EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec!

It may have been answered before but sorry for asking again. Why did the number increase when EB2I has been Unavailable since many months?No new applications, no porting. Is USCIS showing pre adjudicated numbers?

CleanSock,

The DOS Demand Data only shows cases where a visa number has been requested from either USCIS or a Consulate.

The continuing increase just reflects USCIS working their way through the backlog and processing them to preadudication. I expect it to continue in the short term.

[trackright]

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404

EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)

Does the Inventory include approved cases. Like for eaxmple EB2I-2008 Inv=15136. Does it mean all 15136 are pending or it includes approved cases too.

[justvisiting]

So I have a question regardign the 27% per quarter limit. (Spec might be the best one to answer) If DOS applies the limit, then they would likely have to keep a cutoff date for EB2-WW, right?
The limit for this category in a quarter would be 40,040*86%*27%= 9,297. If the estimate of a backlog of 8K is correct, and DOS releases all those visa numbers in October, then by December they won't have any numbers left for Q1.

[GhostWriter]

If the inventory report is accurate then it will include only pending cases. Once the case is approved (visa number is obtained) the case will not be in inventory.

Does the Inventory include approved cases. Like for eaxmple EB2I-2008 Inv=15136. Does it mean all 15136 are pending or it includes approved cases too.

[Spectator]

So I have a question regardign the 27% per quarter limit. (Spec might be the best one to answer) If DOS applies the limit, then they would likely have to keep a cutoff date for EB2-WW, right?
The limit for this category in a quarter would be 40,040*86%*27%= 9,297. If the estimate of a backlog of 8K is correct, and DOS releases all those visa numbers in October, then by December they won't have any numbers left for Q1.

In theory, as you point out, it could present a problem.

In practice, I think it is politically too important not to bring EB2-WW back to Current for it to actually happen. One way or other the situation will be massaged to obtain the desired result IMO.

The first full Demand Data month movement for EB2-WW was only 2k, so the backlog may be lower than 8k.

The 27% limit is an overall limit for EB, so extra visas can be pulled in from other places, at least temporarily. The vast majority of EB5 approvals are from China. They will hit the quarterly 7% limit and spare visas can be reallocated. CO can always use the low EB1 demand stunt to find some more. The fly in that ointment is that CO probably needs to release the full 2.8k allocation to EB2-I in October to have a Cut Off date in August 2007.

I'm not convinced all the backlogged cases will be approved in the first month anyway for purely logistical reasons.

Finally, CO has shown scant regard for the 27% limit in the past - why should FY2013 be any different?

[Spectator]

For FY2012 following is my estimation for visa consumption across EB1/4/5/2. This is split across months as approvals varied across months. This is based on this article(http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/ar...012-03-27.html) which i found in this forum back in March. If EB1 uses anything < 35k and if it gets COD in Sept then those numbers are consumed by EB2 most probably ROW, we will find out about this in next VB, i will be more than happy if EB1 stays 'C' for Sept VB.

EB4/EB5 numbers are based on CO comments in July regarding EB5 numbers and some comments from above article regarding EB4.

Category---Oct2011 to Dec2011--Jan2012 to Mar2012--Apr2012 to Sept2012---Total
EB2IC-------10k-------------------------16k-------------------------0k-----------------26k(you may not agree with this number but i think EB2IC consumed >25k in Fy2012)
EB2ROW----6k---------------------------7k--------------------------9k-----------------22k(This is based on retrogression in Q4 and EB2 consumption of around 38-40k in Q1+Q2)
EB1----------6k--------------------------10k------------------------20k-----------------36k(In above article CO mentioned no Spill down from EB1, which is more or less EB1 will consume >=35k)
EB5/EB4-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------16k(EB5--6k+EB4--10k)

openaccount,

I deliberately left a day before replying to see if other people would respond.

I also generally agree with your assessment.

My variation would be that I think EB2 has used 50-52k, about evenly split between EB2-IC and EB2-WW.

To balance that, my figure for EB1 would be slightly lower than yours.

[gc2008]

September demand data is out:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[justvisiting]

In theory, as you point out, it could present a problem.

The 27% limit is an overall limit for EB, so extra visas can be pulled in from other places, at least temporarily. The vast majority of EB5 approvals are from China. They will hit the quarterly 7% limit and spare visas can be reallocated. CO can always use the low EB1 demand stunt to find some more. The fly in that ointment is that CO probably needs to release the full 2.8k allocation to EB2-I in October to have a Cut Off date in August 2007.

