EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[gc0907]

1: H1 extension is almost same as filing new H1 (Check this out...)
2: No one here can predict chances of approval or denial. It would be mere a guess.
3: If you can afford go with a lawyer for peace of mind and for any trouble in case you get an RFE.

I work for a small company. They have limited knowledge about immigration. I basically have do everything myself, preparing documents, finding a lawyer, paying all the fees, etc...But at least my company is supportive (e.g., signing the papers I prepared...)

[PD2011]

Thanks, gc0907. I also did google search, and now I have some ideas.

1: H1 extension is almost same as filing new H1 (Check this out...)
2: No one here can predict chances of approval or denial. It would be mere a guess.
3: If you can afford go with a lawyer for peace of mind and for any trouble in case you get an RFE.

[gc4a_k]

That is also illegal.

I dont think it is. In my case i work in EC (employee client) model. if client is giving X$/hour, the employer gives me X - Y$/per. The Y amount includes administration expense, ssn, medicare + visa fees. Very rarely you will come to know how much the client is paying your employer. so techinically your employer does include visa fees when he is paying you.

[Spectator]

Spec -
your predictions are not pessimistic they are realistic. It is is better to live in reality rather than in assumption.

Had dates progressed in controlled manner EB2IC could have got no more than 16-18K SOFAD instead of 24k SOFAD this could have taken EB2IC FY2012 PD to Oct/Nov 2007 which matches with your earlier prediction for FY2012.

Please continue what you are doing which will give us a better picture.

openaccount,

Thank you for the support - it makes me feel a bit better.

In truth, I don't think the absolutely nuclear scenario will happen.

In what is a rather cruel twist, EB2-I will bear the full weight of paying back the extra visas allocated to EB2-IC this year.

In FY2013, EB2-C will get the minimum 2.8k allocation anyway and wouldn't receive any spillover in FY2013 unless EB2-IC SOFAD exceeds around 17-18k. That is very, very unlikely, so EB2-C will not have any reductions due to the extra approvals they received in FY2012. Unfortunately, that is just how the numbers are.

[kd2008]

I concur with Spec's analysis. Just as FY 2012 was a bumper year for EB2IC - albeit artificially, FY2013 will be one of the most darkest and non-progressing kind. Sorry, didn't want to sugar coat it.

I missed my filing by a few months of movement. I think it is going take me 4 more years to file (PD +6 yrs) instead of the usual PD+5 yrs.

[pdfeb09]

Being the lone pessimistic voice doesn't feel good. I don't derive any pleasure from it at all and frankly I am loathe to post predictions because of that.

I'd really like to think I have missed something obvious, but I just can't see it. I appreciate all opinions.

Spec,

You have been realistic all along. We (at least I) would not like to have it any other way. You are doing an amazing job.

Hope you continue to do so .. ( I am being shamelessly and utterly selfish here.. ).

[isantem]

I dont think it is. In my case i work in EC (employee client) model. if client is giving X$/hour, the employer gives me X - Y$/per. The Y amount includes administration expense, ssn, medicare + visa fees. Very rarely you will come to know how much the client is paying your employer. so techinically your employer does include visa fees when he is paying you.

What is so hard to understand? Employer (petitioner) needs to pay the fee by law. I don't know what your client payment to your employer have to do with this discussion.

[vizcard]

I don't disagree with Spec's view. In fact I do think the demand numbers are spot on. I just feel there will be something that ends up giving us more than expected in terms of supply aka SOFAD. I can't remember a time (although I haven't really tracked it) when SOFAD was less than 12-15K. Ofcourse what we have right now is unprecedented so who knows.

i'm a realist tending to pessimist by nature (my wife hates it :P ). But even then i somehow feel that there is a curve ball (or googly for cricket fans) waiting to happen.

PS: I don't mean to give ppl false hopes. Make no mistake, the situation sucks but at least a whole bunch of ppl got EAD which is a blessing.

[Spectator]

I don't disagree with Spec's view. In fact I do think the demand numbers are spot on. I just feel there will be something that ends up giving us more than expected in terms of supply aka SOFAD. I can't remember a time (although I haven't really tracked it) when SOFAD was less than 12-15K. Ofcourse what we have right now is unprecedented so who knows.

i'm a realist tending to pessimist by nature (my wife hates it :P ). But even then i somehow feel that there is a curve ball (or googly for cricket fans) waiting to happen.

