EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[gc4a_k]

Does anyone know what status is shown in USCIS web page when preadjudicated cases are held in the pending demand file. Does it say post-decision acitivity? Right now when I put in my I-485 SRC# it says status not found. It may take a year before I get my GC, but would love to know that my case has atleast been preadjudicated.

[self.coach]

My organization applied for 485 in Jan(RD ranging from 3rd to 5th) for 5 of us (PDs ranging from Apr-Sep 2008). Two of them got approved last week and the two got approval mails today Morning.

I am the only one left.... As I am happy for all four of them, but still so nervous and on the edge, Especially now that dates are set to go back in May, (as my wife says I am in a shell of my own). Picking up fights with everyone (especially the wife) on small matters or shouting/scolding the kids...

Wish there was some method to this madness for application processing at USCIS.

Be positive. Sometimes we view situations like these as problems, but in reality they tend to do some good one way or the other. I know it is easier to say this but in some weird way I have experienced it myself. Your kids, your wife, your family are permanent, this situation is temporary.

I'd like to apply the adage "dont make permanent decisions based on temporary emotions" here.....probably change it a bit to "dont let temporary aspects of life affect your permanent and certain aspects".

Remember what is in your own hands and focus only on that. We have all been through similar situations but believe me, things are not as bad as they seem to us. There are people whose cases have been denied, jobs lost and even bank balances shattered in the past few years - but all these aspects are still not as important as the well being of their family. My wife was in emergency last Sunday because she got extremely dehydrated after lot of vomiting (she is 7 months pregnant). When she was on I..V.. for about 5 hours in the hospital, and the two days after she came home, I didnt even care about why there were no updates on my EAD..it was simply not important enough to block my mind.

I love Q's approach - dont plan your life around GC (Q, you must make this the forum's motto). I have extended it to "Dont live your life around GC". I am frustrated myself that I will most likely miss out due to retrogression, but I know that I am not alone. There are hundreds of others, and then there are thousands on EB3 too who have been through these frustrations for years, and then there are many others who lost the opportunity to be in the US after getting here and more others who never recieved Visa in the first place to come to US. Putting things in perspective, you are better off than many other people in this world.

[Spectator]

Does anyone know what status is shown in USCIS web page when preadjudicated cases are held in the pending demand file. Does it say post-decision acitivity? Right now when I put in my I-485 SRC# it says status not found. It may take a year before I get my GC, but would love to know that my case has atleast been preadjudicated.

Certainly, until now, there has been no way to know whether a case is pre-adjudicated or not, unless an L2 officer happens to tell you. A pre-adjudicated case will still show as "Initial Review". I am not aware that this has changed.

I agree it would be a good idea (and fairly simple to implement) if the on-line system showed this status.

[goforgreen]

IMHO they dont have any intelligent plan around this. They thought demand was less so moved the dates ahead and now they think visas are less so are moving the dates back. When they moved the dates ahead they moved too much (moving till 2008 end was enough for this years SOFAD, though I'm happy for people getting EADs) and now when they moved back they have moved back too much (aug 2007 was current for last 5 months and most of the folks would have got GCs by now). This is using a sledgehammer to break a nut approach.

Also there is no way EB3 I&C can get spill over unless EB2 I&C are current.

My opinion: advancing 2 years in 2 months and going back to 4 years again-: To see how many EB2-485 applications(approved and pending) and then formulate some intelligent plan/approach on how to tackle other catagory-EB3. May be that, from now on the spill over of numbers will be distributed evenly to both catagories rather than giving majority to EB2 - so as to make EB3 also progress at some speed.

[vizcard]

My opinion: advancing 2 years in 2 months and going back to 4 years again-: To see how many EB2-485 applications(approved and pending) and then formulate some intelligent plan/approach on how to tackle other catagory-EB3. May be that, from now on the spill over of numbers will be distributed evenly to both catagories rather than giving majority to EB2 - so as to make EB3 also progress at some speed.

By law, EB2 will get all visa numbers and only if they cannot be used, they will Spill Down to EB3. The only way that would happen is if there was no demand for AOS+CP (which is impossible at this point in time). So EB3 is not going to get anything from EB2. You can take that to the bank

[vizcard]

Does anyone know what status is shown in USCIS web page when preadjudicated cases are held in the pending demand file. Does it say post-decision acitivity? Right now when I put in my I-485 SRC# it says status not found. It may take a year before I get my GC, but would love to know that my case has atleast been preadjudicated.

