EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[redsox2009]

Looke like something is brewing @ state dept. I still could not belive how could they come up with those crazy predictions. State dept might be fixing the crazy visa bulletin and come up with correct predictions.

Perhaps I'm still in stuck in disbelief zone or not ready to accept the truth.

[bvsamrat]

If we expect 20-25K by October 2012-April 2013, then the inevtory would be reduced by April 2013 to about 15K then the dates may move atleast to one more year to have more inventory. Is this possible?

The data from the pre-PERM years are meaningless now because most categories used to be current and because of the hugh backlog and delays during the I-140 stage, visas were routinely wasted.

Data from FY 2008 are valid because only then, things had stabilized post 2007 event.

In FY 2011, EB2-IC received around 36K visas I believe, which is the maximum extent of the spillover. This years estimates range between 20 and 25K.

[suninphx]

Sun my understanding of porting is that until the final step of interfiling the case remains classified as EB3 and as soon as the interfiling process is completed it becomes EB2. So potentially we may never see porting cases as part of the inventory which is published every 3 months. So if we assume the baseline as 2200 which is the OR of 1 the actual OR for 2008 would be between .85 to as much as .95.

The assumption of only 5K approvals from 2008 is fairly liberal it is actually more. Here is why there have been ~ 15K approvals in feb - mar 2012. In 2007 here are still 6K cases left now if we assume 2007 cases approved as say 8K then the 2007 density goes above 2200, however let’s settle for this. This gives at minimum 7K 2008 approvals.
What are your thoughts about 2009 figures from the inventory, to me that is still WIP.

We have to some way accout for the porting number otherwise OR is going to be always incorrect. For me the whole inventory is WIP for two reasons..a)for cases still being processed b) USCIS not be removing approved cases (as reported by Kanmani). Lets hope that we get near real numbers in next inveroty as things will be 'U' for a while.

[murali83]

If we expect 20-25K by October 2012-April 2013, then the inevtory would be reduced by April 2013 to about 15K then the dates may move atleast to one more year to have more inventory. Is this possible?

If we get a mid point of what you say 22.5K, we have 47.5 K now. So we will have 25K left. That is more than enuf for one more FY. So my guess is they wont move dates. beyond May 2010 until end of FY 2014.

[bvsamrat]

Okay. Then it all might depend on how many are in adjudicated by October 2012. If this number is lower, then the PD may progress again.

If we get a mid point of what you say 22.5K, we have 47.5 K now. So we will have 25K left. That is more than enuf for one more FY. So my guess is they wont move dates. beyond May 2010 until end of FY 2014.

[vizcard]

If we expect 20-25K by October 2012-April 2013, then the inevtory would be reduced by April 2013 to about 15K then the dates may move atleast to one more year to have more inventory. Is this possible?

If we get a mid point of what you say 22.5K, we have 47.5 K now. So we will have 25K left. That is more than enuf for one more FY. So my guess is they wont move dates. beyond May 2010 until end of FY 2014.

Okay. Then it all might depend on how many are in adjudicated by October 2012. If this number is lower, then the PD may progress again.

i think 22K SOFAD is aggressive at this time. Especially if there is a COD for EB1 and EB2ROW.

[murali83]

Okay. Then it all might depend on how many are in adjudicated by October 2012. If this number is lower, then the PD may progress again.

You can pretty sure that USCIS will pre-adjudicate at least 80% of the inventory by Oct 2012. People who filed in feb 2012 are already getting rfe's. They seem to be doing fine in terms of processing speed.

[bvsamrat]

140,000 quota. Since when this had been in place and what efforts needed for this to be amended?

[Jonty Rhodes]

June Visa Bulletin is back again on State Department's Website.

Don't know why they took it down and what did they change really because the content is similar to the previous version released few days ago.

[TeddyKoochu]

We have to some way accout for the porting number otherwise OR is going to be always incorrect. For me the whole inventory is WIP for two reasons..a)for cases still being processed b) USCIS not be removing approved cases (as reported by Kanmani). Lets hope that we get near real numbers in next inveroty as things will be 'U' for a while.

