EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vizcard]

Viz, any guess for 30-Apr-2008 EB2I PD? Will it be before Dec 2012 or in summer 2013?

- makmohan

I'll defer to Spec and others who run the numbers but my guess is best case scenario is Summer 2013. FY14 is more realistic.

[geevikram]

Viz, any guess for 30-Apr-2008 EB2I PD? Will it be before Dec 2012 or in summer 2013?

- makmohan

Sit tight. There are quite some unknowns such as the spillover that we are going to receive from EB4 and EB5. Where we start off next year (Oct 2013) also matters a lot.

Good luck!!

[Spectator]

One interesting thing I noticed was that DOS have not yet published the official EB and FB limits for FY2012.

It does seem to be getting later and later, so last year it was published in the August 2011 VB. This what it said:

E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.

Until this is published, Section A of the VB says:

The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.

After it is published, it says:

The fiscal year 2011 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 140,000.

The September VB is the last chance to officially publish this information.

FB received 221,042 visas last year, so there is an outside possibility of an extra 4,958 visas for EB.

[qesehmk]

Spec thanks. I had pretty much forgotten about this nuance.

Can you please throw some light on this verbeage in plain english.

These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

[Spectator]

Spec thanks. I had pretty much forgotten about this nuance.

Can you please throw some light on this verbeage in plain english.

Q,

Sure.

Both only relate to the (rather complicated) calculation of FB numbers. I won't bore everyone by quoting them, but you can find them at INA 201(c) if anyone cares to look.

Essentially, you can ignore them, since the number relating to parole is very small and the number of Immediate Relatives of US Citizens is very large.

A simple version would be 480k minus IR of USC plus any spare EB visas. That calculation almost always results in a figure lower than the minimum number for FB of 226,000.

The number of IR approvals in FY2011 (according to DHS figures) was 453,158 and in FY2010 it was 476,414 , so you can see that the default figure of 226k always comes into play.

[NeelVohra]

Trackitt EB2-I user is reporting that he/she received the NVC Notice. EB2-I PD June 2011

Link: EB2-I PD June 2011

[chengisk]

Trackitt EB2-I user is reporting that he/she received the NVC Notice. EB2-I PD June 2011

Link: EB2-I PD June 2011

That is interesting in that DoS is gaining confidence to do this. That being said, here are some of the past NVC receipts

Reported Receipt date-----------PD
17Jan2012--------------------------01Mar2011
01Feb2012--------------------------18Feb2011
07Feb2012--------------------------30Jun2011
17Feb2012--------------------------24Jan2011
22feb2012--------------------------01may2011
23feb2012--------------------------14jun2011
28feb2012--------------------------02feb2011
28feb2012--------------------------01mar2011
08mar2012--------------------------22jun2011
And Now,
12Jun2012--------------------------23jun2011

I am quite sure, by Jan 2013 the cutoff date cannot be in 2011. So I am befuddled.

[vizcard]

That is interesting in that DoS is gaining confidence to do this. That being said, here are some of the past NVC receipts

Reported Receipt date-----------PD
17Jan2012--------------------------01Mar2011
01Feb2012--------------------------18Feb2011
07Feb2012--------------------------30Jun2011
17Feb2012--------------------------24Jan2011
22feb2012--------------------------01may2011
23feb2012--------------------------14jun2011
28feb2012--------------------------02feb2011
28feb2012--------------------------01mar2011
08mar2012--------------------------22jun2011
And Now,
10aug2012--------------------------23jun2011

I am quite sure, by Jan 2013 the cutoff date cannot be in 2011. So I am befuddled.

All except the last one were issued when the flood gates had been opened under a different set of assumptions. I wouldn't consider those. But the last one is definitely intriguing. Keep in mind though that, once paid, the fee is valid forever.

[billu77]

just a word about Sept. visa bulletin. Normally VBs are posted by 10th of the month and most often a day after the DD. Is there anything more to the Sept. bulletin or just a procedural delay?

[qesehmk]

Billu - it should be out by Wed for sure. Perhaps even Mon or Tue.

just a word about Sept. visa bulletin. Normally VBs are posted by 10th of the month and most often a day after the DD. Is there anything more to the Sept. bulletin or just a procedural delay?

[chengisk]

The last user got receipt notice in Jun and not Aug. Anyway I would not read too much into this.

Corrected the date. You are right, I do not think there is much to this. But what gets me is that someone with 2011 PD is looking at 2016 to be current. Think DoS has a good investment banker?

