EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[bvsamrat]

Whateever may be the reason, the PD should atleast reach back to the 2010 by next April(if not before). Then it would be free for all and lucky ones will GC. All 30K may not!.Just be ready for this.(I never said all 2009 filers, Which would never happen at any time).

Nothing unusual, just a cheap bourbon! I completely agree with what you are saying, and I wish if I had a device with which I could peek into my lawyer's mind and understand why he said whatever he said.

Cleaning out all the 2009 filers is indeed very difficult by April 2013. Also, someone mentioned that because of 90 day processing times, people will start applying in January 2013 itself (of course the USCIS has a choice to *either* send the GC *or* send the EAD renewal, so they might simply choose one or the other). However one of the themes seems to be that CO may not be afraid of using aggressive QSP and clear as many applications as possible *up front* in FY 2013 rather than wait until July. There is a very powerful motive for doing so. This may represent only a portion of the 2009 filers when all said and done, and the remaining...yes, they will have to renew those EADs.

I guess when my lawyer mentioned that he advises the company not to renew the H1Bs, the company will automatically send EAD renewal applications for those whose H1B will expire meanwhile. Perhaps he is bluffing when he says that he expects most people with EADs to get their GCs within 1 year. The real reason could be that my company is cheap and simply wants to save H1B renewal fee, since EAD can be renewed for free.

[murali83]

Whateever may be the reason, the PD should atleast reach back to the 2010 by next April(if not before). Then it would be free for all and lucky ones will GC. All 30K may not!.Just be ready for this.(I never said all 2009 filers, Which would never happen at any time).

Lets wait and watch. USCIS has all the data they need to know by now. It is just supply and demand. If they feel that they will have 25-30K visas to provide EB2I-C in Fy 2013, they will move the dates from Aug 2007 to where ever the line hits 25K pre-adjudicated visas which might be well within 2008 or into 2009. So I will conclusively say that in FY 2013 they have no need to generate more demand and collect applications. So there is absolutely no reason to move dates to 2010. There is one possibility though it is remote.

Let us say that in 2007 there are just 3K filers in the system (instead of the 5K we are assuming and the 3K are cleared in fy 2012 itself through some miraculous last minute fall down from Eb1) then We will have 0 pending inventory for pd's prior to 2008. In 2008, best case lets say (2.5 months, 50% cleared and the remaining 9.5 months, 20% cleared = around 3.2 months cleared). So we still have 8.8 months to clear in 2008. Even optimistically that is 1500*8.8 = 13200 visas needed (please keep in mind we have no indications of 1500, it is very optimistic). 2009 considered to the lean year, let us say has 12 months of 1200 = 14400 visas. So to clear both 2008 and 2009 they would need close to 28000 or even 30000 accounting for some added porting. So that is the best case scene. Now in this case, if this is what CO has on his table, he would feel that USCIS might not have enough applications for FY 2014. So he may advance dates beyond April 2010 towards the end of fy 2013 or he can do that even early fy 2014. There is absolutely no reason for him to take applications with pd's beyond April 2010 in early fy 2013 and completely issue gc's at random and then again regress dates. They did not do that in the 2007 fiasco and there is no reason for them to repeat that.

[mbasense]

And whats your reasoning for EB2IC not getting 25K SOFAD for FY2013. I dont think its impossible number for FY2013.

I always wonder why we take CO's action with its face value. I dont think they were shocked or anything. They wanted demand generated aggessively and hence the movement. Next year requirement may be different so they may pace the move accordingly but dates reaching Mar 15, 2008 by Feb 2013 is too conservative, IMO.

Sun, I agree with you. It is the combination of demand and spillover which is going to determine FY2013. CO is quite confident to move the dates back to May'10 at some point in FY 2013 denotes he must have analysed the pattern of incoming demand. He has a very solid figure in hand and that figure is manageable too. as sports said, he knows the tactics of balancing the other categories very well.

