EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[chengisk]

They can be found at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rmancedata.cfm

I have already updated the figures in the various threads in the FACTS & DATA section.

I bet you have four heads, eight hands and work on four computers. Thanks but it might take more than fours hours for me to figure out your updates.

[Newbie2009]

Thanks for answering my questions. Adding to my profile, I already have an EAD but not using it, still on H1.



Eb2visa, just wondering, why do you think the H1 extension would be for 1 yr and not 3 yrs? Also, for point no. 3, you said I can port using AC21. Does this mean using EAD (which I was hoping I could avoid)? Can you please clarify?

Also, if I can get opinions on my questions (on my previous post) from Spec & Kamnani, that will be great

[wavelet3000]

Long Term EB Prospects

PERM data suggest 48K underlying demand net of denials and withdrawals. We can also probably say that FY2012 is an average year in terms of underlying demand given that US economy is growing but not booming. Next 8 years or so will probably average the same.

Some of 48K perms are for porting and thus are duplicate. Since porting applies to entire EB3, for the sake of roundness, let's assume 8K is for porting. That leaves 40K of new demand for combined EB2 and EB3.

With somewhat optimistic assumption regarding dependents and ignoring EB2-NIW, this would translate into at least 80K of new 485 applications, spread over the years when underlying PDs become current. This number is right on target with combined EB2 and EB3 quota.

This means that over the long run average wait times will remain the same. Without HR3012, EB2-I will continue to relatively retrogress, EB2-C will very slowly catch up with EB2-WW, EB2-WW will remain current. EB3 will eventually start to catch up with EB2 assuming most new perms qualify and that porting serves as an escape valve to help equalize cutoff dates between EB2 and EB3. With HR3012, the situation will be similar except EB2-I and EB2-WW will be both retrogressed at the same COD.

So all in all, the long run prospects are not very appealing in the absence of an overall increase in EB quotas. The current quotas were set in 1990. Over 20+ years accumulated backlog has been relatively modest (300K?), especially given incomplete utilization of quotas due to INS/USCIS inefficiencies, and "special" years with high H1B limits. So you can say that as of 1990, the quotas were set roughly right. However, in those years US population has grown by 20%, labor force grown has by 17%, and GDP (real or nominal) has grown even more. I would say it makes sense to index EB quotas to population, determined at each census. Additional 28K per year till 2020 would reduce the backlog nicely.

Some say that long wait times discourage additional applicants and raising limits would not solve problems as more people will apply. In my view, the encouragement effect will be limited if H1B limits stay the same for now, since it is H1B pool that feeds GC pool most compared to direct applicants from abroad. Over even longer time, H1B limits would also need changing but doing so could be done with an eye of targeting a better H1B/GC ratio that helps keep wait times reasonable.

[Kanmani]

Hi All,
I am new to this forum and have some questions which I have jotted down below. Can someone please answer these or point me to a link where I can find the answers to

these?

Currently working for Company A for which my labor was filed (My PD is 2009), 140 approved, 485 filed, 180 days passed, currently on H1 which expires in end of 2013.

1. My job title & duties have been the same since I joined ( > 4 yrs) and my labor was filed for the same job title & duties. If I continue working for Company A and

supposedly my GC is approved, would I still need to stay in company A for 6 more months after receiving my GC? Since I have already served for > 180 days after filing

485, can I leave company A within one month of receiving the GC?

2. I suppose I can join a company B on H1 (same job title & duties), but will the H1 be filed for another 3 yrs in the new company or will it expire in end of 2013?

Meaning, considering the status I am in, can I join (theoretically) n number of companies with always 3 yrs of H1 (till I get my GC)?

3. If I join company B on H1 (same job title & duties), do I need to restart GC there (labor, 140 etc) or can I always get 3 yrs of extension on H1 till my GC comes?


Thanks in Advance !!!

Newbie2009

Newbie2009,

Please read my posts related to AC21 here .....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ussion&p=28058

1. With respect to 180 days employment after GC, that was in practice before AC21 came into picture. During pre-Ac21, there was no option for job change, you must work for the sponsor until and after GC(atleast 180 days after GC). Lawyers have no answer whether the pre-Ac21 rule is over-written by the current law or not. The reason is that Ac21 job porting rule is not clear and it doesn't elaborate anything about job change after GC. It says the I-485 application is protected if you change your job after 180 days of pending I-485. For this reason, the lawyers kept pre-AC21 practice for job changing after GC and Ac21 rule for changing jobs before GC.
So the conclusion is if you haven't invoked AC21 during pending GC period, then wait for 180 days after GC.

