EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[sreddy]

Thanks Spec. Does that mean they will process cases, keep in pending? I mean if any RFEs or denials will be visible as the case is processed kind of now thro October or so. If so, I think for those filed Jan or before, it is kind of safe to invoke AC21 just in case if they want to change job after their 6moth wait time to be able to use AC21. Is that reasonable thinking or crazy thinking ?

More from Ron Gotcher. http://www.immigration-information.c...0651#post70651 entitled "Now it's official"

[qesehmk]

No worries GCUT. I think you can switch status.

Parolee is not a status. Parole is a means to enter US and continue your previous status. So once you resume that status by using AP i.e. Parole, I am quite confident that you can change from whatever that status is to any other status as long as you have valid documentation (whether H1 or F1 or H4 or F2).

Q, I stand corrected,

can you change to H-status after you are admitted as a parolee?

Guys this is what I got from my lawyer

As for visa numbers, there are no more left for this fiscal year. Visa numbers will again be available in October 2012, however, at this time there is no indication how quickly the dates will move once October comes around.

Looks like I will be waiting for the Oct bulletin.

i think when they say visas are exhausted they are talking about EB2IC having reached country limits. That doesn't mean they will NOT receive any spillover. So mark my words on this. EB2IC dates will move very much before Sep 2012 meaning they are going to receive more visas.

Secondly "as of 23rd March stopped issuing visa" doesn't mean we will NOT see ANY EB2IC approvals between now and April 30. pls refer to a post by kramcha - i believe - where his lawyer talks about visa allocation. I do think there is some truth to that. In other words - there will still be few cases where they have pulled a visa number but the case is not processed fully. However this is a minor point. The main point is that EB2IC will continue to receive SPILLOVER during the remainder of 2012.

[fedupwithgc]

http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=16843

My PD is Jul 08 and looks like my wait begins.

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

My PD is Sep 2010, When I except to be current.
atleast to apply for EAD. I am working for a MNC and they are plans to layoff people in March 2013 - June 2013. Can I expect to get my EAD Cards by that time ??

Please suggest !! I am in very confused state. I am working for this MNC for last 5 years and now that I am close to getting my GC. things changed ??

Thank u

[qesehmk]

Sport - directionally correct yes. Accurate - nobody can say that. But if you ask me to guess - I would think that your approval % seem a bit higher than what data can support. So the movement will happen in the manner you have laid out. But it will be a bit slower than you have laid out.

The two things that can contradict me are - DEMAND DESTRUCTION and 2011 Approvals. I do not believe in demand destruction i.e. people abandoning their GC voluntarily or involuntarily in a significnt manner. Secondly I do not think that in 2011 the total approvals were more than 57K.

Thanks for this Q.

Is this an accurate picture?

1. Most of the Nov 11 filers are approved (> 75%)
2. A substantial percentage of Dec 11 filers are approved (> 50%, < 75%)
3. A good number of Jan 12 filers are approved (> 25%, < 50%)
4. No Feb and Mar 12 filers are approved.

If so, dates may move to cover all remaining people in 1 and 2 when spillover is available for this fiscal year (right on the mark at around March 2008). In October 2012, dates may make a big jump depending upon how the spillover is allocated and the trends at that particular time. October - March 2013 period should cover everyone from 3, and a few people from 4. The USCIS may have to renew a few EAD/APs for free after all. It may also give 2 year combo cards to March 2012 filers to minimize the impact from that set.

That is how I see EB2-IC dates progressing in a realistic manner given everything.

Gurus,

My PD is Sep 2010, When I except to be current.
atleast to apply for EAD. I am working for a MNC and they are plans to layoff people in March 2013 - June 2013. Can I expect to get my EAD Cards by that time ??

Please suggest !! I am in very confused state. I am working for this MNC for last 5 years and now that I am close to getting my GC. things changed ??

Thank u

Generally speaking 4-5 years since your PD is when EB2IC's get GCs. So when you file is a matter of visa bulletin dates. However time to GC is fairly constant across EB2ICs.

[druvraj]

No worries GCUT. I think you can switch status.

