EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[mesan123]

Vizcard was not meaning anyone....just was trying to explain how the consulting is that all

Its not for me. I'm the primary and I'm all set. This is my wife's employer. Ofcourse, it may be not worth the hassle but I wanted to get the info. I also want to see what paperwork she signed when she took the job.

[usernameisnotvalid]

That is true for H1b fees - all those gov. fees and taxes but employer can recoup attorney fees etc. Ours is a big company and before filing any extension we do receive a letter through mail (so, it is perfectly legal)from HR which we need to sign. It is basically an H1 pay back letter.

The company is responsible for all H1 Expenses. If you report to DOL, that your employer charged you H1B expenses, they will be in lot of trouble. I hear that some desi consulting companies had to shut shop because of this. Just shoot an email to your employer mentioning this and they will give the money back in no time....

[usernameisnotvalid]

My situation was little different but I did the same thing. I went to Canada by car for one day. The officer at the check-post saw my passport but did not take I-94. I knew it that this was very important, So I told him to take because I need new I-94 on entry. That's it. He took it and when I came back next day, I got new I-94 but had to go through all finger printing and other stuff. Make sure you carry as many documents with you as possible :-)

OFF TOPIC - Automatic Visa Revalidation
I am in strange situation - came on H1B back in 2006, working in EVL model since then - PD is current in March 2012. One of my employer (had many) did not file LCA when I moved from MA to NJ - this was more than 180 days. Attorney is advising me to go out and come back before filingin I-485. He is asking me to use AVR rule to come back.

I'm bit confused. I found on many threds that they normally do not give new I-94 - will returning on AVR be considered as lawful entry and will that reset my so called forced unauthorized work for AOS purposes?

[meetasn]

I completed 6 years in USA. So My h1 Extension will be based on AOS?
If I apply My H1B normal process now(Before my h1 Expiry(03/16/2012) it will take at least 3- 5 months for approvals? Based on the trend 2 Jan fillers already are getting GC's(My PD is 22 April 2008).
If GC is approved my h1 will be rejected, because, I have GC approved
If GC is not approved, then also my H1b will be rejected, since H1B is based on I-140(completed 6 years stay in US).
Only thing I can do is apply H1B in premium or live on EAD? Please suggest.

[mrdeeds]

Can you elaborate on this? Link ? My wife had to pay back her H1 expenses. So if this is indeed true, then maybe she can recoup some of that.

Viz see http://www.murthy.com/h1bfaqs.html#22

Question 22.

If your wife signed an agreement agreeing to repay any expenses in lieu of staying x number of years, I am not sure about the legality / applicability of the above. My guess is that the company may have a right there to recover the costs but still not completely sure.

[vizcard]

Viz see http://www.murthy.com/h1bfaqs.html#22

Question 22.

If your wife signed an agreement agreeing to repay any expenses in lieu of staying x number of years, I am not sure about the legality / applicability of the above. My guess is that the company may have a right there to recover the costs but still not completely sure.

It wasn't the "stay for x yrs" deal.

It was " it costs x all inclusive. We will deduct y from every paycheck until its paid off. "

[TeddyKoochu]

Demand data for April bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Looks like there will be more forward movement to generate demand. Good luck to everyone for the bulletin.

[kd2008]

Thanks, Teddy.

As long as there is no retrogression or rapid processing by USCIS (as in many times the current processing speed), the demand data will look like this each month. The movement if any will still be at Mr. CO's discretion I guess.

[tackle]

Thanks, Teddy.

As long as there is no retrogression or rapid processing by USCIS (as in many times the current processing speed), the demand data will look like this each month. The movement if any will still be at Mr. CO's discretion I guess.

I think you are right. Looks like EB2-I will be current soon.

[mrdeeds]

It wasn't the "stay for x yrs" deal.

It was " it costs x all inclusive. We will deduct y from every paycheck until its paid off. "

Then you have a case to recover atleast the fees referenced in the murthy faq above imo. And I wouldn't phrase it as 'recovering' but put it as 'there is some misuderstanding. Legally, we cannot.....and let's not jeopardize your status or ours'.

[gc_usa]

EB2 IC will be current in APRIL 2012. Go enjoy ! My gut feeling.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Totally agree. With this kind of demand data - there has to be a forward movement.

Demand data for April bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Looks like there will be more forward movement to generate demand. Good luck to everyone for the bulletin.

[mesan123]

Q , Teddy or other Guru's

how long do you predict the moment can be ( i know this guess would be only based on gut feeling not based on the inventory, as the data is not complete). but ur guesses will be reasonable than many of us... ....

Teddy

Totally agree. With this kind of demand data - there has to be a forward movement.

[raj888]

Teddy

Totally agree. With this kind of demand data - there has to be a forward movement.

Pls see the explanation by Spec as to why this demand data does not indicate forward movement or retrogression!

======================
What Does the Demand Data represent?

I see lots of misconceptions about what the Demand Data shows.

There are many comments that say that looking at the Demand Data will give a guide to how much the Visa Bulletin will progress or whether retrogression is likely.

If you understand what the Demand Data is, you will see that neither is possible at the moment.

