EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[GhostWriter]

He has updated his thread (at the link below) with the post that everything seems fine and the case is approved. Tracking a random guy on trackitt and trying to fit a curve through one data point seems to be the only hope left for EB2-I !!!. He has also made a prediction about dates in his post, let us hope his ability matches his luck

some guy on Trackitt reported today he received GC approval email..he is eb2 I - PD april 2010 - does anyone know this guy personally? just to confirm if he/she is not joking or may be he/she probably received EAD approval notice and is confusing it with 485 approval?
link: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...1/am-i-greened

[qesehmk]

Spec - i must say - i am stumped there. NIW Schedule A etc all doesn't seem large enough. There are two-three other possibilities in my mind. I checked one and ruled out.

They are:

1. EB3 -> EB2 porting within WW. I actually looked through data and didn't find any significant reduction in EB3WW due to porting. So this factor is absent.
2. EB2ROW may have higher dependent ratio and higher approval ratio for 140 and 485. this we can possibly test with trackitt data but stil is not sufficient.
3. EB2ROW demand itself may actually be less but EB2ROW numbers could be used towards FB demand. This is purely speculation and I am trying to see if this could be true. Cursory look doesn't seem to indicate that is true.

So in the end - I am stumped!!

Q,

It is something I have noticed as well and commented on a few times. I agree it looks very odd and I don't have a definitive answer. I assure you that the PERM figures are correct.

Here's some ideas to mull over. I am not saying they account for everything, but some may have an effect.

a) There seems to be quite a large working backlog for EB2-WW cases, so the time for changes to become apparent is quite large. If this is true, then eventually we will see the EB2-WW numbers fall, but I don't know when.

It is for this reason that, although up to 8k EB2-WW cases may flow through to FY2013, I am not saying that they will necessarily use any of the available spillover to EB2 i.e. a reduction in underlying cases will at least balance the extra numbers from FY2012. I have no idea if this is correct. Clearly, any recent PERM approvals for EB3 are not going to have a very big effect when approvals still have a PD of 2006.

b) I did notice that EB2-Philippines approvals increased by 50% in FY2011. Although the numbers aren't large, it suggests that more Schedule A cases are being approved in EB2. These are outside the PERM base.

NIW is also outside PERM, but I don't believe this is a large factor.

c) I have to have suspicions that large sections of WW no longer use EB3 and the % of EB2 cases has risen. It is impossible to test, since EB3 Cut Off Dates are still back in 2006 and the apparent change did not begin until post 2008 at least. If correct, as I have mentioned before, this could be good news for EB3 eventually, although it is still several years away.

EB3-Mexico and EB3-ROW, at least, should exhaust the current backlog sometime during FY2013. Depending on how far CO pushes the dates beyond July 2007, we may get a glimpse of things to come. Unfortunately, the higher number of CP cases in EB3 and the aftermath of this year's debacle may conspire to limit the forward movement.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts.

It's helpful to review the ways you can file an I-140 without filing a PERM

-N.I.W. - erratic, unclear guidelines.
-Schedule A Group I - usually EB-3, but if applicants have been waiting abroad for a long time, they may have figured out a way to upgrade to EB-2 (by obtaining a masters in nursing/PT and adjusting the job requirements)
-Schedule A Group II - this is rarely used becuase it is so similar to EB-1A, but in the end the "thershold" is lower you only need to satisfy 2 criteria vs. the 3 criteria needed for EB-1A.
-Physician N.I.W. - 5 years in an underserved area, but for MDs doing already 3 years in a J-1 waiver, doing two more may be an attractive way of avoiding PERM altogether.

JV - thanks. Good info really. It might be worthwhile if you could someday put some numbers there.

Q, i didnt post this message for People waiting for GC's that they also can get greened ..just was answering vizard post that these kind of weird things also happen with USCIS nothing else

mesan - weird things sure do happen! totally agree.

[Spectator]

Spec - i must say - i am stumped there. NIW Schedule A etc all doesn't seem large enough. There are two-three other possibilities in my mind. I checked one and ruled out.