[obamamerabaap]

I have a PD of October 2008 - when can I expect Green Card ?

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Not sure why you think I have entered "date prediction mode".

As you say, I prefer to lay the information out there for everybody and let people draw their own conclusion.

That said, I don't feel I can never post what I think that information says to myself personally. I've stuck to my guns regarding EB1, EB5 numbers and overuse of EB2 even though it hasn't been a popular or universal view at times.

As FY2012 draws to a close, especially with almost no activity in EB2, I think it is natural that thoughts should turn to what is gong to happen in FY2013 and future years.

If nobody lays out their thoughts, how can we have a discussion?

Well at least that's the feeling I got by reading some of your posts in previous pages. But that's not the point. Let me give you example from this forum itself. Last year Teddy was first to predict EB2 dates to be around Jan 2008 by end of FY2012. And as we all know now he was spot on if things moved logically. ( he was spot on in terms of porting numbers too). But things did not move logically and value of his prediction( numbers wise) was lost in the process. So the point is predicting numbers has the value and not the date IMO.

Even GODS can not take away your right to express thoughts I am mere mortal here , just making point that number predictions(and debate) is much more 'valuable' than date prediction as it is kind of waste of time ,IMO, specially when we know behavior of agencies involved and lot of unknown unknowns.

And one more time thank you very much for all number calculations and other very informative posts.

[suninphx]

Sunphix,

I can understand your frustration.
My prediction is not solely based on Spec's estimate nor being pessimistic or anything. 2012 was unusual because of lack of inventory. Now there good number of preajudicated cases in front of CO, we have seen how CO moved dates in past couple of years when there is Inventory. And more over we have seen increase in EB5/EB1 usage this year. Below is spill over i am expecting in 2013, we can debate over this whether there will be an increase or decrease in Spill over, right now the way things are shaping up I do not see a reason to believe that there will be substantial increase in Spill Over.

2013 SO
EB5---0-1k(According CO's estimate in July)
EB1--3-4k(Depends on If EB1 is going to get Cutoff Date in Sept VB or not)
EB2ROW--?(this is big question mark if they are going to consume any SO from EB5/EB1 again this depends on backlog that is accumulated this year we will know exact number in Oct demand data)


P.S: As i mentioned in my earlier posts having PD of May2008,I am also not happy with this but this is what numbers are pointing to at present.

Nope. Not frustrated at all. I have reached a stage ( or age may be ) where you don't get frustrated with things not in your control. My point is predicting dates under assumption that agencies will act logically may not add much value,IMO. To give example, in your above posts you are assuming some numbers based on what CO said. Well, we all know what was said in Jan, Feb,Mar VBs this year and how that dramatically changed in matter of one VB.

[ihp62as]

Hi,
Since the ROW visa cutoff date is now Jan 2009, how does that affect people who are porting from eb3 to eb2? My eb3 PD was Jun2008, but I ported to EB2 and applied 485 just a few days before the ROW dates retrogressed to Jan2009. When my application gets processed, will I be getting visas from the EB2 ROW pool or from spillover pool? I read somewhere that uscis assigns visa to ported applicants from the spillover visas it gets from other categories. I am hoping I interpreted it wrong, but if not, does it mean I have to wait until after October 2012 for any chance at a visa?

[qesehmk]

Since your ported PD is not retrogressed, you should expect GC in anytime during processing time which should be 3-6 months for EB2ROW. Good luck!

Hi,
Since the ROW visa cutoff date is now Jan 2009, how does that affect people who are porting from eb3 to eb2? My eb3 PD was Jun2008, but I ported to EB2 and applied 485 just a few days before the ROW dates retrogressed to Jan2009. When my application gets processed, will I be getting visas from the EB2 ROW pool or from spillover pool? I read somewhere that uscis assigns visa to ported applicants from the spillover visas it gets from other categories. I am hoping I interpreted it wrong, but if not, does it mean I have to wait until after October 2012 for any chance at a visa?

[qesehmk]

OMB - it depends on your country of chargeability and category. Assuming your EB2I - i would bet Oct 2007 should get it by Dec 2012 max.

For Oct 2008 - I would say Sep 2013 with 80-90% of chance.

I have a PD of October 2008 - when can I expect Green Card ?

