Teddy thanks a lot for your views, in times when the news is bad I always look forward to yours and Q's opinions and you guys always bring the much needed clarity to the gloomy scenario.Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy thanks a lot for your views, in times when the news is bad I always look forward to yours and Q's opinions and you guys always bring the much needed clarity to the gloomy scenario.
NSC | PD: 12/12/2007 | RD: 01/17/2012 | ND: 01/20/2012 | FP Done: 2/28/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/7/2012 | EAD/AP Card : 3/9/2012| EAD Renewal: 2/15/2013 | GC CPO: 8/29/2013
Sportsfan, Complaints from attorneys are mounting the USCIS with respect to the Eb1 rejections/Kazarian memo/ request for a change of policy, so this could be one of the reasons too.
Here are my 2 cents. I want to paint the worst case scenario and the best case scenario. Everyone is free to comment
Worst case Scenario:
USICS and DOL has developed an inventory and from now on stop all QSP and do what they have been doing after the 2007 debacle i.e. wait for quarter 4 to start the spillover. To top it, if they have exhausted the visa for 2012 then the next movement will happen in July 2013 visa bulletin. 16 months of wait from on guys.
Best Case Scenario:
Keep quite till Q4 of 2012, pre-adjudicate and start moving dates in Q4 of 2012. Do QSP in 2013.
Either ways I know I am not getting GC before July-August. I want it just as badly but I guess it is best to brace myself as I had done before. I lost the calm briefly thinking I will get it by april-may end but reality has to set it. The sooner I realize it better for me.
TSC |-| PD - 02/26/08 |-| MD - 01/04/12 |-| RD - 01/06/12 |-| FPND - 01/23/12 |-| FP - 02/14/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 02/016/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 02/22/12 |-| 485 Approval notice - TBD|-| GC RD - TBD|
PDMarch and all,
Moved the "Job Loss" discussion to a dedicated thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...p?753-Job-Loss
Will make that thread stick so that in future if somebody is in such unfortunate situation - can get some knowledge there.
p.s. - PDMAR - your tiger reminded me of "Shiv Sena" in maharashtra. They used to run these ambulance services under the name "Shiv Seva" and these ambulances would have the picture of such tiger heads!!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Not sure if this has been posted here previously but Ron Gotcher has something interesting to say about CP's in India: http://www.immigration-information.c...entry.php?b=49
Obviously the reality is its somewhere in the middle. I do believe that there will be movement in Q4 FY12 and again in Q1 FY13. Whether or not there will be QSP is anyone's guess. But i could see a scenario where we move 2-3 months in Q1 FY2013 and then maybe a month every or every other bulletin until we hit the Q4 SO season.
Based on trackitt data & assuming CO has not used more than 54% in Q1+Q2 below is my analysis based on trackitt data. Spill Over(SO) is for 7% of trackitt data.
---------- Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7% Total SO required for 7%(Pending)
Total----->2587 25870 28744 32337 36957
Approved->964 9640 10711 12050 13765
Pending->1624 16240 18042 20300 23200 23200
------Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7% Total SO required for 7%(Pending)
07 april pd- 5 50 55 62 71 71
07 may pd- 26 260 288 325 371 442
07 jun pd- 30 300 333 375 428 870
07 july pd- 47 400 522 587 671 1541
07 aug pd- 65 650 722 812 928 2469----->CO may be thinking that EB2IC might get 2K in Q3+Q4 which may change.
07 sept pd- 82 820 911 1025 742 3211
07 oct pd- 74 740 822 925 1056 4267
07 nov pd- 79 790 877 987 1128 5395------>5K SO clears till nov 07
07 dec pd- 96 960 1066 1200 1370 6765
08 jan pd- 119 1190 1322 1487 1699 8464
08 feb pd- 101 1010 1122 1262 1442 9906------>10K SO clears till feb 08
08 mar pd- 93 930 1033 1162 1328 11234
08 apr pd- 96 960 1066 1200 1370 12604
08 may pd- 98 980 1088 1200 1399 14003----->14k SO clears till may 08
08 jun pd- 92 920 1022 1150 1313 15316
08 july pd- 67 670 744 837 956 16272
08 aug pd-102 1020 1133 1275 1456 17728----->18k SO clears till aug 08
08 sept pd- 82 820 911 1025 1170 18898
08 oct pd- 76 760 844 950 1085 19983----->20k SO clears till oct 08
08 nov pd- 87 870 966 1087 1242 21225
08 dec pd-106 1060 1177 1325 1513 22738----->23k SO clears till dec 08
Visas used in Q1+Q2(EB1+Eb2+Eb4+EB5)=54k
Remaining for Q3+Q4(Eb1+Eb2+Eb4+Eb5)=46k
--------------------------------Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7%
Visas used by EB2IC for Q1+Q2 964 9640 10711 12050 13765
Now add 8000-EB2IC carried over from FY2011 as per Oct2011USCIS inventory
----------------------------------Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7%
Total Visas used by EB2IC for Q1+Q2 N/A 17640 18711 20050 21765
Visas Used by EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 N/A 36360 35289 33950 32235
EB2IC consumed 18k-22k(+/- 1k) visas in Q1+Q2
EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 consumed 32k-36k(+/- 1k)
Estimated Usage for Q3+Q4(EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 ) if Q1+Q2 trend repeats-->32k-36k(+/- 1k) SO to EB2IC-->14k-10k(+/- 1k)
According to CO's retrogression announcement no spill over from EB1 if EB1 Demand increases by 10K in Q3+Q4--assuming CO is correct, then EB2IC may get 2k-4k SO
Last edited by openaccount; 03-28-2012 at 04:58 PM.
