EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[ThisSummer]

I-485 Applied on 11th Jan 2011
PD date: 24th Mar 08
Service Center: Nebraska

1) I think I can open an SR on 11th May, is my assumption correct?

2) Are there any advantages to opening a SR ?

Regards
Nat

Nat,

You may try calling customer service and find out when you will be eligible to do so. In our case L2 officer said we can not do so until 120 business days have passed.

When I asked her whether or not I can open SR when my date is not current, she said it is up to the CSR to decide at that point of time.

Hope this helps!

[mbasense]

I think that's reasonable. 2008 Q1 should be cleared in FY13Q1 but only in case that they continue to do quarterly spillover.

GC: Estimated Q2FY2014

imdeng : that estimate has to be a pessimistic one, right? even with all the analysis and number crunching, you think late 2009 PDs will have to wait till 2014? i was estimating some date a little earlier than that(sometime in FY 2013)

[murali83]

murali

the last i checked trackitt - it showed 30% of 2008 folks approved. 30% of 24K annual demand is approx 8K.

Hi Q

I shall double check and get back to you.

Thanks

Murali

[murali83]

GC: Estimated Q2FY2014

imdeng : that estimate has to be a pessimistic one, right? even with all the analysis and number crunching, you think late 2009 PDs will have to wait till 2014? i was estimating some date a little earlier than that(sometime in FY 2013)

Hi Mbasense,

I am sure imdeng will weigh in his perspective. But if you look through the last 3-4 pages of discussion, you will see that with all calculations and trackiit ratios, fy 2013 will have a hard time crossing pd's with 2008. It may get to early 2009 only if one of the following 2 or both happen

1. They still have some visas left to give to eb2i-c this fy 2012, at least a healthy number like 4-5k.

2. There is huge demand destruction in the later part of 2008, something that we have not been able to pass a judgement on so far.

Cheers

Murali

[mbasense]

So, that's a little bit of optimism for your Monday morning. Now let's sit back and enjoy. I can tell you though that life on the EAD is just as good, and our other friends who are waiting for the same opportunity most likely would not have to wait long.

Hi Mbasense,
I am sure imdeng will weigh in his perspective. But if you look through the last 3-4 pages of discussion, you will see that with all calculations and trackiit ratios, fy 2013 will have a hard time crossing pd's with 2008. It may get to early 2009 only if one of the following 2 or both happen

sportsfan33: thanks a lot for sharing. that was an aal is well post from you..even if it's not true, it will make our days a little easier

murali: thanks for your input. demand destruction is one factor, and my understanding seems to align with what sportsfan33 shared(it also personally suits me !!), i don't have the number crunching expertise like the gurus here, but just using trends, it seems like a lot of 2008 PDs have been cleared, and the number of 2009 PDs are way lower in number than 2008.

[vizcard]

I had a meeting with the company lawyer on Friday. Again, after thinking whether I should post its contents or not, I decided to post them anyway. Part of the reason is that our company will take some policy actions based upon his recommendations, and hence I think his information is relevant. There is absolutely no number crunching here, and some may interpret this as wild conjecture. So do not take this info as it is, and stick to what the Gurus predict here as usual.

- Present situation: All of the 2008 PDs in my company have been greened (except me because I sent in my application too late). No 2009 PD has received a GC in my company, the earliest application being received on 1st February itself. He said that's the general trend, and he thinks a "substantial portion" of 2008 PDs have received green cards. I asked him if that number was 30% (as per Q), and he said, it was "more than that".

- Future prediction: He was very confident I would receive my GC by the end of this year (or the beginning of the next at the earliest). He said that he has advised all of the 2009 PDs to expect their GCs before their EADs expire.

- Our company policy: He said that he has advised our company *NOT TO* renew anyone's H1B unless the circumstances were exceptional as he is very confident that within 1 year from now, everyone holding their EADs will have their GCs.

That's all I have from him. I tried to ask him a lot about the numbers and the recent moves by CO, but as usual, he declined to comment. One thing he said that the EB1 usage is not out of the ordinary, and the EB2 numbers will be managed in a way that minimizes the waiting period of the EAD beneficiaries, and that the *DOS has learned a great deal from the 2007 experiment and things will be much better engineered this time*.

My take: As before, I continue to believe that the USCIS would want to minimize renewing EAD/AP for free. As for my specific case, they approved my EAD on April 28th - hardly 4 weeks from the day it was received. Had they waited until May 1st, they could have given me a 2 year EAD (since my date would not be current). But surprisingly, they approved it right away, and I still don't have my FP notice. So unless they give me a green card before the April of next year, they will be forced to renew my application and send me a replacement card, which represents additional work for them.

I also did a lot of queries around my receipt number on the USCIS tracker, and I literally found about a hundred I765 cases that were approved on the same day. So the approval comes in batches. In fact, the "previous batch" was approved on April 25th. All these applications could easily be approved in May with a 2 year validity.

