EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vizcard]

We COULD see Eb2C become current some time in FY2014. Based on the current inventory, I could see a scenario where come Oct 2012, their COD moves to August 2008 since their cumulative demand for that period (less some RFEs, etc.) is less than their annual allocation. But at that point, it will be at a standstill until the next fiscal year since all SO will come EB2I based on rules.

I do believe that EB2C will stick to the same COD as EB2I just for optics. That way they also will have SFM rather than big movement and then stand still which just looks bad.

[tatikonda]

Spectator, we are missing you and your analysis on demand data.

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

Any hopes on HR 3012 becoming LAW.
Share your thoughts ...

[ton_vj]

Cross Posting from Immi Voice:
http://****************.org/forum/3400391-post863.html

something should be happen in this month before 28 don't worry. hope +vely


Upcoming Senate Immigration- and Refugee-Related Legislative Floor Actions


By Micheal E. Hill

The following immigration- or refugee-related floor actions could occur in the coming weeks:
Full Senate Could Take Up Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Bill Containing Immigration Provisions: The full Senate could at any time take up S. 1301, the "Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2011". The measure contains a number of provisions relating to alien trafficking victims.
The Senate Committee on the Judiciary approved its version of S. 1301 on October 13, 2011. It was formally reported to the full Senate on November 17, 2011.

At the time of this writing, no date for full Senate consideration of the measure had yet been set.

Full Senate Could Take Up Bill Revising Annual Per-Country Limits for Employment- and Family-Based Immigrant Visas: The full Senate could at any time take up H.R. 3012, the "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2011. As passed by the House of Representatives, the measure would eliminate the annual per-country limitations for employment-based immigrants, and it would increase the annual per-country limitations for family-based immigant visas from 7.5 percent of the total number of available visas to 15 percent of the total number of available visas. The House of Representatives passed H.R. 3012 on November 26, 2011, by a vote of 389-15.

At the time of this writing, no date for either full Senate or Senate Judiciary Committee consideration of the measure had yet been set.

[bvsamrat]

Can some one inform what will happen wth HR 3012 or point to a forum link?
Will this increase the annual quota from 140,000 or increase allocation to EB2?

Cross Posting from Immi Voice:
http://****************.org/forum/3400391-post863.html

something should be happen in this month before 28 don't worry. hope +vely


Upcoming Senate Immigration- and Refugee-Related Legislative Floor Actions


By Micheal E. Hill

The following immigration- or refugee-related floor actions could occur in the coming weeks:
Full Senate Could Take Up Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Bill Containing Immigration Provisions: The full Senate could at any time take up S. 1301, the "Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2011". The measure contains a number of provisions relating to alien trafficking victims.
The Senate Committee on the Judiciary approved its version of S. 1301 on October 13, 2011. It was formally reported to the full Senate on November 17, 2011.

At the time of this writing, no date for full Senate consideration of the measure had yet been set.

Full Senate Could Take Up Bill Revising Annual Per-Country Limits for Employment- and Family-Based Immigrant Visas: The full Senate could at any time take up H.R. 3012, the "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2011. As passed by the House of Representatives, the measure would eliminate the annual per-country limitations for employment-based immigrants, and it would increase the annual per-country limitations for family-based immigant visas from 7.5 percent of the total number of available visas to 15 percent of the total number of available visas. The House of Representatives passed H.R. 3012 on November 26, 2011, by a vote of 389-15.

At the time of this writing, no date for either full Senate or Senate Judiciary Committee consideration of the measure had yet been set.

[qesehmk]

What this does is - it institutes a FIFO (first in first out) system. This way all countries within a category will have same wait time.

EB2IC will be beneficiaries and EB2ROW will have to wait 18 months or more.

EB3IC will be beneficiary but the wait times will still be extraordinary compared to EB2.

While HR3012 is good - it is still not good enough for all immigrants. There needs to be push for another bill that aims at removing or at least doubling the overall quota for employment immigration.

This way the government can actually control immigration through clearance of labor rather than immigration quota. In other words - if Labor proves that there is a labor shortage then why there should be any immigration quota at all. Just my 2 cents. People who like advocacy would do well to think seriously about it.

Can some one inform what will happen wth HR 3012 or point to a forum link?
Will this increase the annual quota from 140,000 or increase allocation to EB2?