Parolee is not a status. Parole is a means to enter US and continue your previous status. So once you resume that status by using AP i.e. Parole, I am quite confident that you can change from whatever that status is to any other status as long as you have valid documentation (whether H1 or F1 or H4 or F2).





i think when they say visas are exhausted they are talking about EB2IC having reached country limits. That doesn't mean they will NOT receive any spillover. So mark my words on this. EB2IC dates will move very much before Sep 2012 meaning they are going to receive more visas.

Secondly "as of 23rd March stopped issuing visa" doesn't mean we will NOT see ANY EB2IC approvals between now and April 30. pls refer to a post by kramcha - i believe - where his lawyer talks about visa allocation. I do think there is some truth to that. In other words - there will still be few cases where they have pulled a visa number but the case is not processed fully. However this is a minor point. The main point is that EB2IC will continue to receive SPILLOVER during the remainder of 2012.

Q and Veni,

Yes I guess my lawyer was talking about my category EB2I. I hope your are spot on Q(With your assessment). If EB2IC gets any spillover visas during this visa year that would be terrific. Hope you are right fingers crossed!!!

[usernameisnotvalid]

Actually this is good!!

At least, we have something to do in next 6 -7 months!

[vizcard]

Q - caveat to that is if HR3012 .. if that goes through, the time to get GC will decrease significantly.

[abcx13]

BTW, this is a question out of curiosity.

Can anyone comment on why people are anxious about getting their GC verses being *very happy* about receiving EAD/AP, especially in light of the fact that they won't be shelling out a couple of thousand dollars to keep renewing them circa EB3-I pre-July 2007?

Is there any other advantage the green card offers for employment purposes over the standalone EAD and pending 485? I have heard renewing drivers license in some states is a pain. Are there any other factors that make the actual green card so desirable?

The reason I am asking this is because my spouse will soon be finding work, and if there are any limitations to simply having an EAD, I would like to know them before hand. This post may be moved to a different thread if this place was not appropriate.

The only thing I can think of is you can naturalize sooner (GC+5 yrs). Since that's what I ultimately care about, I wish I could have my GC tomorrow! I'm just out of college and my company is filing for EB2-I (going through PERM right now) and they'd be really happy too if EB2-I were current and I could get it ASAP.

[abcx13]

i think when they say visas are exhausted they are talking about EB2IC having reached country limits. That doesn't mean they will NOT receive any spillover. So mark my words on this. EB2IC dates will move very much before Sep 2012 meaning they are going to receive more visas.

Secondly "as of 23rd March stopped issuing visa" doesn't mean we will NOT see ANY EB2IC approvals between now and April 30. pls refer to a post by kramcha - i believe - where his lawyer talks about visa allocation. I do think there is some truth to that. In other words - there will still be few cases where they have pulled a visa number but the case is not processed fully. However this is a minor point. The main point is that EB2IC will continue to receive SPILLOVER during the remainder of 2012.

That's not what Ron seems to think. Here's the relevant quote:

Based on Mr. Oppenheim's remarks, we may presume that there are now enough pending China/India EB2 cases in the queue at the USCIS with priority dates earlier than August 15, 2007 to exhaust the remaining supply of available visas. This, however, is not carved in stone. This is an estimate and it depends on the USCIS doing their job as they are supposed to do it. If they fail to do their job timely, it will become necessary to advance cutoff dates once again so that the overseas consular posts can step up and process enough cases to exhaust the quota. If this happens, however, it is unlikely that AOS applicants with priority dates on or after August 15, 2007 will see approvals this fiscal year.

So according to him any forward movement will be driven by slow processing on USCIS' part and it probably won't be sustainable forward movement.

All the more reason for people to get back on the HR3012 bandwagon. I hope there's still behind the scenes lobbying happening to bring it to a vote after the Recess. There's been no news for a while. But that's our only hope for a speedy GC.

[veni001]

Q and Veni,

Yes I guess my lawyer was talking about my category EB2I. I hope your are spot on Q(With your assessment). If EB2IC gets any spillover visas during this visa year that would be terrific. Hope you are right fingers crossed!!!

druvraj,

If you look at Spec's post below USCIS may have some VISA numbers (~couple of hundred?) available to issue to EB2IC with PD before 15AUG2007.