Hi Gurus,
I already posted my situation but day by day it's taking turns.
To recap -
My PD is Apr 2010 EB2-I and I was eligible to apply I485 on Mar 1'st from IL location from where I have my PERM and 140 approved. My team is now being relocated to NY ( same company, same team, only location change ) and now my Manager in NY asking me to relocate by Apr end. My HR talked to Attorney and tried to convince my manager and asked whether I can stay until 180 days and move in September to NY but my manager is not convinced and so HR asks me to move by Apr end.
when I talked to attorney who did my PERM and she says that GC is for future position and I can be anywhere and so changing location now ( before 180 days ) is OK. But my HR talked to another Attorney who is little higher in position and she says that it is safe not to move. My HR says that they will not change the head count and legal entity until September and so by changing my postal address may affect and they say not 100% safe. I hear mixed opinions from them.
Initially we thought I can be anywhere and so applying 485 on March 1'st and move to NY by Apr end and then invoke AC21 on Sept 1'st should be good because there is no way I can get GC approved with in 180 days.
when my PD becomes current again I will be with same employer but different location but because I invoked AC21 it should be good.
But now they are saying that better to change the physical location after 180 days. so what do you guys think. I can do one thing that I can alone just do travel as my manager wants me in NY by May 1'st without moving my family and that way I don't need to change my address. my HR said they will not change headcount until Sept 1'st so USCIS may not know that I am working from NY.
there is another problem is that my H1B is due for extension by Aug 10'th and so not sure whether they can apply my H1B extension for IL locatin or they have to do for NY.
I am not 100% sure what do they mean by not changing the head count and legal entity ? need to ask my HR. may be they will change my payroll to NY or continue IL. not sure.
I have 2 options
Option 1) move by Apr end and hopefully by that time I will get my ead/ap and FP done and change my address using AR-11 and invoke AC21 in September and just fingers crossed and wait until my PD becomes current after retrogression. assumption here is that I am going by words that I can be anywhere while 485 is pending because in EVL they mentioned that I have intent to work from IL location. Just because I don't see approvall in 180 days changed location with same employer by invoking AC21.
Option 2) just travel between IL and NY until Aug end and don't change address and don't even do H1B extension. If H1B extension then try to do from IL and do amendement in September after I move permanently in September. may need to confirm with HR what does they mean by not changing head count and legel entity until September.
Please suggest.
Gurus, I am awaiting your suggestions.
Thanks much.
Hats off! Great analysis
Thanks Q. I'll keep you'll posted. I am glad the Tiger reminded you of something back home.
TSC | PD: 03/28/2008 | RD: 01/24/2012 | ND: 01/26/2012 | FP Done: 2/29/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/1/2012 | GC: ?
Your third option is to re-start your PERM and I-140 for NY. That being said, I'll comment on your two options
Option 1:
Theoretically this is do-able assuming your company is willing to say you are IL employee temporarily working in NY. After 6 months you can do use AC21 and officially change. That's what they mean when they say they won't change head count or legal entity. Remember, any change in the first 180 days needs new PERM, etc. so as long as the status quo can be maintained "on paper", you should be fine. The obvious risk by moving in May is any communication from USCIS will come to your current address. Using AR11 will change your address but if its in another state that will raise red flags. The safe thing to do would be to change your address to someone you know in the same town (close friend, relative, etc.). That way you will be aware of all communication from the USCIS.
Option 2:
This is also an option but a very expensive one. Traveling to-from NY and living here even for a few months really adds up. If you are doing this, you might as well have two residences - one in IL and one in NY .
Thanks viz for ur response, need to find whether my payroll will be on NY or IL when my HR says head count will not be changed. Why because my H1B need to be extended which expires on Aug 10. If I take option 1 by changing to relative address near to my current location or take option 2 by traveling not sure how they will do H1B transfer. May be I can ask them to do for IL first and do amendment after I move to NY officially in September. What do u think ?
And if I have to take option 3 as u mentioned by redoing PERM and 140 , can I use my AP and can my wife use EAD and AP which we get now in Apr/may until our next perm and 140 is applied until my date becomes current after retro ?
Any inputs Gurus ?
And if I have to take option 3 as u mentioned by redoing PERM and 140 , can I use my AP and can my wife use EAD and AP which we get now in Apr/may until our next perm and 140 is applied until my date becomes current after retro ?
