EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[imdeng]

Quite a sad state of affairs. I hope the inventory report or demand data comes soon that gives us some idea of how much EB2IC inventory is lying there.

I assume this means that the June VB will show EB2-IC as Unavailable.

The fact DOS has announced this so early probably means there are more than enough EB1 and EB2-WW cases to use up the remaining visas, so the imposition of a Cut Off Date for EB2-WW looks far more likely at some point towards the end of the FY.

[qesehmk]

It's unfortunate but looks more plausible than not.

I am sure many of you will already have seen this.

From Ron Gotcher http://www.immigration-information.c...1571#post71571



I assume this means that the June VB will show EB2-IC as Unavailable.

The fact DOS has announced this so early probably means there are more than enough EB1 and EB2-WW cases to use up the remaining visas, so the imposition of a Cut Off Date for EB2-WW looks far more likely at some point towards the end of the FY.

[vizcard]

2nd half of 2007 PDs and Jan filers will feel the impact of this alert more than anyone else. I think Feb filers will still probably get greened on the same timetable as before. But this will delay projected approval dates for 2nd half of 2007 and 2008 PDs by 6-9 months.

[TeddyKoochu]

@Jonty Rhodes / @sportsfan33 - This figure of 80K is indeed top of the line, it is way up. Sports my estimate maybe slightly different from yours it would be 1800 per month porting inclusive. I would expect the next inventory to show 35K EB2 I/C backlog.

@kd2008 – Trackitt counts would stabilize for the time being as excitement would die down for EB2 I/C folks however these numbers would probably rise again once the approval season starts.

It is for categories like Eb2 ROW that the excitement has stayed kind of same where direct Trackitt ratio’s for the previous year’s work well. The OR range of 0.7 – 0.8 is a very good working range going forward.

@Spec – Thanks for posting. The news is really sad, earth shattering to PWMB’s who missed on approval this time and to those with a 2007 PD and missing out, I consider myself lucky having made it in Mid March.

Congratulations really to everyone approved and to everyone who got their chance to file for their 485’s. Really heartbreaking for those who missed out especially those having a 2007 PD and especially some of the PWMB cases.

This kind of reaffirms that atleast the 5.6K EB2 I/C cap was a kind of buffer that was being used, I believe these many numbers were allocated in Oct itself as we could not have had any kind of spillover in Oct and by Mar 23rd the realization had dawned that EB1 will be giving no SOFAD and EB2 ROW is going at the same level last year so they applied the emergency brakes.

Overall this year is a huge disappointment as in the dates just moving from 15th Apr 2007 to 15 Aug 2007 with the huge swing to May 2010. There are possibly 5K filers with PD prior to 01-JAN-2008 still left in the system. The current news kind of reaffirms some of the older predictions if everything had been totally orderly then the dates would have barely crossed 2007.

[pdfeb09]

@Jonty Rhodes / @sportsfan33 - This figure of 80K is indeed top of the line, it is way up. Sports my estimate maybe slightly different from yours it would be 1800 per month porting inclusive. I would expect the next inventory to show 35K EB2 I/C backlog.

@kd2008 – Trackitt counts would stabilize for the time being as excitement would die down for EB2 I/C folks however these numbers would probably rise again once the approval season starts.

It is for categories like Eb2 ROW that the excitement has stayed kind of same where direct Trackitt ratio’s for the previous year’s work well. The OR range of 0.7 – 0.8 is a very good working range going forward.

@Spec – Thanks for posting. The news is really sad, earth shattering to PWMB’s who missed on approval this time and to those with a 2007 PD and missing out, I consider myself lucky having made it in Mid March.

Congratulations really to everyone approved and to everyone who got their chance to file for their 485’s. Really heartbreaking for those who missed out especially those having a 2007 PD and especially some of the PWMB cases.

This kind of reaffirms that atleast the 5.6K EB2 I/C cap was a kind of buffer that was being used, I believe these many numbers were allocated in Oct itself as we could not have had any kind of spillover in Oct and by Mar 23rd the realization had dawned that EB1 will be giving no SOFAD and EB2 ROW is going at the same level last year so they applied the emergency brakes.

Overall this year is a huge disappointment as in the dates just moving from 15th Apr 2007 to 15 Aug 2007 with the huge swing to May 2010. There are possibly 5K filers with PD prior to 01-JAN-2008 still left in the system. The current news kind of reaffirms some of the older predictions if everything had been totally orderly then the dates would have barely crossed 2007.

