EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kolugc]

Kolugc congrats and best wishes for future!

Thank you all for your compliments..!!!

I wish you all good luck...

I had been on many sites, but this site is the bible for me so far.... And I had seen a clean culture here... Awesome job guys...

[suninphx]

Kolugc - congratulations! I hope more and more 2007/08 cases get approval so that opens door for 2009 and onwards.

[eb2visa]

Congrats to all who got 485 approved.

I received my EAD receipts on 2/28, with received date of 2/21. I couldn't find the case status in USCIS - check my case status. It is saying the info not available. Is this common? Shall I need to contact the service center? I didn't received the Finger Print appointment yet.

[usernameisnotvalid]

My RD is 2/18 and I am still not able to check the status. don't worry they normally update it after your FP is done. I completed my FP on 3/8 and I am able to check status of AP for my kid only. Nothing for me and my wife yet - not EAD/AP case status.

Congrats to all who got 485 approved.

I received my EAD receipts on 2/28, with received date of 2/21. I couldn't find the case status in USCIS - check my case status. It is saying the info not available. Is this common? Shall I need to contact the service center? I didn't received the Finger Print appointment yet.

[khushraho]

^^

I can't see the case online even after FP..shall we get an email when it gets approved or everyday the status needs to be checked online?

[vizcard]

^^

I can't see the case online even after FP..shall we get an email when it gets approved or everyday the status needs to be checked online?

You will not get emails unless you register and sign up for emails and text msgs. So if y ou cannot see it online, thenyou wont get text msgs.r

[Spectator]

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 (+ 11 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 (+ 33 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 (+ 90 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 (+132 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 (+146 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 (+ 72 cases)

More info here.

Especially for immi2910, a breakdown by USCIS Received Month.

USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March -- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 6 -------- 4 --------- 3 -------- 1 ----- 36
October VB --------------- 119 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 5 --------- 2 -------- 1 ---- 145
November VB -------------------------- 429 ------- 50 -------- 5 --------- 3 -------- 0 ---- 487
December VB ------------------------------------- 548 ------- 62 -------- 17 -------- 3 ---- 630
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 638 -------- 89 -------- 5 ---- 732
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 492 ------- 22 ---- 514
March VB --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 72

Total -------------------- 130 ------- 456 ------ 606 ------ 714 ------- 606 ------ 104 -- 2,616

[Nov2010]

Based on this is there any change in prediction by end of Sept where we will stand in terms of Priority Date cut off?

[reachme_s]

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

Congratulations kolugc!! Enjoy your green life!

[TeddyKoochu]

Once again my sincerest thanks to all of you. I had posted my approval news on the post 485 news here. You guys are awesome

natvyas - Thanks my friend. You are amazing in spotting this so soon.
spectator- Thanks my friend, I kept my promise about updating my profile now part of your statistics so immensely useful to all of us.
suninphx - Thanks again my friend.
pdfeb09 - Thanks my friend. Really appreciate you posting the link to my post.
Jonty Rhodes - Thanks my friend.
veni001 - Thanks my friend from the old days. Man you and Spec have taken this thing to another level by those great perm calculations.
vizcard - Thanks my friend.

[happyme]

Hello,

Thanks members for the setting up and managing this wonderful forum.

This place is almost like a glass ball where at least I make out the trends and make some useful conclusions.
As pointed out before this is a clean forum with some good sense of humor.

This is my only contribution to this forum:
PD: 04/16/2008
485 application filed: January 2, 2012.
EAD Card: 2/16
CPO Card Production Ordered mail: 3/16/2012.

Thanks much

[Spectator]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.c...9574#post69574

AILA just posted this ("AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12031639 (posted Mar. 16, 2012)")

On March 16, 2012, at the AILA Midwest Regional Conference in Chicago, Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Visa Control and Reporting at DOS, informed participants that he will likely retrogress India and China-mainland born Employment-Based Second Preference priority dates to around August 2007, effective with either the May or June 2012 Visa Bulletin. He also advised that he projects that all EB-1 visas available in FY2012 will be used this year, resulting in no "spilldown" to EB-2.

[pdfeb09]

Hello,

Thanks members for the setting up and managing this wonderful forum.

This place is almost like a glass ball where at least I make out the trends and make some useful conclusions.
As pointed out before this is a clean forum with some good sense of humor.

This is my only contribution to this forum:
PD: 04/16/2008
485 application filed: January 2, 2012.
EAD Card: 2/16
CPO Card Production Ordered mail: 3/16/2012.

Thanks much

Congratulations .. Enjoy !!

[kd2008]

I am thinking the phones calls and emails to USCIS are going off the charts already to make sure cases are approved before retrogression.

[nishant2200]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.c...9574#post69574

This is really fresh news. thanks for posting. And thanks to Ron Gotcher for informing.

Guys who are current now and in April, apply or you might be PWMB. Folks who are not married may want to find a bride and get married soon!

[suninphx]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.c...9574#post69574

Thanks Spec for the link.
Were you expecting any spillover from EB1 in your calculations for this year?