AILA just reported:

DOS Confirms China-Mainland Born and India EB-2 Cut-offs

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12040447 (posted Apr. 4, 2012)"

Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control at the State Department, has confirmed that, effective March 23, 2012, no further EB-2 visas will be authorized for China-mainland born and India applicants with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later. Visa applicants processing in April at consulates abroad will still receive visas, as those numbers were allocated before the cut-off date was established. Mr. Oppenheim understands that USCIS will continue to receive and process applications for adjustment of status for aliens with priority dates prior to the date established in the April 2012 Visa Bulletin, and those cases with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later, will be forwarded to and held by Visa Control at DOS in a "pending" file until new visas are available beginning with FY2013 on October 1, 2012. Mr. Oppenheim advises that an item in the May Visa Bulletin will address the EB-2 movement.

My interpretation of this is that the USCIS stopped issuing visas for China/India EB2 cases with priority dates on or after August 15, 2007 as of March 23rd. They will continue to pre-adjudicate these cases, however, and when priority dates again become available they will obtain visa numbers for them, issue final approvals, and close them. The reference to the pending file at the Visa Office is not new. This has been in use for years. When the USCIS pre-adjudicates an AOS case, they are supposed to notify the Visa Office. VO will then put the file into their database and factor it in as pending demand. When cutoff dates advance, VO then sends the USCIS an email for each case that becomes "current" so that the USCIS can pull the file, approve it, and close it.

[Maranatha]

Hello,

Here is an interesting news that made me wonder if they would put those 25,000 fraudulent EB visas back into the pool!

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...earl_david.pdf

[qesehmk]

The words "supply of visa" refer to quota rather than "spillover". So what Ron says is n't contradictory to what I said on this topic.

That's not what Ron seems to think. Here's the relevant quote:

So according to him any forward movement will be driven by slow processing on USCIS' part and it probably won't be sustainable forward movement.

All the more reason for people to get back on the HR3012 bandwagon. I hope there's still behind the scenes lobbying happening to bring it to a vote after the Recess. There's been no news for a while. But that's our only hope for a speedy GC.

[abcx13]

The words "supply of visa" refer to quota rather than "spillover". So what Ron says is n't contradictory to what I said on this topic.

But that can't be true, right, because the 'quota' of ~2800 * 2 for India and China has surely already been exhausted this year.

[qesehmk]

They are talking about Labor certification which can be used either for H1B or GC. In either case - more than likely those visas can't be put back into the pool.

Hello,

Here is an interesting news that made me wonder if they would put those 25,000 fraudulent EB visas back into the pool!

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...earl_david.pdf

[qesehmk]

Precisely and hence one can assume that the date they are talking about has "practically" zero documentarily qualified 485 cases left.

But that can't be true, right, because the 'quota' of ~2800 * 2 for India and China has surely already been exhausted this year.

[Spectator]

Thanks for this Q.

Is this an accurate picture?

1. Most of the Nov 11 filers are approved (> 75%)
2. A substantial percentage of Dec 11 filers are approved (> 50%, < 75%)
3. A good number of Jan 12 filers are approved (> 25%, < 50%)
4. No Feb and Mar 12 filers are approved.

If so, dates may move to cover all remaining people in 1 and 2 when spillover is available for this fiscal year (right on the mark at around March 2008). In October 2012, dates may make a big jump depending upon how the spillover is allocated and the trends at that particular time. October - March 2013 period should cover everyone from 3, and a few people from 4. The USCIS may have to renew a few EAD/APs for free after all. It may also give 2 year combo cards to March 2012 filers to minimize the impact from that set.

That is how I see EB2-IC dates progressing in a realistic manner given everything.

sportsfan,

I have been keeping track of this based on Trackitt applications with a Receipt Date of October 2011 or later here.

The figures are :

Oct VB - 62% approved
Nov VB - 57% approved
Dec VB - 47% approved
Jan VB - 11% approved

The numbers might be a bit higher if everybody has not been updating their case with the approval, but it appears most have. For later VBs, the number of applications is till increasing, so the % is actually a bit high.