From my lawyer's words, it seems that the DOS/USCIS are not as chaotic as we think. That's the impression he has given to me. Who knows what they will do? Perhaps they will give out 20K visas at the beginning of the FY and make the category unavailable the rest of the year. They might not show any qualms about imposing a cut off date on ROW.

So, that's a little bit of optimism for your Monday morning. Now let's sit back and enjoy. I can tell you though that life on the EAD is just as good, and our other friends who are waiting for the same opportunity most likely would not have to wait long.

good info. What law firm does your company use ?

[murali83]

sportsfan33: thanks a lot for sharing. that was an aal is well post from you..even if it's not true, it will make our days a little easier

murali: thanks for your input. demand destruction is one factor, and my understanding seems to align with what sportsfan33 shared(it also personally suits me !!), i don't have the number crunching expertise like the gurus here, but just using trends, it seems like a lot of 2008 PDs have been cleared, and the number of 2009 PDs are way lower in number than 2008.

Mbasense,

I hope it all turns out like what sportsfan has described, but it would just make me sleep much better if the numbers support what the lawyer referenced says. Latest trackiit does not even tally with the 30% 2008 approval number.

My gut feeling is that Q had the 30% number for until maybe mid way of 2008, since 30% of cases from jan to june 2008 have been cleared though the approvals until march 15th are more like 45-50% and from then on to june like 12%.

For whatever it is worth, here is the latest i have from trackiit.

Eb2 india+china, jan 1 2008 to march 14 2008,

235 of 530 cases on trackiit approved.

march 15 to dec 31 2008

111 of the 1104 cases on trackiit approved.

But i have some good news.

Jan 2008 (india) eb2 filings: 219
Feb: 201
Mar: 165
Apr: 122
May: 128
June: 114
July: 91
Aug: 125
Sep: 93
Oct: 104
Nov: 102
Dec: 124

From jan to dec 2008 we have 1588 cases.
From jan to dec 2007 we have 1898 cases.

And in 2008 the most dense months seem to be in the 1st quarter, 45-50% of which has been cleared. So these numbers give me some hope of crossing 2008 in fy 2013.

Cheers

[Mavrick]

Sportsfan33,

I'm really happy to read your post(atleast it makes me feel better).

Here is my question - Do you really believe EB2-I with 2010 PD dates and who have EAD's right now might get GC's in next 1 year? Is it even possible?

[imdeng]

Lets see - we will end FY2012 at where we are right now or at most somewhere into first couple months of 2008. FY2013 will clear the rest of 2008 and then FY2014 will finally be able to deal with 2009 PDs. This is my logic for my expect GC time of Q2FY2014. I would have said Q42014 but 2009 is pretty sparse - so I guess Q2FY2014 is as good a guess as any at this point.

GC: Estimated Q2FY2014

imdeng : that estimate has to be a pessimistic one, right? even with all the analysis and number crunching, you think late 2009 PDs will have to wait till 2014? i was estimating some date a little earlier than that(sometime in FY 2013)

[imdeng]

Sports - the inability to see 485 online is only for TSC. NSC folks can see all their cases online without any difficulty. This has been so for several months now. Also - per-adjudication is surely happening since folks are getting RFEs (e.g. Kanmani got hers a week or so ago) - so the processing is happening on USCIS' side.

It is also noteworthy that none of the I485 cases can be tracked on the USCIS tracker, although we could track the I765 and I131 cases. The USCIS might be holding on to those cases to decide how to proceed.

The question on *pre-adjudication* will be answered soon, starting the demand data for this month. Subsequent months, we will know if that's what they are doing. If the DO this, then the dates will move slowly and we will surely have a mini 2007. Although this would make the FIFO camp happy.

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan, did you ask your attorney's opinion on pending/overall 'demand' ?

[Kanmani]

OK, I didn't know this. I thought none of us could see our cases online. Any idea how do the *real processing times* compare across TSC versus NSC?

As for me, there is a dead silence on my 485 case. I have 3 other friends in my company who submitted their cases in March, and none of us have received even a finger printing notice. That's what made me think that they have even stopped pre-adjudicating.

Sportsfan, as per trackitt trend TSC feb filers are started receiving RFEs . So the batch which is going through pre-adj should be with feb1-15 RD I guess.

[vishnu]

Thanks Sportsfan33 for sharing your attorney's views... the next pending inventory update and perhaps even demand data will provide great color

[imdeng]

For trackitt data parsing, I would refer all to the gold standard - Spec's analysis - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...tted-in-FY2012

Considering that not everyone updates their trackitt status once they receive their GC (and are no longer stressed/obsessed about it), lets assume a 75% reporting rate, that gives us the following approval ratios:

Oct VB: 82.91%
Nov VB: 76.37%
Dec VB: 61.80%
Jan VB: 14.55%

Conclusions:
1. 2007 mostly finished
2. 2008 up to March is more than half done
3. 2008 after March is less than a fifth done

Please note that 75% for reporting rate might still be quite conservative since people do take their own sweet time in updating trackitt.

