EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty, Thank you for the detailed description. Our lawyer is not returning our mails and it is a waste of time to wait for her advice. Since this is the 3rd call for the civil surgeon in the same issue, he wants to educate the USCIS, particularly the officer (number noted in the RFE). But one of our forum members 'Sirisha' received the same RFE and she managed to take the vaccines and send a fresh medical report to replace the old. I want to follow her path.

Thank you once again. I'll update the progress.

(I'll move this post later)

Lazy lawyers huhhhhh. So you are not the only one. My H1B extension and eventually PERM got delayed for 11 months just because of the lazy lawyer and her lazy paralegal. She filed my LCA under Bachelor's Degree instead of MD, put my date of birth wrong, my address wrong, my passport expiration dates wrong during my H1B extension. Finally, after 2 months of trying to contact her, she responded and I had to send new documents and had to upgrade my H1B to premium processing. When it came to file for PERM, she put wrong advertisements without letting the hospital know and later on had to withdraw. Hospital fired her and we have a new lawyer now but because of her and her paralegal's incompetency, my PD ended up being in Middle of May, 2011 instead of June, 2010.

Anyways, enough of my ranting. Good luck to you.

[vedu]

USCIS Dashboard has been updated for Jan, 12 and Feb, 12. It looks like there is a significant reduction in I-140 receipts as compared to Jan, 11 and Feb, 11.

[Spectator]

USCIS Dashboard has been updated for Jan, 12 and Feb, 12. It looks like there is a significant reduction in I-140 receipts as compared to Jan, 11 and Feb, 11.

vedu,

Thanks for the heads up.

I have been looking for over a month for that to happen.

[abcx13]

USCIS Dashboard has been updated for Jan, 12 and Feb, 12. It looks like there is a significant reduction in I-140 receipts as compared to Jan, 11 and Feb, 11.

Thanks...am I right in thinking that this doesn't have any predictive value?

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Over the weekend i updated the header. Basically I looked at trackitt trend, prior year approvals. What I found alarming is EB1 approval rate this year, consumption of EB2IC and EB2ROW steadfastness. Together those things mean only one thing for EB2IC - the dates will not go past 2007 during the remainder of 2012. I am sorry to say this - but I am fairly certain about this and would like to be proven wrong.

Anyway check out the header for the trackitt trend checker.

[murali83]

Thanks for your post Q. So if this is the harsh reality, let me take a potshot at what 2013 is going to look like (I am sure the demand data that will be released next month, or in a week will give us a lot of info).

There are essentially around 5K filers with PD prior to 01-Jan-2008 (as Teddy had also alluded to in one of his posts and also based on a calculation which is as follows).

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 30% remain in the system)
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 83% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 86% remain in the system)

Assuming that there is not much Demand Destruction until end of 2008 and EB2IC is pretty strong until then, lets go with 1800 a month including porting.

Until Dec 31, 2007

(6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45)*1800 = 5130 until the end of 2007 (kind of re-affirms the 5K filers in the system until Dec 31, 2007)

From Jan 1, 2008 to mid 2008 (lets say June 30, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83)*1800 = 7254

In entire 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86)*1800 = 16542

So, my guess is that when EB2IC gets its usual 5600 per year in oct 2012, the dates should cross in Jan 2008 barely or just about. After that approx 7-8K visas will be needed to clear cases until mid 2008 and approx 17000 visas will be needed to clear all 2008 cases.

So a dull year like 2012, if it repeats in 2013 and we get like 20K visas (the 20K includes our standard 5.6K visas per year), then we may end up at Nov 2008 since we need 5130+16542=21672 visas to clear out entire 2008.

So if we get 0 Sofad + 5.6K we will land at Dec 2007 by end of FY 2013
If we get 7 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at June 30, 2008
If we get 17 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at Dec 30, 2008

Cheers and Have a great Sunday

Murali

[red200]

what does a processing time of 8.1 months mean on the USCIS website? (at the same page where we can check the case status too).
does it mean that a person who applied the 485 on oct 1st 2011 , should be processed by jun 3rd 2012 ?