They are:

1. EB3 -> EB2 porting within WW. I actually looked through data and didn't find any significant reduction in EB3WW due to porting. So this factor is absent.
2. EB2ROW may have higher dependent ratio and higher approval ratio for 140 and 485. this we can possibly test with trackitt data but stil is not sufficient.
3. EB2ROW demand itself may actually be less but EB2ROW numbers could be used towards FB demand. This is purely speculation and I am trying to see if this could be true. Cursory look doesn't seem to indicate that is true.

So in the end - I am stumped!!

Q,

Thanks for your thoughts - all good ones which have some merit.

1. Clearly there is some WW porting. I agree the numbers aren't really good enough to put even a rough figure on it.

2. I think that may also be possible. The breakdown of approvals for many Countries within WW is slanted towards EB1 / EB2. That in turn may mean they are slightly older and have more chance to have dependents. Unlike both China and India, the student numbers in the USA are also relatively small.

3. I discount this at the moment.

It may be that several small effects all add up, or there is something that neither of us have taken into account.

Even with only about 18.5k PERM, it is still possible to get into the 30's if some of the factors we have discussed are adding to the numbers.

I guess, either way, we would have to see a drop in the next 2 years if the the numbers are going to fall. The problems of this year (FY2012) mean we now probably won't see the real effect in FY2013. That may mean a frustratingly long wait to answer the question.

[iamdeb]

Appreciate your prompt response Pedro!
So my approved I140 gives me fresh lease of 3 years on my H1b and I can work on H1B till 2015 with any employer willing to transfer my H1B.
I just have to start the GC process again within next 2 year and hope to port my old PD provided it hasn't been revoked.

[kd2008]

Listing approvals by FY.

2007 26,680
2008 28,368
2009 15,728
2010 37,173
2011 25,133
2012 13,872 (Q1 to Q3)

[Spectator]

Listing approvals by FY.

2007 26,680
2008 28,368
2009 15,728
2010 37,173
2011 25,133
2012 13,872 (Q1 to Q3)

kd,

I hope you don’t mind me moving your post to the forum for a discussion.

I believe your figures relate to approvals for M-P-ROW in a given FY, although your 2007 figure appears to be a bit apples to oranges because it is only for PD 2007 cases.

On that basis, I have marginally different numbers:

FY2007 - 53,693 (of which 26,680 are PD2007)
FY2008 - 29,308
FY2009 - 16,003
FY2010 - 37,255
FY2011 - 25,142
FY2012 - 13,875 (Q1 to Q3)

I chose not to use FY periods for a few reasons.

a) Most importantly, Cut Off Dates move by Calendar Year and Month. It can take several FY for a CY to become complete.

b) Numbers approved in a FY cover several PD years. The number relating to the same FY PD has been quite variable.

c) Numbers approved in a FY reflect DOL processing efficiency and other priorities such as backlog reduction (as evidenced by FY2009/10).

In FY2009, less than 23% of approvals were actually for cases submitted in FY2009. In fact, only 18 cases (of 29,502) had a PD in 2009 itself (8 for M-P-ROW).

This “lumpiness” could have been a factor in M-P-ROW numbers, but the situation has stabilized since that time. In FY2011, about 61% of M-P-ROW cases approved were also received in FY2011. It is never going to be 100% because of processing times.

Over time the following % in M-P-ROW received in a FY were also approved in the same FY.

FY2007 - 73.6%
FY2008 - 76.4%
FY2009 - 22.6%
FY2010 - 31.7%
FY2011 - 61.0%
FY2012 - 55.5% (to Q3)

For approvals for all Countries, the % are:

FY2007 – 75.4%
FY2008 – 77.2%
FY2009 - 22.9%
FY2010 - 37.2%
FY2011 - 68.1%
FY2012 - 59.1% (to Q3)

[Jonty Rhodes]

Appreciate your prompt response Pedro!
So my approved I140 gives me fresh lease of 3 years on my H1b and I can work on H1B till 2015 with any employer willing to transfer my H1B.
I just have to start the GC process again within next 2 year and hope to port my old PD provided it hasn't been revoked.

Everything that has been said so far is true. You can transfer H1B if your new employer is willing to do that which will be valid for 3 years. I am assuming that you are expecting your new employer to file your GC under EB2. In that case, you have to have PERM and I-140 filed again with a new employer regardless of your old I-140 is revoked or not by your previous employer.

