EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kd2008]

kd
For this context, let me call 40k as regular visas and anything over 40k is spillover. I have no doubt in regular visas distribution.
My argument was for spillover allocation after 40K is exhausted and EB2 ROW is assigned with an COD. Lets say oct 2011 for the entire Eb2 catogory ( like EB3 ROW).
10K spillover from Eb4->Eb5->Eb1->Eb2
Whats you take here? Who will be assigned first?

Once the visas come down to EB2, they are applied to the EB2 category as whole. There is no special class of spillover visas.
Now within EB2, there are specific rules for granting the visas. They are same rules irrespective of whether there is a cut-off date for the category or not, and whether the visas are coming from regular quota or from spillover.

The rules within the category are always the same.

Hence USCIS changed the spillover rule in 2009.

Earlier they were doing Eb1ROW => EB2ROW => EB3ROW fall down and no fall across. Now they do it EBROW => EBIC fall across within each category and then a fall down EB1 to EB2 to EB3. This is a category fall down.

[imdeng]

Kanmani - I am recalling the discussions that happened here and in Teddy's ** forum some time back regarding the similar situation in EB3 i.e. if EB3 receives spillover, will it go to EB3ROW or EB3I. I believe after much discussion the majority (not consensus) view was that the visas will go to EB3ROW since the PD based distribution does not happen until all the below-7%-demand is fulfilled. Once there is no more demand from countries below 7% threshold, then any additional visas go to the oldest PD irrespective of the country.

So, in my opinion, if there are countries in EB2ROW that have outstanding demand but have not met the 7% threshold, then any available visas (including spillover) will first go to them.

kd
For this context, let me call 40k as regular visas and anything over 40k is spillover. I have no doubt in regular visas distribution.
My argument was for spillover allocation after 40K is exhausted and EB2 ROW is assigned with an COD, lets say oct 2011 ( like EB3 ROW).
10K spillover from Eb4->Eb5->Eb1->Eb2
Whats your take here? Who will be assigned first?

[murali83]

Yes, I agree with you. But according to the October 2011 inventory there were 14K pending, and October 2010 inventory there were 7.6K pending. So an addition of 6.4K cases this year due to larger backlog of cases. The new demand for this fiscal year will have to jump 15K (last year's spillover) - 6.4K (extra backlog from last year) = 8.6K for Eb1 to consume all its quota. Compared to last year's consumption of 25K, this is a 8.6K/25K = 34.4% jump. Quite unlikely. As Spec has said earlier, ultimately, we may see a small spillover from EB1 at the end of the year.

Kd,

Based on trackitt, can we get an idea. Just by looking at total cases filed, eb1a and b seem very similar to previous years. But eb1c shows a sharp rise. For example eb1c pd's between jan and dec 2010 is 139, while jan and dec 2011 is 219.

But trackiit representation could have gone up. I am unable to backup my argument more. But eb1c could spike it easily by 34%

cheers

[Spectator]

http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/...ons/LPR11.shtm
check Table 10 for 2011 numbers by country of birth...

Jack,

Once again, thanks for reporting this. It appears the information in the articles by Alan Lee was very accurate.

I hadn't even been looking for the DHS Statistics because they usually come out much later than those from DOS (which still haven't been published). They are usually pretty close to the official DOS figures.

Usage By Category

EB1 ---- 25,251
EB2 ---- 66,831
EB3 ---- 37,216
EB4 ----- 6,701
EB5 ----- 3,340

Total - 139,339

It is an absolute shocker that EB3 received so few visas yet again.

Theoretical spillover from EB1/4/5 appears to be 24.6k. In reality, EB2 received 26.8k which is 2.2k more than was available. Effectively, EB2 robbed EB3 of visas.

Since EB2-C are known to have used at least 8.3k visas, that would make the EB2-I share about 25-26k for SOFAD of about 34k.

That would mean that EB2-ROW/M/P used very close to their 34.4k allocation. If they didn't, then SOFAD must be far higher, but there are limits, if the information about EB2-C is correct and taking into account that India received 33.6k EB visas in total across EB1 - EB5.

The higher SOFAD also indicates that there were a few thousand EB2-IC cases we either didn't know about, or Porting was much higher than anticipated.

Consular Processing in EB2 represented 2.5%, EB3 was 20.0% and CP was 10.7% overall for EB.