[veni001]

evoori and gcgrp - EB2C indeed has real low demand. However unfortunately they are still at that threshold where they will continue to have cutoff date. But if their demand drops below 2800 per year, they will become part of ROWEB2. I hope it does sometime soon. Otherwise EB2C's fate is tied to EB2I unfortunately.

Analyzing EB-485 inventory (preliminary?) published by USCIS last week, looks like it is not a possibility in distant future!
EB2IC together got ~48K pending applications (not counting any porting) with PD before 01MAY2010

I have similar question, the total pending EB3-C is 2400. Does it mean it will be current (or cross July 2007 mark) in next 1 year ?

Only if EB3ROW becomes current and EB3C demand remain less than its annual allowed numbers (~2,800)

[vizcard]

What this does is - it institutes a FIFO (first in first out) system. This way all countries within a category will have same wait time.

EB2IC will be beneficiaries and EB2ROW will have to wait 18 months or more.

EB3IC will be beneficiary but the wait times will still be extraordinary compared to EB2.

While HR3012 is good - it is still not good enough for all immigrants. There needs to be push for another bill that aims at removing or at least doubling the overall quota for employment immigration.

This way the government can actually control immigration through clearance of labor rather than immigration quota. In other words - if Labor proves that there is a labor shortage then why there should be any immigration quota at all. Just my 2 cents. People who like advocacy would do well to think seriously about it.

I would add one more point. There is a transition clause in there where in the first 2 (or 3?) years its not a perfect FIFO. It basically says that not more than 85% will be given to any one country. .. something like that.

[qesehmk]

veni

we are talking about EB2C there. Not the entire EB2 category.

Analyzing EB-485 inventory (preliminary?) published by USCIS last week, looks like it is not a possibility in distant future!
EB2IC together got ~48K pending applications (not counting any porting) with PD before 01MAY2010



Only if EB3ROW becomes current and EB3C demand remain less than its annual allowed numbers (~2,800)

Evoori - I just realized you had asked about EB3C. So for EB3C, there is a lot more CP demand which together with 485 exceeds 2800 easily. Which is why difficult that EB3C will become current.

[evoori]

veni

we are talking about EB2C there. Not the entire EB2 category.



Evoori - I just realized you had asked about EB3C. So for EB3C, there is a lot more CP demand which together with 485 exceeds 2800 easily. Which is why difficult that EB3C will become current.

Thanks.. I was totally missing the CP cases..

Can we say that EB3C porters are victim here ? even though there is only 2400 EB3C pending 485, I doubt there will be to many porters from there but DOS made EB2C as U along with EB2I.. and now they also cannot port..

[qesehmk]

Life can sometimes be a b-----. I don't know what to say Evoori. It really sucks.

Thanks.. I was totally missing the CP cases..

Can we say that EB3C porters are victim here ? even though there is only 2400 EB3C pending 485, I doubt there will be to many porters from there but DOS made EB2C as U along with EB2I.. and now they also cannot port..

[ct06511]

Based on the current demand data, any prediction on what the cutoff dates could be in Q1 2013 (Qct, Nov, Dec) for EB2I and EB2C? Assume there is or isn't QSP. It is possible to clear 1/2008 in Q1? Thanks!

[veni001]

veni
we are talking about EB2C there. Not the entire EB2 category.

Q,
Even EB2C got 8,337 pending applications with PD before 01MAY2010, which is almost equal to three years regular allocation.

[vedu]

From the latest inventory report, I noticed that EB2 ROW is current in spite of having 11,189 case pending. So based on the same logic, USCIS does not need to clear all 39,577 pending EB2 I cases for the dates to start moving again. On the contrary, USCIS will always be required to keep more buffer of EB2I pending cases as compared to EB2 ROW cases in order to ensure no wastage of visas in any given year.

What do you guys think?

[PD2008AUG25]

From the latest inventory report, I noticed that EB2 ROW is current in spite of having 11,189 case pending. So based on the same logic, USCIS does not need to clear all 39,577 pending EB2 I cases for the dates to start moving again. On the contrary, USCIS will always be required to keep more buffer of EB2I pending cases as compared to EB2 ROW cases in order to ensure no wastage of visas in any given year.

What do you guys think?