This has been discussed before when I asked a similar question. So let me take it a step further by giving you some more details about retention of PD on your old I-140.

The USCIS regulations at 8 CFR 204.5(e) provides for the retention of a previously established priority date under the circumstances described below:

(e) Retention of section 203(b) (1), (2), or (3) priority date.

A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple petitions under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date. A petition revoked under sections 204(e) or 205 of the Act will not confer a priority date, nor will any priority date be established as a result of a denied petition. A priority date is not transferable to another alien.

Now you may ask that what if your previous employer withdraws the approved I-140 petition and the USCIS then revokes it?

In this case, unless the USCIS revokes the petition for fraud or misrepresentation, you get to keep the priority date even if it is revoked for any other reason.

The USCIS, in the Adjudicator's Field Manual, at Chapter 22.2(b)(5)(A)(5), makes it clear that only a revocation based on a finding of fraud or misrepresentation results in a loss of the priority date:

(A) Determining the Priority Date.

In general, if a petition is supported by an individual labor certification issued by DOL, the priority date is the earliest date upon which the labor certification application was filed with DOL. In those cases where the alien’s priority date is established by the filing of the labor certification, once the alien’s Form I-140 petition has been approved, the alien beneficiary retains his or her priority date as established by the filing of the labor certification for any future Form I-140 petitions, unless the previously approved Form I-140 petition has been revoked because of fraud or willful misrepresentation. This includes cases where a change of employer has occurred; however, the new employer must obtain a new labor certification if the classification requested requires a labor certification.

Here is the link.

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/A.../0-0-0-15.html

Look for Chapter 22 and the related provisions that I mentioned here.

[justvisiting]

Also, the definition of "fraud or willful misrepresentation" is quite stringent. USCIS or DOS (if it's a C.P. case) have to prove this by clear and convincing evidence. On the other hand, they can revoke a petition based on more likely than not for pretty much any reason they want.

The practical meaning of this is that USCIS/DOS, when suspecting fraud, usually revoke the petition based on some other minor technical excuse. It is easier and less likely to be challenged in court, and the beneficiary gets to keep his PD.

Everything that has been said so far is true. You can transfer H1B if your new employer is willing to do that which will be valid for 3 years. I am assuming that you are expecting your new employer to file your GC under EB2. In that case, you have to have PERM and I-140 filed again with a new employer regardless of your old I-140 is revoked or not by your previous employer.

This has been discussed before when I asked a similar question. So let me take it a step further by giving you some more details about retention of PD on your old I-140.

The USCIS regulations at 8 CFR 204.5(e) provides for the retention of a previously established priority date under the circumstances described below:

(e) Retention of section 203(b) (1), (2), or (3) priority date.

A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple petitions under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date. A petition revoked under sections 204(e) or 205 of the Act will not confer a priority date, nor will any priority date be established as a result of a denied petition. A priority date is not transferable to another alien.

Now you may ask that what if your previous employer withdraws the approved I-140 petition and the USCIS then revokes it?

In this case, unless the USCIS revokes the petition for fraud or misrepresentation, you get to keep the priority date even if it is revoked for any other reason.

The USCIS, in the Adjudicator's Field Manual, at Chapter 22.2(b)(5)(A)(5), makes it clear that only a revocation based on a finding of fraud or misrepresentation results in a loss of the priority date:

(A) Determining the Priority Date.

In general, if a petition is supported by an individual labor certification issued by DOL, the priority date is the earliest date upon which the labor certification application was filed with DOL. In those cases where the alien’s priority date is established by the filing of the labor certification, once the alien’s Form I-140 petition has been approved, the alien beneficiary retains his or her priority date as established by the filing of the labor certification for any future Form I-140 petitions, unless the previously approved Form I-140 petition has been revoked because of fraud or willful misrepresentation. This includes cases where a change of employer has occurred; however, the new employer must obtain a new labor certification if the classification requested requires a labor certification.

Here is the link.

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/A.../0-0-0-15.html

Look for Chapter 22 and the related provisions that I mentioned here.