We will know when the official DOS Visa Statistics are published, which have the Country breakdown.

Breakdown of EB1

EB1A -------- 2,524 -- 23.67%
EB1B -------- 2,466 -- 23.12%
EB1C -------- 5,675 -- 53.21%

Dependents - 14,586 -- Ratio 2.38 approvals per Primary

Total ------ 25,251

That is very similar to the split for FY2010.

As it affects EB3, it is interesting that Mexico received 9,164 EB visas and Philippines 7,398.

Since neither Country uses huge numbers in other EB Categories, it suggests high usage in EB3, which would depress the numbers available to EB3-ROW.

South Korea again used a very high number of EB visas - 12.6k.

[kd2008]

So, in other words if at all Eb3 category gets some spillover , it doesn't necessarily go to IC backlog, it may be assigned to some group of ROW countries who haven't reached their 2800. Correct?

Thanks imdeng

Yes, that is correct and very sad reality for EB3-I folks

[imdeng]

Even more sad considering that EB3 is not even getting its normal 40K allocation. It is absolutely criminal to only give 37.2K visas to EB3 in FY2011 when USCIS/DOS is sitting on a ton of (hopefully pre-approved) EB3 inventory. Inexcusable.

Yes, that is correct and very sad reality for EB3-I folks

[nishant2200]

These are few points which I thought of:

1. CO is going to continue to do QSP.
2. Because of using QSP, in quarters where he sees less demand from EB2-ROW, he is assigning to EB2-IC, whereas when he sees potential of bigger demand from EB2-ROW, which would consume more than a quarter's visas (projection), he would need to set up a COD even for EB2-ROW. I don't think people should blame him for being partial to IC or knowingly advantaging any group, I feel, it's just the dynamics of QSP, which is leading to this situation.
3. Again next time he gets to near depleting the EB2-IC pre-adjudicated inventory, we can expect similar moves.

[idiotic]

These are few points which I thought of:

1. CO is going to continue to do QSP.
2. Because of using QSP, in quarters where he sees less demand from EB2-ROW, he is assigning to EB2-IC, whereas when he sees potential of bigger demand from EB2-ROW, which would consume more than a quarter's visas (projection), he would need to set up a COD even for EB2-ROW. I don't think people should blame him for being partial to IC or knowingly advantaging any group, I feel, it's just the dynamics of QSP, which is leading to this situation.
3. Again next time he gets to near depleting the EB2-IC pre-adjudicated inventory, we can expect similar moves.

Nice explanation. Thanks.

[abcx13]

Yes, I agree with you. But according to the October 2011 inventory there were 14K pending, and October 2010 inventory there were 7.6K pending. So an addition of 6.4K cases this year due to larger backlog of cases. The new demand for this fiscal year will have to jump 15K (last year's spillover) - 6.4K (extra backlog from last year) = 8.6K for Eb1 to consume all its quota. Compared to last year's consumption of 25K, this is a 8.6K/25K = 34.4% jump. Quite unlikely. As Spec has said earlier, ultimately, we may see a small spillover from EB1 at the end of the year.

Unless CO has already allocated that 'expected' spillover from EB1C to EB2IC.

[abcx13]

Theoretical spillover from EB1/4/5 appears to be 24.6k. In reality, EB2 received 26.8k which is 2.2k more than was available. Effectively, EB2 robbed EB3 of visas.

Since EB2-C are known to have used at least 8.3k visas, that would make the EB2-I share about 25-26k for SOFAD of about 34k.

That would mean that EB2-ROW/M/P used very close to their 34.4k allocation. If they didn't, then SOFAD must be far higher, but there are limits, if the information about EB2-C is correct and taking into account that India received 33.6k EB visas in total across EB1 - EB5.

The higher SOFAD also indicates that there were a few thousand EB2-IC cases we either didn't know about, or Porting was much higher than anticipated.

Consular Processing in EB2 represented 2.5%, EB3 was 20.0% and CP was 10.7% overall for EB.

We will know when the official DOS Visa Statistics are published, which have the Country breakdown.

Breakdown of EB1

EB1A -------- 2,524 -- 23.67%
EB1B -------- 2,466 -- 23.12%
EB1C -------- 5,675 -- 53.21%

Dependents - 14,586 -- Ratio 2.38 approvals per Primary

Total ------ 25,251

That is very similar to the split for FY2010.