True, however they do have to clear all the cases in demand data for moving dates again beyond 1 May 2010. We will see, but majority of 39,577 pending cases will show in up demand data in few months.

[vedu]

My point is that at any given point of time, there will always be 15,000 to 20,000 EB2 IC cases pending in the inventory. The inventory doesn't have to reach zero for dates to go beyond May 01, 2010. This level of inventory is absolutely necessary in order to take care of processing times, spill over, etc. For example, if we get 25,000 spill over next year (just an assumption), then at the end of the next year, USCIS/DOS will have to push the dates beyond 01 May 2010 in order to maintain an adequate level of inventory. In summary, I don't agree with the guys who think that it will take three years worth of spill over for the dates to go beyond 01 May 2010.

True, however they do have to clear all the cases in demand data for moving dates again beyond 1 May 2010. We will see, but majority of 39,577 pending cases will show in up demand data in few months.

[PD2008AUG25]

My point is that at any given point of time, there will always be 15,000 to 20,000 EB2 IC cases pending in the inventory. The inventory doesn't have to reach zero for dates to go beyond May 01, 2010. This level of inventory is absolutely necessary in order to take care of processing times, spill over, etc. For example, if we get 25,000 spill over next year (just an assumption), then at the end of the next year, USCIS/DOS will have to push the dates beyond 01 May 2010 in order to maintain an adequate level of inventory. In summary, I don't agree with the guys who think that it will take three years worth of spill over for the dates to go beyond 01 May 2010.

Definition of cut-off date doesn't seem to support what you believe.

The cut-off date for an oversubscribed category is the priority date of the first applicant who could not be reached within the numerical limits.


Let's assume, at some hypothetical point in future just 10k is remaining in demand data, rest is cleared. If no more numbers are available that FY CO can not push dates to generate inventory. that would mean issuing visa to those 10k people.

CO doesn't seem to care that much about inventory as people suggest. He didn't move dates until demand data was less than 1k. He knew moving cut-off dates by years would generate more than adequate inventory for current fiscal, still he kept feeding us "low demand data" ruse. By moving dates aggressively in 4-5 months, he was more than able to generate enough documentarily qualified applications to meet any surge in SOFADs.

CO wouldn't have to do these things if there were simply 2 different dates. One for assigning visa numbers to adjudicated applications and another for filing i-485. Without that he will have to keep playing this game.

[vedu]

Exactly, the CO will repeat the same thing time and again. The inventory doesn't have to and will never reach zero. No matter which pending inventory report you look at since last few years, you will always see pending EB2 IC inventory in the excess of 10,000-15,000. With the same logic, as soon as the current inventory goes back to around 15,000, we will see next movement beyond May 01, 2010.

Definition of cut-off date doesn't seem to support what you believe.

The cut-off date for an oversubscribed category is the priority date of the first applicant who could not be reached within the numerical limits.


Let's assume, at some hypothetical point in future just 10k is remaining in demand data, rest is cleared. If no more numbers are available that FY CO can not push dates to generate inventory. that would mean issuing visa to those 10k people.

CO doesn't seem to care that much about inventory as people suggest. He didn't move dates until demand data was less than 1k. He knew moving cut-off dates by years would generate more than adequate inventory for current fiscal, still he kept feeding us "low demand data" ruse. By moving dates aggressively in 4-5 months, he was more than able to generate enough documentarily qualified applications to meet any surge in SOFADs.

CO wouldn't have to do these things if there were simply 2 different dates. One for assigning visa numbers to adjudicated applications and another for filing i-485. Without that he will have to keep playing this game.

[bvsamrat]

Since when this 140,000 quota is put in place? Is there any effort or or plan to introdce any bill in the past or future to increase?

I agree. With PERM, one should get automatic GC. This is what happens in other countries. Atleast with more strict UCIS control, misuse can be avoided.

What this does is - it institutes a FIFO (first in first out) system. This way all countries within a category will have same wait time.

EB2IC will be beneficiaries and EB2ROW will have to wait 18 months or more.

EB3IC will be beneficiary but the wait times will still be extraordinary compared to EB2.

While HR3012 is good - it is still not good enough for all immigrants. There needs to be push for another bill that aims at removing or at least doubling the overall quota for employment immigration.