[Kanmani]

USCIS Performance Data ending June 2012 (3rd Qtr) is available now .....http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2012_qtr3.pdf

EB I-485 Approvals -- 104,274
I-140 Immigrant Worke -- 51,964

[Spectator]

USCIS Performance Data ending June 2012 (3rd Qtr) is available now .....http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2012_qtr3.pdf

EB I-485 Approvals -- 104,274
I-140 Immigrant Worke -- 51,964

Thanks Kanmani.

[lft2hou]

The I-485 Employment Adjustment data shows "Receipts - 124,027" and "Approvals - 104,274" from Oct 2011 to June 2012.
Does this number - 19,753 (Receipts - Approvals) include all the EB2 - India I-485 applications USCIS received before the EB2-India dates retrogressed? Meaning, most EB2-India applicants with PDs upto 1st May 2010?

Can one of the gurus educate me on this?

[Spectator]

The I-485 Employment Adjustment data shows "Receipts - 124,027" and "Approvals - 104,274" from Oct 2011 to June 2012.
Does this number - 19,753 (Receipts - Approvals) include all the EB2 - India I-485 applications USCIS received before the EB2-India dates retrogressed? Meaning, most EB2-India applicants with PDs upto 1st May 2010?

Can one of the gurus educate me on this?

lft2hou,

Yes it should include all new EB2-I receipts before it became Unavailable in June.

You can't just deduct Approvals from Receipts to arrive at a number.

The approvals only represent AOS cases and exclude CP cases. A figure of 104k probably translates to 115-120k total approvals.

Compared to FY2011 Receipts for I-485 Employment Cases for the same period are nearly 68k higher. Not all that increase necessarily relates to EB2-IC receipts.

[qesehmk]

lfthou - these numbers are quite difficult to disset. These numbers came from whoever was current at that point of time. For the categories that are current - EB1 and EB2ROW teh demand is pretty much rolling demand since they don't have waiting time. However for EB2I - these applications are post Jul 2007 which is when the last date was. Since the EB2I date moved upto May 2010 and then retreated back .... it means all those numbers include

EB1 3/4th 2012 demand
EB2 ROW 3/4th 2012 demand
EB3 partial demand (whjatever the date movement was)
AND
EB2IC Jul 2007-May 2010 demand (@90% we should assume since 10% people may not be able to file for whatever reason).

Makes sense?

p.s. a rough deconstruct could look like as follows:

Total - 124K
EB1 - 3/4* 40K (assuming they will fully utilize quota) = 30K
EB2ROW - 3/4*40K ( assuming they will fully utilize quota) = 30K
EB3 - 10-20K (corresponding to date movement) = 15K
EB4 - 3/4*9.5K = 7K
EB5 - 3/4*6K = 4K

subtotal ex EB2IC = 86K

So Eb2IC = 40K.

This implies 40K EB2IC demand bet jul 2007 and May 2010 i.e. 32 months.

Not bad at all ... that's only 1.2K per month. Even if you assume 20% is left out i.e. 1.5K is true demand.... this bodes very well for EB2IC who should see approvals in 3-4 years max since PD as opposed to 5 years norm.

Spec - other gurus tear this apart!!

The I-485 Employment Adjustment data shows "Receipts - 124,027" and "Approvals - 104,274" from Oct 2011 to June 2012.
Does this number - 19,753 (Receipts - Approvals) include all the EB2 - India I-485 applications USCIS received before the EB2-India dates retrogressed? Meaning, most EB2-India applicants with PDs upto 1st May 2010?

Can one of the gurus educate me on this?

[Spectator]

lfthou - these numbers are quite difficult to disset. These numbers came from whoever was current at that point of time. For the categories that are current - EB1 and EB2ROW teh demand is pretty much rolling demand since they don't have waiting time. However for EB2I - these applications are post Jul 2007 which is when the last date was. Since the EB2I date moved upto May 2010 and then retreated back .... it means all those numbers include

EB1 3/4th 2012 demand
EB2 ROW 3/4th 2012 demand
EB3 partial demand (whjatever the date movement was)
AND
EB2IC Jul 2007-May 2010 demand (@90% we should assume since 10% people may not be able to file for whatever reason).

