EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[grnwtg]

Thats what i read from that person's post, if fellow Q'ers ( followers of Q's blog) agree average of 1500 to 2000 or taking 2000 count, dates might move till April'2008 to fulfil 2012 quota or chance to file EAD app.

Posts in the blog sounds similar to what we discuss here

while i am not certain that dates might move to jan/early april'08 in coming 2 bulletins, but i believe if USCIS follows rules these folks should be current by september'2012 bulletin ( not sure of getting green card though)

sandeep, he just says he expects 3 to 6 months movement in one or two steps, and although the Nov VB says movement may not be monthly norm all that, he says such movement in next Dec or Jan VB cannot be discarded.

Basically he is also not sure when it will happen, but he does think at least 3 month movement more will happen. He has put that analysis few days back on the 7th.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you. It does not make any sense to stop movement in the next VB.

But I do suspect that the next VB will be the last one for demand building purpose.

It's just my guess and nobody knows what he will do in the next few months.

It's impossible to predict Mr.CO, the most unpredictable man on earth!

and also btw, not just because I am benefited, but it just doesn't make sense to me that he does not do any movement at all in Dec VB, and totally just waits for a month to see the actual demand generated in November. I do think he will take into account the demand generated in November to give him a fair rough idea of how much a move can get in 3.5 months. I think he did 3.5 and not 3 or 4 for a reason, that reason holds the key. He probably wanted to go to the 1st of the month's from the 15ths. One can maybe theorize on that.

I think there would be a move, albeit smaller, in Dec VB, he must have divided his move for Nov VB into two parts, one for Nov VB, and one for Dec VB, and then by the time January, CO will have a very much calculated handle on the function of date movement and demand. He might do another small move, or pause, or retro, and then do surgical moves in ending Q3 or of course Q4 to issues GCs, as well as do a move in last most VB of Q4 to start building demand for FY 2013.

The way Nov VB was pushed out, it totally is obvious there was no meaning of demand data or other stuff, it was pre-planned and just literally pushed out quickly. The demand data for Nov VB looks totally hacked. One might say what will change in demand data for Dec VB ideally, maybe a few hundred, a thousand here and there.

[qblogfan]

I think your chance is so high that you shouldn't worry about it.

CM's blog is not reliable and we shouldn't put too much on his predictions. Frankly CM made many wrong predictions before.

Also his data looks like that he copied from this forum. I think he is a visitor of this forum.

Teddy......

My heart just sank looking at this post...... just kidding........my pd is in the first week of Dec 2007....hope it doesn't stop at Dec 1st..that would be truly disappointing though.....i understand we can only hope for the best

I wish the dates keep moving and most of us get to file 485....good luck everyone....

CM from 'us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com' updated his analysis for Nov VB. His analysis almost agrees with yours including numbers. According to him while we can anticipate smaller movements in Dec and Jan VBs there is a possibility that they could see no movement at all. This, he infers from the Nov VB notes for I/C EB2 that 'While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis'.



-Sandy

[qesehmk]

THREAD IS OPEN NOW.

PLEASE FOLLOW THESE GUIDELINES. Best wishes in your GC journey!

1. Only post thoughts relating to predictions in this thread. Either contribute a thought, challenge a thought, ask a question which leads to brainstorming.
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4. Use PM facility, and make friends as necessary.
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The more we keep this thread clean the more it helps everybody to get value out of it!!

[smuggymba]

Hi Q,
Before you delete this post, can you tell me where is the projection that you guys made based on PD', Spillover etc. Also,have you done analysis if country limit is removed? thanks.

[qesehmk]

where is the projection that you guys made based on PD', Spillover etc. Also,have you done analysis if country limit is removed? thanks.

Usually header is where you will find latest "opinions"/ "analysis".
I haven't done analysis on "what if". Spec Teddy may have. I leave it to others to answer that.

Can we thank people here?

Yes you can thank. But you get a strike for asking a redundant question... !!!!
Think from our shoes .... this is free service we are doing here. What I said above was to ensure that things remain valuable for everybody.
Unlike other sites we do not engage in deleting what people post. Only when it is really offensive we delete something. You use your own judgement to post what YOU think is valuable to you and others.