2.You can use the approved I-140 for any number of H1b extensions with any employer. But 3/2/1 year extension is purely based upon your luck and adjudicator's state of mind on that particular day . My husband got one year extension for no reason.

3. please read my earlier posts in that link.

All the best!

[Spectator]

Long Term EB Prospects

PERM data suggest 48K underlying demand net of denials and withdrawals. We can also probably say that FY2012 is an average year in terms of underlying demand given that US economy is growing but not booming. Next 8 years or so will probably average the same.

Some of 48K perms are for porting and thus are duplicate. Since porting applies to entire EB3, for the sake of roundness, let's assume 8K is for porting. That leaves 40K of new demand for combined EB2 and EB3.

With somewhat optimistic assumption regarding dependents and ignoring EB2-NIW, this would translate into at least 80K of new 485 applications, spread over the years when underlying PDs become current. This number is right on target with combined EB2 and EB3 quota.

This means that over the long run average wait times will remain the same. Without HR3012, EB2-I will continue to relatively retrogress, EB2-C will very slowly catch up with EB2-WW, EB2-WW will remain current. EB3 will eventually start to catch up with EB2 assuming most new perms qualify and that porting serves as an escape valve to help equalize cutoff dates between EB2 and EB3. With HR3012, the situation will be similar except EB2-I and EB2-WW will be both retrogressed at the same COD.

So all in all, the long run prospects are not very appealing in the absence of an overall increase in EB quotas. The current quotas were set in 1990. Over 20+ years accumulated backlog has been relatively modest (300K?), especially given incomplete utilization of quotas due to INS/USCIS inefficiencies, and "special" years with high H1B limits. So you can say that as of 1990, the quotas were set roughly right. However, in those years US population has grown by 20%, labor force grown has by 17%, and GDP (real or nominal) has grown even more. I would say it makes sense to index EB quotas to population, determined at each census. Additional 28K per year till 2020 would reduce the backlog nicely.

Some say that long wait times discourage additional applicants and raising limits would not solve problems as more people will apply. In my view, the encouragement effect will be limited if H1B limits stay the same for now, since it is H1B pool that feeds GC pool most compared to direct applicants from abroad. Over even longer time, H1B limits would also need changing but doing so could be done with an eye of targeting a better H1B/GC ratio that helps keep wait times reasonable.

wavelet3000,

Welcome to the forum and thank you for such an interesting post.

A few thoughts came to mind that you may wish to incorporate, or think about.

8k for porting would indicate 16k I-485. That is probably too high, despite CO's comments.

If the figure were to include cases denied at I-140, duplicate cases between spouses etc and porting it may not be unreasonable.

I think it is fine to ignore NIW, but you have not mentioned a far larger group outside the PERM system.

Schedule A workers also do not require a PERM and the numbers are not insubstantial. Until recently, approvals in EB3 had diminished because previous visa recapture legislation had cleared most cases up to 2006. The EB3-WW Cut off Date has only passed that in the last year. The majority of Philippines demand probably comes from Schedule A Nurses & Physical Therapists.

In general, I do think your conclusions are sound. Without more visas, it isn't a particularly rosy picture.

Both 2007 and 2008 PDs have very high overall numbers and no EB3 Cut Off Dates have moved through that period. By 2011 the number of PERM Certifications for all Countries other than India have approximately halved from that high. Eventually that might provide some relief.

India, on the other hand, with the exception of 2009, has maintained the 2007/8 numbers. 2011 exceeded them, but that was probably due to porting cases etc.

This has resulted in a gradual increase in the % of Certified PERM that India represents for each PD year.

2007 - 31.4%
2008 - 36.1%
2009 - 39.5%
2010 - 51.3%
2011 - 56.0%

I'm not saying that the waiting times have less effect for some Countries than others (it is more complicated than that), but the decline in other Countries PERM numbers is quite noticeable. Had it not happened, the situation would be impossible.

[Kanmani]

pdfeb09,
1. Yes. Attorneys are counting 180 days by excluding the RD . I have no comments for the rest of your doubts.

[veni001]

They can be found at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rmancedata.cfm

I have already updated the figures in the various threads in the FACTS & DATA section.

The decisions actually cover up to about July 13, so slightly more than three quarters.

Certifications to date by fiscal quarter are as follows:

Q1 ----- 9,508
Q2 ----- 7,086
Q3 ---- 17,255
Q4 ----- 2,104

Total - 35,953

Q3 certifications were more than Q1 and Q2 combined.

India represented 55% of all Certifications.

The figures are a confirmation of the recent PERM factsheet.