Makes sense?

p.s. a rough deconstruct could look like as follows:

Total - 124K
EB1 - 3/4* 40K (assuming they will fully utilize quota) = 30K
EB2ROW - 3/4*40K ( assuming they will fully utilize quota) = 30K
EB3 - 10-20K (corresponding to date movement) = 15K
EB4 - 3/4*9.5K = 7K
EB5 - 3/4*6K = 4K

subtotal ex EB2IC = 86K

So Eb2IC = 40K.

This implies 40K EB2IC demand bet jul 2007 and May 2010 i.e. 32 months.

Not bad at all ... that's only 1.2K per month. Even if you assume 20% is left out i.e. 1.5K is true demand.... this bodes very well for EB2IC who should see approvals in 3-4 years max since PD as opposed to 5 years norm.

Spec - other gurus tear this apart!!

Q,

An initial thought is that since EB3 only moved through Cut Off Dates that were Current in July 2007, relatively few new receipts would be generated for EB3.

EB2-ROW (I think you are using it for M-P-ROW) don't have access to all 40k so their share might be about 26k rather than 30k if they were going to hit the max.

That would increase EB2-IC to potentially 55-60k which appears to be about right. It is difficult to tell. Remember a good number of those EB2-IC receipts have also been approved in FY2012.

[Kanmani]

Q, this 40k IC receipts contradicts your claim of 30k sofad in FY2012. We have approximately 35K pre-adjudicated under IC queue asper last demand data released.

Spec, do you think the IC receipts should be as high as 60-65K or the sofad was low around 20K ? Which one is correct?

[qesehmk]

Spec - yes that is possible. EB3ROW receipts could be lower than that. But it could also be higher than that ... since for a backlogged category you can expect them to move at least quota worth dates advance? right ?

Q,

An initial thought is that since EB3 only moved through Cut Off Dates that were Current in July 2007, relatively few new receipts would be generated for EB3.

EB2-ROW (I think you are using it for M-P-ROW) don't have access to all 40k so their share might be about 26k rather than 30k if they were going to hit the max.

That would increase EB2-IC to potentially 55-60k which appears to be about right. It is difficult to tell. Remember a good number of those EB2-IC receipts have also been approved in FY2012.

Q, this 40k IC receipts contradicts your claim of 30k sofad in FY2012. We have approximately 35K pre-adjudicated under IC queue asper last demand data released.

Spec, do you think the IC receipts should be as high as 60-65K or the sofad was low around 20K ? Which one is correct?

Kanmani - receipts and SOFAD are two different things. So the receipts by themselves won't contradict the claim. However if and when the claim is contradicted .. I don't have a problem since I never am attached to a number anyway. With better information we should always be open to change our minds

[GhostWriter]

The approvals will also include I-485s filed in prior years where as receipts are only for this year. For first two rows Asylee and Refugee adjustment, approvals are more than receipts.
Another reason why the difference will not represent the increase in inventory.

The I-485 Employment Adjustment data shows "Receipts - 124,027" and "Approvals - 104,274" from Oct 2011 to June 2012.
Does this number - 19,753 (Receipts - Approvals) include all the EB2 - India I-485 applications USCIS received before the EB2-India dates retrogressed? Meaning, most EB2-India applicants with PDs upto 1st May 2010?

Can one of the gurus educate me on this?

lft2hou,

Yes it should include all new EB2-I receipts before it became Unavailable in June.

You can't just deduct Approvals from Receipts to arrive at a number.

[lft2hou]

Spec and Q, thanks for your responses.

I wasn't thinking about the pending I-485 applications from all the previous years i.e. prior to Oct 2011.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani - receipts and SOFAD are two different things. So the receipts by themselves won't contradict the claim. However if and when the claim is contradicted .. I don't have a problem since I never am attached to a number anyway. With better information we should always be open to change our minds

Q, I am just a spectator in the number game . I was active in number analysis before joining this forum, ( never heard about I V and unfortunate enough to lose Q/S/V/T/N s' contributions there). You guys made me stop hurting numbers. They are fine now .

[GhostWriter]

Q, according to the May-2012 inventory EB2-IC has roughly 47K cases for 2007-2010, you can reduce 1K for Jan-June 2007 cases and you get 46K for July 2007 onwards.