Few questions:

1. Where do you get the EB2C numbers from?
2. Is DHS FY2011 actually CY 2011? Or is it the same FY (Oct - Sep) that USCIS uses? I assume it is Oct 10 - Sep 11.
3. I don't really understand how you prove that EB2-ROW consumed nearly most of their quota last year and most of SOFAD was just spill down.

It would be interesting to see EB1C usage by India/China for 2011 and 2012 to see if potentially fraudulent applications have increased for everyone or just for IC.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Few questions:

1. Where do you get the EB2C numbers from?
2. Is DHS FY2011 actually CY 2011? Or is it the same FY (Oct - Sep) that USCIS uses? I assume it is Oct 10 - Sep 11.

It would be interesting to see EB1C usage by India/China for 2011 and 2012 to see if potentially fraudulent applications have increased for everyone or just for IC.

It is from an official correspondence from DOS in early September 2011. Beyond that, I don't wish to add further comment.

DHS operates the same FY as DOS (October to September).

Unfortunately, EB1 usage by sub-Category by Country have never been published.

[Spectator]

Yes, I agree with you. But according to the October 2011 inventory there were 14K pending, and October 2010 inventory there were 7.6K pending. So an addition of 6.4K cases this year due to larger backlog of cases. The new demand for this fiscal year will have to jump 15K (last year's spillover) - 6.4K (extra backlog from last year) = 8.6K for Eb1 to consume all its quota. Compared to last year's consumption of 25K, this is a 8.6K/25K = 34.4% jump. Quite unlikely. As Spec has said earlier, ultimately, we may see a small spillover from EB1 at the end of the year.

kd,

It is perhaps not as unlikely as you may think.

Last year, because of Kazarian, processing times for EB1 appeared to increase (I think by about 3 months). It was discussed a long time ago.

In that case, only 9 months worth of applications were processed in FY2011. Hence we had an unusually low number of approvals in FY2011.

Even if the increased processing times remain this FY, 12 months worth of EB1 cases would be processed. 12/9 represents a 33% increase. If nothing changed, the 25.3k in FY2011 would represent 33.7k in a full year.

If EB1C has increased and/or the processing times are reduced and/or the backlog is reduced, it isn't that difficult to return to the 40k level seen in FY2009 and FY2010.

[vizcard]

anything from EB1 is a bonus.

[geevikram]

Guys,
Sorry for asking this question in this thread, but I know this has the most visibility among the "stars", so here goes:

My case history :
PD : Jul 2008. Getting married May 2012. Have not applied for AOS yet.
Lawyers point :
First Option : Lawyer calls me up and asks me to apply for EAD\AP while also asking to maintain H status as my spouse will be on H4. Now, we need to monitor bulletin and apply for dependent AOS as soon as my PD becomes current. Adv: Can transfer to another employer after 180 on AC 21 on EAD, while still maintaining h1 (purely for H4 purposes).
Second option : Do not do anything now and wait until dates get current again.

Do the options make sense? Tempting to choose option 1. Any suggestions?

[Spectator]

Guys,
Sorry for asking this question in this thread, but I know this has the most visibility among the "stars", so here goes:

My case history :
PD : Jul 2008. Getting married May 2012. Have not applied for AOS yet.
Lawyers point :
First Option : Lawyer calls me up and asks me to apply for EAD\AP while also asking to maintain H status as my spouse will be on H4. Now, we need to monitor bulletin and apply for dependent AOS as soon as my PD becomes current. Adv: Can transfer to another employer after 180 on AC 21 on EAD, while still maintaining h1 (purely for H4 purposes).
Second option : Do not do anything now and wait until dates get current again.

Do the options make sense? Tempting to choose option 1. Any suggestions?

You couldn't transfer to another Employer using EAD because you would automatically lose H1B status by doing so.

You could transfer to another Employer using an H1B transfer, which would maintain your H1B status.

The advantage to you of applying for AOS before April 30 is that it starts the AC21 I-140 portability clock.

[geevikram]

Thanks Kanmani,
I did have 125 days to choose, but I never expected dates to retrogress to Aug 2007. If you recall it moved to Mar 2008 in Dec 11 bulletin. Now that it has gone back, it kind of puts me in a spot. Thanks though, I will apply for 485.

