EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vizcard]

Another couple of statistics from the FY2012 Q2 All Forms Report.

Compared to the same time period in the FY2011 Report, Employment Based I-485 Receipts are 58.6k higher and Employment Based I-485 Approvals are 29.0k higher.

That seems to be about in line with the predictions.

This tells me that when pushed the USCIS is capable of working faster. Of course I didn't check to see if they increased their head count but I can't imagine they increased it a whole lot.

[sandeep11]

If you are on H1B, and your initial I-129 mentioned your work location as A and your new work location B is 'not' mentioned in the I-129 then you need an ammendment. If both the locations are mentioned on the initial I-129 then you don't need an ammendment.

Location change is considered a material change and warrants a ammendment. This is what I learned from my attorney.

i think LCA should be enough. I work in EVC model and changed my client from one location (state) to another. I only had to file for LCA.

[gc4a_k]

If you are on H1B, and your initial I-129 mentioned your work location as A and your new work location B is 'not' mentioned in the I-129 then you need an ammendment. If both the locations are mentioned on the initial I-129 then you don't need an ammendment.

Location change is considered a material change and warrants a ammendment. This is what I learned from my attorney.

that i think is when you are not working under EVC model. my employer location did not change, only my client.

[suninphx]

Location change is considered a material change and warrants a ammendment. This is what I learned from my attorney.

This is a topic of ongoing debate and different attorneys have different opinions. My personal experience is that big Indian companies do not file amendement (just a LCA change). But again each case is different and one needs to go as per what company attorney advices(as there is nothing you can do by yourself...H1 being company filed petition).

[kd2008]

This is a topic of ongoing debate and different attorneys have different opinions. My personal experience is that big Indian companies do not file amendement (just a LCA change). But again each case is different and one needs to go as per what company attorney advices(as there is nothing you can do by yourself...H1 being company filed petition).

The details of change of location matter. If the move is within the same Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) then only a new LCA is needed. Otherwise an amendment is needed. This what my attorney told me as my office might be moving.

[suninphx]

The details of change of location matter. If the move is within the same Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) then only a new LCA is needed. Otherwise an amendment is needed. This what my attorney told me as my office might be moving.

As I said there is no agreement on topic 'if location change is material change or not'. USCIS has not enforced the policy in uniform way hence every attorney advices based on his/her stand. Again, nothing you can do by yourself either ways so best way is go by their advice.

[gc2008]

I guess, one needs to go for H1B amendment when location is changed. Surprise DHS visits happening more common lately. If the the visiting officer does not find the beneficiary in the location mentioned in I 129 during such visits, the officer will report USCIS that the beneficiary is not in the location mentioned in I 129. After 6 or 7 months, USCIS will send a NOIR of H1B and mostly it will result in revocation from the date on which H1B approved. So this will lead to out of status since the H1B approval date.

[suninphx]

I guess, one needs to go for H1B amendment when location is changed. Surprise DHS visits happening more common lately. If the the visiting officer does not find the beneficiary in the location mentioned in I 129 during such visits, the officer will report USCIS that the beneficiary is not in the location mentioned in I 129. After 6 or 7 months, USCIS will send a NOIR of H1B and mostly it will result in revocation from the date on which H1B approved. So this will lead to out of status since the H1B approval date.

If beneficiary is not found at the location the officer calls HR and takes new location details. And why would beneficiary out of status?

[gc2008]

If beneficiary is not found at the location the officer calls HR and takes new location details. And why would beneficiary out of status?

If the beneficiary is not present at the location mentioned in the i129, then you are right officer will call HR. Even after this officer concludes that there is no employer and employee relationship exist (and hence H1B rules been violated) as i129 was not updated and will send report to USCIS and recommend USCIS for H1B revocation. The beneficiary will be out of status as they will revoke H1B from the date of that particular H1B approval i.e they backdate the revocation. There are lot of cases effected because of this and you can find lots of discussions in trackitt and ** websites. Even Ron mentioned and it was discussed by Q before.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ocation-Change

Posts from trackitt:

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...got-ead-and-ap
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-please-advice
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...tent-of-revoke

[redsox2009]

Another couple of statistics from the FY2012 Q2 All Forms Report.

Compared to the same time period in the FY2011 Report, Employment Based I-485 Receipts are 58.6k higher and Employment Based I-485 Approvals are 29.0k higher.
That seems to be about in line with the predictions.

That is beacuse last year same period no new from EB2 I & C applications were accepted and also approvals of the GC were done after March. I still think this is not something unusal as this year new 485 applications were accepted and GC's were issued. But the number is within in the range.

I remmeber last year they issued close to 43k per quarter, this year also they followed same rule and still puzzling to me what hapened to 43K visas for 3rd quarter.