I do agree that the Trackitt data show around 30% overall approval for EB2, and the number is definitely lower for March to December 2008. What we do not have is an *estimate*. For example, the Jan-March 2008 crowd got greened so fast that several people, who otherwise *might* have included their details did not do this. So we might be missing some otherwise significant number of people who would be seen on trackitt thus making the *dense months even denser*. Same is true for 2008 folks otherwise. It's true that trackitt shows around 10% approval, but again, from my company example, people received their GCs in an average time of 2.5 months, and a substantial number of "greened" people never showed up on trackitt.

My point being very fast processing might have introduced a bias (on the negative side) to gauge the approval percentage accurately.

In any case, as you point out, I believe > 50% approval has happened at the very least from July 2007 to March 2008 combined, which is still a good news.

[imdeng]

It might just be my frustration with NSC speaking, but TSC has been moving way faster than NSC for both finger printing and EAD issue and now RFE for pre-adj.

OK, I didn't know this. I thought none of us could see our cases online. Any idea how do the *real processing times* compare across TSC versus NSC?

As for me, there is a dead silence on my 485 case. I have 3 other friends in my company who submitted their cases in March, and none of us have received even a finger printing notice. That's what made me think that they have even stopped pre-adjudicating.

[imdeng]

Thoughts on EB2I density based on 485 submission data (from: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...tted-in-FY2012). This data will change in future but I am using the data as it stands today. I am going to scale the monthly EB2I density using the period July 15, 2007 to Oct 31, 2007 as reference point (=100).


----------------------------------------# of Submission--Submission/Month--% of Reference
Nov VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007: 529--------------151.14/m-----------100%
Dec VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008: 740--------------164.44/m-----------109%
Jan VB - PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008: 935--------------98.42/m------------65%
Feb VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009: 803--------------66.92/m------------44%


So, essentially, EB2I density in late 2007, early 2008 is a little higher than the reference period of Jul-15 to Oct-31 2007. However, the density reduces sharply to 65% of reference in late 2008 and only 44% of reference in 2009.

Please keep in mind that the figures are an UNDER-estimate for later VBs since folks there have not finished updating trackitt. Also, reference period might have been under-counted since a few there would have snuck in during 07/07.

[bvsamrat]

As commented earlier, I do not have calculations or Tarrot

But based past trend and gut feeling(I will not say common sense to offend others)

I tend to agree with sportfan

Before 2013 April most of the 2009 (may be a few 2010 filers) may get GCs(if found approvable and all RFE's cleared) and PD may progress atleast 3-6 months at that time(up to 2010 end by April 2013)

Reaons may be many - low 2009 cases/past history/too many audits/RFEs- economic situation/elections/and so on.

Thoughts on EB2I density based on 485 submission data (from: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...tted-in-FY2012). This data will change in future but I am using the data as it stands today. I am going to scale the monthly EB2I density using the period July 15, 2007 to Oct 31, 2007 as reference point (=100).


----------------------------------------# of Submission--Submission/Month--% of Reference
Nov VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007: 529--------------151.14/m-----------100%
Dec VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008: 740--------------164.44/m-----------109%
Jan VB - PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008: 935--------------98.42/m------------65%
Feb VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009: 803--------------66.92/m------------44%


So, essentially, EB2I density in late 2007, early 2008 is a little higher than the reference period of Jul-15 to Oct-31 2007. However, the density reduces sharply to 65% of reference in late 2008 and only 44% of reference in 2009.

Please keep in mind that the figures are an UNDER-estimate for later VBs since folks there have not finished updating trackitt. Also, reference period might have been under-counted since a few there would have snuck in during 07/07.

[vizcard]

As commented earlier, I do not have calculations or Tarrot

But based past trend and gut feeling(I will not say common sense to offend others)

I tend to agree with sportfan

Before 2013 April most of the 2009 (may be a few 2010 filers) may get GCs(if found approvable and all RFE's cleared) and PD may progress atleast 3-6 months at that time(up to 2010 end by April 2013)

Reaons may be many - low 2009 cases/past history/too many audits/RFEs- economic situation/elections/and so on.

bvsamrat - I'll have some of what u r smoking (or drinking)

Even if you take 1500/ month, you are still looking at 18K for 2008 PDs (we know its more). Even if by some miracle we get to the end of 2007 in FY12. We will need 35K in SOFAD in FY2013 (i.e. Sept 2013) to clear 2008 and 2009. Even if you say there are RFEs and stuff ON TOP OF the already low 1500/month, we will still need 25-30K or so to clear 2008 and 2009 by SEPT 2013.