[immi2910]

good point. Some of the 70% EB2 PERM from 2007/2008 have already received their GCs and moved out of the queue. So, we need to look only at the incremental porters, i.e., porters from 2010/11 (original dates in 2007/8) - porters from 2007/08 (original dates in 2002/2003). Not sure that there is a way to estimate that amount.

I agree there will not be any way to estimate it. But if all things are equal then these numbers should cancel each other. In other words there are likely as many people who applied for PERM in 2007, 2008 with original (EB3) PD of 2004, 2005 as there are people who applied for PERM in 2010, 2011 with original PD of 2007, 2008.

CM has done some analysis on PERM data using prevailing wage (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html) to determine EB2 to EB3 split (72 to 28 for India & 46 to 54 for China). In addition he has also done analysis on India - China ratio in EB2 (on average it is 11 - 1 since 2008).

Therefore, EB2 I + EB2 C applicants / EB2-3 I + EB2-3 C applicants = 12/((11/0.72) + (1/0.46)) = 68.76% ~ 70%. I think this is a good estimate of EB2IC applicants, which coincidentally is what I used in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0253#post10253.

Now Spectator's SOFAD & Porting thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011) assumes EB2 IC %age at 60%. Now if we can get a calculation done with EB2 IC 70% with 0 porting, then I think we will get a closer approximation of what might happen.

Spectator can you please redo No Porting column assuming 70% EB2 IC applicants focusing on 2008 and beyond (assuming everyone in 2007 gets GC in FY 2012)? I would have done it myself but since all the numbers have been turned to images I would have to start from scratch.

[smuggymba]

Usually header is where you will find latest "opinions"/ "analysis".
I haven't done analysis on "what if". Spec Teddy may have. I leave it to others to answer that.

I saw it somewhere on this thread or maybe some other thread where you guys had projected the dates based on PD, Spillover and porting. I checked the first post and it's not there. What do you mean by header?

[suninphx]

Hello Spec,

When you get chance can you please have look at this question? Thanks.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0846#post10846

[nishant2200]

folks, including gcseeker, I am convinced now that we don't need to worry so much about increased masters degree holders for SOFAD impact from EB2 ROW. thanks for your input.

[qblogfan]

Also Chinese students in US graduate school increased 21% last year. Compared to year 2001 and 2002, the new number is about 3 times higher!

In one class I took recently, 40% of the students were Chinese and 30% were Indians. The white in my class were not happy about it.

One reason for this high number is because the US embassy relaxed the visa policy in China from 2005.

http://singularityhub.com/2011/09/13...nd-the-brains/

folks, including gcseeker, I am convinced now that we don't need to worry so much about increased masters degree holders for SOFAD impact from EB2 ROW. thanks for your input.

[mysati]

Guys,

My PD is Jan-2008 and my lawyer informed me today that my PD becoming current in Nov. bulletin is highly unlikely but gave no reason. My Co. does not let us correspond freely with the lawyers so I can't find out more from them.
Could there be any insider information they might be getting or it is from their interpretation of the wordings from the current VB? I do not want to arouse speculation but was wondering if anyone heard similar stuff from their lawyers?

[qblogfan]

I don't believe your lawyer has any insider information. I think they just want to find excuses to postpone and delay your GC application as much as they can. They know you will say goodbye to them after your GC.

Nobody knows how much VB will move next month. It's just a pure lie if your lawyer claims he has secret information from DOS.

Guys,

My PD is Jan-2008 and my lawyer informed me today that my PD becoming current in Nov. bulletin is highly unlikely but gave no reason. My Co. does not let us correspond freely with the lawyers so I can't find out more from them.
Could there be any insider information they might be getting or it is from their interpretation of the wordings from the current VB? I do not want to arouse speculation but was wondering if anyone heard similar stuff from their lawyers?

[Spectator]

Hello Spec,

When you get chance can you please have look at this question? Thanks.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0846#post10846

Really it is already explained in the header to the Calculation.

For 2007 PD 85% of 80% = 68%
For 2008 PD 90% of 80% = 72%

where the first % is applications remaining (i.e. allowing for a drop out rate over time) and 80% is the I-140 approval rate (i.e. a 20% denial rate).

It is the cumulative effect of those 2 assumptions.

