EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[nishant2200]

Next things to do is, Approximate or wait for UCSIS pending inventory reports, to find out how much pending inventory will be left accumulated for EB2IC after the retrogression. Will that be greater than 35k approx. I think that if he has already around 35k accumulated after retrogression, dates may not break the barrier in FY 2013. Dates should break the barrier in FY 2014. Of course the economy should still permit SO. Already this year we saw EB1 dry out per CO, this might be directly a result of the three fold increase in EB1-C that teddy pointed out from trackitt. And also the encouragement to EB5 as part of economic policy.

Gradual date movement should happen after retrogression, around the mid or end of FYs to adjust for SO by CO. Breaking the barrier means dates moving past 1st May 2010 to get more inventory.

Further bad news, but my gut feeling is CO will go back to his annual SO, instead of QSP, if he has made a handsome amount of inventory. But good news to balance this, the NVC fee notices have already gone out for 2011, so he may find a way to further build inventory next year and hold true to those notices.

This is bad ......i meant if the dates retrogress back to 2007....

anyway below is what Ron explanation was

"We knew that there would be a retrogression at some point. The unknown variable was the USCIS. For months, their production has lagged far behind what was needed to exhaust the annual quota. It appears that the Visa Office strategy of advancing cutoff dates in order to qualify more applicants at overseas consular posts has been successful. Also, it looks as though the USCIS has finally started to begin approving China/India EB2 cases at a much faster pace. This means that between the increased productivity by the USCIS and the significantly larger number of people applying at consular posts abroad, the annual quota will be exhausted and no visas will be wasted this year.

As for the severity of the retrogression, keep in mind that for every one additional case applying overseas, nine adjustment applications were filed. While the overseas cases will be resolved within a couple of months, those AOS cases will remain in inventory for years. This is a much smaller version of what happened in the summer of 2007. We will start seeing forward movement again in October. "

Hoping if it starts moving again from october, atleast by last quater of 2012 this backlog cases be approved...

[nishant2200]

His recent projection of SOFAD for this year was of 35K. Let me find out that post to see if there is any break down mentioned.

maybe he gave some from EB1 until now, but for future he is not giving any?

[suninphx]

maybe he gave some from EB1 until now, but for future he is not giving any?

Ya thats possible. Makes sense.

[immi2910]

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 (+ 11 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 (+ 33 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 (+ 90 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 (+132 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 (+146 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 (+ 72 cases)

More info here.

Especially for immi2910, a breakdown by USCIS Received Month.

USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March -- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 6 -------- 4 --------- 3 -------- 1 ----- 36
October VB --------------- 119 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 5 --------- 2 -------- 1 ---- 145
November VB -------------------------- 429 ------- 50 -------- 5 --------- 3 -------- 0 ---- 487
December VB ------------------------------------- 548 ------- 62 -------- 17 -------- 3 ---- 630
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 638 -------- 89 -------- 5 ---- 732
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 492 ------- 22 ---- 514
March VB --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 72

Total -------------------- 130 ------- 456 ------ 606 ------ 714 ------- 606 ------ 104 -- 2,616

Thanks Spec. I am humbled that you remembered this request.

[immi2910]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.c...9574#post69574

Wow, that is severe retrogression. I was predicting dates would settle around mid 2008 so much for predictions!

[qesehmk]

CO can retro to whatever date he likes today. But between now and Sep 2012, EB2IC will have to move forward around Q1 2008.

Then Oct 2012 onwards the dates will continue to move beyond Q1 2008 again.

Wow, that is severe retrogression. I was predicting dates would settle around mid 2008 so much for predictions!

[vishnu]

makes sense Q - the key is where things are as of the end of the FY.

[immi2910]

Agree that dates should start moving forward again from October, 2012 once FY2013 starts. However, the important question is how far the dates will advance and at what speed.

I am just trying to make sense of those NVC notices sent deep in to June, 2011. I know that once the fees for NVC notices are submitted, they will be valid indefinitely and will not expire but in general, people who have received NVC notices have become current within 6 months to 1 year and I really don't know why NVC notices will be sent out if dates are not expected to cover those PDs within few months of sending notices. The question is will the dates advance to Mid 2011 soon after the beginning of FY 2013 or is it going to move at a very slow pace (moving every few months each VB) and we may reach Mid 2011 by the end of FY2013 or it may go to FY2014.

Can someone throw some light on this?

It will depend if CO wants to do quarterly spill over (QSP) for FY 2013, which I do not think he will do.

Once USCIS releases inventory in May he will have a fairly good idea about EB2 IC demand but what he won't know is the spillover from EB1 and EB2ROW for FY 2013. So, CO is more likely to wait and watch rather than do QSP.