PS: I don't mean to give ppl false hopes. Make no mistake, the situation sucks but at least a whole bunch of ppl got EAD which is a blessing.

I can help with the historical SOFAD figures.

Since the initial allocation was different in each year, it is easier to talk about spillover received.

EB2-I received 11.5k spillover in FY2008, 7.3k spillover in FY2009 and 16.9k spillover in FY2010. I would estimate that EB2-I received around 22.5k spillover in FY2011.

We need all views and I know exactly what you mean by something always comes along.

I hope your Googly, Chinaman, Doosra, Reverse Swing or whatever it takes saves the day!

[vizcard]

I moved HR3012 related posts to the Advocacy thread.

[pch053]

I can help with the historical SOFAD figures.

Since the initial allocation was different in each year, it is easier to talk about spillover received.

EB2-I received 11.5k spillover in FY2008, 7.3k spillover in FY2009 and 16.9k spillover in FY2010. I would estimate that EB2-I received around 22.5k spillover in FY2011.

We need all views and I know exactly what you mean by something always comes along.

I hope your Googly, Chinaman, Doosra, Reverse Swing or whatever it takes saves the day!

Spec,
I was going through the numbers from your earlier post and I feel you are spot on with your assumptions. Assuming EB2-ROW remains current for FY 2013, all I485 applications roughly need to be submitted by May'13 in order to get approved by end of Sep'13. We already have ~11K pending EB2-ROW applications plus there will be new applications from July'12 - May'13 that will be approvable by the end of 2013. So, it is one year's quota of EB2-ROW + additional 11K applications. I forgot the exact #'s for FA from EB2-ROW to EB2-I/C in the previous years but I don't remember that to be in the order of 10K - 11K. Or in other words, if the FA is usually less than 11K, we can't expect any FA in 2013 from EB2-ROW to EB2-I/C. Also, for the porting, are you considering only EB2I porting or are you considering porting for EB2-I+C+ROW? CO's estimate for EB3->EB2 porting seemed to be quite high as compared to what we all conjectured but one probable reason was we omitted the ROW contribution while counting the porting numbers.

I haven't followed the EB5 #'s that closely but based on your analysis, it seems that EB5 filings have increased significantly in the last year (maybe, they will ave a cut-off date as well at some point if EB5 doesn't provide any spillover visas). So, the main hope for SO, is any FD from EB1. We know that EB1 approval has increased this year; do we have any information on how the approvals of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C are compared to the past year. I think, statistically EB1C has consumed 60% of the total EB1 allocation; so are we seeing a significant rise in EB1C approvals as well?

Anyway, these are just some of my ramblings and will look forward to your thoughts on the same!

[gc4a_k]

What is so hard to understand? Employer (petitioner) needs to pay the fee by law. I don't know what your client payment to your employer have to do with this discussion.

Dude, read the posts completely before commenting. I commented on Spec's post where he said it is illegal for employers to deduct visa fees from salary. I know employers have to pay by law. Admins, please delete all posts related to this.

[mrdeeds]

Dude, read the posts completely before commenting. I commented on Spec's post where he said it is illegal for employers to deduct visa fees from salary. I know employers have to pay by law. Admins, please delete all posts related to this.

gc4a_k, I get the spirit of your point but unfortunately, what you get is x-y = z. Z is your salary.

Deducting from Z is illegal. Y can include profit margin, overhead costs, G&A etc. etc. However, that's employer's cost bearing (and that's factored in in determining Y) and not yours as far as the legality of it goes.

[asankaran]

Hi Q, Spec, Teddy and other Gurus,

Could some one come up with predictions for EB2 if HR 3012 becomes law by September/October ?

[ajaydons]

Just came across this

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/...eID_1502=41746

[sreddy]

Do you see any movement? Anything in news about HR 3012?

Hi Q, Spec, Teddy and other Gurus,

Could some one come up with predictions for EB2 if HR 3012 becomes law by September/October ?

[GhostWriter]

Spec, thanks for a great post (as usual). Your predictions have been quite accurate and more so in this year. Even if there is a 2-3 month variance from what you predict, it will not change the big picture for EB2-I, that in absence of a reform the GC wait times are going to increase significantly and will break the past threshold of 4-5 years for this category. Nothing can be expected from EB2-WW given their own cut-off date. The two positive surprises for 2013 for EB2-I can be
1. HR3012 passes (or some other regulatory relief)
2. EB-1 demand in 2013 decreases. There is no reason it should or should not and as you point out current I-140 filings indicate a sustained high demand but something that can change. Though i agree the chances are low and probably the usage won't reduce significantly even if it does reduce.