This way the government can actually control immigration through clearance of labor rather than immigration quota. In other words - if Labor proves that there is a labor shortage then why there should be any immigration quota at all. Just my 2 cents. People who like advocacy would do well to think seriously about it.

[vizcard]

My point is that at any given point of time, there will always be 15,000 to 20,000 EB2 IC cases pending in the inventory. The inventory doesn't have to reach zero for dates to go beyond May 01, 2010. This level of inventory is absolutely necessary in order to take care of processing times, spill over, etc. For example, if we get 25,000 spill over next year (just an assumption), then at the end of the next year, USCIS/DOS will have to push the dates beyond 01 May 2010 in order to maintain an adequate level of inventory. In summary, I don't agree with the guys who think that it will take three years worth of spill over for the dates to go beyond 01 May 2010.

Fundamentally, I don't disagree with what you posted. But I'd like to point out a couple of things.

1. When you move dates, anyone in that time period is eligible for a GC if they are pre-adjudicated. Playing out your scenario where we get 25K SOFAD next year and we clear out 2008 - CO moves it to May 2010. In this situation, you could see cases where someone with Apr 2010 PD getting GC before Jan 2009. I know this is extreme but its possible. CO wants to avoid this and try to keep it FIFO thats the reason for moving it to Aug 2007 so that earlier PDs would get GC first ... otherwise he could have just left the dates at May 2010.

Secondly, Inventory = Demand + applications that haven't been processed. The key is the latter part of the equation. That part needs to be considered when moving dates.

When they moved dates this time, CO's explanation was that "demand was low" and not "inventory was low" implying that as long as there is demand, there is no immediate need to move dates. So history could repeat itself in terms of strategy.

There are other factors in play too - primarily workload and directions given. EB applications are only a portion of what they do. Given the timing, they may have to shift gears to reissuing EAD/APs and stop or slow down processing 485s. . The other possibility is USCIS might say that we have sufficient demand for the next year and half, so let's stop working on EB2IC for now and shift our focus to something else that's more immediate. I know if I was running the show, I would probably do this.

[vizcard]

Since when this 140,000 quota is put in place? Is there any effort or or plan to introdce any bill in the past or future to increase?

I agree. With PERM, one should get automatic GC. This is what happens in other countries. Atleast with more strict UCIS control, misuse can be avoided.

The other weird part is that, when PERMS are approved it is at a point in time usually 4-5 yrs before the actual GC is issued. The labor availability situation could change dramatically in those 4-5 yrs. In 2007 and most of 2008, the economy was good, unemployment was low, there was a genuine shortage of skilled labor. Now I don't know for sure. Maybe its still there but I guarantee that there is less shortage now than in 2007/2008.

[tatikonda]

All,

Here is new article on HR 3012. Nothing much new..

I was little confused with following quotes,
Gurus, please share your ideas !!

Senator Grassley seemed to be more amenable to Senator Schumer's bill although there were rumors that he wanted to place more safeguards on the Irish E-3 proposal.

It was finally rumored that Senator Schumer said that the Democrats were not holding up the bill, but rather Senator Brown who had boasted to his Irish constituents that the Irish visa bill was "about to pop."

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0515-lee.shtm

Thank you

[veni001]

Based on the current demand data, any prediction on what the cutoff dates could be in Q1 2013 (Qct, Nov, Dec) for EB2I and EB2C? Assume there is or isn't QSP. It is possible to clear 1/2008 in Q1? Thanks!

There are several unknowns but, considering the fact that both EB1 and EB2ROW may have a COD before end of FY2012 and last weeks EB-485 inventory data, i am not expecting EB2I move any further than 15AUG2007 before Q3 of FY 2013.

On the other hand EB2C could move to mid 2008 by Q2 of FY2013.

[natvyas]

There are several unknowns but, considering the fact that both EB1 and EB2ROW may have a COD before end of FY2012 and last weeks EB-485 inventory data, i am not expecting EB2I move any further than 15AUG2007 before Q3 of FY 2013.

On the other hand EB2C could move to mid 2008 by Q2 of FY2013.

Veni

Dont you think EB2I should move because of the 2800 that would be available starting Oct 12?

Regards
Nat

[vishnu]

It won't move but probably brought back to Aug 2007 - the idea being that there will be sufficient porting numbers to absorb the 2800 visas.