Hi,
My application reached a lockbox facility a few days ago. I assume that we(not employer) will get the receipt number through mail. Is the received date(RD) same as the date on which the application reaches the lockbox facility ? Is the notice date(ND) same as the date on which we receive a receipt number from USCIS TX/NE office ? Also when does the 6 months clock start for utilizing AC21...Is it RD or ND ?
It will be great if someone can answer my questions.
Thanks
You will get the receipt numbers through USPS mail at your address - one envelope for each application type - 485, 756(EAD), 131(AP)
RD is when they received the application. I sent it on 2/1 and my RD is 2/2. My ND is 2/7.
I guess 180 days is from RD??
TSC | PD: 10-Apr-2009 | ND: 7-Feb-2012 | FP Notice: 15-Feb-2012 | FP Done: 8-Mar-2012 | EAD/AP : 22-Mar-2012
Thanks ..appreciate it..
NVC case complete, will Retrogress impact on Interview schedule?
I received my GC on Feb2012, EB2 India & my priority date is 29Aug2007, filed for my spouse GC through CP, spouse is in India, i-824 approved, NVC received the case on 13Mar2012, I received case# & Invoice# from NVC, I am about to pay the fee and submit DS-230 this week.
May2012 visa bulletin retrogressing to 15Aug2007, my priority date is 29Aug2007, how my case will be impacted?
if my DS-230 approved in April2012, is there any chance to get the interview?
Thank you.
Last edited by venoo_d; 03-29-2012 at 01:25 PM.
B22369, I had a similar issue last year - when our HQ was relocated to a different state from the location I was in and they shut down the old HQ operations totally. Back then my attorney suggested that I can move to the new location as long as the old location is still operational - and include a letter from the employer stating that my future employment is attached with the old location and I will be returning back to that location in future. In that case I don't have to go thru refiling PERM & I140. But unfortunately, that was not the situation and so they had to refile everything. I moved last Aug.
Your case seems a lot simpler - since your current location is and will be operational. Check with your attorney to see if something like this is possible and what it takes to get that done. I'm not sure how that would impact your switching jobs invoking AC-21 given the fact that the dates are moving back and it would be a while before you get your GC.
Hope that helps.
NSC || PD: 09-Jul 2008 || RD: 05-Jan-2012 || ND: 10-Jan-2012 || FP Notice:01-Feb-2012 || FP Appmt: 24-Feb-2012 || FP earlt walk-in completed: 09-Feb-2012 || EAD/AP Approved: 14 Feb 2012 || EAD/AP Card Rcvd: 21 Feb 2012 || I-485: 20 Mar 2012 || Cards in hand: 26 Mar 2012
DOS Confirms Lack of Enough EB2 India / China Visa Numbers
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html
Question to all experts!!..my PD Is Dec-16-2008, 485 Application was filed on Jan 20, USCIS wrongly rejected saying PD not current, Refiled on Feb2. Seems like my application is now buried in all Feb applications. Does USCIS Process based on PD or are they processing based on applications received? If its the latter, can I do something to push my application up in the queue?
Adios Amigos!!
will see you around 7th-8th May..
TSC | PD: 10-Apr-2009 | ND: 7-Feb-2012 | FP Notice: 15-Feb-2012 | FP Done: 8-Mar-2012 | EAD/AP : 22-Mar-2012
So just to put this in perspective -
a) People will be able to continue to file 485s through 30th April. They are NOT changing the April bulletin.
b) However we should not expect ANY EB2IC approvals between now and end of April.
c) May 1st onwards some trickle may come down depending on what's teh situation with rest of the world and EB1 in particular.
d) This overall confirms that Sep 2012 dates will hover around Q1 2008.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
If I understand the post, it effectively means no forward movement till October visa bulletin. Enjoy the summer and wait for the fall.
Someone in the DOS that I know very closely (I am from the DC area) vaguely hinted to me over lunch that govt does not particularly like giving GCs to Indians and Chinese so fast. They do believe that it is in their interest to keep them hanging. Please take it with a pinch of salt. It is just a test of our patience. They cannot deny it they can just delay it. Some would argue that Justice delayed is Justice Denied. Do not think that way and enjoy the summer with family and friends. We will all get it starting Oct or worst case next June.
Q, approvals will come but for only PD < Aug 15 2007 till Apr 30, after May 1 that is the date that is most likely going to be current so again approvals for only PD < Aug 15 2007. What I'm wondering is will they move dates starting in July or only in Oct. They are clearly throttling EB2IC, the question till when they will continue to do so. In a way this is good for people with PD < Aug 2007, they will get greened without losing visas to folks with PD of 2009.
NSC | PD: 12/12/2007 | RD: 01/17/2012 | ND: 01/20/2012 | FP Done: 2/28/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/7/2012 | EAD/AP Card : 3/9/2012| EAD Renewal: 2/15/2013 | GC CPO: 8/29/2013
My PD is JUL 31 2007. With reference to "point b)" above, In general, should I also expect to not to see any progress during april month. ofcouse anything can happen but just would like to see your opinion.
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