the case then for every 100 spillover visas date will move roughly 1 month.

It does not mean if 5k excess means 50 months movement. Movement will be only up to where CO wants to go in 2008. If visas are less than 200 I also believe that CO can hold movement and move more and one last big movement next month.

[vedu]

The USCIS dashboard is updated...sharp decline in pending I-140 numbers in August, 11.

[veni001]

The USCIS dashboard is updated...sharp decline in pending I-140 numbers in August, 11.

vedu,
Thank you

10,424 i-140 completions in August, no wonder USCIS found sudden increase in demand for September. Only 3K decline in pending i-140's compared to July'11.