Something is going to happen starting Oct'12, We'll wait and watch.

Completely agree with kanmani and suninphx. even in the last bulletin, it was mentioned that the PD will go back to May 10 at some point in FY 13. Knowing CO and his recent predictions, surely he has some plans in place.

[murali83]

I agree with the processing time lag, but NOT with the logic that *only* March 2008 would be cleared by next April. This is assuming the worst case scenario of absolutely no spillover and 4 months of unavailability and minimal to no QSP next FY. Yes, it could happen, but there are good reasons for the USCIS/DOS not to let it happen. The whole pre-adjudication - EAD renewal - asking for the EVL again - keeping those files safe in a lock box - sending the GC when number is available cycle is vicious and triplicates the work done by the USCIS per case. Unless they get some revenue for all this trouble (circa pre-July 2007 applicants), there is no motivation for them to do so.

What are some of the more exotic things they can conjure up? I don't know. Some possibilities: a) Delaying cases with RFEs and controlling the demand generated as time progresses, b) Generating volatility in VBs - make it 'U' one bulletin and 'C' the next as an extreme example, the point being, while it is 'C', they send out approved GCs and while it is 'U', they stop the flood gates, c) approving as many cases as possible *up front* using aggressive QSP and following it with long stretches of 'U' bulletins, d) increasing the processing times for other categories and creating a large spillover for EB2-IC in 2013 (circa 2011), e) stop pre-adjudicating the current applications all together to not generate additional demand (seems like they are not doing this, but I still hold this as one of my pet theories) etc. They may have more arsenal that we are not aware of.

I can see that we don't have data, good information and it seems to be purposefully hidden from us. Are we going to see demand data with good numbers this time? It's anyone's guess. My guess is no. Either we don't see the demand data report, or we continue seeing the same meaningless numbers as we did in previous VBs.

Sportsfan,

I am not sure if they have to conjure up so much. My fundamental issue is that, just because CO released a statement about moving dates to April 2010 asap, it does not mean he has to do it in 2013. Why don't we just look at it in a very simple manner. Just look at what they did after july 2007. They have pre-adjudicated app's with them, they know what is the approx supply they will have. My simple guess is they will move dates slow and steady without any upheaval.

Sample:
Oct 2012 - Jan 1, 2008
Nov 2012 - Mar 15, 2008
Dec 2012 - Mar 15, 2008
Jan 2013 - April 30, 2008
Feb 2013 - June 30, 2008
Mar 2013 - June 30, 2008
April 2013 - Aug 30, 2008
May 2013 - Aug 30, 2008
June 2013 - Aug 30, 2008
July 2013 - Oct 30, 2008
Sep and Oct 2013 - Movement based on left over visas if any.

At this stage he takes a stock what the possible visa availabilty for 2014 is and sees the pending inventory is and decides if dates need to be advanced to allow filing of additional 485's or not.

[suninphx]

Completely agree with kanmani and suninphx. even in the last bulletin, it was mentioned that the PD will go back to May 10 at some point in FY 13. Knowing CO and his recent predictions, surely he has some plans in place.

I would like to take that statement from CO with pinch (or bunch ? ) of salt. But it has lot of directional importance. Specially when it comes from a person who has most definative data points.

[murali83]

My guess is since it was july an the next fy started immediately they had to do that. But now they have almost 2 full quarters to do all the pre-adjudication and stabilize things.

[Kanmani]

There is a uscis memorandum effective from Jan 2011 which says "Employment-based cases where a visa number is not immediately available at the time of
adjudication must be transferred to the Texas Service Center" The application must be pre-adjudicated before sending to TSC

So keeping IC applications aside is ruled out .

Back to demand analysis, Co himself had expressed in a way that USCIS sofar received only 50% of what they expected to receive and the remaining people cannot apply at this time after retrogression .


So why can't we take this statement with a pinch of sugar for a change ?

