EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[veni001]

Thank You veni001 In that case, as per the released PERM data of Q1 FY2012, aren't EB Mexico and Philippines cases really low or have they been approximately the same in every quarter of every year? If they are low only in this quarter, would that mean that there will be more spillover from them?

CleanSock,
The number of ROW-M-P PERM certifications (matter of fact all PERM certifications) per quarter are decreasing over the past year.

You can see FY2010-FY2011 data comparison in post #2553.

Below are PERM certifications for ROW-MP for last 5 quarters

FY2011 - Q1 - 8,023
FY2011 - Q2 - 7,222
FY2011 - Q3 - 5,355
FY2011 - Q4 - 4,542
FY2012 - Q1 - 3,805

I believe, due to low EB2ROW-MP demand CO is able to apply quarterly spillover.

[CleanSock]

Thanks for the clarification veni001. I now understand it better

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

As I was going through the FY2012 Q1 PERM Data, Access Files.
Last column, CLASS_OF_ADMISSION, might be the field we can use to find probable porting cases. ( not 100 % though).
As I observed few of cases, where Porting cases are either blank or PAROLEE. it is not H1B.

Thank you
Tatikonda.

[imdeng]

Very interesting Veni. The decline in ROW numbers are astounding especially when you consider that numbers for C are falling too and I is the only one holding steady and growing even. This shows that we may get significant fall-across spillover this year.

Below are PERM certifications for ROW-MP for last 5 quarters

FY2011 - Q1 - 8,023
FY2011 - Q2 - 7,222
FY2011 - Q3 - 5,355
FY2011 - Q4 - 4,542
FY2012 - Q1 - 3,805

I believe, due to low EB2ROW-MP demand CO is able to apply quarterly spillover.

[rasknorr]

May be this has been posted already but does this data helps us in predicting any thing?

http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-c...b.-15-2012.pdf

[rookie]

Hi Everyone -
I need your advise on a current situation of my I-140 case. My PD is 7/2011 and got my PERM approved during Oct 2011 under EB-2 and filed 140 (regular-NSC) on Nov 2, 2011. Till today there has been no movement at all except for a soft LUD on Nov 8, 2011. As I can see that the normal processing time for 140 at NSC is 4 months and in my case, it has just crossed that timeline. What option would be a best move at this point?

- Follow up with attorney and open a SR.
- Upgrade to premium.
- Wait (as my PD is not going to be current atleast till the end of this FY). Will I be able to file 485 if my PD becomes current and 140 still pending?

Situations that are making me to worry are the I-140 approvals of my colleagues who filed 10-15 days (around Nov 15) later than me and we all have the same profile & experience (F1-H1). On the other side, looking at their approvals without RFE builds some confidence.

Please help!

[rookie]

Thanks Kanmani

[vizcard]

Hi Everyone -
I need your advise on a current situation of my I-140 case. My PD is 7/2011 and got my PERM approved during Oct 2011 under EB-2 and filed 140 (regular-NSC) on Nov 2, 2011. Till today there has been no movement at all except for a soft LUD on Nov 8, 2011. As I can see that the normal processing time for 140 at NSC is 4 months and in my case, it has just crossed that timeline. What option would be a best move at this point?

- Follow up with attorney and open a SR.
- Upgrade to premium.
- Wait (as my PD is not going to be current atleast till the end of this FY). Will I be able to file 485 if my PD becomes current and 140 still pending?

Situations that are making me to worry are the I-140 approvals of my colleagues who filed 10-15 days (around Nov 15) later than me and we all have the same profile & experience (F1-H1). On the other side, looking at their approvals without RFE builds some confidence.

Please help!

As Kanmani points out, you can wait for a week or so before any follow up. You CANNOT file a 485 without an approved 140. I can say with a good bit of confident (thanks to the math here), that you will be not current in this VB.

[kd2008]

USCIS dashboard updated!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

[Spectator]

USCIS dashboard updated!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

At last!!

I've been checking since the 21st when it is normally updated.

[idiotic]

You CANNOT file a 485 without an approved 140.

I do not think this is right. You can file 485 while I-140 is pending.

[mesan123]

I-140 and 485 can be filled concurrently right? if the dates are current.....rookie need not wait for I-140 approval for filling 485 if he becomes current.

Viz, I believe, Once current, rookie can file I-485 even before I-140 approval ( with a I-140 receipt notice) .

Gurus please comment .

[rookie]

After looking at Viz reply, I started reading about concurrent filing. Looks like one can file for a 485 when PD is current, even with a pending 140.

Again, Gurus please comment.

[suninphx]

After looking at Viz reply, I started reading about concurrent filing. Looks like one can file for a 485 when PD is current, even with a pending 140.

Again, Gurus please comment.

If your I140 is still pending when your date becomes current then upgrade that to premium. Dont stress too much on this. You will be fine.

Meantime check with your lawyer if you can file with I140 pending.

[veni001]

USCIS dashboard updated!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Thank you KD2008,

Updated appropriate threads in FACTS AND DATA section with FY2012-Q1 data.