Spec,

Thank you, USCIS Dashboard updated with June 2012 data.

[wavelet3000]

wavelet3000,

Welcome to the forum and thank you for such an interesting post.

Thanks. I've been following this forum for 1.5 years and could contain myself no longer.

A few thoughts came to mind that you may wish to incorporate, or think about.

8k for porting would indicate 16k I-485. That is probably too high, despite CO's comments.

If the figure were to include cases denied at I-140, duplicate cases between spouses etc and porting it may not be unreasonable.

I just wanted to get a round number.

I think it is fine to ignore NIW, but you have not mentioned a far larger group outside the PERM system.

Schedule A workers also do not require a PERM and the numbers are not insubstantial. Until recently, approvals in EB3 had diminished because previous visa recapture legislation had cleared most cases up to 2006. The EB3-WW Cut off Date has only passed that in the last year. The majority of Philippines demand probably comes from Schedule A Nurses & Physical Therapists.

I didn't know of Schedule A workers. Is there a way to estimate number of those aside from DOS demand data?

In general, I do think your conclusions are sound. Without more visas, it isn't a particularly rosy picture.

Both 2007 and 2008 PDs have very high overall numbers and no EB3 Cut Off Dates have moved through that period. By 2011 the number of PERM Certifications for all Countries other than India have approximately halved from that high. Eventually that might provide some relief.

India, on the other hand, with the exception of 2009, has maintained the 2007/8 numbers. 2011 exceeded them, but that was probably due to porting cases etc.

This has resulted in a gradual increase in the % of Certified PERM that India represents for each PD year.

2007 - 31.4%
2008 - 36.1%
2009 - 39.5%
2010 - 51.3%
2011 - 56.0%

I'm not saying that the waiting times have less effect for some Countries than others (it is more complicated than that), but the decline in other Countries PERM numbers is quite noticeable. Had it not happened, the situation would be impossible.

I would be interesting to try to forecast PERM demand numbers for I, C, RoW, M and P based on macro factors and H1B stats to see where these are heading long-term and why.

[jackbrown_890]

some guy on Trackitt reported today he received GC approval email..he is eb2 I - PD april 2010 - does anyone know this guy personally? just to confirm if he/she is not joking or may be he/she probably received EAD approval notice and is confusing it with 485 approval?
link: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...1/am-i-greened

[chengisk]

some guy on Trackitt reported today he received GC approval email..he is eb2 I - PD april 2010 - does anyone know this guy personally? just to confirm if he/she is not joking or may be he/she probably received EAD approval notice and is confusing it with 485 approval?
link: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...1/am-i-greened

There have been odd reports of such happenings in the past. Despite that this seems pretty strange. He seems to be very sure that it is his 485 as he already has his 2 year AP/EAD.

[vizcard]

First guess is it's a mistake in the system. No one can get greened if it's U. I'd find it hard to believe even if this person was ROW.

[qesehmk]

Hey Spec - why wouldn't the ROW EB2 (or even EB3) numbers here won't match with the level of approvals we are seeing for their respective categories.

e.g. for EB2 ROW these numbers would imply a demand of hardly 14-20K per year last 3-4 years. However in reality their approval levels are always around 30K.

PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown) for ROW, Mexico & Philippines

These are total PERM Certifications and therefore includes both EB2 and EB3 cases.

Note:- Extracting the Priority Date from the case number is not a perfect solution. Some cases will have actual PDs later than the figures might suggest. Why, is discussed in the forum. Hopefully, overall this will not make a significant difference to the data, but the occasional quirk can be evident.
Attachment 276Attachment 277Attachment 278

Note:- I do not have a problem if portions of this data are reproduced on other websites, although no documents or images may be uploaded to another site.

However, it is a condition that, if the data is reproduced, a web link back to this page is included in any such post.

If a site forbids linking to this forum (for instance ****************.org) then no content may be reproduced.

[gs1968]

Spec
I agree with you on the Schedule A issue. There are a lot of folks from the Phillippines waiting on consular processing. The last visa recapture was for 50000 visas as part of the REAL ID ACT of 2005. A vast majority of these went to Schedule A workers
" Usage of 50,000 unused employment-based visas from 2003-This was a compromise between proponents who had earlier tried to include all employment visas which went unused between 2001 and 2004, and immigration restrictionists. They were used, mostly in fiscal year 2006, for Schedule A workers newly arrived mainly from the Philippines and India, rather than for adjustments of status cases like the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act."