[suninphx]

There is a uscis memorandum effective from Jan 2011 which says "Employment-based cases where a visa number is not immediately available at the time of
adjudication must be transferred to the Texas Service Center" The application must be pre-adjudicated before sending to TSC

So keeping IC applications aside is ruled out .

Back to demand analysis, Co himself had expressed in a way that USCIS sofar received only 50% of what they expected to receive and the remaining people cannot apply at this time after retrogression .


So why can't we take this statement with a pinch of sugar for a change ?

Only problem is we dont know what their expectation was! Or that statement could be more towards defending the aggreessive move.

[Kanmani]

Demand Data is out

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[kd2008]

I don't know why the thread was closed ..but I opened it!

EB2 Demand data:

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2008 500 2,600 0 3,100
January 1, 2009 2,325 10,150 0 12,475
January 1, 2010 2,925 12,525 0 15,450
January 1, 2012 2,950 12,650 150 15,750

So at first cut, there are 15,600 EB2IC pre-adjudicated. This number will probably triple by the end of this fiscal year. I wish it restricts itself to just doubling itself, and not more :-)

[asankaran]

Thanks Kanmani. Very useful piece of information!!

Sweet!


Thanks Kanmani!

[abcx13]

I don't know why the thread was closed ..but I opened it!

EB2 Demand data:

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2008 500 2,600 0 3,100
January 1, 2009 2,325 10,150 0 12,475
January 1, 2010 2,925 12,525 0 15,450
January 1, 2012 2,950 12,650 150 15,750

I don't really know how to interpret demand data but this means that there were at least 12.5k "documentarily qualified" cases between July 2007 and March 2008. Since Dec. bulletin had only been in force for a month, there were probably some pre-March 08 cases that had not been filed yet and ones that USCIS had not considered yet. This gives a density of 1785/month, to which you should add your estimate of cases which were not documentarily qualified or had not been considered by USCIS.

Am I thinking about this the right way? It would have been more helpful if they had given us demand/qualified cases till April 2012 or something. Looking forward to I485 inventory now.

[kd2008]

I don't really know how to interpret demand data but this means that there were at least 12.5k "documentarily qualified" cases between July 2007 and March 2008. Since Dec. bulletin had only been in force for a month, there were probably some pre-March 08 cases that had not been filed yet and ones that USCIS had not considered yet. This gives a density of 1785/month, to which you should add your estimate of cases which were not documentarily qualified or had not been considered by USCIS.

Am I thinking about this the right way? It would have been more helpful if they had given us demand/qualified cases till April 2012 or something. Looking forward to I485 inventory now.

This has nothing to do with March 2008 and VB bulletin cutoff in the past. USCIS does not pre-adjudicate cases in FIFO.

The Jan 2012 is the PD & not the date of application. I think that is where you are wrong.

[abcx13]

This has nothing to do with March 2008 and VB bulletin cutoff in the past. USCIS does not pre-adjudicate cases in FIFO.

Not sure I understand. If the pipeline at the beginning of the FY was mostly empty, then the only additions can be old unqualified cases becoming qualified or new cases being pre-adjudicated/"qualified". Since the pipeline was empty, doesn't that mean that most of this demand was from cases submitted before the Jan visa bulletin being adjudicated or qualified and consular cases?

An explanation would be appreciated since the demand date is one of those things I don't quite understand!

Thanks

[la_2002_ch]

Not sure I understand. If the pipeline at the beginning of the FY was mostly empty, then the only additions can be old unqualified cases becoming qualified or new cases being pre-adjudicated/"qualified". Since the pipeline was empty, doesn't that mean that most of this demand was from cases submitted before the Jan visa bulletin being adjudicated or qualified and consular cases?

An explanation would be appreciated since the demand date is one of those things I don't quite understand!

Thanks

These numbers indicate that these many applications are processed and ready to be issued a GC, but rhe VISA number is not available. What it means is that since Mar 23rd 2012, when they stopped issuing GCs (Internal retrogress) these many applications for Jul2007 - Dec 31 2008 (in referrence to your 12.5K figure) are pending.

