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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #6351

    Nsc-ead/ap/fp

    Quote Originally Posted by mbasense View Post
    redbull099 : i have been 'trackking' that list everyday, I have seen a lot of EAD approvals , one even came in today 03/30, but of late more of Neb. approvals are coming in, Texas seems to have slowed down. Anyway EAD/AP processing and approval must happen irrespective of 485 PD.
    Hi Guru's ,

    I dont understand behind the logic how NSC issueing EAD/AP/FP's. Who applied after Me they got all but I dont get anything as of now. I want to book the flight ticket for my family since they were never see home country around 1275 days.
    We live in Bay Area because of that or which reason they are issuing AP/EAD/FP notices whoever applied after me.(TSC people all gets in hand same my date (help :trackitt)
    Whenever/whereever always delay after waiting long period of time, getting frustrated.

    What is my recived date in that case. please help !!!

    FYI..All applied same time .

    Acceptance
    On February 7, 2012, your fingerprint fee was accepted and we have mailed you a notice
    Initial Review
    On February 3, 2012, we received this I131 APPLICATION FOR USCIS TRAVEL
    Initial Review
    On February 3, 2012, we received this I765 APPLICATION FOR EMPLOYMENT

    PD: 02/25/2009 RD : 02/03/2012, ND: 02/08/2012: NRD: 02/14/2012.
    I already open SR asked to wait 15 more days from 03/18.

    Same with my neighbour except his RD:02/08/2012 PD: 02/25/2009

    Please help!!!
    Last edited by bhala5; 03-30-2012 at 03:14 PM.

  2. #6352
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    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    On a lighter note....who is playing Mega Million tonight

    Will remove this post by night.....

    Should We have Q led team for that and play ....our Soggadu , Nishanth , Teddy, Spec, kanmani,leo & rest of Q family anyone can join.....

    By the way if we win, we can buy our Green Cards in short time....
    Mega Million has a better probability than NSC processing our EAD/AP...

    The question I have is.... why would they setup a service center in Lincoln, Nebraska? Would any competent person be willing to go live in Lincoln, NE?
    SC: NSC | PD: 2nd-Oct-2009 |RD: 1-Mar-2012 |ND: 7-Mar-2012 | FP Notice: ?? | EAD/AP : ??

  3. #6353
    Once again I tend to agree with sportsfan33. By this year end, previous dates(May 2010) should come back to be current. All the information(such as more EB1s etc. etc. ) is very well known at the time of advancing the date to May2010 . Also CO had hinted long time back about possible retrogression in the coming months It shows that he had a plan.Time will tell!.

    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan33 View Post
    Thanks for your feedback spec. So our opinions differ by about 1 year right now. I would have agreed to yours if the EAD/AP were given out for 2 years. In fact, I was saying from the very beginning that they were collecting a 2 year inventory. However in light of the EAD/AP duration, I think this is a 1 year inventory only.

    You are right at the moment and I have nothing to go by but my gut feeling. It's possible that CO exaggerated about the demand and the EB1 usage. It's possible that a "lot of approvable" cases from 2007 and 2008 are approved already and the difficult ones will take 1 to 2 year anyway and their demand will be slow to show up. As I said, when I actually see the USCIS renewing EAD/AP for free, I will believe that they have too much demand and they overplayed their hand for no good reason.

    Disclaimer: Anyone who wants to make future plans should listen to spec and not me, because it is more likely that he is correct. If you still want to listen to me, you should also buy yourself a ticket for the mega lottery draw tonight for well over half a billion dollar pot.

  4. #6354
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    Quote Originally Posted by bvsamrat View Post
    Once again I tend to agree with sportsfan33. By this year end, previous dates(May 2010) should come back to be current. All the information(such as more EB1s etc. etc. ) is very well known at the time of advancing the date to May2010 . Also CO had hinted long time back about possible retrogression in the coming months It shows that he had a plan.Time will tell!.
    It's good to be optimistic but there's also a time to be realistic. They CANNOT make May 2010 current by Dec 2012. It's not numerically possible. It was fuzzy numbers till now but starting now, the DOS and USCIS are dealing with real numbers. Q said he would put an updated analysis in 2 weeks. Please read that.