I am sure we will not see dates progressing beyond May 1, 2010 in FY 2013, which really irritates me because I was one of the person who had received NVC fee bill (PD June 2011) and was hoping dates will advance to that point before retrogression.

[qesehmk]

I would think somewhere around Q1 2008.

makes sense Q - the key is where things are as of the end of the FY.

[Kanmani]

I hope CO retrogresses to March 16 2008 as they have approved considerable numbers from Dec and Jan filers and people would go mad being unlucky after seeing his/her colleague with the same PD already approved .

[Jonty Rhodes]

So from the discussion, what I understand is that we should wait for I-485 inventory report which should be released in May, 2012 to see how many AOS petitions are pending. That would give us a better idea of the magnitude of forward movement in the future during this FY as well as next FY.

But again, is that I-485 inventory data going to be accurate enough? We all saw the I-485 inventory data released in January, 2012 which most of us agree was skewed. I hope it won't be repeated again. Otherwise this whole prediction thing is going to be a futile exercise.

[immi2910]

So from the discussion, what I understand is that we should wait for I-485 inventory report which should be released in May, 2012 to see how many AOS petitions are pending. That would give us a better idea of the magnitude of forward movement in the future during this FY as well as next FY.

But again, is that I-485 inventory data going to be accurate enough? We all saw the I-485 inventory data released in January, 2012 which most of us agree was skewed. I hope it won't be repeated again. Otherwise this whole prediction thing is going to be a futile exercise.

Since people eligible in Jan VB filed in Jan 2012 USCIS did not have enough time to include all those who had become current in Jan VB. I think the data was accurate for everyone up to Dec VB. Now as indicated by Spec's Trackitt analysis 90% of people file in the month they are current and remaining 10% in the second month. After that there are only handful of cases that file for AOS.

Now since there is no movement in Apr VB we can be sure that by end of Apr almost everyone who is eligible would have filed i.e. by end of Apr everyone upto May 2010 would have filed. Thus, when USCIS run the numbers in May 2012 we should have everyone in the system.

[Spectator]

Just some thoughts on what CO has said.

a) From how CO has defined it before, no spill down from EB1 means that EB1 and EB5 will use 50k between them. Even with increased processing, it doesn't seem likely that EB5 will reach 10k this year, so EB1 will probably exceed the 40k quota.

b) No spill down probably limits SOFAD to not much more than 20k. Normally, that might have allowed dates to reach about the end of October 2007. However, significant numbers of cases have been and will be approved with a PD beyond that date already, which drags the date back further. That limits how far ahead of August 2007 the dates could move before the end of the year.

Indeed, the date might not move at all. EB2-IC already seems to have breached the 20k barrier. I'm not sure CO can wait as long as the June VB to retrogress.

By the time the new FY starts in October 2012, USCIS will have a large number of pre-adjudicated cases, so forward movement will be limited by the expected QSP. Having used the EB1 "lie" for 2 years to justify movement, CO may not use it again.

On the bright side, the way that CO has moved the dates means that over 45k extra people have been able to submit their I-485 application and gain the benefit of AP and EAD. In addition, some children have been able to lock their CSPA age below 21 and will no longer age out. They no longer have to worry about losing H4 status when they turn 21 and either having to leave the USA or find another status and ultimately earn a GC on their own merits.

[qesehmk]

Great point by Spec.

On the bright side, the way that CO has moved the dates means that over 45k extra people have been able to submit their I-485 application and gain the benefit of AP and EAD. In addition, some children have been able to lock their CSPA age below 21 and will no longer age out. They no longer have to worry about losing H4 status when they turn 21 and either having to leave the USA or find another status and ultimately earn a GC on their own merits.

[TeddyKoochu]

- Post projecting 35K SOFAD this is a ball park projection over 12 months if the current rate of approvals is sustained. Note at this stage EB2 ROW which is our big hope has caught up. Now this logic would breakdown completely if the 56% limit for the first two quarters has been overshot. This level is also difficult without EB1 unless EB2 ROW totally collapses.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3047#post23047
- Post projecting NO SOFAD from EB1 because the Eb1 numbers on Trackitt are extremely high. I can’t find my later posts.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=7653#post7653
Spec thanks for posting Ron's comments with CO's intake. Really disappointing news. Realistically some really old time people pre Aug 2007 are left. A lot of factors will play in some people filed late, demand destruction and maybe higher filing via CP route. I have one question to you I kind of understand it’s hard to answer you commented that Trackitt representation has doubled, do you think that it is true even for EB2 ROW this is significant because that is our single biggest source for SOFAD, right now what we can bank on is EB5 - 6.5K and EB2 I/C - 5.5K = 12K. If EB2 ROW/M/P can provide another 20K which is possible if the ROW representation on Trackitt has also doubled then we can still expect 30K plus SOFAD and pretty much cover entire 2008 (01-Jan-2009) else we will have 7-8K lesser than this which would be ~ 25K this way significant number of Jan filers and those left behind will be bumped over to the next year. Trackitt in the past has shown a very close correlation for EB2 ROW, I personally believe that ROW representation there may have also increased there but 2 fold is a bit higher
Another approach is to consider it as 2 parts of the year. Part has given us ~ 20K SOFAD is set in stone and can’t be taken back. Part 2 can give us anywhere from 5 – 15K still this opens things to a wide range from Mar 2008 to Dec 2008 considering that we are in deep demand destruction zone.