[nishant2200]

mysati, in fact, per rdsingh79, fragomen (huge famous attorney corporation) has advised an applicant with Jan 4, 2008 to be ready with all documents in checklist, as they do expect him to be current soon.

Now that soon, is that one month or 6 months, they did not say I am guessing (rdsingh, correct me if wrong, we don't know exact wording of fragomen).

so there you have it, I would rather be ready and safe than sorry.

Guys,

My PD is Jan-2008 and my lawyer informed me today that my PD becoming current in Nov. bulletin is highly unlikely but gave no reason. My Co. does not let us correspond freely with the lawyers so I can't find out more from them.
Could there be any insider information they might be getting or it is from their interpretation of the wordings from the current VB? I do not want to arouse speculation but was wondering if anyone heard similar stuff from their lawyers?

[suninphx]

Really it is already explained in the header to the Calculation.

For 2007 PD 85% of 80% = 68%
For 2008 PD 90% of 80% = 72%

where the first % is applications remaining (i.e. allowing for a drop out rate over time) and 80% is the I-140 approval rate (i.e. a 20% denial rate).

It is the cumulative effect of those 2 assumptions.

Spec,
I get how you calculations are done.

My question was more towards why do you think that effective % of 2007 (68) is less than effective % of 2008(72). My thinking is that dropout rate for 2008 will be more given recession and no EAD protection. May be you do not think that to be a big factor.

Thanks anyways.

[nishant2200]

suninphx,

Spec has many times touched on this assumptions with us internally as well sometimes on the blog. We will only really be able to make the drop out factor more effective once we actually get data like demand data and pending 485 inventory report of the time period which just got current as well as some more which shall be current.

This is my thought on this.

Spec,
I get how you calculations are done.

My question was more towards why do you think that effective % of 2007 (68) is less than effective % of 2008(72). My thinking is that dropout rate for 2008 will be more given recession and no EAD protection. May be you do not think that to be a big factor.

Thanks anyways.

[mysati]

Thank you, QBF and Nishant!

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Spec has many times touched on this assumptions with us internally as well sometimes on the blog. We will only really be able to make the drop out factor more effective once we actually get data like demand data and pending 485 inventory report of the time period which just got current as well as some more which shall be current.

This is my thought on this.

Nishant,

Thanks for your thought. Not sure though how 'demand data and pending 485 inventory report of the time period which just got current' is going to help determine 2008 dropout factor. We need to still make assumption for that data. And my question was if we want to consider 'recession/EAD' factor or not in that assumption. (I am fine either ways but wanted to know if that has been considered).

[Spectator]

I agree there will not be any way to estimate it. But if all things are equal then these numbers should cancel each other. In other words there are likely as many people who applied for PERM in 2007, 2008 with original (EB3) PD of 2004, 2005 as there are people who applied for PERM in 2010, 2011 with original PD of 2007, 2008.

CM has done some analysis on PERM data using prevailing wage (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html) to determine EB2 to EB3 split (72 to 28 for India & 46 to 54 for China). In addition he has also done analysis on India - China ratio in EB2 (on average it is 11 - 1 since 2008).

Therefore, EB2 I + EB2 C applicants / EB2-3 I + EB2-3 C applicants = 12/((11/0.72) + (1/0.46)) = 68.76% ~ 70%. I think this is a good estimate of EB2IC applicants, which coincidentally is what I used in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0253#post10253.

Now Spectator's SOFAD & Porting thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011) assumes EB2 IC %age at 60%. Now if we can get a calculation done with EB2 IC 70% with 0 porting, then I think we will get a closer approximation of what might happen.

Spectator can you please redo No Porting column assuming 70% EB2 IC applicants focusing on 2008 and beyond (assuming everyone in 2007 gets GC in FY 2012)? I would have done it myself but since all the numbers have been turned to images I would have to start from scratch.

I need to understand what you are looking for and you need to specify all the assumptions for 2007 and 2008 PDs.

4. Following ‘factors’ are assumed for the figures:
60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain.
Overall, this means that 68% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2007 reach the I-485 stage and 72% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2008 reach the I-485 stage.

For instance the numbers will be very different if no denial or drop out rate is factored in, so it is important to understand your questions precisely.

PS - Sorry for the inconvenience about the images - it wasn't something I wanted to do, but the data was being used without giving due credit to the site. An unfortunate side effect is that genuine people also suffer.