    Dec 2012 === Sep 2008 PDs in a best case scenario (unless HR3012 becomes law)

  5. #6355
    Don't worry, even Texas is also too fast, I received my EAD cards yesterday, approved with in a month. Hope for the best.

    Quote Originally Posted by mbasense View Post
    redbull099 : i have been 'trackking' that list everyday, I have seen a lot of EAD approvals , one even came in today 03/30, but of late more of Neb. approvals are coming in, Texas seems to have slowed down. Anyway EAD/AP processing and approval must happen irrespective of 485 PD.

  6. #6356
    I beleive some changes are in the offing. Once again this my gut feeling and observation on what happened last 8-10 years

    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    It's good to be optimistic but there's also a time to be realistic. They CANNOT make May 2010 current by Dec 2012. It's not numerically possible. It was fuzzy numbers till now but starting now, the DOS and USCIS are dealing with real numbers. Q said he would put an updated analysis in 2 weeks. Please read that.

    Dec 2012 === Sep 2008 PDs in a best case scenario (unless HR3012 becomes law)

  7. #6357
    Quote Originally Posted by bhala5 View Post
    Hi Guru's ,

    I dont understand behind the logic how NSC issueing EAD/AP/FP's. Who applied after Me they got all but I dont get anything as of now. I want to book the flight ticket for my family since they were never see home country around 1275 days.
    We live in Bay Area because of that or which reason they are issuing AP/EAD/FP notices whoever applied after me.(TSC people all gets in hand same my date (help :trackitt)
    Whenever/whereever always delay after waiting long period of time, getting frustrated.

    What is my recived date in that case. please help !!!

    FYI..All applied same time .

    Acceptance
    On February 7, 2012, your fingerprint fee was accepted and we have mailed you a notice
    Initial Review
    On February 3, 2012, we received this I131 APPLICATION FOR USCIS TRAVEL
    Initial Review
    On February 3, 2012, we received this I765 APPLICATION FOR EMPLOYMENT

    PD: 02/25/2009 RD : 02/03/2012, ND: 02/08/2012: NRD: 02/14/2012.
    I already open SR asked to wait 15 more days from 03/18.

    Same with my neighbour except his RD:02/08/2012 PD: 02/25/2009

    Please help!!!
    relax bhala, you will get it. I didn't receive mine yet... waiting patiently for the 90 day mark to open SR...
    TSC || PD: 09/25/2008 || I-485 (RFE for Medicals & EVL): 05/30/2014 || RFE Response Received: 06/23/2014

  8. #6358
    Quote Originally Posted by bvsamrat View Post
    I beleive some changes are in the offing. Once again this my gut feeling and observation on what happened last 8-10 years
    Not to throw water on your hopes, but nothing will change unless there is change in law. EB2I&C have a wait time of 4-5 years to get GC, except for few lucky people who get in 3+ years that timeframe is going to continue. I dont want to discourage anyone but that is the what I've realised after waiting for 4+ years.
    NSC | PD: 12/12/2007 | RD: 01/17/2012 | ND: 01/20/2012 | FP Done: 2/28/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/7/2012 | EAD/AP Card : 3/9/2012| EAD Renewal: 2/15/2013 | GC CPO: 8/29/2013

  9. #6359
    I believe there is no good source for the % of PERMs that are EB2. I was digging through the PDFs on the DOL-ETA OFLC website and found the following two that might be relevant:

    http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/mod...et_6_27_11.pdf
    http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/mod...ual_Report.pdf

    The first PDF shows 37% + 4% of PERMs having MS or above. This is for a random sample of 22k active PERMs as of 5/31/2011. Not broken down by country. You could probably get a better upper bound by seeing what percentage of PERMs are IC as a % of total PERMs. You can then get an upper bound on EB2-IC % by assuming all the MS PERMs were IC. Or haircut it by whatever amount you think is appropriate. Either way, you get an estimate of EB2-IC as % of total PERMs certified.