So in short you are saying that we will have 25-30K visas available by April 2013 for EB2IC.... seriously, I'll have some of what ur having.

[GhostWriter]

sportsfan33, it would be hard for USCIS to prevent not renewing the EADs at least for 2009 PDs. Most of the Feb filers (2009 PDs) who received EADs in March or April will apply for renewal keeping in mind the 90-day processing time. Hence they will apply in Jan or Feb 2013. Given the numbers it does not seem likely that 2009 PDs will have GCs by Jan or Feb 2013 even with aggressive QSP in Oct-2012.

My take: As before, I continue to believe that the USCIS would want to minimize renewing EAD/AP for free.

[eb2visa]

As per the I485 inventory published in Jan, the 2008 Q1 inventory is high, but later it decreased a lot. I hope there were many approvals of 2008 and my take is they will clear 2009 by end of FY13. I will consider the statement posted in April Builletin

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...ry_Jan2012.pdf

[eb2visa]

Very much interesting numbers

Counting Pending Petitions at NVC, USCIS I-485 Inventory And I-140 Receipts

http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/ar...012-03-30.html

[murali83]

bvsamrat - I'll have some of what u r smoking (or drinking)

Even if you take 1500/ month, you are still looking at 18K for 2008 PDs (we know its more). Even if by some miracle we get to the end of 2007 in FY12. We will need 35K in SOFAD in FY2013 (i.e. Sept 2013) to clear 2008 and 2009. Even if you say there are RFEs and stuff ON TOP OF the already low 1500/month, we will still need 25-30K or so to clear 2008 and 2009 by SEPT 2013.

So in short you are saying that we will have 25-30K visas available by April 2013 for EB2IC.... seriously, I'll have some of what ur having.

I completely concur with vizcard

[murali83]

sportsfan33, it would be hard for USCIS to prevent not renewing the EADs at least for 2009 PDs. Most of the Feb filers (2009 PDs) who received EADs in March or April will apply for renewal keeping in mind the 90-day processing time. Hence they will apply in Jan or Feb 2013. Given the numbers it does not seem likely that 2009 PDs will have GCs by Jan or Feb 2013 even with aggressive QSP in Oct-2012.

You said exactly what I had in my mind, considering the shock mr CO has had with aggressive QSP this year (I am not saying he wont do QSP next year, but it will be more calibrated), by Feb 2013, we might just see zero backlog until March 15, 2008 at best. I just dont see 2009 being touched in Fy 2013, unless they have approved tons of 2008 pd's and we have no data for that until the demand data is released.

[suninphx]

bvsamrat - I'll have some of what u r smoking (or drinking)

Even if you take 1500/ month, you are still looking at 18K for 2008 PDs (we know its more). Even if by some miracle we get to the end of 2007 in FY12. We will need 35K in SOFAD in FY2013 (i.e. Sept 2013) to clear 2008 and 2009. Even if you say there are RFEs and stuff ON TOP OF the already low 1500/month, we will still need 25-30K or so to clear 2008 and 2009 by SEPT 2013.

So in short you are saying that we will have 25-30K visas available by April 2013 for EB2IC.... seriously, I'll have some of what ur having.

And whats your reasoning for EB2IC not getting 25K SOFAD for FY2013. I dont think its impossible number for FY2013.

You said exactly what I had in my mind, considering the shock mr CO has had with aggressive QSP this year (I am not saying he wont do QSP next year, but it will be more calibrated), by Feb 2013, we might just see zero backlog until March 15, 2008 at best. I just dont see 2009 being touched in Fy 2013, unless they have approved tons of 2008 pd's and we have no data for that until the demand data is released.

I always wonder why we take CO's action with its face value. I dont think they were shocked or anything. They wanted demand generated aggessively and hence the movement. Next year requirement may be different so they may pace the move accordingly but dates reaching Mar 15, 2008 by Feb 2013 is too conservative, IMO.

[Kanmani]

And whats your reasoning for EB2IC not getting 25K SOFAD for FY2013. I dont think its impossible number for FY2013.

I always wonder why we take CO's action with its face value. I dont think they were shocked or anything. They wanted demand generated aggessively and hence the movement. Next year requirement may be different so they may pace the move accordingly but dates reaching Mar 15, 2008 by Feb 2013 is too conservative, IMO.

Sun, I agree with you. It is the combination of demand and spillover which is going to determine FY2013. CO is quite confident to move the dates back to May'10 at some point in FY 2013 denotes he must have analysed the pattern of incoming demand. He has a very solid figure in hand and that figure is manageable too. as sports said, he knows the tactics of balancing the other categories very well.

Something is going to happen starting Oct'12, We'll wait and watch.