I also realize that you are posting your forecasts assuming no changes in the laws and I also realize that it is still soon to expect one. But regulatory changes are a good thing to incorporate in the forecasts (irrespective of one's opinion about them) as they will impact the predictions. Given the recent development (yesterday's hold removal) it might be time to lay out the assumption more explicitly in your post on page 1 or better to have a calculation for the alternate scenario if HR-3012 does pass in 2013 (a lot of people including me would love that calculation ).

Again, i am a huge fan of your analysis and do not intend to offend you in any way. If there is no reform then i totally agree with what you have presented, i do not think it is pessimistic, seems very realistic to me.

How much Fall Down might we get in FY2013?

...
If EB4 doesn't contribute, then the only Fall Down might be from EB1 itself. Unless EB1 I-140 numbers have dropped dramatically, EB1 is likely to l use 34-36k visas, giving only 4-6k Fall Down. Some of this might even be used by EB2-WW.

That doesn't appear to be sufficient spillover to clear PDs of 2007, unless EB4 makes a contribution.

In the absolute worst case, EB2-I might only have 2.8k visas available in FY2013, which wouldn't even sustain a Cut Off Date in August 2007 once porting is factored in.

Admittedly, I am painting the grimmest possible scenario, but I think it is one we should at least think about.

Even at best, SOFAD is not going to be very high next year IMO. If pressed, I think 8k visas to EB2-I is a maximum. EB2-C will only get 2.8k regardless, but that is enough to move them into 2008 because of their lower number of applications.

Please feel free to rip it apart. I realise I have used fairly aggressive assumptions, but I don't feel comfortable with less at the moment.

Being the lone pessimistic voice doesn't feel good. I don't derive any pleasure from it at all and frankly I am loathe to post predictions because of that.

I'd really like to think I have missed something obvious, but I just can't see it. I appreciate all opinions.

Thanks for confirming Spec. You did not mention any regulatory change like HR3012 under tailwinds. Do you consider it quite unlikely even after the presidential elections are over.

[Spectator]

Ghostwriter,

No offence taken.

I have been running some models, of course, but I prefer to post free of what might happen. There have been developments since the last time I updated the front page post.

I will be happy to offer an updated forecast when we know what has, or might, pass. I think it is a little early yet.

At the moment, we don't even know when it will be effective from. That makes a difference and may be subject to change.

Let me ask you a question.

If we said that Indian Porting is 3k / year at present and Chinese Porting is 1k / year, what would it increase to with a much greater Cut Off Date Movement?

Or, what do you think it is now, how much would it increase?

That is one of the questions I have been asking myself, since it impacts the movement.

[kd2008]

Spec,

You may want to check out PERM data on trackitt. Qualitatively it is pretty good in spotting trends. It is not easy to sort out EB3 to EB2 upgrades but if you do a random sampling for fiscal years, I believe you could calculate YOY increase in porting.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec. You played the googly quite well, i was afraid that i might bowl you out . I agree it is still early and also understand the complications you mentioned.
Here is my quick opinion regarding your porting question.

1. Porting is a function of differential in priority dates and the speed of movement in the two categories. So for EB2-I that differential increased from 5 years as per Oct-2011 bulletin to 8 years as per April-2012 bulletin. I know porting is one of the hardest numbers to estimate as there is not much data but the increase in last six months (if it could be guessed !!) gives us the rate for 3 year change in PD. So if you think porting was 3K per year just before the category became unavailable and it was 2.5K last year then 0.5K is the change caused by 3 years of movement in PD. Add a little for the fact that it was forcibly stopped and prevented some potential candidates to port.

2. For EB2-ROW the differential as per April visa bulletin was 6 years. Their rate of change in porting with movement in PD might be different from EB2-I but for a start i would assume the same number for two. The actual porting numbers can be different, it is just the rate at which porting will increase with per year of movement.