Sun you made a very significant point the next inventory should truly be the best snapshot either to remove the dead wood (Approved cases) or to document any additional cases (2009 and 2010).

The OR according to Spec's definition is purely a ratio of perm to 485 for the specific duration. Porting for that rest from EB3 to EB2 could happen for a range of people right from 2002 to say 2007 or 2010 wherever the dates are so porting should be handled separately. Since previous calculations wee able to narrow it to ~ 3K per annum I had suggested that we approximate it to 300 PM and make our model as 2.5K per month with the 300 porting coming from the full range. For OR purposes we should however just consider 2200. Noteworthy point is Spec had given a calculation few days back which showed porting as 6K.

[Mavrick]

I want to go into hibernation and worry about EB2 dates back in June 2013. I seriously hope that the political climate changes soon and senate takes up HR 3012 - I know it is wishful thinking but can't resist

[vizcard]

140,000 quota. Since when this had been in place and what efforts needed for this to be amended?

If I were you, I'd focus the efforts on HR3012.

[suninphx]

Sun you made a very significant point the next inventory should truly be the best snapshot either to remove the dead wood (Approved cases) or to document any additional cases (2009 and 2010).

The OR according to Spec's definition is purely a ratio of perm to 485 for the specific duration. Porting for that rest from EB3 to EB2 could happen for a range of people right from 2002 to say 2007 or 2010 wherever the dates are so porting should be handled separately. Since previous calculations wee able to narrow it to ~ 3K per annum I had suggested that we approximate it to 300 PM and make our model as 2.5K per month with the 300 porting coming from the full range. For OR purposes we should however just consider 2200. Noteworthy point is Spec had given a calculation few days back which showed porting as 6K.

True that porting date can be anything. But still needs to be accounted for. And yes, Spec correctly pointed out about 6K porting (which is same as your orginal estimate). As we have moving numbers OR does not make sense for now. So lets discuss it when we have stable numbers. One thing seems for sure that OR will be >=1 for coming years(specially for years post 2009) ..assuming economy stays way it is. (plus higher porting)

[murali83]

Guys,

Overall if we assume that, 2008 pd's have been given 6K visas (thats the centrist numbers between the 5K and the 7K). If we look at the inventory, it has 6K pending cases before 2008. If the 2008 pd's were not issued visas, then dates would have reached 01-Jan-2008 approx. Isn't this what the gurus on this forum always predicted. So imho, the inventory data shows nothing alarming, nor is the porting at unexpected levels. In fact i believe that the numbers in the above lines support what Q, Spec, Teddy and others have always predicted, that FY 2012 will end around 1st week of Jan or last week of Dec 2007. I guess we are just carried away by sweeping events and sweeping statements from Mr. CO.

As far as the inventory data is concerned, I had posted a slightly different type of calculation some time back. If we go along same lines again,

I am not discounting the 5% for tough cases here, because inventory will have everyone.

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, 35% remain in the system).
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, 88% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, 91% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2009 - Dec 30, 2009 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2010 - Apr 30, 2010 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)

Now if we take 2007 to be the base year, lets say X applications per month. Based on trackitt, I would say 2008 is 0.84X applications per month. 2009 is 0.55X per month. 2010 is 0.6X.

In fact I used this 0.55X for 2009 from trackitt just based total registered trackitt users by year. Now if you look at the inventory released and add 6K to the 2008 inventory (already approved 6K cases), it comes to approx 15.1 (india) + 3.3 (China) + the 6K = 23.4. Lets say 0.84X=23.4K, it gives 0.55X = approx 15.3K and the inventory has approx 16K for EB2I-C for the year 2009. So trackitt seems to be doing ok in terms of ratios.

So now going back to pending inventory, we have

35% of 6.5 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 88% of 3.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 91% of 6 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 100% of 2009 (0.55X) + 100% of 4 months of 2010 ( 0.6X)

= approx 20.5 months of inventory on a 2007 scale density. The inventory for EB2I-C from April 2007 to April 2010 is 46431 (I omitted the inventory prior to that)

This means 20.5 months of 2007 = 46431, which means 2007 density is 2265 and everything else falls in place.