[mesan123]

This is bad ......i meant if the dates retrogress back to 2007....

anyway below is what Ron explanation was

"We knew that there would be a retrogression at some point. The unknown variable was the USCIS. For months, their production has lagged far behind what was needed to exhaust the annual quota. It appears that the Visa Office strategy of advancing cutoff dates in order to qualify more applicants at overseas consular posts has been successful. Also, it looks as though the USCIS has finally started to begin approving China/India EB2 cases at a much faster pace. This means that between the increased productivity by the USCIS and the significantly larger number of people applying at consular posts abroad, the annual quota will be exhausted and no visas will be wasted this year.

As for the severity of the retrogression, keep in mind that for every one additional case applying overseas, nine adjustment applications were filed. While the overseas cases will be resolved within a couple of months, those AOS cases will remain in inventory for years. This is a much smaller version of what happened in the summer of 2007. We will start seeing forward movement again in October. "

Hoping if it starts moving again from october, atleast by last quater of 2012 this backlog cases be approved...

This is really fresh news. thanks for posting. And thanks to Ron Gotcher for informing.

Guys who are current now and in April, apply or you might be PWMB. Folks who are not married may want to find a bride and get married soon!

[venkat]

here is the complete agenda for that meeting

http://www.aila.org/content/fileview...&linkid=243654

They are going to talk about overseas visa rejections, employer-employee relationship etc

[natvyas]

PD: 24 Mar 08
MD: 10 Jan 12
ND: 18 Jan 12
FP: 8 Mar 12
NSC

I have called USCIS twice (last Friday and today) and on both occasions when I spoke to the someone, the gave me the standard BS about the processing time is 4 months etc etc and no particulars about either my Background/name check and nothing on the status of my case....

any ideas about how to break through their defence?

Cheers
Naitik

[nishant2200]

Thanks Spec for the link.
Were you expecting any spillover from EB1 in your calculations for this year?

Teddy was not for sure, based on his trackitt calculations and EB1-C usage, he had pointed out this earlier, I believe. Seems like whatever party we had so far was at the mercy of EB2-ROW.

[manubhai]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.c...9574#post69574

So he's only TALKED about it and not DONE it yet, but I guess this goes again to show that this forum (Spec and gang) is doing some serious calculations, and not just predictions. I'm glad Ron posted this, but I have to point out that I had not heard or seen any lawyer say that there will be a retrogression... all had been pointing to continuing advancement in PDs.

[tackle]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.c...9574#post69574

Great!

</sarcasm>

[Jonty Rhodes]

This is bad ......i meant if the dates retrogress back to 2007....

anyway below is what Ron explanation was

"We knew that there would be a retrogression at some point. The unknown variable was the USCIS. For months, their production has lagged far behind what was needed to exhaust the annual quota. It appears that the Visa Office strategy of advancing cutoff dates in order to qualify more applicants at overseas consular posts has been successful. Also, it looks as though the USCIS has finally started to begin approving China/India EB2 cases at a much faster pace. This means that between the increased productivity by the USCIS and the significantly larger number of people applying at consular posts abroad, the annual quota will be exhausted and no visas will be wasted this year.

As for the severity of the retrogression, keep in mind that for every one additional case applying overseas, nine adjustment applications were filed. While the overseas cases will be resolved within a couple of months, those AOS cases will remain in inventory for years. This is a much smaller version of what happened in the summer of 2007. We will start seeing forward movement again in October. "

Hoping if it starts moving again from october, atleast by last quater of 2012 this backlog cases be approved...

Agree that dates should start moving forward again from October, 2012 once FY2013 starts. However, the important question is how far the dates will advance and at what speed.

I am just trying to make sense of those NVC notices sent deep in to June, 2011. I know that once the fees for NVC notices are submitted, they will be valid indefinitely and will not expire but in general, people who have received NVC notices have become current within 6 months to 1 year and I really don't know why NVC notices will be sent out if dates are not expected to cover those PDs within few months of sending notices. The question is will the dates advance to Mid 2011 soon after the beginning of FY 2013 or is it going to move at a very slow pace (moving every few months each VB) and we may reach Mid 2011 by the end of FY2013 or it may go to FY2014.

Can someone throw some light on this?

[suninphx]

Teddy was not for sure, based on his trackitt calculations and EB1-C usage, he had pointed out this earlier, I believe. Seems like whatever party we had so far was at the mercy of EB2-ROW.

His recent projection of SOFAD for this year was of 35K. Let me find out that post to see if there is any break down mentioned.

[vishnu]

I dont understand a couple of things.

1) As Jonty mentioned, then why issue NVC fee notices out. I am PD Sep 2010 and have received them too.
2) They have already approved some 485s for 2008 PDs.
3) Why has he said he would retrogress in May or June. Why not just with certainity next month? Perhaps he wants to move dates significantly forward and then do a final retrogression back to 07?

Any insights from the maha gurus would be great.