Certainly, until now, there has been no way to know whether a case is pre-adjudicated or not, unless an L2 officer happens to tell you. A pre-adjudicated case will still show as "Initial Review". I am not aware that this has changed.

I agree it would be a good idea (and fairly simple to implement) if the on-line system showed this status.

Spec
Wouldn't the online system show "Approved" under Decision. I know its not always reliable but theoretically that's what would happen. The Post-Decision activity would be CPO when you become current

[self.coach]

They should have moved back to Dec 2008 instead of Aug 2007.

IMHO they dont have any intelligent plant around this. They thought demand was less so moved the dates ahead and now they think visas are less so are moving the dates back. When they moved the dates ahead they moved too much (moving till 2008 end was enough for this years SOFAD, though I'm happy for people getting EADs) and now when they moved back they have moved back too much (aug 2007 was current for last 5 months and most of the folks would have got GCs by now). This is using a sledgehammer to break a nut approach.

Also there is no way EB3 I&C can get spill over unless EB2 I&C are current.

[vizcard]

IMHO they dont have any intelligent plan around this. They thought demand was less so moved the dates ahead and now they think visas are less so are moving the dates back. When they moved the dates ahead they moved too much (moving till 2008 end was enough for this years SOFAD, though I'm happy for people getting EADs) and now when they moved back they have moved back too much (aug 2007 was current for last 5 months and most of the folks would have got GCs by now). This is using a sledgehammer to break a nut approach.

Also there is no way EB3 I&C can get spill over unless EB2 I&C are current.

Its not that simple. There was no visibility in to real inventory or demand real time. CO had to advance it significantly to try to get enough applications in. Given historical processing times by USCIS, he couldn't take a chance of losing visas. By moving it 2+ years, he's hoping for enough low hanging fruit to use up quota along with the 2007 cases. Now since the processing rate has picked up, he needs to scale back. (Right from Dec/Jan, CO has been saying tht he might retrogress in May/June).

The reason he's moving all the way back to 8/2007 is to ensure that the earliest PDs get GCs first. .

[Spectator]

Spec
Wouldn't the online system show "Approved" under Decision. I know its not always reliable but theoretically that's what would happen. The Post-Decision activity would be CPO when you become current

vizcard,

I don't believe USCIS sees pre-adjudication as a "decision". The Decision status refers to a final decision on the case i.e. an Approval, as far as I am aware.

A pre-adjudicated case can still be subject to RFE before approval.

I don't think I have ever seen a case were a pre-backlog person had a Decision status because they were pre-adjudicated. A "Pre-Processed" status after "Initial Review" would make a lot of sense and save an awful lot of calls to the National Customer Service Center and Infopass appointments.

[vizcard]

vizcard,

I don't believe USCIS sees pre-adjudication as a "decision". The Decision status refers to a final decision on the case i.e. an Approval, as far as I am aware.

A pre-adjudicated case can still be subject to RFE before approval.

I don't think I have ever seen a case were a pre-backlog person had a Decision status because they were pre-adjudicated. A "Pre-Processed" status after "Initial Review" would make a lot of sense and save an awful lot of calls to the National Customer Service Center and Infopass appointments.

I agree. I think "Decision" and "post decision activity" is redundant.

[gc4a_k]

I agree. I think "Decision" and "post decision activity" is redundant.

Thanks Spec/Viz.

"A pre-adjudicated case can still be subject to RFE before approval."
i thought that once case is pre-adjudicated "allll is well".

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec/Viz.

"A pre-adjudicated case can still be subject to RFE before approval."
i thought that once case is pre-adjudicated "allll is well".

gc4a_k,

The most obvious one, if the case has been pre-adjudicated for a while, is a request for an EVL to ensure the job still exists.

[gc4a_k]

gc4a_k,

The most obvious one, if the case has been pre-adjudicated for a while, is a request for an EVL to ensure the job still exists.

yes and in some cases they call for an interview also (just read that in trackitt and murthy)

[self.coach]

Finally I got my EAD/AP combo card. It is valid for 1 year.

[PDNOV2007]

Q/Teddy/Spec and all the other Gurus -

Could someone please answer my question?