    The second one is an older document but shows on pg 17 that abt 50% of Indian PERMs had a MS or higher and about 60% of Chinese PERMs. So I would probably assume a 50-55% EB2-IC PERM ratio closer to the 50% considering that Indian PERMs far exceed Chinese PERMs.

    Also curious what number for EB2% came out of this suggestion in this thread:

    12) Prevailing Wage Determination Data

    http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

    The latest addition to the disclosure list. Possibly useful in determining the EB2 to EB3 ratio, since it contains minimum education and experience requirements, but NOT Country data.
    It's a pain that we have to guess this crap. DoL has all the numbers cut by country of origin and education levels. Just release the damn thing already.

    I guess once we have the May demand data we will have a better sense of the OR and we can try to speculate what DD is if we use these numbers as estimates for the EB2%, Trackitt data for Dependent ratio and some other estimate for I140 approval rate (this last one is the weak link right now).

    This is fun! (Waiting for GC is not fun though - my PERM hasn't even been filed yet - will be later this year - but I like to know what I'm getting into. Let's hope HR3012 passes Senate).

  10. #6360
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    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    Also curious what number for EB2% came out of this suggestion in this thread:
    If you are referring to the PWD data, the results can be found here.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  11. #6361
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Friends following are my thoughts about the current situation.

    - Retrogression happening was a foregone conclusion however what is more important is the resting point by the end of Sep 2012.

    - By law only 54% numbers can be used in Q1 and Q2 so we still have the remaining 46%.

    - Next quarter another 27% are available so hopefully the approvals will happen again (01-APR) for EB2 I/C however in a more measured way especially from 01-May when retrogression will kick in. It will be really interesting to see the pace and the PD’s of the cases being approved in April this will be a key parameter in setting the retrogression point. As of now there are Oct filers still waiting without any kind of RFE (Some cases have been notified of additional review) & still a significant number of Nov & Dec Filers. I believe that the May bulletin retrogression point will not be as drastic as 15th Aug 2007.

    - There is another scenario wherein the 27% limit was actually exceeded because at the field level any case can be approved because the corresponding dates are current assuming no circuit breakers are in place if, in this case we should see very few EB2 I/C approvals in April and probably for the rest of the year as well.

    - The estimations from agencies have really revolved around extremes unfortunates as in demand being reported as too low and then all of a sudden it becomes too high, probably they have discovered the glitch in the Jan inventory.

    - EB2 ROW holds the key to our fortunes since Eb1 usage has been reported closer to the annual cap itself.
    http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html

    The Department of State (DOS) provided the Murthy Law Firm with confirmation today that, effective March 23, 2012, the EB2 cutoff date has been retrogressed internally to August 15, 2007. This means that the USCIS will not be able to approve further EB2 I-485 cases with priority dates that fall on or after August 15, 2007 at this time. These cases can be processed, but not approved, without visa numbers available.
    From Ron Gotcher - That rumor that has been going around has still not been confirmed on either the USCIS or AILA web sites. While it seems as though the government can do anything it wants these days, the law prohibits the use of more than 30% of the overall quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. Tomorrow is the end of the second fiscal quarter, so if they are following the law, they have not used more than 60% of the total quota.
    Friends Iam bumping my previous post up in light of the news and guidance by Murthy and Gotcher both noted law firms in their own right.
    Those with a PD of prior to 15thAug are PWMB cases, those cases which are in some kind of extended review or porting. I believe that there would not be more than 2000 such cases.
    The internal memo news setting the PD as 15th Aug 2007 can be taken to be as moderate to drastic, moderate in the sense that 1500 – 2000 is still a healthy number to approve if all these cases are approved in April itself it could be a drastic situation if indeed the haloed lines were crossed in approving cases in the first 6 months. Most initial estimates of SOAFD were in the 25K range and by even by liberal standards we have seen atleast 20K approvals.
    Now if indeed quarterly allocation limits are being adhered to then there are still at minimum 10K numbers left, DOS is normally cautious in moving dates and if this is true we could still have a pretty good ending likely somewhere in the Jan filers zone i.e. 15th Mar – 31st Dec 2008.
    So lets wait and watch what really happens in the first 15 days of April, approvals seem to have slowed down. EB2 ROW approvals are far more visible now.