[geevikram]

You couldn't transfer to another Employer using EAD because you would automatically lose H1B status by doing so.

You could transfer to another Employer using an H1B transfer, which would maintain your H1B status.

The advantage to you of applying for AOS before April 30 is that it starts the AC21 I-140 portability clock.

Thank you spec and sportsfan. I will apply for AOS.

[gomesnj]

What is the best option on change of address and who should I contact.
I sent my application for I485/EAD/AP to uscis with my old address and received my 3 Receipt notices.
Now I have to move in two weeks to a different location.
Please advice on how do I update uscis on my new address and route them for all the future communications.

[Pundit Arjun]

What is the best option on change of address and who should I contact.
I sent my application for I485/EAD/AP to uscis with my old address and received my 3 Receipt notices.
Now I have to move in two weeks to a different location.
Please advice on how do I update uscis on my new address and route them for all the future communications.

gomesnj, check this out : https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=coa

FYI : My Attorney always recommends me to do both (paper and online). I never asked him for the reason, though !

[srividya]

India and china consumed 45.5K in EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5, At least 32K might be EB2 India & China

As per Oct 1st 2010 Inventory Pending cases are
EB2 China 11404
EB2 India: 24254

But on Oct 1st 2011 Inventory shows 14K pending for EB2 India and China.

Probably Significant Oct Approvals got visa number allocated from 2011 Quota. otherwise there was no reason to clear 10K EB2 India & china cases getting approved in the begining of the year. At the end to avoid numbers wastage all remaining quota got allocated to EB2 pre adjudicated cases.

This is the issue with USCIS taking more time for processing cases ( slow down in EB1 cases & newly filed cases in FY2011) and this may caused VO to insist 27% usage in Q1 & Q2. based on 2011 scenario VO may be prepared to handle similar scenario if it happens in 2012 by moving dates to 2010 and getting enough cases in the system like having 30-40K cases in the pipeline.

if EB2 I & C got 35K last year it will be atleast 25K+ in this year ( Eb1 may consume more + Due to perm delays EB2 ROW may go down further). This may be the reason VO optimistic moving dates to previous cut off dates again to May 1st 2010 earliest possible. )

To get EB2I numbers you need to subtract EB1I from the 30.8K figure that you have. Similarly for EB2C. Since we don't have those numbers, I don't think we can do a country breakdown of EB2 at this point.

[vizcard]

srividya,
we have to wait for the demand and usage data next month but I think we will see that CO has more than enough pipeline to last for FY 2013 and then some. So any major movement would be in Sept 2013 (if at all). Thats my guess for now.

[PD2008AUG25]

srividya,
we have to wait for the demand and usage data next month but I think we will see that CO has more than enough pipeline to last for FY 2013 and then some. So any major movement would be in Sept 2013 (if at all). Thats my guess for now.

I think it's unwise to discount CO's comments. He has been almost true to his words. If he sees reasons to move forward again to 2010 in October, I am sure he has considered the backlog. While actual number cannot be known until end of this month, he would have gotten good idea about potential demand.

[abcx13]

I think it's unwise to discount CO's comments. He has been almost true to his words. If he sees reasons to move forward again to 2010 in October, I am sure he has considered the backlog. While actual number cannot be known until end to this month, he would have gotten good idea about potential demand.

True, but then he also thought he could move it much faster earlier this year due to EB1 spill down and reduced EB2-ROW usage. So go figure. But I485 inventory data at the end of next month should tell the real story. They still have another month to accept applications till May 2010.

[PD2008AUG25]

True, but then he also thought he could move it much faster earlier this year due to EB1 spill down and reduced EB2-ROW usage. So go figure. But I485 inventory data at the end of next month should tell the real story. They still have another month to accept applications till May 2010.

Well, he did move it much faster. He had warned of potential retrogression in summer. Regardless, his comments made in recent bulletin must have considered high EB1 usage, high EB2 demand and other factors. I think he fell short of his "dream" of moving dates into 2011, but he does walk the talk.

[bieber]

I think it's unwise to discount CO's comments. He has been almost true to his words. If he sees reasons to move forward again to 2010 in October, I am sure he has considered the backlog. While actual number cannot be known until end of this month, he would have gotten good idea about potential demand.

very good point

he almost said sorry in bulletin for movings dats backwards