[abcx13]

These numbers indicate that these many applications are processed and ready to be issued a GC, but rhe VISA number is not available. What it means is that since Mar 23rd 2012, when they stopped issuing GCs (Internal retrogress) these many applications for Jul2007 - Dec 31 2008 (in referrence to your 12.5K figure) are pending.

Gotcha, thanks - so these are pending applications! Not no. of qualified cases before Jan 2012 that were approved in between Jan 2012 and now. That makes a lot more sense. I'm so stupid, I was thinking it was the other way round.

Though I'm still slightly confused about why this would be all the pending cases from Jul 2007 - Dec 2008. Why not till March 2008 since that was the date of the Dec bulletin and they couldn't possibly know Jan visa bulletin demand until after Jan?

One more question: when they say cumulative demand prior to date xyz, does that cumulative demand prior to CO date of bulletin of that month? Or does it mean qualified applications received up to Jan 1, 2012? If the latter, that would mean there are still some qualified pending applications that are possibly with pre-March 2008 dates that they are not counting in this data, right?

[kd2008]

Gotcha, thanks - so these are pending applications! Not no. of qualified cases before Jan 2012 that were approved in between Jan 2012 and now. That makes a lot more sense. I'm so stupid, I was thinking it was the other way round.

Though I'm still slightly confused about why this would be all the pending cases from Jul 2007 - Dec 2008. Why not till March 2008 since that was the date of the Dec bulletin and they couldn't possibly know Jan visa bulletin demand until after Jan?

One more question: when they say cumulative demand prior to date xyz, does that cumulative demand prior to CO date of bulletin of that month? Or does it mean qualified applications received up to Jan 1, 2012? If the latter, that would mean there are still some qualified pending applications that are possibly with pre-March 2008 dates that they are not counting in this data, right?

I edited my post earlier to explain your doubt away. "1 Jan 2012" refers to the PD and not the received date of the application. Like wise for 1 Jan 2008 etc.

So upto PD of 1 Jan 2008 there are 3100 pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa numbers to be available. So on and so forth.

PS: I have deleted posts that informed that the demand data has been released as these were duplicate.

[devi_pd]

I am hoping a big chuck of the 2008 PDs are in this demand data because some 2009 PDs(around 2K) also have been preadjudicated. If we assume 70% of 2008 PDs are already here, the total 2008 EB2IC demand would be 9375+3k = 12,375 which is not that bad. We should easily get to the end of 2008 by FY2013.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I edited my post earlier to explain your doubt away. "1 Jan 2012" refers to the PD and not the received date of the application. Like wise for 1 Jan 2008 etc.

So upto PD of 1 Jan 2008 there are 3100 pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa numbers to be available. So on and so forth.

PS: I have deleted posts that informed that the demand data has been released as these were duplicate.

Thanks kd for the explanation. May be this is a dumb question but does it tell us anything about the nature of demand, high or low or should we wait for I-485 inventory to get a better picture of the situation?

[la_2002_ch]

I am hoping a big chuck of the 2008 PDs are in this demand data because some 2009 PDs(around 2K) also have been preadjudicated. If we assume 70% of 2008 PDs are already here, the total 2008 EB2IC demand would be 9375+3k = 12,375 which is not that bad. We should easily get to the end of 2008 by FY2013.

I maybe wrong, but based on this data, IMO, the toal DD for Jul 2007-Dec 2008 would/should be around 15K (12.5K already in system, 2.5K additional for people like me who are yet to be pre-adjudicated, who filed late i.e. in Feb-Mar Bulletins, etc.). My estimate doesnt include any Porting cases.

[abcx13]

I edited my post earlier to explain your doubt away. "1 Jan 2012" refers to the PD and not the received date of the application. Like wise for 1 Jan 2008 etc.

So upto PD of 1 Jan 2008 there are 3100 pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa numbers to be available. So on and so forth.