Had no cases in 2008 been approved, I calculated that the dates would have retrogressed to late December 2007 rather than August 15, 2007.

[Gclongwait]

Gurus,

My PD is Sep 2010, When I except to be current.
atleast to apply for EAD. I am working for a MNC and they are plans to layoff people in March 2013 - June 2013. Can I expect to get my EAD Cards by that time ??

Please suggest !! I am in very confused state. I am working for this MNC for last 5 years and now that I am close to getting my GC. things changed ??

Thank u

unfortunately it looks like your situation may end up like someone who file between July 07 - dec 07. These people missed filing in July 07 and had to wait 4 years to file I485. Anyone who missed the current run (Pd after May10) will probably have to wait. Also its not just filing, to be safe from layoff etc you need to have your AoS pending for 6 months which means you need to file this year which seems highly unlikely. You have more than 1 year if your job is in jeopardy search for another one and port your priority date.

[openaccount]

Spec/Q-

When spill over is distributed to India/China is it distributed evenly?
Say next year if there is SO of about 14k(doesn't include regular 5.6K) to EB2IC with cut off date-Oct2008 and China has only about say 2K(or 0) demand till that cut off date then literally all spill over will be consumed by Eb2I or to meet "even distribution policy" does CO move dates more?

[qesehmk]

spillover is ALWAyS distributed in order of PD regardless country of chargeability. So dates for India China will move in tandem from spillover perspective.

Spec/Q-

When spill over is distributed to India/China is it distributed evenly?
Say next year if there is SO of about 14k(doesn't include regular 5.6K) to EB2IC with cut off date-Oct2008 and China has only about say 2K(or 0) demand till that cut off date then literally all spill over will be consumed by Eb2I or to meet "even distribution policy" does CO move dates more?

[goforgreen]

Had no cases in 2008 been approved, I calculated that the dates would have retrogressed to late December 2007 rather than August 15, 2007.

Spec that is painful to know considering my PD is in Dec and not approved yet. I guess it will move again and make us happy.

[Spectator]

An interesting post on Trackitt. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

At least the message is consistent.

I had sent an inquiry to Nebraska few days back and I got the email reply today. Here it is. This email tells that they are not issuing EB2 for anyone till Oct 2012, they didn't mention anything about 15th Aug 2007 too.

NSC, NCSC Followup NCSCFollowup.NSC@uscis.dhs.gov

2:07 PM (52 minutes ago)

to me

Greetings,


The current visa bulletin indicates the applicant is eligible to adjust based on the published priority dates. However, there are currently no visas available for their category. The demand for EB2 numbers has increased dramatically during recent months. This was at a much faster rate than had been expected based on the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date. Therefore, it was necessary for the regress of the China/India EB2 category in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit. This will allow us to maintain availability for those countries which have not yet reached their per-country limit.


Unless there is a drastic change in the current rate of number use, EB2 numbers will not be available until October 1st, under the FY-2013 annual limit. The Department of State is indicating that it will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until sometime in late summer.


Sincere Regards,

USCIS Nebraska Service Center

EX0547

NSC is so far ahead of TSC for having approved earlier PD that it wouldn't be a surprise if we see very few NSC approvals.

The person has a PD of 30 Oct 2007.

[Jonty Rhodes]

An interesting post on Trackitt. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

At least the message is consistent.



NSC is so far ahead of TSC for having approved earlier PD that it wouldn't be a surprise if we see very few NSC approvals.

The person has a PD of 30 Oct 2007.

Thanks Spec for posting this. This clarifies things.

[abcx13]

An interesting post on Trackitt. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

At least the message is consistent.



NSC is so far ahead of TSC for having approved earlier PD that it wouldn't be a surprise if we see very few NSC approvals.

The person has a PD of 30 Oct 2007.

So I guess Q is right that there will might be some spillover towards the end of the FY. But things don't seem too good for EB2-IC otherwise.

[luckycub]

Hi Gurus,
I have a quick question - I am currently using my H1B while we have EAD/AP approved but I-485 pending, does my wife need to apply for H-4 if she does not have a job yet? Thank you.