EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[pdfeb09]

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

Murali,

All the Very Best with your career and life. I have a couple of friends who made the same decision and are leading a happy life right now. One of them is in Chennai, no less. Hope that gives you some good things to dream about .

[Kanmani]

Murali,

Congratulations! Brave decision in my perspective. Chennai is my hometown too. All the best for your future.

[openaccount]

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

murali,

Wish you all the best.

As Q and others in this forums have been saying all along it is better no to plan anything around GC. After working for 6 years in a start-up and seeing all my colleagues who came after me moved to better positions in same start-up, i was stuck in same position for only reason GC/PD, i am also finally making a move to other company what ever happens it will, no matter if you have GC or not.

[murali83]

Thanks a lot guys. I have been flirting with this idea for quite sometime after my MBA. Most of the opportunities i was offered in india were in consulting, but i wanted to stick to marketing, and in specific in the manufacturing domain. So career always comes first to me and this opportunity will help me in that direction.

Sportsfan, thanks for the caution, will keep it in mind.

Spec, it was a tuf decision considering the fact that US does make life a little easy, but i am an eternal optimist and i see all the positives back home, will cross the bridge of negatives when i get there. The main concern i have is, I came to the US as a grad student right after my bachelors in india. Never ever worked in india, so i am sure i am in for some shocks.

Kanmani, i am so eager to go to saravana bhavan for dinner with my wife, first thing that comes to my mind when i think of living in chennai.

[chengisk]

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

Wow hearing the name Ashok Leyland just hit me with loads of nostalgia. I miss Madras... well Chennai. Good Luck on your new endeavor.

[Spectator]

Spec.

Now other question(s)

1- If EB3 are upgrading to EB2, then is it assumed that EB3 will move at a faster rate?

If you are talking about EB3-I, I think the effect will be minimal. The majority of upgrades come from PD that will not be Current next year. 2002 upgrades are not many of the total, judging by the minimal evidence available.

2- Or in anyway will benefit EB-WW(For eg. EB3-WW may get current due these (upgrades?)

I don't think it will help EB3-WW much either. If anything EB3-ROW has moved slower than expected for an unknown reason. Again any EB3-WW porting close to dates that will be Current is likely to be quite low.

What is likely to happen is that EB3-ROW will exhaust the backlog to July 2007 in FY2013. There will probably be about 12k left according to the Demand Data. That should take 6-8 months to deplete. CO will need to move the Cut Off Dates beyond July 2007 about 3-4 months before then to ensure continued demand throughout the year. I don't think he will make it Current.

If he doesn't then EB3-ROW would run out of demand. If that was the case at the end of the FY, EB3-I would be the beneficiary of Fall Across, but I don't seriously think that will happen. The same will probably happen to EB3-Mexico, but it is a bit uncertain for EB3-Philippines - they may have to wait until FY2014.

3 If SOFAD is very high for 2012/2011/2010/2009 and now expected to quite low - I know that you had given detailed explanations previously. Is there any change in logic now?) any chances for some large movement in next March/April?

It depends what you mean by large movement.

It depends on how USCIS decide to handle the backlogged EB2-WW applications and the amount of EB2-I porting.

The words in the Notes from the meeting with CO make me more pessimistic than I was. Mention of EB2-WW retrogression suggests they will process the backlog as well as a normal yearly run rate.

I would prefer to wait and see what CO actually says in the October VB.

[qesehmk]

Murali - my heartiest wishes to you!! I truly admire your decision for two reasons:
1. Simply for making a decision and not hanging in in Limbo which unfortunately many of us - (including this writer - oink oink!!) do.
2. Sharing it with us!

I don't think going back or staying here by itself is right or wrong. Every person has different circumstances and reasons and goals. But you clearly are one of the rare ones who seem to have figured it out clearly. Good luck and if you happen to visit Pune or Mumbai at all - eat one or two "Kacchi Dabeli" in my name!!!

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

[SmileBaba]

Spec/Q & other Champs..when do you guys think Eb2I with PD in Dec 2007 should expect actual green card in hand? Thanks in advance.

[dec2007]

Spec/Q & other Champs..when do you guys think Eb2I with PD in Dec 2007 should expect actual green card in hand? Thanks in advance.

I have the same question, please let us know ur prediction for dec 2007. mine is dec 31, 2007. Seeing the news about EB2 moving back to 2006, i might have to reassess my career plans.. thanks a lot.

[Spectator]

Spec/Q & other Champs..when do you guys think Eb2I with PD in Dec 2007 should expect actual green card in hand? Thanks in advance.

I have the same question, please let us know ur prediction for dec 2007. mine is dec 31, 2007. Seeing the news about EB2 moving back to 2006, i might have to reassess my career plans.. thanks a lot.

Guys,

I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.

You both have as much information as I do.

Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.

Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.

Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.

The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.

We all know there are other factors to take into account.

a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).

b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.

The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.


Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.

a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.

b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.

c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.

d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?

EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.

Add the number calculated above to the initial 2.8k already available and you should now have a figure for total visas available to EB2-I.


If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.

I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.

Good luck.

[suninphx]

Guys,

I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.

You both have as much information as I do.

Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.

Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.

Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.

The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.

We all know there are other factors to take into account.

a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).

b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.

The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.


Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.

a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.

b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.

c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.

d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?

EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.

You should now have a figure for visas available to EB2-I.


If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.

I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.

Good luck.

Spec - as usual , very well explained. Thank you!

[SmileBaba]

Guys,

I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.

You both have as much information as I do.

Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.

Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.

Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.

The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.

We all know there are other factors to take into account.

a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).

b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.

The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.


Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.

a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.

b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.

c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.

d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?

EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.

Add the number calculated above to the initial 2.8k already available and you should now have a figure for total visas available to EB2-I.


If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.

I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.

Good luck.

thanks a lot Spec! After taking e'thing into account looks like it could be difficult to cross EB2I PD of Dec 2007 next fiscal year.
Will wait for your predictions once October demand data and visa bulletin becomes available.

[billu77]

I think one should always hope for the best but be prepared for the worst case scenario. In this ever changing situation, nobody can predict when EB2 india will cross 2007.

Best case scenario: EB 2 India crosses 2007 and goes to mid 2008 by end of FY 2013
Worst Case Scenario: EB2 india does not even cross 2007 august due to porting and lack of spillovers.

In any case, I think we should not hope for any good news (dates crossing 2006) before April 2013 (not for the first half of FY 2013).

Luck plays a major part in this situation. Someone with PD of Dec 2008 may have been lucky to get GC in March 2012 before visas ran out while some of us whose PD is 2007 may well have to wait till atleast april or may of 2013 which is a difference of atleast one year.(even though we filed earlier!)

[redsox2009]

Any updates from Mumbai Consulate?

[qesehmk]

All Moderators / Gurus

I have created the 2013 thread. Right now it is only visible to moderators. Please go to the thread and secure your place - which then you can use throughout the year to update your own predictions.

Let me give you all 5 days and then we will open this thread for all users!

Happy forecasting!

Q

[murali83]

Murali - my heartiest wishes to you!! I truly admire your decision for two reasons:
1. Simply for making a decision and not hanging in in Limbo which unfortunately many of us - (including this writer - oink oink!!) do.
2. Sharing it with us!

I don't think going back or staying here by itself is right or wrong. Every person has different circumstances and reasons and goals. But you clearly are one of the rare ones who seem to have figured it out clearly. Good luck and if you happen to visit Pune or Mumbai at all - eat one or two "Kacchi Dabeli" in my name!!!

Thanks Q,

Cheers

Murali

[GCKnowHow]

That is an awesome decision. I'm too thinking of such a decision, will reach out to you (PM) once I made up my mind, probably this year end.
Wishing you all the very best

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

[Eb2_Dec07]

Spec and Q,

Once the VB is out today, we look forward to your latest predictions.

Please also emphasize when it might cross Dec 07 for EB2 I as a bench mark .

Many thanks.

[bvsamrat]

Perfecto

2.8 K it will be in strict sense. But as generally it is never the case and addtional visa numbers spill over always. But only be known on December/January. Till that time suspense may continue(frankly they may just allot 200-300 Visas/month in coming months)

Guys,

I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.

You both have as much information as I do.

Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.

Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.

Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.

The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.

We all know there are other factors to take into account.

a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).

b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.

The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.


Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.

a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.

b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.

c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.

d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?

EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.

Add the number calculated above to the initial 2.8k already available and you should now have a figure for total visas available to EB2-I.


If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.

I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.

Good luck.

[Spectator]

The last updated date has changed for the Demand Data, but as yet, it still links to the September figures.

Changed now. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[yank]

Demand data is finally out

[openaccount]

The last updated date has changed for the Demand Data, but as yet, it still links to the September figures.

Updated

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[yank]

Expect date to be in 2006. 1450 case prior to 2007, ROW close to 5K. Long wait is ahead...not a good way to start new yr..

[openaccount]

Quick calculation on how many EB2 ROW will be ready for approval starting October 1st.

EB2ROW added 2075 from Aug8 to Sept 10 at this rate there will be easily an additional 1500 added from Sept10-Sept30(3 weeks), which would bring total EB2ROW backlog ready to approve on Oct1st to a minimum 6350.

So EB2 starts FY2013 with 40040-6350--->33690

EB2 After ROW Backlog Usage----->33690(40040-6350)
EB2IC Regular Quota------------------->5606(EB2I--2800 will be consumed mostly cases prior to 2006/2007)
EB2 remaining--------------------------->28084(33690-5606)

If EB2ROW crosses 28084(in addition to 6350) limit then they will consume any SO from EB1/4/5. So for EB2I to get any SO EB2ROW usage should stay below 28084 in FY2013, which is below 3000 per month starting from November 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

No need to look at the VB now. By adding a row for cumulative demand prior to January 1, 2007, there is a message that EB2-I will start in 2006. EB2-C may be in 2008.

Sports that’s a great observation about the ROW for 2006 that certainly says it all. I believe the cumulative prior to 2007 has increased by ~ 600 which is porting happening primarily for those cases from EB3-I where 485 was filed back in 2007 itself, these cases are ready to approve. The could not be approved because EB2 -I was unavailable. Good luck to all.