This seems to be different than the one posted on https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processi...lay.do(updated apr 23 2012)


my question is, can a applicant inquire his case status using the first one with uscis , instead of by a particular date, ie like Aug 11 2012 ?

[vizcard]

Murali - Seems logical given the assumptions. There is a lot of info that we should be getting in the next few weeks that'll help the analysis. Demand data ofcourse and then the next VB. If we DON'T go "U" for the rest of the year, then some of that April 2007 - Aug 2007 demand could go away.

I do believe we will end up in Q1 2009 at the end of FY13. I can't imagine EB1 maintaining this torrid pace in to next year. Also, I'm not sure what's going with the EB4 category..maybe we'll see something there. The key ofcourse continues to be will CO use QSP or wait till Q3 or Q4.

[qesehmk]

Murali - good thoughts and calculations. I agree.

Dec 2008 by Sep 2013 is a certainty IMHO. Possibly it could be better than that. The simple reason behind this is that ... the demand waxes and wanes between years. So last year EB1 only received 25K. So it is imperative that this year they will more than utilize their quota. EB2ROW on the other hand is steadfast and probably will not yield a whole lot either this year or next.

p.s. - Check out the S Korea EB usage. Its almost 13K for 2011. I think that is a good example of arbitratry interpretation of 7% country limit by USCIS. I think we should be happy for them. However , it would be more equitable if EB visas were strictly FIFO within a category to begin with and without any limit for at least certain categories such as EB1. Why should there be any limit on people with extraordinary abilities?

Thanks for your post Q. So if this is the harsh reality, let me take a potshot at what 2013 is going to look like (I am sure the demand data that will be released next month, or in a week will give us a lot of info).

There are essentially around 5K filers with PD prior to 01-Jan-2008 (as Teddy had also alluded to in one of his posts and also based on a calculation which is as follows).

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 30% remain in the system)
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 83% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 86% remain in the system)

Assuming that there is not much Demand Destruction until end of 2008 and EB2IC is pretty strong until then, lets go with 1800 a month including porting.

Until Dec 31, 2007

(6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45)*1800 = 5130 until the end of 2007 (kind of re-affirms the 5K filers in the system until Dec 31, 2007)

From Jan 1, 2008 to mid 2008 (lets say June 30, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83)*1800 = 7254

In entire 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86)*1800 = 16542

So, my guess is that when EB2IC gets its usual 5600 per year in oct 2012, the dates should cross in Jan 2008 barely or just about. After that approx 7-8K visas will be needed to clear cases until mid 2008 and approx 17000 visas will be needed to clear all 2008 cases.

So a dull year like 2012, if it repeats in 2013 and we get like 20K visas (the 20K includes our standard 5.6K visas per year), then we may end up at Nov 2008 since we need 5130+16542=21672 visas to clear out entire 2008.

So if we get 0 Sofad + 5.6K we will land at Dec 2007 by end of FY 2013
If we get 7 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at June 30, 2008
If we get 17 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at Dec 30, 2008

Cheers and Have a great Sunday

Murali

[murali83]

Thanks Q. One question though ( vizcard had also mentioned this about EB1).

I am not sure where to look, how many pending eb1's where there at the end of fy2011.
Is the total demand for eb1 same in fy2011 and fy2012.

If thats the case then that is good news. Since they will all be cleared by sep 2012.

Then in 2013 eb1 can yield sofad even if demand stays same since there will be almost 0 carryover from this year. If their usage is going increase or is showing signs of that from i-140 inventory then all bets are off wrt to eb1 yielding anything.

[murali83]

Murali - Seems logical given the assumptions. There is a lot of info that we should be getting in the next few weeks that'll help the analysis. Demand data ofcourse and then the next VB. If we DON'T go "U" for the rest of the year, then some of that April 2007 - Aug 2007 demand could go away.

I do believe we will end up in Q1 2009 at the end of FY13. I can't imagine EB1 maintaining this torrid pace in to next year. Also, I'm not sure what's going with the EB4 category..maybe we'll see something there. The key ofcourse continues to be will CO use QSP or wait till Q3 or Q4.