[Spectator]

I have one question to you I kind of understand it’s hard to answer you commented that Trackitt representation has doubled, do you think that it is true even for EB2 ROW this is significant because that is our single biggest source for SOFAD, right now what we can bank on is EB5 - 6.5K and EB2 I/C - 5.5K = 12K. If EB2 ROW/M/P can provide another 20K which is possible if the ROW representation on Trackitt has also doubled then we can still expect 30K plus SOFAD and pretty much cover entire 2008 (01-Jan-2009) else we will have 7-8K lesser than this which would be ~ 25K this way significant number of Jan filers and those left behind will be bumped over to the next year. Trackitt in the past has shown a very close correlation for EB2 ROW, I personally believe that ROW representation there may have also increased there but 2 fold is a bit higher

Teddy,

I don't see any evidence that the EB2-ROW Trackitt % has changed at all. There is no event that might have caused it to, nor are there any figures to benchmark it against. With both EB1 and EB2-ROW there is always the elephant in the room of the increasing backlog. Any movement in that can affect the numbers significantly.

That is in contrast to EB2-I, where the rapid forward movement seems to have encouraged twice as many people to add their case to Trackitt and we could benchmark the Trackitt numbers versus the expected numbers. While that may not be perfect, it seems to work reasonably well.

The 20k SOFAD in my previous post would rise, if CO is not including EB5 figures when he said no spill down from EB1. Even if that is the case, it still isn't pretty and doesn't make much difference. The fact that CO is talking about retrogressing to August 2007, itself suggests that there aren't many extra visas available.

[geevikram]

This is messed up guys. I'm planning to get married in early may with a PD of Jul 2008. Don't know my odds of filing for 485. Any inputs?

[kd2008]

The talk from Mr. CO about retrogression indicates that USCIS has been once again able to pull wool over Mr. CO eyes and has not be transparent about demand and inventory. This is such a travesty and such a shame. Worse is the fact that nobody is going to bring USCIS to task.

Yeah, yeah, USCIS has processed a lot of cases fast, I know. So there is some hope.

But gosh! ...what an unreliable system.

[suninphx]

- Post projecting 35K SOFAD this is a ball park projection over 12 months if the current rate of approvals is sustained. Note at this stage EB2 ROW which is our big hope has caught up. Now this logic would breakdown completely if the 56% limit for the first two quarters has been overshot. This level is also difficult without EB1 unless EB2 ROW totally collapses.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3047#post23047
- Post projecting NO SOFAD from EB1 because the Eb1 numbers on Trackitt are extremely high. I can’t find my later posts.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=7653#post7653
Spec thanks for posting Ron's comments with CO's intake. Really disappointing news. Realistically some really old time people pre Aug 2007 are left. A lot of factors will play in some people filed late, demand destruction and maybe higher filing via CP route. I have one question to you I kind of understand it’s hard to answer you commented that Trackitt representation has doubled, do you think that it is true even for EB2 ROW this is significant because that is our single biggest source for SOFAD, right now what we can bank on is EB5 - 6.5K and EB2 I/C - 5.5K = 12K. If EB2 ROW/M/P can provide another 20K which is possible if the ROW representation on Trackitt has also doubled then we can still expect 30K plus SOFAD and pretty much cover entire 2008 (01-Jan-2009) else we will have 7-8K lesser than this which would be ~ 25K this way significant number of Jan filers and those left behind will be bumped over to the next year. Trackitt in the past has shown a very close correlation for EB2 ROW, I personally believe that ROW representation there may have also increased there but 2 fold is a bit higher
Another approach is to consider it as 2 parts of the year. Part has given us ~ 20K SOFAD is set in stone and can’t be taken back. Part 2 can give us anywhere from 5 – 15K still this opens things to a wide range from Mar 2008 to Dec 2008 considering that we are in deep demand destruction zone.