[Spectator]

That is beacuse last year same period no new from EB2 I & C applications were accepted and also approvals of the GC were done after March. I still think this is not something unusal as this year new 485 applications were accepted and GC's were issued. But the number is within in the range.

I remmeber last year they issued close to 43k per quarter, this year also they followed same rule and still puzzling to me what hapened to 43K visas for 3rd quarter.

redsox,

I am aware of that. Maybe I should have spelt it out.

In fact, it is because of this that we can say that the increase is mostly due to EB2-IC, with an input from EB1 and less so from EB5. Once you net those off, it is supportive of about 23-25k EB2-IC approvals to date and somewhere around 60k EB2-IC receipts.

The maximum number of visas allowed by law to be allocated in each of the first 3 quarters is 27% (37.8k). Given that CP accounts for 10%, the USCIS figures should max out at about 34k, since they only represent AOS cases.

Last year, FY2011, the quarterly USCIS approval numbers per quarter were 24k, 22k, 36k and 41k, which reflected the fact that EB2-IC Cut Off Dates did not move forward until the May 2011 VB.

In FY2012 they have been 32k & 43k which reflects that EB2-IC Cut Off dates moved from the beginning of the year and the latest Cut Off Date in FY2012 for EB2-IC was reached in the March VB. Most people would have filed in the period reported. There will be an extra number who left it until April to file. Approvals for EB2-IC dropped off dramatically after March 23, 2012, when DOS internally retrogressed to August 15, 2007. Subsequently, about April 11, 2012, DOS internally made EB2-IC Unavailable.

I would expect the Q3 & Q4 figures to be substantially lower than the corresponding F2011 figures.

Hope that explains it better.

[veni001]

redsox,

I am aware of that. Maybe I should have spelt it out.

In fact, it is because of this that we can say that the increase is mostly due to EB2-IC, with an input from EB1 and less so from EB5. Once you net those off, it is supportive of about 23-25k EB2-IC approvals to date and somewhere around 60k EB2-IC receipts.

The maximum number of visas allowed by law to be allocated in each of the first 3 quarters is 27% (37.8k). Given that CP accounts for 10%, the USCIS figures should max out at about 34k, since they only represent AOS cases.

Last year, FY2011, the quarterly USCIS approval numbers per quarter were 24k, 22k, 36k and 41k, which reflected the fact that EB2-IC Cut Off Dates did not move forward until the May 2011 VB.

In FY2012 they have been 32k & 43k which reflects that EB2-IC Cut Off dates moved from the beginning of the year and the latest Cut Off Date in FY2012 for EB2-IC was reached in the March VB. Most people would have filed in the period reported. There will be an extra number who left it until April to file. Approvals for EB2-IC dropped off dramatically after March 23, 2012, when DOS internally retrogressed to August 15, 2007. Subsequently, about April 11, 2012, DOS internally made EB2-IC Unavailable.

I would expect the Q3 & Q4 figures to be substantially lower than the corresponding F2011 figures.

Hope that explains it better.

Spec,
Another observation is EB5 data

2011: I-526
Q1+Q2 Receipts =2,564
Q1+Q2 Approvals =1,048

2012: I-526
Q1+Q2 Receipts =2,771
Q1+Q2 Approvals =2,100

Total FY 2011 i-526 Approvals = 1,571 and EB5 used 3,340 visas. This year at mid point itself EB5 usage is about 4.5K

Dashboard data show another 3,756 i-526 pending at USCIS as of March 2012.

[Spectator]

This year at mid point itself EB5 usage is about 4.5K

Veni,

Do you happen to have a source for that figure? It sounds about right, if approvals carried on at Q1 levels.

USCIS reported 2,364 as at January 17, 2012.

In a document dated March 16, 2012 iiusa.org reported a figure of 2,405. That doesn't seem correct and seems to refer to Q1 rather than Q2 as shown on the slides.

USCIS did not report the EB5 visas used in the EB5 Statistics reported at their last EB5 Stakeholder Meeting on May 1, 2012.

[kkruna]

Any possibility that the EB2 ROW cut-off actually sprang from CO's inclusion of HR3012 into decision? I think somebody in this forum talked of this earlier. It appeared like atributing a method to random process then. Does this look any more plausible now in light of AILA's news regarding Grassley loosening his 'hold'?

[veni001]

Veni,

Do you happen to have a source for that figure? It sounds about right, if approvals carried on at Q1 levels.

USCIS reported 2,364 as at January 17, 2012.

In a document dated March 16, 2012 iiusa.org reported a figure of 2,405. That doesn't seem correct and seems to refer to Q1 rather than Q2 as shown on the slides.

USCIS did not report the EB5 visas used in the EB5 Statistics reported at their last EB5 Stakeholder Meeting on May 1, 2012.

Spec,
My EB5 estimate is based on Q1 usage and Q2 I-526 approvals.