Vizcard, even after aila announcement, do you still believe that they will any gc's for eb2-ic. If they are not going to issue visas, then keeping it as U will help us in decreasing some possible porting.

What are ur thoughts?

Regarding CO, i think or hope he will at least clear the 5k filers in 2007 (they have waited enuf) with the 5.6k annual quota.

After that its anyone's guess.

[qesehmk]

Murali - 485 pending inventory for Oct 1 2011 shows the pending EB1 then. The total demand always is more or less same for EB1 or any other category. What makes the difference is the processing of the demand is uneven across years. So e.g. last two years the kazarian memo has helped keep EB1 demand in check. LAst year especially much less must have been approved compared to the intake. But in nutshell - EB1 annual demand is easily above 30K every year and can be upto 40K in a good year. Yes I do believe EB1 will stay current. Backlog won't be zero though since some cases are always in processing stage. Generally I would believe thats 3-4 months of inventory. So in an ideal world the full year demand should be 3-4 times the backlog at any time for categories that are current.

EB1 could provide sofad in 2013. But as I said it is difficult to predict given the uneven processing of EB1 demand. So USCIS can suddenly pick up speed or slow down. Who knows?

Thanks Q. One question though ( vizcard had also mentioned this about EB1).

I am not sure where to look, how many pending eb1's where there at the end of fy2011.
Is the total demand for eb1 same in fy2011 and fy2012.

If thats the case then that is good news. Since they will all be cleared by sep 2012.

Then in 2013 eb1 can yield sofad even if demand stays same since there will be almost 0 carryover from this year. If their usage is going increase or is showing signs of that from i-140 inventory then all bets are off wrt to eb1 yielding anything.

[red200]

what does a processing time of 8.1 months mean on the USCIS website? (at the same page where we can check the case status too).
does it mean that a person who applied the 485 on oct 1st 2011 , should be processed by jun 3rd 2012 ?


This seems to be different than the one posted on https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processi...lay.do(updated apr 23 2012)


my question is, can a applicant inquire his case status using the first one with uscis , instead of by a particular date, ie like Aug 11 2012 ?

Guy's

Ok may be i was not clear in the previous post

It seems from the same USCIS web site , i see two different processing times one which says

Applications are processed before a specific date (now its aug 11 2011) and other
which says processing time for 485 application is 6 months or 8.1 months.

Is there a relation between the two ?

for Example few weeks back the specific date was jun 2011 and the processing time was 8.1 months , but from Jun 2011 to Apr 2012 it is 10 months or more.

which one should we quote when opening a SR with USCIS costumer service ?

[murali83]

Murali - 485 pending inventory for Oct 1 2011 shows the pending EB1 then. The total demand always is more or less same for EB1 or any other category. What makes the difference is the processing of the demand is uneven across years. So e.g. last two years the kazarian memo has helped keep EB1 demand in check. LAst year especially much less must have been approved compared to the intake. But in nutshell - EB1 annual demand is easily above 30K every year and can be upto 40K in a good year. Yes I do believe EB1 will stay current. Backlog won't be zero though since some cases are always in processing stage. Generally I would believe thats 3-4 months of inventory. So in an ideal world the full year demand should be 3-4 times the backlog at any time for categories that are current.

EB1 could provide sofad in 2013. But as I said it is difficult to predict given the uneven processing of EB1 demand. So USCIS can suddenly pick up speed or slow down. Who knows?

Thanks Q, lets hope for the best, as I believe that w.r.t to EB1 giving anything, we have hit rock bottom in 2012, so it can only get better and at worst stay the same. The 32-38K pending inventory that USCIS has for Eb2-IC is almost evenly split, with one half prior to Dec-2008 and the rest from Jan 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010. So overall worst case all of that should get cleared by Sep 2014 and CO might take in applications for PD's beyond 01 May 2010 sometime in Q1 2014 itself so that he does not waste any visas in 2014. But I dont want to be a smart*** and predict so far, but I just wanted to convey what you always say, EB2 is not too bad.