The figures in the Demand Data represent the number of documentarily qualified cases where a visa request has been made, but the visa has not yet been allocated. It is just a Pending file for cases where a visa request has not, or cannot, be actioned.

Let's understand when a case becomes documentarily qualified, when a visa is requested, and when it is allocated.

(a) For Consular Processed cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when NVC requests a visa after Packet 4 information has been received and the interview date is set.

Between that time and when, the interview actually takes place, the visa is pending and adds one to the Demand Data total.

If the interview is successful, then the visa is consumed. If the interview is not successful, it is returned to the pool. In both cases, the Demand Data total is reduced by one.

(b) For AOS cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when USCIS adjudicate and approve the I-485 case. At this point they request a visa from DOS.

Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one.

If the PD is Current, which it is for all EB2-IC I-485 cases in the system at the moment, the visa is allocated and used immediately. The Demand Data total remains unchanged.

For all the new applications that USCIS have received since October 2011, with an average processing time of 4-6 months, virtually none will have reached the stage of being adjudicated. For those few that have (such as Veni's), the visa request was granted immediately because the PD was Current, leaving the Demand Data total unchanged.


Only when Cut Off Dates retrogress can the Demand Data figures for EB2-IC increase.

In this situation, if USCIS request a visa for a case with a PD that is no longer Current, then it will be added to the Demand Data total.

Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.

The few cases shown in the Demand Data at present almost certainly represent Consular Processed cases, where the visa has been pre-allocated, but an interview has not yet taken place.

Look at EB2-ROW. It has always been Current. The maximum amount I have seen from a quick look at past Demand Data is the 130 in the latest version.

When the Demand Data for March 2012 is published, don't expect it to be much different from the February 2012 one. If the dates don't retrogress in the March VB, the April one won't be either.
===========================

[nishant2200]

Demand data for April bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Looks like there will be more forward movement to generate demand. Good luck to everyone for the bulletin.

But also unless there is retrogression, demand would not accumulate in this report. I think, correct me if wrong.

[suninphx]

Demand data for April bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Looks like there will be more forward movement to generate demand. Good luck to everyone for the bulletin.

I wonder why they even bother to publish this?

[skpanda]

I think u r forgetting that EB3 demand data is also in the document.

I wonder why they even bother to publish this?

[vishnu]

i think it gives them some sort of legitimacy though to move dates?

[mrdeeds]

So re-reading Spec's explanation above and looking at the demand data published over the last couple of months, is it safe to say that the demand data mostly reflects only the CP cases whose interview date has been set but not been conducted yet. In essence, the quota reserved for the interviewees?

[TeddyKoochu]

But also unless there is retrogression, demand would not accumulate in this report. I think, correct me if wrong.

It should be the other way if demand accumulates in the report then we can expect retrogression.

Thanks, Teddy.

As long as there is no retrogression or rapid processing by USCIS (as in many times the current processing speed), the demand data will look like this each month. The movement if any will still be at Mr. CO's discretion I guess.

USCIS processing rate is the key it has to be in the range of the monthly available numbers. Looks like right now they are doing an optimum job and DOS will continue to give them more work by moving dates forward.

[tackle]

tackle, your turn hasn't come yet? Did you contact them?

I called USCIS this morning (this is the first time I tried calling) and all they said was that TSC is processing applications from April and that I'll need to wait. I asked if I could get any information on background-check and was said "no". I didn't bother asking them to transfer me to L2. From the way things are looking, I don't think there'll be any change to our application status anytime soon. I just hope they still have our applications and did not "misplace" them.

[Spectator]

But also unless there is retrogression, demand would not accumulate in this report. I think, correct me if wrong.

nishant,

That is exactly correct. I tried to explain it previously.

The Demand Data is exactly as I would expect it, given that the Cut Off Date is still Current for all possible EB2-IC AOS cases which USCIS might adjudicate.

The Demand Data will become useful for EB2 after retrogression, since it will give some idea of how quickly USCIS are pre-adjudicating cases after the new Cut Off Date and the numbers involved. Until then, it is still very useful to follow EB3, where all cases are retrogressed.

[nishant2200]

That's a very valid reasoning, but it assumes that DOS has a hard limit internally set on the visa issuing system, meaning current date period does not mean infinity.

So now, one can say retro shud not happen. Worst case those who are current shud remain so, best case CO discretion how much to move.

If above is true. DD can be either ways, I am not totally convinced. It does seem reasonable though that DOS have facility to set limits on numbers in their issuing software.

It should be the other way if demand accumulates in the report then we can expect retrogression.



USCIS processing rate is the key it has to be in the range of the monthly available numbers. Looks like right now they are doing an optimum job and DOS will continue to give them more work by moving dates forward.

[suninphx]

I think u r forgetting that EB3 demand data is also in the document.

Ya missed that. My bad.

[Spectator]

It should be the other way if demand accumulates in the report then we can expect retrogression.

Teddy,

Demand from AOS cases cannot accumulate in the report as long as the Cut Off Dates remain Current for any EB2-IC case USCIS might adjudicate. The case only becomes documentarily qualified at the point of approval. In that case the visa is issued and consumed immediately, never hitting the Demand Data.