Would this probably mean NO(or negligible) movement until July 2013?

Looks like this year's movement is over, and there will be NO QSP applied FY2013 (predictable EB2I/C demand and unpredictable ROW/EB1,4,5 will prevent CO from venturing into the QSP territory again).

Oh the looooooooooong wait.. !!

[goforgreen]

This news from AILA confirms that there will not be any spillover in fourth quarter of 2012. Wait begins for 2013, dont know if dates will move in Oct or only in Q1 2013.

[pdfeb09]

I don't understand why they won't use QSP in FY 2013. Remember the USCIS's plight to renew thousands of EAD/APs for free. Unless the EB2-ROW community raises hell, I don't see why not QSP.

I just think that CO would not be worried about USCIS having to renew the EAD/AP for free. QSP could, on the other hand, leave him red faced in case EB2Row runs out of visas before the countries in it reach their limits. This scenario could very well materialize this time and CO would want to avoid a repeat.

Judging from this year, it seems that the EB1 backlog from last year slid into this year. Taking this 2 year window as the guideline, I think they will again create a substantial spillover from EB1 next year, and they might even engineer the QSP to use this spillover throughput the year. Nothing is really out of question. They have a 6 to 9 month of processing window at their disposal, and they can do any maneuvers in this window. Let's wait and watch.

I certainly hope so. You are probably right about the EB1 demand sliding in from the past year - a scenario unlikely for FY 2013. I too hope that we get a good spillover from EB1 next year.However, this will play out towards the end of FY2013 rather than up front.

One advantage I see for EB2-IC filers as a result of 'U' is that the concurrent filing from the porters will stop, and they will have to file only when the dates open up. That delays their filing time by x months, so 250 (porters per month) * x = additional visas EB2-IC gets in the short term (beginning of FY).

I don't know. Delaying the filing time for porters will hardly affect their place in the queue unless they are not ready to file when their dates are current. It will not affect the number of visas they are likely to consume in a given period of time.

Sorry if I am being too pessimistic... !

[tatikonda]

I got RFE for the Dependent, my Dependent was on H4 when she came here in 2006 and in nov 2008 to apr 2009 she was on H1 and bcs of illness she did not do the job and the H1 was canceled in Apr 2009, but in 2010 1040 tax return her occupation shows software engineer and in G-385 says she is Housewife. please give me suggestions how to respond for this RFE.

Actual RFE
"In your Form G-325 A you declare that you have not engaged in any employment in the US from Jan 2007 to present, however also as evidence in support of your application, you submit a copy of your 2010 form 1040, US individual Income Tax Return which shows your (the spouse) occupation to have been that of a software engineer."

[pdfeb09]

.... My lawyer did tell me ..... most of 2008 and 2009 filers (in our company) should get their GCs before March 2013........

I would absolutely love it if this happens. I am sure everyone here would love it too.

[goforgreen]

we have two extreme views here, one says 2007 will be cleared only in July 13 and another says all of 2008 and 2009 will be cleared by Mar 13. Dont know if I should go with the pessimistic one and be prepared for the worst or the optimistic one and have a risk of feeling dissapointed when it does not happen.

I guess I'll take the index fund approach of not reacting to market news.

[Mavrick]

" 2007 will be cleared only in July 13" is not pessimistic, it is rather incorrect in my opinion. Also, We have to trust CO's word in May 2012 Visa Bulletin and he did say that he will try to clear most of the cases until April 2010 by FY2013 - So far he has walked his talk - We can at least hope that he is 80% right.

[goforgreen]

" 2007 will be cleared only in July 13" is not pessimistic, it is rather incorrect in my opinion. Also, We have to trust CO's word in May 2012 Visa Bulletin and he did say that he will try to clear most of the cases until April 2010 by FY2013 - So far he has walked his talk - We can at least hope that he is 80% right.

CO only said efforts will be made to bring the dates back to May 2010. He has not said he will try to clear cases till Apr 2010 in FY 2013

[Mavrick]

CO only said efforts will be made to bring the dates back to May 2010. He has not said he will try to clear cases till Apr 2010 in FY 2013

I don't want to get into argument but here is the exact quote from CO. If he is 80% correct, most of us will be happy

"Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer. "

[murali83]

@Jonty Rhodes / @sportsfan33 - This figure of 80K is indeed top of the line, it is way up. Sports my estimate maybe slightly different from yours it would be 1800 per month porting inclusive. I would expect the next inventory to show 35K EB2 I/C backlog.