I am a Dec filer with PD Nov152007 and lost 100% confidence that i will get my GC before the retro happens in a month. Could you guys please tell me realistically when will i get my GC?

Is it at the end of 2012 or spring of 2013?

I really appreciate your response ...

[bieber]

Q/Teddy/Spec and all the other Gurus -

Could someone please answer my question?

I am a Dec filer with PD Nov152007 and lost 100% confidence that i will get my GC before the retro happens in a month. Could you guys please tell me realistically when will i get my GC?

Is it at the end of 2012 or spring of 2013?

I really appreciate your response ...

worst case October 2012, you will probably the first one to get once the fwd movement resumes in case u don't get it before retrogression

[PDNOV2007]

worst case October 2012, you will probably the first one to get once the fwd movement resumes in case u don't get it before retrogression

Thank you very much for your response

[Spectator]

Q/Teddy/Spec and all the other Gurus -

Could someone please answer my question?

I am a Dec filer with PD Nov152007 and lost 100% confidence that i will get my GC before the retro happens in a month. Could you guys please tell me realistically when will i get my GC?

Is it at the end of 2012 or spring of 2013?

I really appreciate your response ...

PDNOV2007,

I agree with bieber, if you don't get it before retrogression kicks in (and DOS might have stopped issuing visas already) then, realistically, it will become Current again in October 2012.

If EB1 do eventually provide some visas, then there is a chance in Q4 of this FY, but don't count on that happening.

[vizcard]

speaking of 2013, does anyone have any thoughts on SOFAD numbers for next year ? are we looking at 30-35k or is it going to be in the 20-25k range like this year?

[suninphx]

PDNOV2007,

I agree with bieber, if you don't get it before retrogression kicks in (and DOS might have stopped issuing visas already) then, realistically, it will become Current again in October 2012.

If EB1 do eventually provide some visas, then there is a chance in Q4 of this FY, but don't count on that happening.

I don’t know the process USCIS uses to request visa numbers. (as in in chunks of hundreds per quarter or so and how many days advance etc) but there was surely steady stream of approvals (on trackitt ) till last week. There is only one approval this week(yesterday) and number of approvals are may be thinning down. Would be interesting to see how things go once April starts before determining if DOS has stopped giving visas to EB2IC for remainder of FY.

[gc4a_k]

FYI...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[Spectator]

I don’t know the process USCIS uses to request visa numbers. (as in in chunks of hundreds per quarter or so and how many days advance etc) but there was surely steady stream of approvals (on trackitt ) till last week. There is only one approval this week(yesterday) and number of approvals are may be thinning down. Would be interesting to see how things go once April starts before determining if DOS has stopped giving visas to EB2IC for remainder of FY.

suninphx,

I agree we will know better when April actually starts, but there have been a few reports about no visas from March 23 onwards. I also base my speculation on what CO / USCIS actually said on March 23.

USCIS has informed Mr. Oppenheim that they will continue to “preadjudicate” adjustment applications received through April. The “preadjudicated” cases will be held by the State Department in the “pending” demand file.

That tends to suggest that there are no visas (or not many) to issue in April.

Let's see.

[self.coach]

FYI...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Thanks for the heads up. Not very surprised though, considering that retrogression was already sort of announced.

[Spectator]

FYI...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

There was another earlier report as well, but take it with the pinch of salt required for anything unconfirmed. It seems a little drastic to me.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ering/page/271

Posted by srijaggu
HI Guys,

Its bad News...I have follow up my case with senator office I got this response from them...

The visas have regressed since the issuance of the March and April visa bulletins for the EB2 preference. The number use in the Employment Second preference category increased dramatically during February, and has continued to do so during March. Current indications are that this pattern would continue if no action were taken. Therefore, effective Friday, March 23, 2012 it has been necessary to retrogress the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007. This action is being taken in an effort to ensure the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India who have not yet reached their annual limit. Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under their FY-2013 annual numerical limitation.

We have to wait for Oct 1st 2012..Hope for the best guys... :-)

[GCKnowHow]

I'm confused with the post in Trackitt.
Does it mean all EB2I visas were approved in first 2 quarters itself?

There was another earlier report as well, but take it with the pinch of salt required for anything unconfirmed. It seems a little drastic to me.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ering/page/271