Assume 25K approvals for EB2-IC (using Spec's older post).

Use the fact that the Oct-2011 inventory report had 11.5K cases for 2006 and 2007 for EB2-IC, assuming all of them were approved and some more, say 12K (11.5K + 0.5K) we get remaining 13K approvals for EB2-IC from I-485 receipts in 2012.

So total 2012 EB2-IC I-485 receipts = I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + approvals for 2012 cases = 46K + 13K = 59K.

Also 59K / 32 months = 1.8K/month (we are not adding PWMBs but also not subtracting porters)

2008 PDs on average already crossed the 4 year max mark in June-2012 and 2009 PDs will cross that mark in summer 2013. But to be fair many 2008 PDs did get approved in 4 years in 2012. The remainder will bring the average to 5

So Eb2IC = 40K.

This implies 40K EB2IC demand bet jul 2007 and May 2010 i.e. 32 months.

Not bad at all ... that's only 1.2K per month. Even if you assume 20% is left out i.e. 1.5K is true demand.... this bodes very well for EB2IC who should see approvals in 3-4 years max since PD as opposed to 5 years norm.

Spec - other gurus tear this apart!!

[Spectator]

Q, I am just a spectator in the number game . I was active in number analysis before joining this forum, ( never heard about I V and unfortunate enough to lose Q/S/V/T/N s' contributions there). You guys made me stop hurting numbers. They are fine now .

Kanmani,

Your comment cracked me up! Sometimes I feel the same way. You are just bending them to your will!

Don't stop the torture, because you often bring quite insightful viewpoints to the forum.

I agree with your previous comment that the numbers are very much interrelated and a change in one has an impact on others. I couldn't concisely answer your question, but I certainly don't think SOFAD is anywhere as low as 20k. I suspect it is a minimum of 25k, but it somewhat depends on how many visas EB2-WW have used.

PS I never posted in that other forum, so you didn't miss anything from me. I do wish Teddy posted here more often - I miss his contributions.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - Spec is right. The hurts stops two ways - 1) You gain better clarity and it calms your nerves. 2) You give and say whatever!!

Sometimes - with all the number crunching -- I too feel like going #2.. An excellent example is the brief discussion I had with Spec a few posts above about EB2ROW numbers. But we plough on with what we know and stay flexible to admit that we may be wrong and there are unknown unknowns out there.

Q, I am just a spectator in the number game . I was active in number analysis before joining this forum, ( never heard about I V and unfortunate enough to lose Q/S/V/T/N s' contributions there). You guys made me stop hurting numbers. They are fine now .

....So total 2012 EB2-IC I-485 receipts = I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + approvals for 2012 cases = 46K + 13K = 59K.

Ghost - thanks. 59K could very well be the number but for a different reason as laid out below.

To me the formula above needs to be as follows:

total 2012 EB2-IC I-485 receipts = I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + "Documentarily NOT qualified EB2IC cases" - Oct 2011 EB2IC inventory + total projected approvals for 2012 cases * 3/4 = 47K + ? - 11K + 25K * 3/4 ( assuming 25K SOFAD. You can plug in whatever you believe in).
= 45K + ? = 45K + 15K (if assumed 25% of total cases are NOT yet documentarily qualified). = 60K

What do you think ? Does this make sense?

[Kanmani]

Thanks Spec and Q. I am fortunate to follow your numbers and predictions.

As a beginner in the early days, I thought you guys are way too pessimistic ( still continues occasionally) but within a year i realized that you have a different but strong pattern in chasing the numbers which turns out to be the reality.

[GhostWriter]

Q, few things
1. If we are using I-485 inventory then we don't need to account for cases that are not yet documentarily qualified. If we used the demand data then we would have to.

2. There won't be any I-485 receipts for EB2-IC in Q4 as the category was unavailable. So we don't need the 3/4 factor. (Basically all the recipts for EB2-IC have been counted in the I-485 report already. )

3. The Oct 2011 EB2IC inventory is already incorporated in approvals for 2012 cases. So approvals for 2012 cases = Total approvals (or SOFAD) - EB2-IC inventory (2006 & 2007)

So the calculation becomes
I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + Approvals for 2012 cases = 46K + (25K - 12K) = 59K (~60K)

What do you say ?
There certainly are other fine tunings that can be done - I only took 2006 & 2007 Oct-2011 inventory numbers, there would have been some approvals for prior years and not all of 2006 and 2007 from OCt-2011 inventory would have been approved. But the two are small and in opposite directions. Roughly i would say 60K I-485 EB2-IC receipts for FY-2012 should be a reasonable estimate.