When I used this above logic and predicted some numbers using a 1800 density Spec and others pointed out that 1800 is a little low and now they are vindicated, 2265 seems about right and no better proof than the inventory data.

Now the effective density may be 2265*0.95 since 5% cases may have issues. so 2150 is effective 2007 density and 2150*0.83 = 1785 is the 2008 effective density.

Now similarly, 65% of 2007 from April 15 to Oct 30, 2007 (X) + 50% (2 months of X) + 50% of (2.5 months of 0.83X) + 12% of (3.5 months of 0.83X) + 9% of (6 months of 0.83X) + the 8K pending inventory have been cleared.

That is 7.05 months at 2007 density + 8K approved so far. = 7.05*2265+8000 = 23968 visas. I believe that so far USCIS has issued 23968 visas to EB2I-C this year and that falls pretty much in the middle of the 20-25K range of Sofad predicted by this forum long back.

Cheers and have a great weekend.

[ksur23]

Murali,

That sounds great. Extending your analysis how many EB2 I-Cs are without visas in 2007 and 2008? And going by the density calculated and SOFAD expected when (which months in FY2013 or 14) do you see the end of 2008 and end of 2009?

Appreciate the analysis work!

[vizcard]

Murali - very logical calculation. I will point out though that 2008 density is approx 2100 for EB2IC based on inventory data. I'm posting from my iPad right now so I don't have the excel file handy but IIRC, India was just shy of 2000 itself.

[abcx13]

Guys,

Overall if we assume that, 2008 pd's have been given 6K visas (thats the centrist numbers between the 5K and the 7K). If we look at the inventory, it has 6K pending cases before 2008. If the 2008 pd's were not issued visas, then dates would have reached 01-Jan-2008 approx. Isn't this what the gurus on this forum always predicted. So imho, the inventory data shows nothing alarming, nor is the porting at unexpected levels. In fact i believe that the numbers in the above lines support what Q, Spec, Teddy and others have always predicted, that FY 2012 will end around 1st week of Jan or last week of Dec 2007. I guess we are just carried away by sweeping events and sweeping statements from Mr. CO.

As far as the inventory data is concerned, I had posted a slightly different type of calculation some time back. If we go along same lines again,

I am not discounting the 5% for tough cases here, because inventory will have everyone.

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, 35% remain in the system).
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, 88% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, 91% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2009 - Dec 30, 2009 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2010 - Apr 30, 2010 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)

Now if we take 2007 to be the base year, lets say X applications per month. Based on trackitt, I would say 2008 is 0.84X applications per month. 2009 is 0.55X per month. 2010 is 0.6X.

In fact I used this 0.55X for 2009 from trackitt just based total registered trackitt users by year. Now if you look at the inventory released and add 6K to the 2008 inventory (already approved 6K cases), it comes to approx 15.1 (india) + 3.3 (China) + the 6K = 23.4. Lets say 0.84X=23.4K, it gives 0.55X = approx 15.3K and the inventory has approx 16K for EB2I-C for the year 2009. So trackitt seems to be doing ok in terms of ratios.

So now going back to pending inventory, we have

35% of 6.5 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 88% of 3.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 91% of 6 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 100% of 2009 (0.55X) + 100% of 4 months of 2010 ( 0.6X)

= approx 20.5 months of inventory on a 2007 scale density. The inventory for EB2I-C from April 2007 to April 2010 is 46431 (I omitted the inventory prior to that)

This means 20.5 months of 2007 = 46431, which means 2007 density is 2265 and everything else falls in place.

When I used this above logic and predicted some numbers using a 1800 density Spec and others pointed out that 1800 is a little low and now they are vindicated, 2265 seems about right and no better proof than the inventory data.

Now the effective density may be 2265*0.95 since 5% cases may have issues. so 2150 is effective 2007 density and 2150*0.83 = 1785 is the 2008 effective density.

Now similarly, 65% of 2007 from April 15 to Oct 30, 2007 (X) + 50% (2 months of X) + 50% of (2.5 months of 0.83X) + 12% of (3.5 months of 0.83X) + 9% of (6 months of 0.83X) + the 8K pending inventory have been cleared.

