EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kd2008]

Spec, thank you explaining!

[kd2008]

Kd, this document dated April 2006 is prior to the policy change .

Thanks for pointing that out. It is interesting that GC could be revoked later. Rather scary.

[Spectator]

Due to extensive backlog in FBI name check, there was a USCIS policy change happened during Feb 2008 , USCIS started approving cases including I-485's without FBI name check clearance, as long as I-485 has been pending for more than 180 days .

http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrele...aq-20feb08.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

USCIS is currently approving cases with FBI finger printing check + IBIS check cleared. FBI will be doing name check in their own pace . If they find any hit in the name check they will revoke GC and physically remove the beneficiary.

Kanmani,

That policy only lasted a year and was superseded in February 2009 by this Memo.

Currently, if a name check is still pending after 150 days, the case is referred to USCIS HQ, who will liaise with the FBI to determine the cause of the delay. After this, the Adjudicating Officer will be given case-specific instructions on how to proceed, including the possibility to approve the I-485 before the name check results have been completed, if it is deemed appropriate.

[soggadu]

guys i know it is wrong forum.... but just in case if anybody knows....

Need a travel companion for MomInlaw from HYD to new jersey during march... please let me know if you know of anyone...

[iamdeb]

This is Ron Gotcher reply regarding NVC Fee Bill Received (PD June 14 2011).

"The NVC gets a "heads up" from the Visa Office every month as to anticipated cutoff date movement six months out. The NVC then sends fee bills to all qualified applicants who have priority dates earlier than the estimate given by the Visa Office. This is not an exact science, but generally they are pretty close. "

I guess the PD should reach June 2011 by end of this year. Appreciate any comment on this.

[sweta.shetty]

Assuming PD will reach June 14, 2011 within a year, is based on predicating a huge demand destruction and less filings for i485, which by the numbers being computed doesnt sound to be true.. Not sure what is missed.

[kd2008]

Assuming PD will reach June 14, 2011 within a year, is based on predicating a huge demand destruction and less filings for i485, which by the numbers being computed doesnt sound to be true.. Not sure what is missed.

The inventory can be built up when and however Mr. CO deems fits. Yes, more applications may be accepted within a year. It does not mean visas will be issued within a year. The inventory accumulation is disconnected and separate from I-485 processing, adjudication and approval - approvals depend on visas available and speed of USCIS processing. Please read last few pages for more details.

[narendarrao]

This is Ron Gotcher reply regarding NVC Fee Bill Received (PD June 14 2011).

"The NVC gets a "heads up" from the Visa Office every month as to anticipated cutoff date movement six months out. The NVC then sends fee bills to all qualified applicants who have priority dates earlier than the estimate given by the Visa Office. This is not an exact science, but generally they are pretty close. "

I guess the PD should reach June 2011 by end of this year. Appreciate any comment on this.

Can someone help me understand what they mean by mentioning "Correct Time" in the following answer.

How Does the National Visa Center Fit into the U.S. Immigration Process?
After the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) approves your immigrant visa petition, the USCIS forwards your petition to the National Visa Center (NVC) in Portsmouth, NH for immigrant visa pre-processing at the correct time. Immediate relative categories, do not have yearly numerical limits. However, family preference and employment immigrant categories have numerical limits each year; and therefore, wait times are involved, which can be lengthy, for processing to be able begin, as explained below.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigra...ypes_1309.html

[mrdeeds]

Please try to understand that the date movement and the approvals are coupled only following a retrogression, and not during inventory build up. The mid 2008 date is for if and when a retrogression happens. As seen from the NVC notices upto June 2011, retrogression may not be the plan, or not needed depending on USCIS speed of processing. Retrogression is needed only if USCIS asks for more visas than available and not because it is sitting on a large pile of applications. Remember, even after July-2007 fiasco, the dates moved to Aug 2006 in Aug 2008 as there were not enough approvable cases because most were stuck in FBI checks. If you look at EB2ROW approvals on trackitt they are all over the place even for cases that were filed in the same month. Somewhat similar trend is expected for EB2IC in future.

Thanks KD for the clear explanation and Spec and others for expanding on it!