[mesan123]

yes you are right...

After looking at Viz reply, I started reading about concurrent filing. Looks like one can file for a 485 when PD is current, even with a pending 140.

Again, Gurus please comment.

[fedupwithgc]

yes you are right...

The EB2 ROW people always apply concurrently as they are current, so Yes you can apply 485 when 140 is pending. They even get EAD/AP before I140 approval but it gets invalid if 140 is denied.

[vizcard]

After looking at Viz reply, I started reading about concurrent filing. Looks like one can file for a 485 when PD is current, even with a pending 140.

Again, Gurus please comment.

You can file concurrently IF you are current. My response was due to the fact that you were not current.

[aGCHopefull]

Hi Gurus,

I have been the quiet reader on this forum for long time and am amazed by your knowledge on the matter. You guys are superb and really doing a great job. Hats off to you!!

I have a question (this may be off the topic though)

When my PERM and I-140 was filed, my job title was "Senior Developer" but my employer had filed the PERM (& I-140) as "Project Manager". When I got the promotion, my title was changed to "Technical Manager". The job duties are still the same but title is different than in PERM/I-140

My question is:
1. When we file I-485, will this cause a problem?
2. If yes then what can we do to avoid this? Any supporting documents?

Please help!

Thanks,

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus,

I have been the quiet reader on this forum for long time and am amazed by your knowledge on the matter. You guys are superb and really doing a great job. Hats off to you!!

I have a question (this may be off the topic though)

When my PERM and I-140 was filed, my job title was "Senior Developer" but my employer had filed the PERM (& I-140) as "Project Manager". When I got the promotion, my title was changed to "Technical Manager". The job duties are still the same but title is different than in PERM/I-140

My question is:
1. When we file I-485, will this cause a problem?
2. If yes then what can we do to avoid this? Any supporting documents?

Please help!

Thanks,

When did you file your PERM? People get promoted and job titles change. As long as the work remains the same you are fine. I filed in 2008 as a Manager. I filed my 485 as a Director. Same work, more responsibilities and new title.

[Spectator]

I thought I would do a Teddy-like summary of where I think things will go.

Because of increasing Trackitt representation, I don't think there have been quite as many approvals as Teddy.

The initial allocation seems to have already been used. By the end of Q2, I think a little over 13k spillover will also have been allocated, which would equate to about 25k for the whole year at the same rate. With the initial allocation, that would be about 30k SOFAD.

EB2-ROW-M-P will contribute more spillover this year, but it will be offset by higher EB1 and EB5 numbers, so total SOFAD may be similar to last year. I believe EB1 will reach at least the mid 30's and EB5 will rise to 6k.

OR appears to be about 0.75 at present, but this may rise closer to 0.8 based on current trends.

If all cases were adjudicated, that would leave the COD at around the end of Q1 2008. Given that won't be the case, a final resting point of somewhere in 2008 is probable. I don't believe it will end in 2009.

Going into FY2013, there will be sufficient pre-adjudicated cases that COD will move based on those numbers. If CO releases the initial allocation again, as well as QSP, then reasonable movement might be possible in Q1 FY2013 from the ending FY2012 COD.

Movement of the COD will not go past the high water mark reached in FY2012 until the number of pre-adjudicated cases is nearly exhausted, similar to reaching the July 2007 backlog end.

A caveat to the above is that there is not sufficient information yet to assess the numbers of applications for March 2008 onwards. If they are lower than expected, then greater progress would be possible.

Such are the perils of prediction. Although 5 months have passed, it is only really 1 or 2 months in terms of collecting semi-reliable information.

We desperately need some information about EB1 usage. Trackitt, which has been fairly reliable, is horribly skewed by the large numbers of EB1-C approvals for India. It is worth noting that EB1A and EB1B figures are also increased, but the approval profile for EB1 was weighted to the second half of the year in FY2011. Arrgghh!

[aGCHopefull]

When did you file your PERM? People get promoted and job titles change. As long as the work remains the same you are fine. I filed in 2008 as a Manager. I filed my 485 as a Director. Same work, more responsibilities and new title.

My PERM was filed in late 2010 for the position "Project Manager" even though I was Senior Developer.
(My employer used to file EB2 only for Manager and above. Since I was expecting a promotion in 2011 they filed EB2 projecting as Manager)

In 2011, when I got the promotion, I got the title of "Technical Manager". The job duties are same but title is different. So technically I was NEVER a "Project Manager".

Would that be a problem?

[kd2008]

I thought I would do a Teddy-like summary of where I think things will go.

Because of increasing Trackitt representation, I don't think there have been quite as many approvals as Teddy.

The initial allocation seems to have already been used. By the end of Q2, I think a little over 13k spillover will also have been allocated, which would equate to about 25k for the whole year at the same rate. With the initial allocation, that would be about 30k SOFAD.

EB2-ROW-M-P will contribute more spillover this year, but it will be offset by higher EB1 and EB5 numbers, so total SOFAD may be similar to last year. I believe EB1 will reach at least the mid 30's and EB5 will rise to 6k.