Thanks for quick post. Last point is great point. Nishant also mentioned similar thing. We might have got visas from all catagories till now and have already been allocated so can not be reversed. Getting another 7-8K visas from second half(just averaging the the range you stated) seems possible.

[gc2008]

CO can retro to whatever date he likes today. But between now and Sep 2012, EB2IC will have to move forward around Q1 2008.

Then Oct 2012 onwards the dates will continue to move beyond Q1 2008 again.

If people miss the boat this time, they may have to wait until the end of fiscal year 2013 for the dates to move again. We have been seeing the approvals ongoing basis this year as dates were current till this point and hence quarterly spill over happened. However, if retrogression happens, the scenario can be compared to pre October 2011 . They will have exact count of pending applications going forward and hence do only spillover during the last few months similar to what had happened till September 2011. So I guess we see dates moving only in last quarter of 2013 and not from October 2012.

[ontheedge]

Wow...what a dampner! With a PD of 3/15, having just missed filing in Dec....then seeing late 2008 approvals ....I was consoling myself that the end is in sight. Agree with KD2008, what a shame and what a hot mess! There is no process and no accountability.

Anyway, Teddy's post gives a ray of hope. Waiting another 6 months to get a shot at approval is not a fun thought

[qesehmk]

KD there may be conflicts in other places ... but in this case I see USCIS and DOS walking lockstep.

I think this is a well thought carefully orchestrated policy. Unfortunately it elevated expectations and now they are going to deflate them.

I think the reality will be better than their pessimistic projections. And reality was anyway going to be worse than the inflated hopes. That's why the focus on fundamentals is so important.

We need to ask what really happened to the demand? Has it really destroyed. Upto what extend. If as Spec mentions above, ROW demand hasn't seen destruction (Spec correct if Iamwrong ) then would the same be possible for EB2IC?

I personally haven't yet looked into DD. So honestly I cant answer. My hunch is DD is not as severe as it seemed based on dates movements. Otherwise there wouldn't be any talk to retro to Aug 2007.

The talk from Mr. CO about retrogression indicates that USCIS has been once again able to pull wool over Mr. CO eyes and has not be transparent about demand and inventory. This is such a travesty and such a shame. Worse is the fact that nobody is going to bring USCIS to task.

Yeah, yeah, USCIS has processed a lot of cases fast, I know. So there is some hope.

But gosh! ...what an unreliable system.

[mesan123]

Yes you are correct Kd2008.....
USCIS is still messed up....hope atleast they publish reasonable data in MAY(which i doubt )....atleast it gives us chance for predicting how future moment can be...

The talk from Mr. CO about retrogression indicates that USCIS has been once again able to pull wool over Mr. CO eyes and has not be transparent about demand and inventory. This is such a travesty and such a shame. Worse is the fact that nobody is going to bring USCIS to task.

Yeah, yeah, USCIS has processed a lot of cases fast, I know. So there is some hope.

But gosh! ...what an unreliable system.

[suninphx]

KD there may be conflicts in other places ... but in this case I see USCIS and DOS walking lockstep.

I think this is a well thought carefully orchestrated policy. Unfortunately it elevated expectations and now they are going to deflate them.

I think the reality will be better than their pessimistic projections. And reality was anyway going to be worse than the inflated hopes. That's why the focus on fundamentals is so important.

We need to ask what really happened to the demand? Has it really destroyed. Upto what extend. If as Spec mentions above, ROW demand hasn't seen destruction (Spec correct if Iamwrong ) then would the same be possible for EB2IC?

I personally haven't yet looked into DD. So honestly I cant answer. My hunch is DD is not as severe as it seemed based on dates movements. Otherwise there wouldn't be any talk to retro to Aug 2007.

As EB2ROW is always current ,I think demand desctruction concept is applicable for EB2IC really, in light of , people needing to change jobs and doing multiple filings(during recession), both husband/wife filing separate PERMS , people going back to home countries for better prospects etc. (specially post Aug 2007 with no EAD fallback , recession etc)

And honestly the DD and date movement got disconencted from Jan VB onwards. In no case date movement was going to relate directly with demand desctruction.

[mesan123]

As many of GURUS informed....just file your case....

i think you can add your spouse before your 485 is approved. on assumption that you apply end of april, if dates retrogress for may bulletion, then you can marry in may as you planned and bring your spouse and add her to your 485.....USCIS cant approve your case in one month if your date is not current....

Others can correct me if i am wrong.....

or if you want to wait...i think you will end up waiting for one year before your date again becomes current

This is messed up guys. I'm planning to get married in early may with a PD of Jul 2008. Don't know my odds of filing for 485. Any inputs?