PS: I have deleted posts that informed that the demand data has been released as these were duplicate.

I see - makes sense. I also re-read Spec's explanation here and think I understand it a lot better now. I was also making the mistake of not adding EB2I and EB2C together.

These are pretty low numbers I think and if USCIS has finished pre-adjudicating all the 2008 cases, then we're looking at 12.5k remaining cases before the end of 2008. Obviously not all 2009 cases have been pre-adjudicated (there can't be only ~3000!). But let's hope this demand data has the majority of 2008 and 2007 cases. I guess next demand data and the I485 inventory at the end of the month will tell the full story as to how many remaining un-adjudicated 2008 cases there might be. If the number of cases with 2008 PDs does not go up, we should indeed get well into 2009 in FY2013 (we would only need 7k SOFAD).

Am I putting too much faith in the I485 inventory by saying that it would be the absolute upper bound for pre-2009 cases?

[murali83]

I edited my post earlier to explain your doubt away. "1 Jan 2012" refers to the PD and not the received date of the application. Like wise for 1 Jan 2008 etc.

So upto PD of 1 Jan 2008 there are 3100 pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa numbers to be available. So on and so forth.

PS: I have deleted posts that informed that the demand data has been released as these were duplicate.

kd2008,

Do you think the numbers prior to 2008 will go up significantly. I mean I am hoping at least 80% of the pending inventory prior to 2007 is pre-adjudicated and has shown up in the numbers. So I assume worst case 4000 should be the full number prior to 2008. Starting 2008, I guess we should wait for some time and see when they release the next data set.

[kd2008]

kd2008,

Do you think the numbers prior to 2008 will go up significantly. I mean I am hoping at least 80% of the pending inventory prior to 2007 is pre-adjudicated and has shown up in the numbers. So I assume worst case 4000 should be the full number prior to 2008. Starting 2008, I guess we should wait for some time and see when they release the next data set.

Short answer: Yes, most likely they will go up significantly.

Long answer: Technically, enough time has lapsed that USCIS should have finished pre-adjudicating all pre-2008 cases and the number shouldn't change much. But reality has always been otherwise - and I am saying this from following USCIS behavior for past 4 years.

These are numbers the DoS is seeing as requested by USCIS.

USCIS for all its efficiency improvements is an extremely tardy organization when it comes to being transparent with data and numbers. One has to take these numbers with a pinch of salt.

[imdeng]

Hmm... here are my first thoughts on EB2I numbers:
1. 2.6K (almost the entire year's regular quota) are still standing with 2007 PDs! This is higher than my expectations.
2. Only 7.5K with 2008 PDs. Even assuming that half of demand till Mar-15 2008 and 20% of the demand for the rest of 2008 has been issued a visa, this is still low. This includes Dec and Jan VB. Perhaps some part of Jan VB has not reached documentarily qualified status yet. Even though this number may increase somewhat in future, it is still low enough for us to be a little more optimistic about PD movement in FY2013. This would be the key number to follow in future DDs.
3. 2.5K with 2009 PD - this is understandably low as only a few of Feb VB would have reached documentarily qualified status. This number should increase significantly in coming months.


Demand Prior To -- China ---- India -- All Other -- Grand Total
January 1, 2008 ---- 500 ---- 2,600 ---- 0 -------- 3,100
January 1, 2009 ---- 2,325 -- 10,150 --- 0 -------- 12,475
January 1, 2010 ---- 2,925 -- 12,525 --- 0 -------- 15,450
January 1, 2012 ---- 2,950 -- 12,650 --- 150 -------15,750

[kd2008]

Thanks kd for the explanation. May be this is a dumb question but does it tell us anything about the nature of demand, high or low or should we wait for I-485 inventory to get a better picture of the situation?

Sorry, I missed your question. In my opinion is these are low numbers and they are low not because there were fewer applications files but because USCIS hasn't yet pre-adjudicated a large of applications.