Link-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/REAL_ID_Act

Also this Act is a classic example of what started as a platform for improving security for issuing Driver's licenses and ended up having a host of immigration reforms.Of course the most important of these was the abolition of annual limits for asylum seekers who used to wait for decades prior to that ( Wouldn't it be wonderful if annual limits for EB immigrants was also done away with?!)
I bring this up so as not to lose hope on HR 3012 as it could be added to some completely unrelated legislation before the year is out

BTW welcome to wavelet.His post is similar to a deranged rant of mine some weeks ago!

[mesan123]

Vizcard,

It is true...i know my collegaue whose priority date was Aug 2008 got greened in June 2012. Few lucky ones are getting greened even when the status is "U"

First guess is it's a mistake in the system. No one can get greened if it's U. I'd find it hard to believe even if this person was ROW.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,

It is true...i know my collegaue whose priority date was Aug 2008 got greened in June 2012. Few lucky ones are getting greened even when the status is "U"

I can somewhat understand a 2008 PD (Jan filer). He must have had a RD very early in Jan and got a RFE... am I right? I really can't see a March filer getting greened ahead of other Jan and Feb filers unless its some screw up.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I haven't been following the thread for a while so forgive me if its a repetitive question.

Is there a consensus / estimate on what might be the spillover number be for FY2013?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I haven't been following the thread for a while so forgive me if its a repetitive question.

Is there a consensus / estimate on what might be the spillover number be for FY2013?

I forgot to add...spillover estimate for EB2-I.

[mesan123]

No, he didnt get any RFE and his status changed from Acceptance to approval directly, he and his spouse both got there green cards same way.

So my guess is the system is screwed up...and lucky ones are getting greened

I can somewhat understand a 2008 PD (Jan filer). He must have had a RD very early in Jan and got a RFE... am I right? I really can't see a March filer getting greened ahead of other Jan and Feb filers unless its some screw up.

[qesehmk]

Mesan -

Don't mean to refute what you say below. Just would like to state my perspective:

80% of times these things are hoaxes - misunderstandings - typos. But 20% of times these are the super-lucky guys.

However in either case - 99.99% of the rest folks don't need to pay attention to such things since they have absolutely no bearing whatsoever when you are going to get greened. So if I was waiting on my GC - I would ignore this piece of information because it doesn't do any good to my situation. Right?

No, he didnt get any RFE and his status changed from Acceptance to approval directly, he and his spouse both got there green cards same way.

So my guess is the system is screwed up...and lucky ones are getting greened

[iamdeb]

Dear Friends,

I have approved I140 with PD May 2011.I am on my 6th yr H1.Recently I got my H1B extension for 3 more years based on my approved I140.
I would like to know my options(provided my I140 is not revoked)

If my switch my employer and the new employer doesn't start GC processing soon, what will happen to my H1b Status? Will I be able to stay on my newly acquired 3 yr extended H1?So will my H1B valid till 2015 without my GC re-starting with the new company?

Also,I would like to know my options in case my I140 is revoked by my employer.Does my 3 yr H1b Extension become invalid and I become out of status?

Sorry to barge into this thread.However since I don't have the luxury of EAD or AC-21 this forum is my best hope for insightful,accurate advice.

Thanks!

Deb

[Spectator]

Hey Spec - why wouldn't the ROW EB2 (or even EB3) numbers here won't match with the level of approvals we are seeing for their respective categories.

e.g. for EB2 ROW these numbers would imply a demand of hardly 14-20K per year last 3-4 years. However in reality their approval levels are always around 30K.

Q,

It is something I have noticed as well and commented on a few times. I agree it looks very odd and I don't have a definitive answer. I assure you that the PERM figures are correct.

Here's some ideas to mull over. I am not saying they account for everything, but some may have an effect.

a) There seems to be quite a large working backlog for EB2-WW cases, so the time for changes to become apparent is quite large. If this is true, then eventually we will see the EB2-WW numbers fall, but I don't know when.

It is for this reason that, although up to 8k EB2-WW cases may flow through to FY2013, I am not saying that they will necessarily use any of the available spillover to EB2 i.e. a reduction in underlying cases will at least balance the extra numbers from FY2012. I have no idea if this is correct. Clearly, any recent PERM approvals for EB3 are not going to have a very big effect when approvals still have a PD of 2006.

b) I did notice that EB2-Philippines approvals increased by 50% in FY2011. Although the numbers aren't large, it suggests that more Schedule A cases are being approved in EB2. These are outside the PERM base.

NIW is also outside PERM, but I don't believe this is a large factor.

c) I have to have suspicions that large sections of WW no longer use EB3 and the % of EB2 cases has risen. It is impossible to test, since EB3 Cut Off Dates are still back in 2006 and the apparent change did not begin until post 2008 at least. If correct, as I have mentioned before, this could be good news for EB3 eventually, although it is still several years away.

