Hearty congratulations, have a great weekend and very best wises for the future!Originally Posted by qblogfan
Hearty congratulations, have a great weekend and very best wises for the future!
Great Job...make lot of sense
Good work!
However, when dates are moving with leaps and bounds, shrinking gap between notice date and date when PD becomes current makes sense.
Congratulations qblogfan!!! Very happy for you.
TSC || PD : 12/23/2007 || RD: 12/01/2011 || ND: 12/05/2011 || FP Notice: 12/16/2011 || FP : 01/09/2011 || EAD/AP: 01/20/2012 || I-485 approval email: 02/26/2012 || GC card: 03/01/2012
Great Job, if this comes true most of us can get EAD
Congrats!!!!! finally all your pain will come to an end soon. Wishing in advance for a new job. I still remember how frustrated were you.
TSC || PD: Apr-2008 || RD: 17-Jan-2012 || FP: 27-Feb-2012|| EAD/AP: 28-Feb-2012 || I-485: Greened
As nice as this appears to be, it is highly unlikely that this drives date movement. This is a lagging coincidental indicator. Perhaps not even an indicator. I'm not saying that dates won't move to whatever date but if they move it won't be because of this. Personally I hope they do move at least another 5 months. My brother would get current.
PS: excellent effort in tracking down the data.
Congratulations QBF .. enjoy !
vizcard, who knows really? Both POV seem to be correct depending on how you want to think of it. I do not want to be harbinger of bad news, but if we track the actual bursts of movements, it started out with 3.5 months, then 4 months, then 9 and half months, then one year, and then 4 months, so if we follow the curve, the best case you would suggest for this next April VB would be something less than or equal to 4 months, and worst case but a possible case would be no movement. I don't think he will retrogress, but no movement is a possibility. USCIS approved low hanging fruits on a rapid pace, definitely to try to convince CO of their processing prowess.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
Congratulations qblogfan! So happy for you!
EB2I || TSC || PD: 12-Feb-2009 || RD: 02-Feb-2012 || ND: 07-Feb-2012 || FP: 06-Mar-2012 || EAD/AP: 08-Mar-2012 || I-485:
Vizcard, you stole my words.
Roshan, this is really an excellent work. One that must have taken a lot of efforts. It certainly gives us a historical view. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future gains !! The dates were proabably driven forward by other considerations. Although, there is a calculated anticipation on DOS's part while handing out the NVC notices, and therefore a reasonable expectation for them to make the dates current in a reasonable time, it is, however, not binding on them to follow the trend or to even make the dates current within a year.
I hope what you have found out holds true and the trend continues. It will make a lot of people happy. Heck, I wish they just made the whole darn thing current.
I agree with Nishant - i can totally see a scenario where CO holds movement for now and once he gets a better picture on SOFAD, starts issues Greencards and correspondingly moving dates forward by the reduced inventory. But this is more a Q4 event (July-Sep). I hope I'm wrong with a PD of Sep 2010 - but lets see...
With the demand data looking the way it does, I don't think CO would want to halt the movement. From his perspective, generating enough demand to cover the visa usage is a paramount concern, more important than how much work USCIS has to do. IMHO.
pdfeb09,
I agree that having enough demand is the most important concern for CO, but I also believe we are already way past that being a consideration.
Even with the Trackitt numbers to date (which are very incomplete for later VB), EB2-I has probably reached 25k new applications and EB2-IC is beyond 30k. That will include some porters and PWMB. The real figure is likely far higher than that.
Further movement isn't really going to help with demand equation at this point, unless a huge proportion of the existing cases from VB movements to date are either unapprovable or very difficult to approve. Also, movement of the COD generates so few CP cases for EB2-IC, it is almost inconsequential.
My perspective, anyway.
Last edited by Spectator; 03-09-2012 at 10:47 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Congratulations QBF! Very happy for you.
Spectator,
You are absolutely right about there being enough applications to cover the count. The question would be, how would CO justify halting the movement? From the technical point of view, would he not be compelled to move the dates under the pretext of getting more demand if he cannot "show" that there is enough demand now?
Would it not be a case where, even if CO can "see" the demand in future, he cannot "show" it technically? And in that case, be compelled to move the dates further?
I think there will be a small forward movement for a couple of months unless we exhaust the visas. It will give USCIS some time to work on the existing cases and not worry about sending out as many Receipts and worry about EADs and APs. This may create more 485s ready for approval (demand). This will continue until there is enough demand OR CO sees that the demand will not be generated in time to cover the annual quota and hence tries to be aggressive to cover his own side.
Bottom line:
1. I don't think the dates will halt or retrogress just yet.
2. I don't think there will be a big forward movement just yet.
I think May/June/July bulletins will be important bulletins, since Dec/Jan/Feb filers will start hitting the database by then and if Jan/Feb bulletins cannot generate enough demand (whether for lack of USCIS' capability OR demand destruction OR RFEs OR Denials OR whatever), then nothing short of making the dates current will suffice... OTOH if enough demand is generated, the dates will halt/retro during these months... I am betting on JUNE Bulletin IMHO..
I am still not clear about a lot of things that make up the process and therefore am very likely to say something stupid. Please correct me if I am wrong and pardon my mistakes.
Last edited by pdfeb09; 03-09-2012 at 11:28 AM.
pdfeb09,
If I were to play devil's advocate, I would reply as follows.
a) Part of the justification was a low rate of filing (information provided by USCIS). As a result of the Q1 figures released recently, that does not appear to be the case, so he can say filings are higher than previously estimated.
b) Part of the justification was also the slow processing speed by USCIS. That no longer appears to be the case.
As I said before, as far a date progression goes, I think CO will do what he wants to do - it is easy to justify a decision either way. The later we get into the year, if slow processing is a concern, the less likely that any new applications would reach adjudication.
All I am saying is that, while I hope the dates continue to progress, it wouldn't be a complete surprise if he halts the movement now. I don't think retrogression is a possibility at all.
Good luck to everybody.
Last edited by Spectator; 03-09-2012 at 11:22 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
qblogfan, many congratulations brother
I'm sure everyone on this forum is very excited to hear about your approval, there is an indian movie called K3G about family unions (definitely nothing to do with CO or GC) and you beat that here in a good way, enjoy the freedom
Apr Bulletin dates are on - 2026631541
EB2I/C didn't move.
Where is the bulletin?
EB2I/C didn't move.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
He gave the phone number, I think to listen to the bulletin. Nobody is picking up the phone when tried.
Last edited by kd2008; 03-09-2012 at 11:42 AM.
Bummer! So likely holding then till SOFAD season at the very minimum. Funny, a guy on Trackitt started a thread saying his contact told him dates would be unchanged and that bulletin would be out before noon EST
Whatever that number is for, CO just miffed me. It is about 17 minutes to 5pm in London and I need a beer.
I got thru the number and can confirm non movement.
One of my colleagues just confirmed this too.
TSC | PD - 1 May 09 | RD - 1 Feb 12 | ND - 6 Feb 12 | FP Date - 13 Mar | EAD/AP CPO - 3 Mar | 485 - Waiting
There are currently 6 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 6 guests)
Posting Permissions