  12. #6362
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Friends Iam bumping my previous post up in light of the news and guidance by Murthy and Gotcher both noted law firms in their own right.
    Those with a PD of prior to 15thAug are PWMB cases, those cases which are in some kind of extended review or porting. I believe that there would not be more than 2000 such cases.
    The internal memo news setting the PD as 15th Aug 2007 can be taken to be as moderate to drastic, moderate in the sense that 1500 – 2000 is still a healthy number to approve if all these cases are approved in April itself it could be a drastic situation if indeed the haloed lines were crossed in approving cases in the first 6 months. Most initial estimates of SOAFD were in the 25K range and by even by liberal standards we have seen atleast 20K approvals.
    Now if indeed quarterly allocation limits are being adhered to then there are still at minimum 10K numbers left, DOS is normally cautious in moving dates and if this is true we could still have a pretty good ending likely somewhere in the Jan filers zone i.e. 15th Mar – 31st Dec 2008.
    So lets wait and watch what really happens in the first 15 days of April, approvals seem to have slowed down. EB2 ROW approvals are far more visible now.
    Teddy,

    As always, thanks for your thoughts.

    I think your estimate for PWMB before 15AUG07 is about right.

    In addition, I think we also have to allow for 6 months worth of Porting cases. I still see those being approved on a regular basis and no reason for them to slow.

    Could you just clarify your numbers?

    If EB2-IC SOFAD is 25k and 20k have already been used, then that is 5k left.

    You mention at least 10k to come. Is that an allowance for EB1 probably providing 5k, despite CO's announcement?
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  13. #6363
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    Bi-Monthly Update

    Here's the Bi-Monthly update of applications added to Trackitt since October 1, 2011.

    -- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 -- Mar 31 - Change
    October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 ----- 152 (+_ 7 cases)
    November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 ----- 518 (+ 31 cases)
    December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 ----- 711 (+ 81 cases)
    January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 ----- 863 (+131 cases)
    February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 ----- 677 (+163 cases)
    March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 133 (+ 61 cases)


    This is the progress in graph form.
    Usage Graph Since Oct 2011_1.jpg
    Here is the breakdown by USCIS Receipt Date.

    USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March -- Total
    Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 8 -------- 6 --------- 4 -------- 3 ----- 43
    October VB --------------- 124 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 5 --------- 3 -------- 2 ---- 152
    November VB -------------------------- 446 ------- 55 -------- 7 --------- 5 -------- 5 ---- 518
    December VB ------------------------------------- 602 ------- 80 -------- 22 -------- 7 ---- 711
    January VB ------------------------------------------------- 737 ------- 116 ------- 10 ---- 863
    February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 611 ------- 66 ---- 677
    March VB -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 133 ---- 133

    Total -------------------- 135 ------- 473 ------ 667 ------ 835 ------- 761 ------ 226 -- 3,097

    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  14. #6364
    TeddyKoochu, I am glad you brought up the main point of this thread. What are predictions of getting GC for folks those PD comes after Aug 2007? According to your estimate, sep 2012 could bring us anywhere between march 2008-dec2008. It would depend on lot of factors as SOFAD, current I485 inventory before aug 2007 etc.
    But what are some of the estimates between oct 2012-sep 2013 and then oct 2013-sep2014? Based on average data from last few years on SOFAD, knowing EB1 less numbers, less numbers of 2008 fillings, can we make some estimates for 2012,2013,2014.