EB3-Mexico and EB3-ROW, at least, should exhaust the current backlog sometime during FY2013. Depending on how far CO pushes the dates beyond July 2007, we may get a glimpse of things to come. Unfortunately, the higher number of CP cases in EB3 and the aftermath of this year's debacle may conspire to limit the forward movement.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts.

[Spectator]

I have updated my analysis of the PWD for FY2012.

Very similar to Q1-2 breakdown.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Dear Friends,

I have approved I140 with PD May 2011.I am on my 6th yr H1.Recently I got my H1B extension for 3 more years based on my approved I140.
I would like to know my options(provided my I140 is not revoked)

If my switch my employer and the new employer doesn't start GC processing soon, what will happen to my H1b Status? Will I be able to stay on my newly acquired 3 yr extended H1?So will my H1B valid till 2015 without my GC re-starting with the new company?

Does not affect H1B status. Your 3 years is still valid. Of course, your new employer needs to transfer your H1B onto their rolls (not sure of the exact lingo, I know a I179 is involved), but you do not need to get it re-stamped at a consulate.

Also,I would like to know my options in case my I140 is revoked by my employer.Does my 3 yr H1b Extension become invalid and I become out of status?

Not affected. If your I140 is revoked the only effect is that you can't port your old PD to your new I140 application with the second employer. To be clear, regardless of whether your old employer revokes your I140, you would still apply for PERM and I140 with your new employer. The only difference is, if they revoke the old I140, you can't port the date and your new PERM date will become your new PD instead of your existing PD.

[justvisiting]

It's helpful to review the ways you can file an I-140 without filing a PERM

-N.I.W. - erratic, unclear guidelines.
-Schedule A Group I - usually EB-3, but if applicants have been waiting abroad for a long time, they may have figured out a way to upgrade to EB-2 (by obtaining a masters in nursing/PT and adjusting the job requirements)
-Schedule A Group II - this is rarely used becuase it is so similar to EB-1A, but in the end the "thershold" is lower you only need to satisfy 2 criteria vs. the 3 criteria needed for EB-1A.
-Physician N.I.W. - 5 years in an underserved area, but for MDs doing already 3 years in a J-1 waiver, doing two more may be an attractive way of avoiding PERM altogether.

Q,

It is something I have noticed as well and commented on a few times. I agree it looks very odd and I don't have a definitive answer. I assure you that the PERM figures are correct.

Here's some ideas to mull over. I am not saying they account for everything, but some may have an effect.

a) There seems to be quite a large working backlog for EB2-WW cases, so the time for changes to become apparent is quite large. If this is true, then eventually we will see the EB2-WW numbers fall, but I don't know when.

It is for this reason that, although up to 8k EB2-WW cases may flow through to FY2013, I am not saying that they will necessarily use any of the available spillover to EB2 i.e. a reduction in underlying cases will at least balance the extra numbers from FY2012. I have no idea if this is correct. Clearly, any recent PERM approvals for EB3 are not going to have a very big effect when approvals still have a PD of 2006.

b) I did notice that EB2-Philippines approvals increased by 50% in FY2011. Although the numbers aren't large, it suggests that more Schedule A cases are being approved in EB2. These are outside the PERM base.

NIW is also outside PERM, but I don't believe this is a large factor.

c) I have to have suspicions that large sections of WW no longer use EB3 and the % of EB2 cases has risen. It is impossible to test, since EB3 Cut Off Dates are still back in 2006 and the apparent change did not begin until post 2008 at least. If correct, as I have mentioned before, this could be good news for EB3 eventually, although it is still several years away.

EB3-Mexico and EB3-ROW, at least, should exhaust the current backlog sometime during FY2013. Depending on how far CO pushes the dates beyond July 2007, we may get a glimpse of things to come. Unfortunately, the higher number of CP cases in EB3 and the aftermath of this year's debacle may conspire to limit the forward movement.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts.

[mesan123]

Q, i didnt post this message for People waiting for GC's that they also can get greened ..just was answering vizard post that these kind of weird things also happen with USCIS nothing else

Mesan -

Don't mean to refute what you say below. Just would like to state my perspective:

80% of times these things are hoaxes - misunderstandings - typos. But 20% of times these are the super-lucky guys.

However in either case - 99.99% of the rest folks don't need to pay attention to such things since they have absolutely no bearing whatsoever when you are going to get greened. So if I was waiting on my GC - I would ignore this piece of information because it doesn't do any good to my situation. Right?