That is 7.05 months at 2007 density + 8K approved so far. = 7.05*2265+8000 = 23968 visas. I believe that so far USCIS has issued 23968 visas to EB2I-C this year and that falls pretty much in the middle of the 20-25K range of Sofad predicted by this forum long back.

Cheers and have a great weekend.

Just to clarify, when people here say SOFAD was 20k or something, they really mean that total no. of visas issued to EB2-IC were 20k right? Because SOFAD would actually be 20k-5.6k (quota for IC) = 14.4k, right?

[murali83]

Just to clarify, when people here say SOFAD was 20k or something, they really mean that total no. of visas issued to EB2-IC were 20k right? Because SOFAD would actually be 20k-5.6k (quota for IC) = 14.4k, right?

abcx,

I think you are right. Here when we mean sofad we are talking of the default 5.6+whatever we get from others.

[murali83]

Murali - very logical calculation. I will point out though that 2008 density is approx 2100 for EB2IC based on inventory data. I'm posting from my iPad right now so I don't have the excel file handy but IIRC, India was just shy of 2000 itself.

Vizcard,

Here is my reasoning. Though 6K visas could have been issued to 2008 folks, I still believe that the number is only 5K, not more than that. Except for the trackiit approx ratio factor, I have really not used 5 or 6K in my calculation.

So if you assume 5K visas have been given to 2008 folks, the inventory has 15136 for India and 3311 for China. So 2008 becomes 23447. That is 1953 per month. But when I had referred to effective density, I had derived it after a 5% deduction factor for difficult cases, so 1953 becomes 1856, which is really not very far from the 1785 I had calculated in my prior post.

Feel free to tear this logic apart.

Cheers

[vizcard]

It makes sense except for a couple of things. These are not "mistakes" but a matter of opinion.
1. The difficult cases are not necessarily rejects. So if you assume that they will be addressed at some later point, the 5% of 2008 would roll in to 2009 and 5% of2007 would roll in to 2008. I do think you can calculate the % of rejects based on data. I know Spec has it somewhere. I just can't find it.
2. Also you describe a term "effective density" which really is different from the basic density. I can't disagree with the definition of effective density and would have to include a factor in there.

[murali83]

It makes sense except for a couple of things. These are not "mistakes" but a matter of opinion.
1. The difficult cases are not necessarily rejects. So if you assume that they will be addressed at some later point, the 5% of 2008 would roll in to 2009 and 5% of2007 would roll in to 2008. I do think you can calculate the % of rejects based on data. I know Spec has it somewhere. I just can't find it.
2. Also you describe a term "effective density" which really is different from the basic density. I can't disagree with the definition of effective density and would have to include a factor in there.

Vizcard

Same here, I am unable to find the stats for that. But even assuming something low of 2.5% rejection rate, I really doubt if 2008 has a effective density higher than 1900. It is probably 2000 in the 1st six months and 1800 afterwards.

I guess we may have some minor variations in our numbers, but overall we are pretty much in agreement. So here is my summary

FY 2012: EB2I-C got approx 24000 visas (includes 5.6K default + Excess from other categories).

Prior to 2008 we have 6K pending cases.
1-Jan-2008 to 30-Jun-2008, we have 6 months worth cases @ 2000 per month minus the 3.5K (of the 5k in 2008 who have been approved) = 8.5
1-July-2008 to 31-Dec-2008, we have 6 months worth cases @ 1800 per month (minus 1.5k visas given to 2nd half of 2008)= 9.3k visas.

So to clear entire 2008 in FY2013, we need 23.8K visas (from inventory data it is 24.3k, accounting for 2.5% rejection rate, it is approx 23.8k) which is almost the visas that were provided in FY 2012. Considering the fact that EB2-Row might have a cut-off date, leading to accumulation of cases going forward in 2013, I really doubt if we can get the same sofad next year, unless eb1 yields some more next year (which is possible since they dont have such a big backlog going into 2013 like they had in 2012). But conservatively I guess sofad for 2013 will be in around 18-20K. They will lead Fy2013 to clear cases until Sep 30, 2008.