Overall this year is a huge disappointment as in the dates just moving from 15th Apr 2007 to 15 Aug 2007 with the huge swing to May 2010. There are possibly 5K filers with PD prior to 01-JAN-2008 still left in the system. The current news kind of reaffirms some of the older predictions if everything had been totally orderly then the dates would have barely crossed 2007.

Teddy and other gurus here,

I am a little confused, Last year ended with April 15, 2007 and if things had gone orderly we would have ended somewhere near Dec 15, 2007 (approx). Thats 8 months worth movement and I guess there is some consensus that overall 20K visas have been issued to EB2 I-C this year. So doesn't that validate the 2500 per month. I understand that demand might be lower in second half of 2008 and 2009, so my question is if the 1800 is an average number or is there something else I should add in my calculations.

[suninphx]

Teddy and other gurus here,

I am a little confused, Last year ended with April 15, 2007 and if things had gone orderly we would have ended somewhere near Dec 15, 2007 (approx). Thats 8 months worth movement and I guess there is some consensus that overall 20K visas have been issued to EB2 I-C this year. So doesn't that validate the 2500 per month. I understand that demand might be lower in second half of 2008 and 2009, so my question is if the 1800 is an average number or is there something else I should add in my calculations.

You need to probably factor in backlog carried forward from last FY and PWMBs. (and porting)

[feedmyback]

Some with PD 26 Feb 2009 got his GC approved. Posted this morning!! Not sure if anyone already shared this here....

http://www.trackitt.com/member/matrixminder

[drysnow]

Gurus, Pandits Please advise:
I am a 2007 EB2I Nov PD, filed in 2011 Dec 1st. No movement in there.
Now my earlier EB2 I140 from 2004 Dec got approved (after 2 appeals each 2 to 3 years and lot of stress and strain), This is also from the same employer same category.
Is there a possibility that it will be linked to my 485 automatically or do I go through the lawyer?
The point of concern is I have to pay the full fee for my kid who is going to college this September (They are treating us as non residents though we lived in the same state for 12 years). If I get GC before august I would save a ton of money in the fee and scholarship. We already had to decline some offers from the best colleges due to our status.

[Kanmani]

Gurus, Pandits Please advise:
I am a 2007 EB2I Nov PD, filed in 2011 Dec 1st. No movement in there.
Now my earlier EB2 I140 from 2004 Dec got approved (after 2 appeals each 2 to 3 years and lot of stress and strain), This is also from the same employer same category.
Is there a possibility that it will be linked to my 485 automatically or do I go through the lawyer?
The point of concern is I have to pay the full fee for my kid who is going to college this September (They are treating us as non residents though we lived in the same state for 12 years). If I get GC before august I would save a ton of money in the fee and scholarship. We already had to decline some offers from the best colleges due to our status.

They are not linked automatically.

If the adjudicator finds two Eb2 I-140s with different PDs in your file, he would choose the earlier date as PD for getting the visa number. But, before doing that he may shoot an RFE to get confirmation from you to choose between the jobs.

Having assumed that your case is already pre-adjudicated , you may need one EVL again and attorney's help to kick start your old PD.

[veni001]

This news from AILA confirms that there will not be any spillover in fourth quarter of 2012. Wait begins for 2013, don't know if dates will move in Oct or only in Q1 2013.

IMHO,that will depend on EB1 & EB2 ROW demand at the end of FY2012.

Only way EB2IC can see significant forward movement in Q1 of FY2013 if and only if documentarily qualified demand for EB1&EB2ROW is less than the available VISA numbers in a given quarter.

[openaccount]

Approvals for EB2ROW/EB1/A/B/C from trackitt

------------------OCT10-Sept11-----OCT10-APR11------OCT11-APR12
EB2-ROW--------539-----------------289-----------------269
EB1A--------------67-------------------37------------------55
EB1B--------------89-------------------51------------------76
EB1C-------------100-------------------45-----------------190

From above numbers we can see huge increase in EB1A/B/C approvals. EB2ROW approvals are pretty much at same level at this time of last year. If this approval trend continues EB1 might consume all spill over from EB4/EB5 for remainder of 2012.