[suninphx]

Thanks for your post Q. So if this is the harsh reality, let me take a potshot at what 2013 is going to look like (I am sure the demand data that will be released next month, or in a week will give us a lot of info).

There are essentially around 5K filers with PD prior to 01-Jan-2008 (as Teddy had also alluded to in one of his posts and also based on a calculation which is as follows).

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 30% remain in the system)
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 83% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 86% remain in the system)

Assuming that there is not much Demand Destruction until end of 2008 and EB2IC is pretty strong until then, lets go with 1800 a month including porting.

Until Dec 31, 2007

(6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45)*1800 = 5130 until the end of 2007 (kind of re-affirms the 5K filers in the system until Dec 31, 2007)

From Jan 1, 2008 to mid 2008 (lets say June 30, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83)*1800 = 7254

In entire 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86)*1800 = 16542

So, my guess is that when EB2IC gets its usual 5600 per year in oct 2012, the dates should cross in Jan 2008 barely or just about. After that approx 7-8K visas will be needed to clear cases until mid 2008 and approx 17000 visas will be needed to clear all 2008 cases.

So a dull year like 2012, if it repeats in 2013 and we get like 20K visas (the 20K includes our standard 5.6K visas per year), then we may end up at Nov 2008 since we need 5130+16542=21672 visas to clear out entire 2008.

So if we get 0 Sofad + 5.6K we will land at Dec 2007 by end of FY 2013
If we get 7 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at June 30, 2008
If we get 17 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at Dec 30, 2008

Cheers and Have a great Sunday

Murali

This is interesting approach. Thanks for detailed calculation.

On side note, density of 1800/month for PD 2008 (including porting) points to pretty HIGH demand destruction (contrary to what you have stated in your post) .I will be personally very happy to see that coming to reality.

[murali83]

This is interesting approach. Thanks for detailed calculation.

On side note, density of 1800/month for PD 2008 (including porting) points to pretty HIGH demand destruction (contrary to what you have stated in your post) .I will be personally very happy to see that coming to reality.

Suninphx,

The data next month should tell us the story. So far based on the same approach I have listed above we have 12.04 months (6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45 + 2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86) of demand until end of 2008. Lets say 2009 is the deep demand destruction year, lets call that 12*X*0.6, where X is the density per month. I used 0.6 for 2009 to account for relative demand destruction compared to other years. In 2010 we have 4 months of lets say normal demand, that is 4*X.

So we have (12.04+7.2+4)*X = 23.24*X

If we have pending inventory of 41K, then 1800 is an underestimate, or else we should be on track, meaning 1800 is a safe assumption. If 0.6 as the relative demand destruction factor for 2009 is an underestimate, then please correct me and in that case 23.24 will only go up and the density will come down for any pending inventory number. Let us see what the numbers have to say, so far I am hearing estimates of 35K in the pending inventory. Fingers crossed.

[suninphx]

Suninphx,

The data next month should tell us the story. So far based on the same approach I have listed above we have 12.04 months (6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45 + 2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86) of demand until end of 2008. Lets say 2009 is the deep demand destruction year, lets call that 12*X*0.6, where X is the density per month. I used 0.6 for 2009 to account for relative demand destruction compared to other years. In 2010 we have 4 months of lets say normal demand, that is 4*X.

So we have (12.04+7.2+4)*X = 23.24*X

If we have pending inventory of 41K, then 1800 is an underestimate, or else we should be on track, meaning 1800 is a safe assumption. If 0.6 as the relative demand destruction factor for 2009 is an underestimate, then please correct me and in that case 23.24 will only go up and the density will come down for any pending inventory number. Let us see what the numbers have to say, so far I am hearing estimates of 35K in the pending inventory. Fingers crossed.