The question i have for you, Spec and others is that if EB2-IC receipts were 60K that gives receipts for rest of EB as 64K (124K - 60K). If we scale this up for full year we get 85K (64*4/3) for rest of EB. Actually EB-ROW has also been at 2009 for Q4 so they wont have any receipts and the number probably will be between 75K-80K. How does this compare with EB (excluding EB2IC) for 2011 or 2010 ? Any ideas. This will be an important factor in determining SOFAD for 2013 for EB2-IC.

Ghost - thanks. 59K could very well be the number but for a different reason as laid out below.

To me the formula above needs to be as follows:

total 2012 EB2-IC I-485 receipts = I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + "Documentarily NOT qualified EB2IC cases" - Oct 2011 EB2IC inventory + total projected approvals for 2012 cases * 3/4 = 47K + ? - 11K + 25K * 3/4 ( assuming 25K SOFAD. You can plug in whatever you believe in).
= 45K + ? = 45K + 15K (if assumed 25% of total cases are NOT yet documentarily qualified). = 60K

What do you think ? Does this make sense?

[qesehmk]

Ghost I disagree that documentarily unqualified cases should be ignored. But if you ignore that then the number will actually go down according to my formula. Right?

The 3/4th factor is for approvals as opposed to receipts since I assumed 25K as full year number. If 25K is YTD through Q3 end then don't need that factor.

I am not sure I would agree w #3. That seems wrong too.

But regardless I think we can certainly agree that EB2IC receipts were between 45-60K. Right? Over ~32 months that is 1.8K max which is way less than 2.8-3K normal demand.

Now if you think about EB2ROW demand - it must follow the same destruction as EB2IC. So if EB2IC is seeing 2/3 of normal demand then EB2ROWMP should also see equivalent reduction. Generally EB2IC normal demand is quite same as EB2IC demand. So 22-25K max receipts for EB2ROWMP should be expected. However last year 10K EB2ROWMP were pending on 1st Oct 2011. I do not believe drastic reduction in that number given that even EB2ROW requires due diligence.

So all in all I absolutely would expect EB2ROW to provide at least 4K of SOFAD (excluding the ~5K extra from FB).

ps. - May leave for labor day weekend early. in that case I wish you all a happy safe weekend!! Enjoy the end of Summer!

Q, few things
1. If we are using I-485 inventory then we don't need to account for cases that are not yet documentarily qualified. If we used the demand data then we would have to.

2. There won't be any I-485 receipts for EB2-IC in Q4 as the category was unavailable. So we don't need the 3/4 factor. (Basically all the recipts for EB2-IC have been counted in the I-485 report already. )

3. The Oct 2011 EB2IC inventory is already incorporated in approvals for 2012 cases. So approvals for 2012 cases = Total approvals (or SOFAD) - EB2-IC inventory (2006 & 2007)

So the calculation becomes
I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + Approvals for 2012 cases = 46K + (25K - 12K) = 59K (~60K)

What do you say ?
There certainly are other fine tunings that can be done - I only took 2006 & 2007 Oct-2011 inventory numbers, there would have been some approvals for prior years and not all of 2006 and 2007 from OCt-2011 inventory would have been approved. But the two are small and in opposite directions. Roughly i would say 60K I-485 EB2-IC receipts for FY-2012 should be a reasonable estimate.

The question i have for you, Spec and others is that if EB2-IC receipts were 60K that gives receipts for rest of EB as 64K (124K - 60K). If we scale this up for full year we get 85K (64*4/3) for rest of EB. Actually EB-ROW has also been at 2009 for Q4 so they wont have any receipts and the number probably will be between 75K-80K. How does this compare with EB (excluding EB2IC) for 2011 or 2010 ? Any ideas. This will be an important factor in determining SOFAD for 2013 for EB2-IC.