[Spectator]

Approvals for EB2ROW/EB1/A/B/C from trackitt

------------------OCT10-Sept11-----OCT10-APR11------OCT11-APR12
EB2-ROW--------539-----------------289-----------------269
EB1A--------------67-------------------37------------------55
EB1B--------------89-------------------51------------------76
EB1C-------------100-------------------45-----------------190

From above numbers we can see huge increase in EB1A/B/C approvals. EB2ROW approvals are pretty much at same level at this time of last year. If this approval trend continues EB1 might consume all spill over from EB4/EB5 for remainder of 2012.

openaccount,

I do agree EB1 approvals are higher than last year, but it would be truer to say that we have seen a "huge increase in EB1A/B/C approvals" on Trackitt which may be disproportional to the actual increase.

I think we need to look a little beyond the "headline figures" to determine the true increase.

The last figures for EB1 I-140 applications as of July 19, 2011 shows the numbers of applications were reasonably constant.

We can surmise that EB1 I-485 approvals last year were artificially low because of delays introduced by Kazarian, so we should expect approvals to be higher this year.

Looking at Trackitt, there were an unusually high number of I-485 applications added in 2011 compared to previous years (EB1A - 150%, EB1B - 125%, EB1C - 220%, Weighted Increase - 180%).

We might therefore expect Trackitt to show higher approval numbers (for the same actual number) in FY2012 than FY2011 taking processing time into account. To a certain extent, it explains the extremely high number of EB1C approvals. Determining what EB1 is actually doing is quite hard this year.

If any of the EB1 backlog increase from last year is also cleared this year, I don't think EB1 will contribute any spillover and could use some from EB5. Otherwise, EB1 will contribute a few k. CO really needs that to happen to service the spillover (c.14-18k) that EB2-IC already needs.

EB2 seems to have received about 67k last year, of which EB2-IC may have received about 34k. That means EB2-WW received about 33k.

I agree, that at present based on Trackitt approval alone, EB2-WW is on course to repeat something similar, if approval patterns are similar to last year and assuming sufficient visa numbers remain.

However, 5 months is a long time and anything can happen.

[Spectator]

Since we have a little extra information, I thought i would have a look at the figures to see if I could determine the level of Porting for last year FY2011.

Those of you who have ever attempted this know how difficult it is to determine Porting numbers. My latest attempt may not be great, but i thought I would throw it out here anyway.

I am looking at the difference between the change in the Demand Data versus the estimated number of visas received by EB2 China and EB2-India.

I am assuming that Demand Data probably doesn't capture (when COD is Current for the PD) :

a) PWMB
b) Porting

In addition the Demand Data may temporarily be affected by :

c) Some CP cases that become documentarily qualified, then disappear after approval.

I am ignoring (c) because it won't represent a large number and is unknown.

I am using an estimated figure of 34k SOFAD for EB2-IC. In addition, I am assuming that EB2-C has no Porting (this probably isn't entirely correct, but EB2-C appears to have very little Porting from the scant information available.)


---------------------- China -- India -- Total
Start Demand FY2011 -- 11,300 - 22,925 - 34,225
End Demand FY2011 ----- 3,250 -- 5,000 -- 8,250
Demand Change --------- 8,050 - 17,925 - 25,975

Visas Used ------------ 8,500 - 25,500 - 34,000
Difference -------------- 450 -- 7,575 -- 8,025
% Difference ---------- 5.29% - 29.71% - 23.60%

PWMB -------------------- 450 -- 1,350 -- 1,800
Porting ------------------- 0 -- 6,225 -- 6,225


From the Difference, I have prorated EB2-I PWMB figures based on EB2-C numbers and Visas Used.

This leaves Porting for EB2-I at about 6k, which is figure that Teddy originally suggested (0.5k / month).

Feel free to rip the thought process apart.

[usernameisnotvalid]

This better not be true otherwise I will loose trust in almost everything!

Some with PD 26 Feb 2009 got his GC approved. Posted this morning!! Not sure if anyone already shared this here....

http://www.trackitt.com/member/matrixminder

[TheTexan]

This proves that the officers do "Eeni meeny miny moe" to select an application for processing :-)

[vishnu]

also implies that there is good chance for dates to move fast in the next year (given many 2008 and few 2009 apps have already been approved...