KD, I get what you are saying but can you please hypothetically explain how retrogression might be avoided in today's scenario? I understand things may stall for a little while but I am unable to visualize a scenario where the USCIS processing moves in a manner that is in lock step with CO advancing / steadying the dates without retrogressing. It seems their approvals have picked up considerably recently. It seems only a matter of time when the demand shows up at VO.

[la_2002_ch]

Finally got the EAD and AP approval mails today!!! Exact 2 months after the RD.

huge step for my wife as now she can now put her Dental Degree from India to some use and apply to the "Select Dental Schools" which only take Permanent Residents/future Permanent Residents with atleast EAD approved into their International Dentist Programs.

For me now the wait for next 4 months so I can change jobs on the 181st day of RD.

Nopt able to post on the Post 485 Filing thread as for some reason its closed!

[mesan123]

yeap Post 485 Filing thread is closed dont know why ?

[kd2008]

Thanks KD for the clear explanation and Spec and others for expanding on it!

KD, I get what you are saying but can you please hypothetically explain how retrogression might be avoided in today's scenario? I understand things may stall for a little while but I am unable to visualize a scenario where the USCIS processing moves in a manner that is in lock step with CO advancing / steadying the dates without retrogressing. It seems their approvals have picked up considerably recently. It seems only a matter of time when the demand shows up at VO.

We do not have data to figure out exact scenarios. Picking up of approvals means nothing in this context that Spec and I were talking about - the approvals have to consume all available visas and then ask for some more. The visa demand has to exceed the quarterly allocation to trigger retrogression. We believe that this will happen eventually triggering retrogression if the processing pace is kept up. But USCIS has not been consistent with its processing - at least in the past. Just look at the slowdown for EB1 and EB2ROW - though it has picked up somewhat recently. So anything can happen. Hence what I was talking about was an unlikely, hypothetical scenario where USCIS processes just enough cases to consume visas but not exceed the quota which in turn results that there is no retrogression. Spec has said that it would be, in all eventuality, out of USCIS's ability to finesse processing in this manner.

[mrdeeds]

We do not have data to figure out exact scenarios. Picking up of approvals means nothing in this context that Spec and I were talking about - the approvals have to consume all available visas and then ask for some more. The visa demand has to exceed the quarterly allocation to trigger retrogression. We believe that this will happen eventually triggering retrogression if the processing pace is kept up. But USCIS has not been consistent with its processing - at least in the past. Just look at the slowdown for EB1 and EB2ROW - though it has picked up somewhat recently. So anything can happen. Hence what I was talking about was an unlikely, hypothetical scenario where USCIS processes just enough cases to consume visas but not exceed the quota which in turn results that there is no retrogression. Spec has said that it would be, in all eventuality, out of USCIS's ability to finesse processing in this manner.

Got it, Thanks for the response and reasoning!

[rtekkam]

Folks..a couple of questions...appreciate any responses

1. Is it FIFO once we apply for the EAD, AP and I-465?....Reading posts, i gather that is the case

2. Usually how is the FP appointment date given..meaning does it usually depend on the PD date OR are FP notices sent out on a FIFO basis?

3. Post FP..how long is the wait t get the EAD/AP?

The reason I ask this 'cos a friend of mine applied a week before I did..I got the FP notice ...and he did not...so was curious how this works.

my PD Date is 06/10/2009 and his PD is 11/7/2009 for India EB2

[leo4ever]

@rtekkam,

I think FP date depends a lot on SC and RD. NSC is slow with FP dates comapred to TSC. Do you know which SC is processign your friends appl?

Folks..a couple of questions...appreciate any responses

1. Is it FIFO once we apply for the EAD, AP and I-465?....Reading posts, i gather that is the case

2. Usually how is the FP appointment date given..meaning does it usually depend on the PD date OR are FP notices sent out on a FIFO basis?

3. Post FP..how long is the wait t get the EAD/AP?

The reason I ask this 'cos a friend of mine applied a week before I did..I got the FP notice ...and he did not...so was curious how this works.

my PD Date is 06/10/2009 and his PD is 11/7/2009 for India EB2

[Kanmani]

Folks..a couple of questions...appreciate any responses

1. Is it FIFO once we apply for the EAD, AP and I-465?....Reading posts, i gather that is the case

2. Usually how is the FP appointment date given..meaning does it usually depend on the PD date OR are FP notices sent out on a FIFO basis?