In fact, on a personal note, I am not even sure about this because 2012 was not even supposed to yield 24K visas. I guess they crossed red lines. I am not sure how we can ever find out. So I dont even have full belief about my projections for 2013, that is based on 18-20K sofad. It might even be lesser.

feel free to boost eb2=ic's morale if my calcs are way too pessimistic

[dec2007]

Friends, i got RFE on may 4th. Attorney is replying back. My amended 140 was approved in april.

Since i got the rfe, they r workng on my case. Does it mean i was assigned visa number and once we respnd rfe, i will get gc?

Pls see my details in signature. Thanks for a response.

[gcprp2]

Based on latest I485 Inventory (and also based few past I485 inventory) It looks like China has very very low demand compared to India for EB2 GCs, however still both countries has same cut of dates.??
If we see DHS(Department of homeland security) year book then, India is getting double employment based GCs compared to China, then why I-485 inventory of china is very low compared to India. As per below number China's inventory should be 50% compared to India but that's not the case. Inventory and actual GCs which are issued has huge difference for China, how much inventory is correct? Following are the number of GCs issues to India and China in last 10 year, which includes all priority (i.e EB1,EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5). Does anyone has such number by priority for India? I took this number from DHS year book

Region and country of birth / Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Employment based preferences - India 39,010 42,885 20,560 38,443 47,705 17,169 28,703 25,577 20,264 31,118 311,434
Employment based preferences - China, People’s Republic 22,361 20,713 7,511 15,583 20,626 9,484 13,886 15,329 11,295 17,949 154,737

[evoori]

Based on latest I485 Inventory (and also based few past I485 inventory) It looks like China has very very low demand compared to India for EB2 GCs, however still both countries has same cut of dates.??
If we see DHS(Department of homeland security) year book then, India is getting double employment based GCs compared to China, then why I-485 inventory of china is very low compared to India. As per below number China's inventory should be 50% compared to India but that's not the case. Inventory and actual GCs which are issued has huge difference for China, how much inventory is correct? Following are the number of GCs issues to India and China in last 10 year, which includes all priority (i.e EB1,EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5). Does anyone has such number by priority for India? I took this number from DHS year book

Region and country of birth / Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Employment based preferences - India 39,010 42,885 20,560 38,443 47,705 17,169 28,703 25,577 20,264 31,118 311,434
Employment based preferences - China, People’s Republic 22,361 20,713 7,511 15,583 20,626 9,484 13,886 15,329 11,295 17,949 154,737

I have similar question, the total pending EB3-C is 2400. Does it mean it will be current (or cross July 2007 mark) in next 1 year ?

[qesehmk]

I would think so Dec2007. Hope for the best

Friends, i got RFE on may 4th. Attorney is replying back. My amended 140 was approved in april.

Since i got the rfe, they r workng on my case. Does it mean i was assigned visa number and once we respnd rfe, i will get gc?

Pls see my details in signature. Thanks for a response.

Based on latest I485 Inventory (and also based few past I485 inventory) It looks like China has very very low demand compared to India for EB2 GCs, however still both countries has same cut of dates.??
If we see DHS(Department of homeland security) year book then, India is getting double employment based GCs compared to China, then why I-485 inventory of china is very low compared to India. As per below number China's inventory should be 50% compared to India but that's not the case. Inventory and actual GCs which are issued has huge difference for China, how much inventory is correct? Following are the number of GCs issues to India and China in last 10 year, which includes all priority (i.e EB1,EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5). Does anyone has such number by priority for India? I took this number from DHS year book

Region and country of birth / Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Employment based preferences - India 39,010 42,885 20,560 38,443 47,705 17,169 28,703 25,577 20,264 31,118 311,434
Employment based preferences - China, People’s Republic 22,361 20,713 7,511 15,583 20,626 9,484 13,886 15,329 11,295 17,949 154,737

I have similar question, the total pending EB3-C is 2400. Does it mean it will be current (or cross July 2007 mark) in next 1 year ?

evoori and gcgrp - EB2C indeed has real low demand. However unfortunately they are still at that threshold where they will continue to have cutoff date. But if their demand drops below 2800 per year, they will become part of ROWEB2. I hope it does sometime soon. Otherwise EB2C's fate is tied to EB2I unfortunately.