    Lets say that worst case average spillover is 10-15k/yr and only 3k for EB3 porting/yr.

    Is it safe to assume that EB2I could move from aug 2007 to nov 2008 by sep 2013 by 90% chance?

    Would that movement be happening something like this: Sep 2012 - PD nov 2007;;;; Oct-march 2013 - PD dec 2007;;;;;;March-June 2013 - PD march 2008;;;;; july-sep 2013 - PD nov 2008??? (+- 3months)

    Again in 2013, Sep 2013 - PD nov 2008;;;; Oct-march 2014 - PD dec 2008;;;;;;March-June 2014 - PD march 2009;;;;; july-sep 2014 - PD nov 2009???(+- 6months)

    This is just very anxious guesswork based on some experience of looking at PD movement in last 5 years.
    I know this is far fetched guesswork, but still we cannot deny trend seen in last several years, that is, no movement in beginning of fiscal year, but then movement in 4th quarter of fiscal year.

    Also, I used the 'new calculator' launched by Q, saw that my pd of aug 2008 would get currrent in May 2014, that made me worried because I read at other forums that it should be atleast 1 yr earlier than that.

    What would some of the gurus say about this.
    (Lets get back to guesswork which was sidetracked in last 4 months)

  15. #6365
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Teddy,

    As always, thanks for your thoughts.

    I think your estimate for PWMB before 15AUG07 is about right.

    In addition, I think we also have to allow for 6 months worth of Porting cases. I still see those being approved on a regular basis and no reason for them to slow.

    Could you just clarify your numbers?

    If EB2-IC SOFAD is 25k and 20k have already been used, then that is 5k left.

    You mention at least 10k to come. Is that an allowance for EB1 probably providing 5k, despite CO's announcement?
    Spec here are the details.
    Consumption = 20K.
    When the year stared Inventory showed 14K while demand data showed 8.5K. 11K is a good centrist number here and all these cases were approved around Oct - Nov 2011. The inventory does not even include CP but let’s discount that for simplicity. From early feb cases have been approved pretty much left and right I think even by liberal standards 9-10K approvals have happened. This pegs the consumption at 20K.

    Most centrist predictions at the beginning of the year suggested 25K SOAFD this year assuming it was 30K last year. So SOFAD left is 25K - 20K = 5K. Now if really 5K is what is left to come then it kind of justifies the Murthy update. 15t Aug 2007 is the PWMB qualification and those PWMB's who are left behind simply deserve GC on humanitarian grounds ASAP.

    Now what Ron is talking also makes sense assuming the quarterly allocation limits have been honored so we should still have 44% numbers left. Now despite the fact that EB1 will give nothing and Eb2 ROW is picking up, we have EB5. So if the first half gave 20K Sofad it might not be unreasonable to expect 10K coming from the second half largely being EB2 + EB5. CO is normally super cautious in moving dates being a responsible govt official, super generous sometimes!. This is all under the assumption that the haloed lines have not been crossed; honestly no one can be sure.
    So I believe the first half of April will be a true litmus test. Even RFE cases are not getting approvals now and EB2 ROW cases are finally picking up. Let’s wait and watch.

  16. #6366
    Quote Originally Posted by harapatta2012 View Post
    TeddyKoochu, I am glad you brought up the main point of this thread. What are predictions of getting GC for folks those PD comes after Aug 2007? According to your estimate, sep 2012 could bring us anywhere between march 2008-dec2008. It would depend on lot of factors as SOFAD, current I485 inventory before aug 2007 etc.
    But what are some of the estimates between oct 2012-sep 2013 and then oct 2013-sep2014? Based on average data from last few years on SOFAD, knowing EB1 less numbers, less numbers of 2008 fillings, can we make some estimates for 2012,2013,2014.