I went back and read the INA, and you are absolutely right. The language is so vague DOS has all sorts of flexibility.

Finally, CO has shown scant regard for the 27% limit in the past - why should FY2013 be any different?

Well, since DOS doesn't release quarterly data, they can get away with most anything, I suppose.

[bieber]

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404

EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)

Thanks GhostWriter, I was going to search that post

[bieber]

Just as an extention to GhostWriter post

Cases added to Demand data in the last month and (Total pending cases = Inventory - current demand)

EB2I
2007 PD- 850 (4)
2008 PD- 1,650 (2,336)
2009 PD- 2,450 (4,854)

EB2C
2007 PD- 125 (246)
2008 PD- 250 (461)
2009 PD- 500 (938)

[openaccount]

openaccount,

I deliberately left a day before replying to see if other people would respond.

I also generally agree with your assessment.

My variation would be that I think EB2 has used 50-52k, about evenly split between EB2-IC and EB2-WW.

To balance that, my figure for EB1 would be slightly lower than yours.

Spec,

How many EB2 approvals do you think happened in Q1+Q2.

My estimation of EB2 48k is based on around 38-40k approvals in Q1+Q2 and this (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...e_data_qtr.pdf ), if you see this for Q1+Q2 there were around 75k EB approvals(this does not include CP), In this 75k at least 58-60k could be for EB2/EB1/EB4/EB5. So in Q3+Q4 there were around 40k left to distribute across EB2ROW/EB1/EB4/EB5, As EB2ROW stayed 'C' for Q3, i believe there were around 9k approvals(around 3k per month) EB4/EB5 approvals around 8k which brings EB2ROW/EB4/EB5 approvals around 17k in Q3+Q4. So EB1 approvals in Q3+Q4 might be around 40-17=23K., this could be on higher end but i think EB1 approvals in Q3+Q4 are no less than 20k for this reason i was expecting EB1 approvals >35k.

I believe CO has used around 60k(EB1/2/4/5) in Q1+Q2 itself because of following reasons
--Approvals in Jan/Feb/March 2012
--the way retrogression happened latter.
--CO announcement in March no EB1 spill down

[veni001]

thank you.

EB2 ROW---2,775X3=8325(retrogressed for 3 months taking 2775 as base per month for 3 months it would be 8325)

So EB2ROW will be using at least +8k in FY2013.

other approach taking weekly basis below is calculation for Jul1-Sept31(2012)---13 weeks

2775----5 weeks(Jul1-Aug5)
555------1 week
7215----13 weeks(Jul1-Sept31)

So 7215 is minimum number of approvals that could have happened in Q4 without retrogression for EB2ROW. As USCIS is approving some 485 cases within 2-3 months, we can add an extra 1k to the number, so totally EB2ROW needs +8k approvals as starting point in FY2013

In addition, those EB2-ROW applications that could have been filed in Q4 of 2012 will hit Q1 of 2013 (assuming dates will become current for EB2-ROW)

[Spectator]

Spec,

How many EB2 approvals do you think happened in Q1+Q2.

Around 40k.

[isantem]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

September Demand data is out!

[openaccount]

In addition, those EB2-ROW application that could have been filed in Q4 of 2013 will hit Q1 of 2014 (assuming dates will become current for EB2-ROW)

veni, i guess you were referring to Q4-2012 & Q1-2013

[veni001]

veni, i guess you were referring to Q4-2012 & Q1-2013

That's right, i corrected it in my post.

[qesehmk]

The numbers in Sep demand data are surprising.
It shows only 12K demand for 2008 for EB2 (mostly EB2IC really). I would have thought that would now represent mostly all of 2008 numbers. So either A) USCIS hasnt yet fully processed 2008 OR B) 2008 demand is truly low. I am not sure what exactly is true. Looking at the 2008 PERM data, probably A) is true.

[Spectator]

The numbers in Sep demand data are surprising.
It shows only 12K demand for 2008 for EB2 (mostly EB2IC really). I would have thought that would now represent mostly all of 2008 numbers. So either A) USCIS hasnt yet fully processed 2008 OR B) 2008 demand is truly low. I am not sure what exactly is true. Looking at the 2008 PERM data, probably A) is true.

Q,

I am not sure how you are arriving at that figure of 12k for 2008.