[nishant2200]

well sorry I did not intend to say 2008 specifically, seems from reading ur post, you are interested in 2008 vs 2007 difference. You think 2008 will have big drop out.

I frankly can recollect various brainstorms amongst peoples, including spec, on this, and we all agreed on this concensus for now. I will let Spec reply further.

Personally I hope you are correct.

Nishant,

Thanks for your thought. Not sure though how 'demand data and pending 485 inventory report of the time period which just got current' is going to help determine 2008 dropout factor. We need to still make assumption for that data. And my question was if we want to consider 'recession/EAD' factor or not in that assumption. (I am fine either ways but wanted to know if that has been considered).

[Kanmani]

Nishant I agree with you in this drop outs calculation.

I also had a doubt that 2008 total I485 figures should be lesser than 2006 and 2007 figures, as I had a chance to personally see how our guys were laid-off , changing jobs , multiple perms . Infact my personal calculations reflect the same scenario taken into consideration and I differ by a total of 5000 IC lesser from Spec's chart.

But at the end of the day, we know very less and as per Spec's calculation and assumption we might get a negligible dropout total , thus he omitted in his calculations.

[Spectator]

Spec,
I get how you calculations are done.

My question was more towards why do you think that effective % of 2007 (68) is less than effective % of 2008(72). My thinking is that dropout rate for 2008 will be more given recession and no EAD protection. May be you do not think that to be a big factor.

Thanks anyways.

I've always tried to make it clear that these are my assumptions and they might well be wrong, but I don't think that has been taken on board.

My thinking is that more time has passed for applicants with a 2007 PD, so there is more chance that they have had to abandon the process. Equally, the numbers for applicants with 2010 PD would be minimal.

For me, they represent a point where I become equally concerned that they are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

If no factor is applied, the numbers generated seem outrageously high. I have learnt that potential applicants are very resilient and have an almost magical way of keeping their dream alive, even through very tough times. Don't underestimate that.

Hope that helps understanding where I am coming from.

I'll say it again - this is a very good debating point. I prefer some backing for figures rather than plucking them out of thin air, but I recognize that that is virtually impossible. I would caution against just wanting the figures to be lower, rather than that truly being the case.

I welcome and encourage debate about this by everybody.

Perhaps you want to kick it off by saying what a more representative drop out rate might be for people with PDs in 2008 (and 2007, 2009 if you like). I'm happy to report back the effect.

[nishant2200]

Kanmani, yes I am aware, you have repeatedly brainstormed on this and brought out your numbers, and consistently 5k less than the chart. I really hope your empirical experience turns out right. 5k can really make the day for almost movement of 3 months peoples.

Nishant I agree with you in this drop outs calculation.

I also had a doubt that 2008 total I485 figures should be lesser than 2006 and 2007 figures, as I had a chance to personally see how our guys were laid-off , changing jobs , multiple perms . Infact my personal calculations reflects the same scenario taken into consideration and I differ by a total of 5000 IC lesser from Spec's chart.

But at the end of the day, we know very less and as per Spec's calculation and assumption we might get a negligible dropout total , thus he omitted in his calculations.

[immi2910]

I need to understand what you are looking for and you need to specify all the assumptions for 2007 and 2008 PDs.



For instance the numbers will be very different if no denial or drop out rate is factored in, so it is important to understand your questions precisely.

PS - Sorry for the inconvenience about the images - it wasn't something I wanted to do, but the data was being used without giving due credit to the site. An unfortunate side effect is that genuine people also suffer.

4. Following ‘factors’ are assumed for the figures:
60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain.
Overall, this means that 68% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2007 reach the I-485 stage and 72% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2008 reach the I-485 stage.

Spectator, I would like you to change your first assumption from 60% to 70%, which I believe is a better approximation (see my earlier post for reasons - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...1016#post11016).

Additionally, I am interested in only the 1st column (no Porting) as I believe Porting will tend to cancel out again see my earlier post.

Finally, I only need it for applicants with PD of 2008 and later as I believe everyone with PD up to 2007 will get GC in FY '12. I believe your assumption is that only 90% of 2008 applicants remain. I do not have a better estimate on that number so please use that.