    Lets say that worst case average spillover is 10-15k/yr and only 3k for EB3 porting/yr.

    Is it safe to assume that EB2I could move from aug 2007 to nov 2008 by sep 2013 by 90% chance?

    Would that movement be happening something like this: Sep 2012 - PD nov 2007;;;; Oct-march 2013 - PD dec 2007;;;;;;March-June 2013 - PD march 2008;;;;; july-sep 2013 - PD nov 2008??? (+- 3months)

    Again in 2013, Sep 2013 - PD nov 2008;;;; Oct-march 2014 - PD dec 2008;;;;;;March-June 2014 - PD march 2009;;;;; july-sep 2014 - PD nov 2009???(+- 6months)

    This is just very anxious guesswork based on some experience of looking at PD movement in last 5 years.
    I know this is far fetched guesswork, but still we cannot deny trend seen in last several years, that is, no movement in beginning of fiscal year, but then movement in 4th quarter of fiscal year.

    Also, I used the 'new calculator' launched by Q, saw that my pd of aug 2008 would get currrent in May 2014, that made me worried because I read at other forums that it should be atleast 1 yr earlier than that.

    What would some of the gurus say about this.
    (Lets get back to guesswork which was sidetracked in last 4 months)
    Thanks for your detailed post. Quite honestly we should go about this year by year because every year is different and the subsequent year is kind of base-lined on the previous one, as of now even 2011 SOAFD has not been base-lined, but I do understand your question is perfectly justified. The prediction of Jan Filers getting GC this year is only possible if more than 10K numbers are there which is quite likely if only what Ron is saying is true the first 2 weeks of April will help us understand this most likely . If USCIS crossed the limits on approvals then we will fall far short of this. By Sep 2013 though Iam confident that all 2008 filers would be greened almost for sure though.

  17. #6367

    Lightbulb

    harapatta - I am still finetuning the SSFT. Right now please use it only to get a feel of what the tool is like. Should finalize the latest analysis by next weekend.

    As per your case - i am quite certain that Aug 2008 should get through by Sep 2013. The tool data needs to be adjusted - which will be done in 1 week.
    Quote Originally Posted by harapatta2012 View Post
    ...
    Also, I used the 'new calculator' launched by Q, saw that my pd of aug 2008 would get currrent in May 2014, that made me worried because I read at other forums that it should be atleast 1 yr earlier than that.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 04-01-2012 at 10:10 AM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  18. #6368
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    Teddy,

    Thanks for your reply.

    The other more dismal reason can be that if EB1 was expected to contribute the same numbers as FY2011 then 35k SOFAD was possible.

    54% of 35k = 19k (about the figure to date).

    If EB1 is not expected to contribute now, we only have the potential for 100% of about 25k, so not many total visas are left for the rest of the year. The majority will be used by PWMB currently remaining and Porting cases that become ready to adjudicate.

    I will say that I still do expect EB1 to contribute a few thousand. EB5 should contribute as well, but not that many this year.

    As you say, it is all speculation and the next couple of months will tell the story.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  19. #6369

    Post EB2 prediction estimate visibility for 2012 2013 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Thanks for your detailed post. Quite honestly we should go about this year by year because every year is different and the subsequent year is kind of base-lined on the previous one, as of now even 2011 SOAFD has not been base-lined, but I do understand your question is perfectly justified. The prediction of Jan Filers getting GC this year is only possible if more than 10K numbers are there which is quite likely if only what Ron is saying is true the first 2 weeks of April will help us understand this most likely . If USCIS crossed the limits on approvals then we will fall far short of this. By Sep 2013 though Iam confident that all 2008 filers would be greened almost for sure though.
    Thanks TeddyKoochu. I see your point of going year by year. This was just some higher level overview of movement since there are now ppl with PD upto May 2010 who are expecting things to happen in 2yrs timeframe. Just to bring more anticipaters onboard discussion.