So essentially the estimate for change in porting will come down to how fast EB2 moves vs EB3 as both will move. If the combined EB2 (IC+ ROW) settles at somewhere in 2009 and combined EB3 (IC+ ROW) settles at somewhere in 2004 then we have 5 years of difference. So the porting per year for EB2-I or EB2-ROW should not increase much more than it is now.
It also depends on the speed with which dates move in EB2 vs. EB3 and we will need to see how that changes with the new bill.

3. An alternative argument can be that merging various countries will not change the average speed or total allocation in EB2 or EB3. It will increase the speed in EB2-I while decreasing it slightly in Eb2-ROW. Same for EB3. So if porting increases in ROW it might be offset by decrease in porting for I. It sounds weird but EB3-I will have more hope in their own category than now.


The above are just some thoughts and could be quite off.
Also if you have been thinking about it then there is nothing i could have said above that you wouldn't have thought of already

Ghostwriter,

No offence taken.

I have been running some models, of course, but I prefer to post free of what might happen. There have been developments since the last time I updated the front page post.

I will be happy to offer an updated forecast when we know what has, or might, pass. I think it is a little early yet.

At the moment, we don't even know when it will be effective from. That makes a difference and may be subject to change.

Let me ask you a question.

If we said that Indian Porting is 3k / year at present and Chinese Porting is 1k / year, what would it increase to with a much greater Cut Off Date Movement?

Or, what do you think it is now, how much would it increase?

That is one of the questions I have been asking myself, since it impacts the movement.

[veni001]

2. EB-1 demand in 2013 decreases. There is no reason it should or should not and as you point out current I-140 filings indicate a sustained high demand but something that can change. Though i agree the chances are low and probably the usage won't reduce significantly even if it does reduce.

How much Fall Down might we get in FY2013?

...
If EB4 doesn't contribute, then the only Fall Down might be from EB1 itself. Unless EB1 I-140 numbers have dropped dramatically, EB1 is likely to l use 34-36k visas, giving only 4-6k Fall Down. Some of this might even be used by EB2-WW.

MurthyBulletin : Vol. XVIII, no. 28; 13.Jul.2012

Positive Trends in EB1 Petitions

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Veni. So the scrutiny in EB1 will continue to be high though the implementation will become more consistent across adjudicators. At the same time lawyers seem to be getting smarter to get cases approved in the higher scrutiny environment. So the net effect will become more clear over next few months.
The quote within quote in your post was quite cool !!

MurthyBulletin : Vol. XVIII, no. 28; 13.Jul.2012

Positive Trends in EB1 Petitions

[kd2008]

AILA has posted this:

FY2012 Employment-Based Fifth Preference Visa Usage (.pdf 458 KB) DOS chart with EB-5 visa usage for October 2011 through June 2012. Special thanks to Stephen Yale-Loehr.

Unfortunately, it is restricted. If any one has access to this data please post. Thanks!

[openaccount]

AILA has posted this:

FY2012 Employment-Based Fifth Preference Visa Usage (.pdf 458 KB) DOS chart with EB-5 visa usage for October 2011 through June 2012. Special thanks to Stephen Yale-Loehr.

Unfortunately, it is restricted. If any one has access to this data please post. Thanks!

kd,

here it is

http://lawbw.com/home/eb5-visa-usage...p-5-countries/


EB5 visa usage as of 6/2012(top 5 countries)

On July 11, 2012, Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control at the State Department, provided the FY2012 Employment-Based Fifth preference issuance totals for the top five countries (89%), for the period October through June. He expects that the FY2012 EB-5 visa usage will be approximately 6,200.--Matches exactly with Spec's earlier estimate

Country C5 T5 I5 R5 Total

China 60 85 3,562 3 3,710

Korea, South 7 12 316 0 335

Taiwan 3 4 99 0 106

Venezuela 0 6 76 0 82

Iran 2 2 65 0 69

Worldwide 114; 134; 4,560; 5; 4,813

China counts 77% of total EB5 visa usage.

C5 is traditional investor in TEA

T5 is traditional investor in non TEA;

I5 is regional center program for TEA;

R5 is regional center program for none TEA.

Only 5% of EB5 visas were issued to non regional center investors.

It looks that we will not see EB5 visa running out this year. If the regional center law is extended in September, 2012, which is likely, we think we may see EB5 visa numbers running out in 2013.

Based on this we can forget about any SO from EB5 in future.

[Spectator]

openaccount,

Good job!

I'll have to be quicker!

I was just about to post that as well.