OR appears to be about 0.75 at present, but this may rise closer to 0.8 based on current trends.

If all cases were adjudicated, that would leave the COD at around the end of Q1 2008. Given that won't be the case, a final resting point of somewhere in 2008 is probable. I don't believe it will end in 2009.

Going into FY2013, there will be sufficient pre-adjudicated cases that COD will move based on those numbers. If CO releases the initial allocation again, as well as QSP, then reasonable movement might be possible in Q1 FY2013 from the ending FY2012 COD.

Movement of the COD will not go past the high water mark reached in FY2012 until the number of pre-adjudicated cases is nearly exhausted, similar to reaching the July 2007 backlog end.

A caveat to the above is that there is not sufficient information yet to assess the numbers of applications for March 2008 onwards. If they are lower than expected, then greater progress would be possible.

Such are the perils of prediction. Although 5 months have passed, it is only really 1 or 2 months in terms of collecting semi-reliable information.

We desperately need some information about EB1 usage. Trackitt, which has been fairly reliable, is horribly skewed by the large numbers of EB1-C approvals for India. It is worth noting that EB1A and EB1B figures are also increased, but the approval profile for EB1 was weighted to the second half of the year in FY2011. Arrgghh!

Spec, excellent summary. I am playing devil's advocate here or angel's depending on the way you look at it.

We all agree that cut off dates would be somewhere in late Q1, early Q2 of 2008. But for this to happen the USCIS processing has to be faster than the visas are made available. This would trigger retrogression and the said cut-off date. But so far USCIS has been playing catch up as far as processing goes, and to its credit has done better than the paltry expectations that many had. It might just unfold that USCIS processes just enough cases, and Mr. CO does not have to trigger retrogression. Without retrogression, Mr. CO can use the following (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ion%20of.pdf):

The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

enabling him to use QSP every quarter that does not see retrogression. The bad thing about retrogression is that he has to follow country quotas and that is bad for first 3 quarters of the fiscal year. Without retrogression, he can gently guide the cut off dates forward as a portion of the inventory gets adjudicated.

For their part EB2IC folks have to be patient with USCIS and not flood them with SRs once the processing starts taking more than 4 months.

[qesehmk]

Promotion in the same job is never a problem. We have discused this extensively elsewhere. Personally I went from analyst to director in 5 years and the GC process went smooth. No worries.

My PERM was filed in late 2010 for the position "Project Manager" even though I was Senior Developer.
(My employer used to file EB2 only for Manager and above. Since I was expecting a promotion in 2011 they filed EB2 projecting as Manager)

In 2011, when I got the promotion, I got the title of "Technical Manager". The job duties are same but title is different. So technically I was NEVER a "Project Manager".

Would that be a problem?

On a different topic - Regarding AC21's provision about QSP I just want to point out that by that definition if QSP were to happen then it would've happened only in December. So there was no way dates should've moved in Oct and Nov. But the fact is they did. Which means that CO has done something different than simple QSP. More than likely the spillover has happened on a monthly basis here. Moreover the date movement is larger than required indicating that there is no science or formula or fundamental demand supply involved here. So again its futile to speculate what he will do next. The fact is this party can not go on forever - meaning dates won't be this good forever. But it is possible that the dates can continue to stay at an irrational place more than our ability to speculate when they will retrogress

[kd2008]

On a different topic - Regarding AC21's provision about QSP I just want to point out that by that definition if QSP were to happen then it would've happened only in December. So there was no way dates should've moved in Oct and Nov. But the fact is they did. Which means that CO has done something different than simple QSP. More than likely the spillover has happened on a monthly basis here. Moreover the date movement is larger than required indicating that there is no science or formula or fundamental demand supply involved here. So again its futile to speculate what he will do next. The fact is this party can not go on forever - meaning dates won't be this good forever. But it is possible that the dates can continue to stay at an irrational place more than our ability to speculate when they will retrogress

Q, please allow me to explain once again. I think we have been through this a few times. The kind of QSP you described will happen only if the demand is known and is more than the quarterly quota - typically happens after retrogression. When Mr. CO sees the demand less than the quarterly quota, he allows visas to be granted with out regard to country quota, as long as the total visa allocation stays under quarterly quota - this is the new QSP. For this he may choose any date movement he think he needs to make it happen. So I disagree with your point about only Dec should see movement/approvals in case of QSP. More over, the date movement was to generate inventory only as clearly explained by Mr. CO. About your point that the date movement is larger than required is based on the assumption that USCIS will approve all cases in inventory and move in an orderly fashion. I am sure USCIS and Mr. CO have their statistics about how many cases to accept esp. as they know cases do not get approved in order nor all cases are approved within, say, 4 months. So they are hedging their bets to have max. number of approvable cases in the allotted time frame. Nothing wrong with that as they have no real idea about how the recession and the demand destruction - small as it might be eventually - may affect the filing rate.

I do not think we are entirely focused on what he will do next, but more on how may all of this play out. On the face of it, retrogression seems a possibility. But I presented the scenario where it may not happen. Unlikely, I know, but so was the inventory build up.