I see 15,675 cases (21,400 - 5,725) made up of China - 2,850 India - 12,800 & Worldwide - 25

I do agree that USCIS probably still hasn't finished processing all the cases yet.

GhostWriter's earlier post shows that compared to the Inventory figures for May 2012, about 85% of 2008 cases have now appeared in the Demand Data and correspondingly less for 2009 and 2010.

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404

EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)

[qesehmk]

I missed China Spec. Thanks for pointing out. But that doesn't make a huge dent really.

Including China it shows 16K right? Given that 1/3rd of 2008 are already approved, that makes 2008 true demand at 24K. Then you apply the 85% factor and you get 28K which is quite less compared to average 2.5-3K per month demand for EB2IC.

Makes sense?

Q,

I am not sure how you are arriving at that figure of 12k for 2008.

I see 15,675 cases (21,400 - 5,725) made up of China - 2,850 India - 12,800 & Worldwide - 25

I do agree that USCIS probably still hasn't finished processing all the cases yet.

GhostWriter's earlier post shows that compared to the Inventory figures for May 2012, about 85% of 2008 cases have now appeared in the Demand Data and correspondingly less for 2009 and 2010.

[GhostWriter]

The total PERMs for EB-IC for 2008 were about 28K, with an overall transformation factor of 1 that implies 28K I-485s. The EB2-IC inventory has about 18K. If your assumption about one third approvals is correct then total I485s filed for EB2-IC for 2008 were 27K, very close to the 28K number.

I missed China Spec. Thanks for pointing out. But that doesn't make a huge dent really.

Including China it shows 16K right? Given that 1/3rd of 2008 are already approved, that makes 2008 true demand at 24K. Then you apply the 85% factor and you get 28K which is quite less compared to average 2.5-3K per month demand for EB2IC.

Makes sense?

[qesehmk]

28k perms => 17k assuming 60% eb2
@2.1 family factor that is 35.7k eb2ic. So 28k is really lower bound whereas 36k would be realistic #
And that's why I think (don't really claim) uscis may have processed less than 85%

The total PERMs for EB2-IC for 2008 were about 28K, with an overall transformation factor of 1 that implies 28K I-485s. The EB2-IC inventory has about 18K. If your assumption about one third approvals is correct then total I485s filed for EB2-IC for 2008 were 27K, very close to the 28K number.

[billu77]

any predictions for FY 2013 by the experts based on the latest DD?

[vizcard]

any predictions for FY 2013 by the experts based on the latest DD?

You will have your GC.. assuming your application is all good.

[GhostWriter]

EB-IC PERMs - 28K (i had mentioned this as EB2-IC PERM by mistake in the earlier post, will correct that)

Using Spec's assumptions from here

% of EB2 cases - 65%
I-140 approval rate - 80%
Dependent ratio - 2.05
Transformation ratio - .65 * .8 * 2.05 ~ 1.066
EB2-IC I485s expected - 28K * 1.066 ~ 30K

We can also add 1K of porting for 2008 PDs (assuming total porting of 4K, roughly 1K can be attributed to 2008 PD). I don't know if they are counted in EB2 inventory or not. But if they are then we should have seen I-485 filings of 30K + 1K = 31K. Assuming 9K 2008 approvals for EB2-IC, we should expect 22K in inventory vs. a current figure of 18K. 4K discrepancy can be due to many reasons
1. Approvals were more than 9k
2. New PWMBs (so they will file later)
3. DD of up to 13% (~ 4k/30k)
4. People have filed but inventory does not reflect some of the cases (this is i assume what you are implying). This is possible but seems less likely, inventory was released on May 3 and cut-off dates for 2008 were current from Jan-Apr 2012. There could be some cases received at the end of April that might not have been counted but would more likely be 2010 or 2009 PDs. But with USCIS nothing can be ruled out !!

In any case base (realistic) case expectation of 36K for 2008 EB2-IC seems too high, i don't think that was the base case assumption most of the people were making. As far as i remember it used to be 28K (using a ratio of 1) and some even assumed less than that accounting for DD of 10% or more.

28k perms => 17k assuming 60% eb2
@2.1 family factor that is 35.7k eb2ic. So 28k is really lower bound whereas 36k would be realistic #
And that's why I think (don't really claim) uscis may have processed less than 85%

[makmohan]

You will have your GC.. assuming your application is all good.

Viz, any guess for 30-Apr-2008 EB2I PD? Will it be before Dec 2012 or in summer 2013?

- makmohan