[ihp62as]

I hope so! I just wanted a little more clarity if you don't mind, how does the visa bulletin take into account porting applicants? e.g., say in the visa bulletin posted in April for May 2012, they have 1000 visas available for eb2-row PD upto April2012. If they get 200 applicants porting from EB3 to EB2, these 200 applicants will get the visas from the 1000 May bucket, correct? So for next month, they will have only 800 visas for original eb2-ROW, correct?

[harapatta2012]

Q-Based on the pessimistic mood around EB2I date move in FY2013, what makes you still so positive about OCt 2008 becoming current in Dec 2012?
Isnt it more like oct 2008 getting current in FY2014 end.

OMB - it depends on your country of chargeability and category. Assuming your EB2I - i would bet you should get yours by Dec 2012 max.

[vizcard]

Hi,
Since the ROW visa cutoff date is now Jan 2009, how does that affect people who are porting from eb3 to eb2? My eb3 PD was Jun2008, but I ported to EB2 and applied 485 just a few days before the ROW dates retrogressed to Jan2009. When my application gets processed, will I be getting visas from the EB2 ROW pool or from spillover pool? I read somewhere that uscis assigns visa to ported applicants from the spillover visas it gets from other categories. I am hoping I interpreted it wrong, but if not, does it mean I have to wait until after October 2012 for any chance at a visa?

Since your ported PD is not retrogressed, you should expect GC in anytime during processing time which should be 3-6 months for EB2ROW. Good luck!

Q - you are assuming ihp62as is ROW. If he/she is IC, then what you say won't apply.
IHP - are you IC or ROW ?

[vizcard]

OMB - it depends on your country of chargeability and category. Assuming your EB2I - i would bet you should get yours by Dec 2012 max.

Q-Based on the pessimistic mood around EB2I date move in FY2013, what makes you still so positive about OCt 2008 becoming current in Dec 2012?
Isnt it more like oct 2008 getting current in FY2014 end.

Q - did you mean Dec 2013 ? That's the earliest Oct 2008 can be current again.

[ihp62as]

Yes, vizcard, I am ROW.

[qesehmk]

I hope so! I just wanted a little more clarity if you don't mind, how does the visa bulletin take into account porting applicants? e.g., say in the visa bulletin posted in April for May 2012, they have 1000 visas available for eb2-row PD upto April2012. If they get 200 applicants porting from EB3 to EB2, these 200 applicants will get the visas from the 1000 May bucket, correct? So for next month, they will have only 800 visas for original eb2-ROW, correct?

Visa bulletin doesn't care for porting. All they see is visa demand coming in from USCIS. When USCIS sees all 485 applications for ROW - they are going to process the ones with oldest PD first. In this case since your date is ported - they will consider the ported date as a normal EB2ROW PD for your application and it will be picked up processed and when approved a visa number will be requested from DOS. Then DOS will simply assign it since the PD is available. Quota doesn't matter here since they have already factored in the probable demand and accordingly retrogressed the EB2ROW dates.

p.s. - So when EB2ROW is made current as you can imagine - the general monthly demand is less than or equal to monthly quota for EB2ROW which should be about 9% of 28K-34K depending on whether DOS actually carves out MP quota separately for EB2MP. I am not sure. For EB2M actually it doesn't make sense. For EB2P it may.

Q-Based on the pessimistic mood around EB2I date move in FY2013, what makes you still so positive about OCt 2008 becoming current in Dec 2012?
Isnt it more like oct 2008 getting current in FY2014 end.

Q - did you mean Dec 2013 ? That's the earliest Oct 2008 can be current again.

Harapatta and Vizcard - I misread the date as Oct 2007 and hence I replied Dec 2012. However for Oct 2008 - s/he should get it by Sep 2013. I think Oct 2008 could be current for EB2IC by May 2013. The reason being that although ROW is backlogged ... it was only for 3-4 months. It has to become current in Oct 2012 bulletin. It will become current. So effectively the ROW impact is probably 8K. That 8K is probably offset by the EB2IC 8K from 2008 that were approved in 2012 year. So we are talking about 1 year of EB2IC demand between Oct 2008-Oct 2007. Will that be cleared in 2013? I think so.

That is approximately equal to total SOFAD of anywhere between 24K-30K (less 8K approved in 2012). I still think that it is quite possible. But we will know better with the next 485 inventory of course.

[kd2008]

September 2012 Visa bulletin http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5759.html

EB2IC -- U
EB2ROWMP --01JAN09

D. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On August 8th, CIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.

[shreyasai2004]

VB Sep 2012 Out and Dates not moved. Its Copy of Aug 2012 Bullitein