Not sure if the my definition of demand destruction matches with yours but here is how I calculate it. Based on historical data number of EB2/3IC PERM cases approx. equals Eb2IC demand. That gives a OR of 1. Any thing below this OR is what I consider as demand destruction. So if we take example of year PD 2008 then we have around 28000 EB2/3IC PERM cases i.e. density of about 2300/per month. So if as you said , if you want to assume NO demand destruction then your count should be around 2300/month. But your calculations appear assumes 1800/month density which means OR of about .75 which indicate high demand destruction.(note that we have not even considered porting in whole scenario)

You may want to read this very good post by Spec :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ation-of-Terms

Update: I am not contesting 1800/month density. All I am pointing out is , that density can be a reality only if there is high demand destruction ( contrary to to your assumption in original post of 'no or very little demand destruction').

[qesehmk]

Here is my devil's advocate. If row doesn't show DD why should we expect it from eb2ic?

[suninphx]

Here is my devil's advocate. If row doesn't show DD why should we expect it from eb2ic?

Q, I think you are comparing two different time frames for EB2IC and ROW( this is based on one of your your posts I read few days back) . Another thing is ROW being always current they are faced with little uncertanity and there is very less need for them to file multiple PERMS due to change in jobs, both husband and wife filing PERMS and moving back to home country etc. So we take example of. EB2IC candidate and ROW candidate facing a slow economy then ROW candidate has advantage of EAD for holding current position or finding new job and may not need to refile PERM etc. Pre AUG 2007 even EB2IC had advantage of EAD. So demand destruction is essentially an event post Aug 2007 and specifically during slow down period of 2008/09. If economy stays as it is currently then OR post 2009 will inch towards 1 , IMO.

[abcx13]

Here is my devil's advocate. If row doesn't show DD why should we expect it from eb2ic?

Good question. Also because I think IC ppl are more hungry to come here as compared to Western Europeans, Australians, etc., they will try their damnedest to get back with their old employer or find a new GC sponsoring employer to use their old, now current PD.

[abcx13]

Q, I think you are comparing two different time frames for EB2IC and ROW( this is based on one of your your posts I read few days back) . Another thing is ROW being always current they are faced with little uncertanity and there is very less need for them to file multiple PERMS due to change in jobs, both husband and wife filing PERMS and moving back to home country etc. So we take example of. EB2IC candidate and ROW candidate facing a slow economy then ROW candidate has advantage of EAD for holding current position or finding new job and may not need to refill PERM etc. Pre AUG 2007 even EB2IC had advantage of EAD. So demand destruction is essentially an event post Aug 2007 and specifically during slow down period of 2008/09. If economy stays as it is currently then OR post 2009 will inch towards 1 , IMO.

Fair point, but then the question becomes if EB2ROW usage declined during crisis years?

[suninphx]

Fair point, but then the question becomes if EB2ROW usage declined during crisis years?

Not sure if you read Spec's post. I have have given link in another reply. Demand destruction is not about less usage. So EB2IC PERM filings in 2009 were significantly less , that is not what we call demand destruction. It's more about people needing to file multiple PERMS for various reasons and moving back to home country etc. resulting in OR of less than 1, that's what would be demand destruction. At least that's my understanding.

[abcx13]

Not sure if you read Spec's post. I have have given link in another reply. Demand destruction is not about less usage. So EB2IC PERM filings in 2009 were significantly less , that is not what we call demand destruction. It's more about people needing to file multiple PERMS for various reasons and moving back to home country etc. resulting in OR of less than 1, that's what would be demand destruction. At least that's my understanding.

yes, I understand what DD means. But since EB2ROW is always current, there will be no "demand destruction" to speak of wrt PERM filings, or minimal compared to EB2IC.

[shashinehal]

I just read the news on Oh Law site where it says "At the end of February 2012, NSC had only 39,779 preadicated I-485 cases and TSC had 42,261 preadjudicated I-485 cases. Probably these rapid consumptions of the preadjudicated cases affected FY 2012 employment-based visa numbers exhaustion."
Is this true/correct ? This matches to earlier post by someone where he mentioned one of the big law firm got internal news that there are around 81k I-485 cases filed.
Guru's can you shed some light on the same ?

[suninphx]

yes, I understand what DD means. But since EB2ROW is always current, there will be no "demand destruction" to speak of wrt PERM filings, or minimal compared to EB2IC.

Exactly the point. So we are talking about DD in context of IC.