Veni

[yank]

Gurus,

Sorry for posting this question on this thread!

How CIS is going to address EAD/AP renewal as they have issued it for 1 yr? Is it going to be a automatic renewal as most likely visa's are not to be available? or Do we have to initiate the process?

Please share the documents required for the renewal.

[vizcard]

Gurus,

Sorry for posting this question on this thread!

How CIS is going to address EAD/AP renewal as they have issued it for 1 yr? Is it going to be a automatic renewal as most likely visa's are not to be available? or Do we have to initiate the process?

Please share the documents required for the renewal.

you will have to apply for an extension approx 3-4 months before expiration date. I don't think there are any documents required - just the form. if there are, I'm sure they are on the USCIS website along with the form.

[vedu]

Guys,

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for April, 2012. The downward trend in I-140 applications is continued. 4670 I-140 applications received in April, 2012 as compared to 7464 applications received in 2011. This is approximately 37% reduction on YoY basis.

Experts, any insights/comments?

[kd2008]

Guys,

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for April, 2012. The downward trend in I-140 applications is continued. 4670 I-140 applications received in April, 2012 as compared to 7464 applications received in 2011. This is approximately 37% reduction on YoY basis.

Experts, any insights/comments?

It is a temporary blip of slowdown. Veni pointed few pages ago that in April-May 11,000 PERMs were certified. Those will be filed with USCIS shortly and the filings for I-140 will show an increase.

[veni001]

Guys,

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for April, 2012. The downward trend in I-140 applications is continued. 4670 I-140 applications received in April, 2012 as compared to 7464 applications received in 2011. This is approximately 37% reduction on YoY basis.

Experts, any insights/comments?

It is a temporary blip of slowdown. Veni pointed few pages ago that in April-May 11,000 PERMs were certified. Those will be filed with USCIS shortly and the filings for I-140 will show an increase.

In-addition, see below for mid-year data comparison

FY2011: first-half
PERM Certifications = 35,147
I-140 Receipts = 42,096
I-140 Completions = 35,331
I-140 Approvals = 30,820 (12.76% denial rate)


FY2012: first-half
PERM Certifications = 16,556 (52.89% decrease)
I-140 Receipts = 37,143 (11.76% decrease)
I-140 Completions = 39,626
I-140 Approvals = 34,538 (12.84% denial rate)

FY2012 i-140 receipts decrease is far less compared to decrease in PERM certifications for the same period, which points towards higher EB1/EB2-NIW demand this year!

First half of FY2012 got more i-140 approvals at about the same % of i-140 denial rate, compared to FY2011.

[redsox2009]

Spec,
Another observation is EB5 data

2011: I-526
Q1+Q2 Receipts =2,564
Q1+Q2 Approvals =1,048

2012: I-526
Q1+Q2 Receipts =2,771
Q1+Q2 Approvals =2,100

Total FY 2011 i-526 Approvals = 1,571 and EB5 used 3,340 visas. This year at mid point itself EB5 usage is about 4.5K

Dashboard data show another 3,756 i-526 pending at USCIS as of March 2012.

I'm trying to understand the math and stats here. Don't misunderstand me.

As per report USCIS says 74953 GC's were issued under EB categories.

Now we know out of 74953, 40K were issued to EB2 till second half. 20k to EB3. 4.5K for EB5

so remaining 10k were issued to EB1 &EB4

If this trend continues then is it is possible we could be seeing dates moving atleast in last month that is September?

Any thoughts on this.

[Spectator]

I'm trying to understand the math and stats here. Don't misunderstand me.

As per report USCIS says 74953 GC's were issued under EB categories.

Now we know out of 74953, 40K were issued to EB2 till second half. 20k to EB3. 4.5K for EB5

so remaining 10k were issued to EB1 &EB4

If this trend continues then is it is possible we could be seeing dates moving atleast in last month that is September?

Any thoughts on this.

redsox2009,

Actually it is saying USCIS used 75k visas in Q1-Q2 FY2012, which only represent AOS cases.

After you add on CP cases, it represents about 84k total visas issued.

Then you have to look at the different CP rates for Categories/Countries. For instance, only about 20% of EB5 cases are dealt with by AOS and China and Philippines both have very large CP components in EB3.

After that is taken into account, together with trends since March, it really only comes down to whether EB2 will become completely Unavailable and whether EB1 retrogresses or not IMO.

[redsox2009]

Thanks for clearing............

[self.coach]

Hello folks,

Can we create an LLC or an S Corporation or any other form of company if you are on an EAD?

I got my EAD in March 2012. Please advise.

Thanks!

[vizcard]

Hello folks,

Can we create an LLC or an S Corporation or any other form of company if you are on an EAD?

I got my EAD in March 2012. Please advise.

Thanks!

yes.. you can.