    Thanks its encouraging to see that you said by Sep 2013, PD should be after Aug 2008.

    Anyways, If we assume that there are 5k-10k numbers in sep2012, than yes we should see significant date movement (upto mid 2008) in sep visa bulletin. But chances are low.

    What I dont understand is the movement after Sep 2012.
    Earlier dates were only moved in last quarter of fiscal year. This was because there was known inventory of I485 filled appls. Now with all the recent forward date movement,this is the same situation as in 2008-2010. USCIS has a lot of adjuncted I485 cases and know the normal visa supply in quarter. why wud they give spillover in early fiscal yr by doing guesswork.

  20. #6370
    Thanks Q for the clarification.

    I think the overall calculator is good great work and overtime should get better and better.

    It might be helpful to add worst, average optimistic scenarios at some later point. Some ppl, like me, just cannot control the curiosity.

    Also I wanted to get some visibility for next 6 months -1.5 yrs based on what we already know from past expernece minus last 4 months experience.


    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    harapatta - I am still finetuning the SSFT. Right now please use it only to get a feel of what the tool is like. Should finalize the latest analysis by next weekend.

    As per your case - i am quite certain that Aug 2008 should get through by Sep 2013. The tool data needs to be adjusted - which will be done in 1 week.

  21. #6371
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    If we had 5k left, wouldn't that be more than PWMB? I can't imagine there being that many even including porting cases.

  22. #6372
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Teddy,

    Thanks for your reply.

    The other more dismal reason can be that if EB1 was expected to contribute the same numbers as FY2011 then 35k SOFAD was possible.

    54% of 35k = 19k (about the figure to date).

    If EB1 is not expected to contribute now, we only have the potential for 100% of about 25k, so not many total visas are left for the rest of the year. The majority will be used by PWMB currently remaining and Porting cases that become ready to adjudicate.

    I will say that I still do expect EB1 to contribute a few thousand. EB5 should contribute as well, but not that many this year.

    As you say, it is all speculation and the next couple of months will tell the story.
    Spec in complete agreement with you.

    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    If we had 5k left, wouldn't that be more than PWMB? I can't imagine there being that many even including porting cases.
    Viz, the numbers left will have to be divided kind of between the 6 months that’s why the talk of internal retrogression in April and eventual in May is that drastic. So basically in the first month i.e. April there maybe only 1-2K available which may be enough just to satiate PWMB + Porting. We will definitely move much further by Sep 2012 and that is what will eventually matter.

  23. #6373
    Hello friends,

    I apologize in advance for posting this but there is some confusion that I need to clear.

    1) Can I change job after I get my EAD inspite of no of days are less than 180 days?

    2) Can I take part time / contract work while continuing my current job?

    3) Will my wife need an offer letter to apply for SSN?

    Any help is highly appreciated.


    Thnx
    SC:TSC; PD:07/2008; RD:01/03/2012; FP Date:02/10/2012; EAD&AP:02/15/2012 (1 YR); GC:?

  24. #6374
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Answers to the best of my knowledge inline.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheTexan View Post
    Hello friends,

    I apologize in advance for posting this but there is some confusion that I need to clear.

    1) Can I change job after I get my EAD inspite of no of days are less than 180 days?

    Yes, because the I-485 is for future employment. But if the I-140 is withdrawn before 180 days have passed, then it is over.
    2) Can I take part time / contract work while continuing my current job?

    Yes, assuming your terms of employment allow it, but you must use EAD as Employment Authorization for all jobs and you will lose your H1B status.
    3) Will my wife need an offer letter to apply for SSN?

    No. She just needs to present her EAD with the SS-5 application form to prove her eligibility for an SSN.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  25. #6375

    Thanks!

    Spec, thanks for the prompt response!

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Answers to the best of my knowledge inline.
    SC:TSC; PD:07/2008; RD:01/03/2012; FP Date:02/10/2012; EAD&AP:02/15/2012 (1 YR); GC:?

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