Good God Almighty! Just yesterday I was cribbing about the slow release of info from USCIS - and here comes the inventory! Awesome. Thanks Mesan.
Originally Posted by mesan123
Good God Almighty! Just yesterday I was cribbing about the slow release of info from USCIS - and here comes the inventory! Awesome. Thanks Mesan.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
God Almighty!
EB2IC inventory is 39,577 + 8337 = 47,914!!!!
That is a HUGE number!
Teddy, you are not right in your estimate of 25K.
Sun, look at the 2009 number, its exact as you predicted!!!! God, the porting is at your speed.
Let's hope that these numbers are more or less final and won't be revised upwards.
Really, I'm not sure if the 08 numbers are that bad. If you look at the I485 data, there's about 18.5k pending I485s for that year. Maybe another 4-5k have already been greened. That's 22.5k over 27.7k PERMs. Assuming a normal OR is 1 (TR = 1, DD = 0), this reflects demand destruction of (1 - 22.5/27.7) = ~20%. I think we were guessing 25% DD so we're not that far off.
I think the DD numbers are slightly higher for 2009 - closer to our 25% estimate.
At this point, China is only being held up by India and would have become current really soon if India didn't eat all the spillover. I'm not sure if Indians have been particularly rapacious with loopholes in filing fradulent/enevelope pushing labor certs, but we really get f**ked with this immigration system. Somehow I get the feeling that part of the blame lies with us for the Indian mentality of loving America and everybody and their mother wanting to come here. I'm not trying to be racist against my own people, but it's true that we love America more than others - I remember this Economist survey where after the Iraq and Afghan wars, Bush had a really high popularity rating in India even though his numbers had really dropped in other countries. I know India will send a larger number of immgrants than Luxembourg on account of the pop size, but China isn't flooding the system with a larger population so I wonder why India is so special...
Gurus,
One question. Does this pending inventory include both pre-adjudicated and non pre adjudicated cases or just the ones that are not pre adjudicated.
Thanks
Murali
Pretty sure both.
Update: The calculations below are wrong - I am using EB2IC PERM numbers and only EB2I 485s. Once I update the numbers, the OR for 2009 turns out to be 0.89 - and considering that this is the lower bound, we may have very little to no demand destruction in 2009. :-(
First attack at OR numbers using 2009 PERM and Inventory numbers for EB2I. Using monthly numbers, it does seem like a ratio of 0.71 for 2009 holds - all monthly values are close to that (range of 0.63 to 0.80).
Caveat - this is the lower bound. 2008 PD folks who have not applied yet will increase this number as they get into the queue. Still - we finally have some solid numbers to get a hold of the extent of demand destruction.
Mon I485 - PERM -- OR
Jan 1,301 2,073 0.63
Feb 1,260 1,771 0.71
Mar 1,384 1,801 0.77
Apr 1,207 1,846 0.65
May 1,042 1,457 0.72
Jun 1,069 1,468 0.73
Jul 0,984 1,290 0.76
Aug 0,801 1,247 0.64
Sep 1,058 1,492 0.71
Oct 1,143 1,502 0.76
Nov 0,993 1,360 0.73
Dec 1,187 1,482 0.80
Tot 13,429 18,789 0.71
Last edited by imdeng; 05-09-2012 at 01:37 PM.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I just realized it's actually worse than that because your PERM numbers are IC but the I485 numbers are I only. I made the same mistake earlier. So DD is nowhere close to 25%. Closer to 15%.
June 2012 Visa Bulletin:
Just now called 202 663 1541 : EB2 I&C - Unavailable.
Last edited by Mavrick; 05-09-2012 at 01:05 PM.
Overall I don't think the inventory numbers are too alarming. Only thing that stands out is the remaining overhang in 2007 of 4.9K - that is way above expectation. 2008 numbers are below expectations (less than 1.5K/month density we were expecting) and so are 2009 numbers (a couple months are less than 1K/month - that had not happened in a long while).
Based on this, we can reasonably expect FY2013 to take care of all 2007 and most of 2008 cases. FY2014 will then hit any leftover 2008, 2009 and 2010 till Apr - prompting a fresh intake in late FY2014.
EB2C will not be eating any spillover going forward since its regular-quota-movement will be more than enough to cover any potential spillover-fueled-movement of EB2I.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Just taking a swing at 2008 density calculations here (IC). Something doesn't seem right. Gurus - please correct me here.
2008 demand = 9375 (approved pending visa)
2008 inventory = 18447 (still in pre-decision phases)
Already greened ~5000 (already approved)
Total 485s = 32822
per month = 32822/12 = 2735.
For India only Total 485s = 26686
per month = 2224
Last edited by vizcard; 05-09-2012 at 01:10 PM. Reason: added India numbers
Inventory includes demand so you are double counting. Subtract that out and density is 1953/month. I think imdeng's 1.5k/month is off because he was ignoring already greened numbers.
Imdeng,
Just a couple of things. We have always talked of density in eb2 i-c terms. In 2008 assuming 50% approval on jan to mar 15 and 11% for the rest of the year, they have approx 9.87 months of unapproved inventory. Eb2i-c Unapproved in 2008 is 18447. Divide that by 9.87 and you will get 1870 per month. Similarly 2009 will give you 1300 ( 16342/12 full months of unapproved apps).
Inventory includes the demand. So the total is 18447 + 5000 = 23447
23447/12 = 1953 per month
Vizcard, I think inventory includes demand data, so you are double counting demand data here
the demand destruction for 2008 is huge, looking at the inventory numbers 2009 is almost on par with 2008. I know we have seen reasonable amount of approvals from 2008 but it's not looking like 2007 at all. (The perm numbers for 2007 and 2008 are almost same, Veni where are you buddy? please shed some light)
Well then that explains it. Still 2K/month is fairly significant.
PS: its stupid that they have the same number included in two metrics. They really need to think in terms of venn diagrams
The inventory is really scary. I guess it would take years to clear. EB2 has become the new EB3!! Time for AC 21
You are right. I re-did the numbers and the new OR is 0.89 for the year :-(
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Not sure why you say that, I think the wait is still on the order of 4-5 years. Correction though: EB2-I has become the new EB3. Everybody else is doing just fine...poor China will never become current because of India.
Gurus,
Is there any way to find out if a case has been pre-adjudicated and added to the demand?
Cheers
Murali
On trackitt there are 2500 cases for EB2I since Oct VB according to Spec's data. So trackitt's load factor is still 5 to 6% and not higher as we thought it might be.
In light of inventory data, CO's comments make no sense. How can he move dates back to 2010 when he will have 30k pre-adjudicated cases waiting for visa number by October.
PD: 08/25/2008 EB2I
EB1 march inventory made hit the panic button. EB1 data is kind of strange, when we see last year OCT 2011 data, for Aug 2011 the number is 588, in may 2012 for Aug 2011 it is 769. Not sure why the number increased after 6 months, when the number should had decreased.
This raises another question are these numbers are 100% or not?
There is an xls file here updated May 3 2012,
what inventory is this. This is USCIS so is it all applicants(primary and dependents).
the demand data if i m not wrong has only primary numbers correct?
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Look at the tab for india.
Service Center: NSC || PD: 3/13/08 || RD: 12/21/11 || ND: 12/23/11 (RIH: 1/4/12) || FP: 2/16(Notice 1/20) || EAD/AP: 02/08 || I-485: CPO email 3/9 GC in hand 3/15/12(check PD
Refer to FAQs on Post AOS/485 Filing here at post#1
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