3. Post FP..how long is the wait t get the EAD/AP?

The reason I ask this 'cos a friend of mine applied a week before I did..I got the FP notice ...and he did not...so was curious how this works.

my PD Date is 06/10/2009 and his PD is 11/7/2009

FP appointments depend on combination of factors like I-1485 receipt date, availability of appointment slot at nearest ASC, filing at TSC/NSC etc . Approval takes atleast 60 to 90 days from the RD of EAD/AP

Did you both file at same service centre?
You guys live in same zip code ?

[rtekkam]

FP appointments depend on combination of factors like I-1485 receipt date, availability of appointment slot at nearest ASC, filing at TSC/NSC etc . Approval takes atleast 60 to 90 days from the RD of EAD/AP

Did you both file at same service centre?
You guys live in same zip code ?

Ok...receipt dates of mine were a week after his...same Svs Center TSC..only difference is he's from the DC area and mine is from the Phila area. Just was wondering if cases like mine could be considered "low lying fruit"...being a Physician and friend in IT

[bieber]

Ok...receipt dates of mine were a week after his...same Svs Center TSC..only difference is he's from the DC area and mine is from the Phila area. Just was wondering if cases like mine could be considered "low lying fruit"...being a Physician and friend in IT

May be the ASC in DC area is busier than the one near you, I think LLF could be the case too, regarless if your FP is done you can be in LLF group but sending the notice out itself based on LLF is kind of stretch

[srimurthy]

interesting and my case is the same with wife on the same background. And after going through all the options gave up the dental school option and looking for something in life sciences area and waiting to file for EAD to take next steps.

Finally got the EAD and AP approval mails today!!! Exact 2 months after the RD.

huge step for my wife as now she can now put her Dental Degree from India to some use and apply to the "Select Dental Schools" which only take Permanent Residents/future Permanent Residents with atleast EAD approved into their International Dentist Programs.

For me now the wait for next 4 months so I can change jobs on the 181st day of RD.

Nopt able to post on the Post 485 Filing thread as for some reason its closed!

[rtekkam]

May be the ASC in DC area is busier than the one near you, I think LLF could be the case too, regarless if your FP is done you can be in LLF group but sending the notice out itself based on LLF is kind of stretch

Thanks!..its true...could be a stretch based on the FP notice...should probably not read too much into this. Thanks guys!

[imdeng]

Kanmani - based on Trackitt data, approval time for EAD/AP seems to have sped up at least for TSC. I think, for TSC, 30-50 days from RD is a good estimate while for NSC it is 45-65 days. Of course there are a few outliers but most of the cases seem to fit in that window.

FP appointments depend on combination of factors like I-1485 receipt date, availability of appointment slot at nearest ASC, filing at TSC/NSC etc . Approval takes atleast 60 to 90 days from the RD of EAD/AP

Did you both file at same service centre?
You guys live in same zip code ?

[la_2002_ch]

interesting and my case is the same with wife on the same background. And after going through all the options gave up the dental school option and looking for something in life sciences area and waiting to file for EAD to take next steps.

Well ours is one last try to a couple of schools who prefer only GC holders or applicants whose GC processing is at the very last stage. Hoping something good comes out of it. Otherwise, she is also searching the alternate areas. Being myself in the IT field, when I married a dentist I had never thought my career moves will jeopardize hers.

[bieber]

I am the master of my fate. I am the captain of my soul

In our case, CO could be clint eastwood?

[kd2008]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g..._Febr_2012.pdf

PERM factsheet as of 03/05/12.

Approvals in Feb = 2000

It is for Feb 2012 but it says Jan inside. In addition, till Jan 12,350 were approved. So if in Feb 2012, 2000 applications were approved then FYTD 2012 should move to 14,350 but it has moved only to 13,640. Some strange math.

[idiotic]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g..._Febr_2012.pdf

PERM factsheet as of 03/05/12.

Approvals in Feb = 2000

It is for Feb 2012 but it says Jan inside. In addition, till Jan 12,350 were approved. So if in Feb 2012, 2000 applications were approved then FYTD 2012 should move to 14,350 but it has moved only to 13,640. Some strange math.

The footnote says the data is only a snapshot and should not be used for trending analysis. Just my 2 cents.