EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Kanmani]

Nope
Ms+0 exp is Level 1 in most cases

I might be off-topic, but is there a way from PERM data to filter EB2 and EB3? What about fields like PW_Source_Name_9089/PW_Level_9089 which indicates level of experience required for each job based on PWD ... From my experience noticed that EB2 candidates are usually required to fall under 'Level 3' or 'Level 4' categories. Any comments?

[insane_yogi]

Kanmani:
True but how many employers file in EB2 for MS+0Exp...usually they require 2 to 3 years of exp with current company to file for EB2....

[Kanmani]

yogi,
There are people with Ms+0, Ms+1 Level 1 Eb2 in my vicinity.
I did all ground-work to differentiate within the Perm data, but I failed to prove that all Level 1 are Eb3 and obviously they are not. In real time scenario many Level1 are Eb2 , many PWD 60K are Eb2.
Its a hard truth to believe

[Willdo]

Gurus,

This is my first post, I was silent reader for long time. and learned much of Immigration stuff from here. I appreciate great help from all the Posters, which help people like me.

Any predictions for upcoming bulletin.....

-WillDO

[CleanSock]

I have a question. Does EB2 India get Spillover from EB2 Mexico and Philippines?

[veni001]

I have a question. Does EB2 India get Spillover from EB2 Mexico and Philippines?

CleanSock,

Answer is YES.

[CleanSock]

Thank You veni001 In that case, as per the released PERM data of Q1 FY2012, aren't EB Mexico and Philippines cases really low or have they been approximately the same in every quarter of every year? If they are low only in this quarter, would that mean that there will be more spillover from them?

[Spectator]

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.


-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)


More statistics can be found here, including a breakdown of approvals by PD.

[vizcard]

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.


-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)


More statistics can be found here, including a breakdown of approvals by PD.

Spec - what does 395 approvals really mean? I imagine that translates to about 6500 "real" approvals assuming 6% of cases are recorded on trackitt? Is that low or high or average?

What am I missing?

[Spectator]

Spec - what does 395 approvals really mean? I imagine that translates to about 6500 "real" approvals assuming 6% of cases are recorded on trackitt? Is that low or high or average?

What am I missing?

vizcard,

That is not an easy question to answer.

Both the % of people adding their cases to Trackitt and those subsequently updating them to show an approval appear to have risen from the old pre-backlog cases.

Therefore the number of "real" approvals will be less than the 6.5k you mention.

It could be as low as 4k, but is probably slightly higher than that IMO. Really, it is a judgement call.

[kd2008]

Like clockwork, the page has been updated:

travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: April 2012 (Coming Soon)

Hopefully, we will see the bulletin by next Friday.

My guess for movement is 0 to 2 months. 4 months if we are very lucky. This is based on hunch as data really does not support the movement we have had so far anyways. I don't expect any retrogression for EB2IC.

[cool_guy_2004]

yogi,
There are people with Ms+0, Ms+1 Level 1 Eb2 in my vicinity.
I did all ground-work to differentiate within the Perm data, but I failed to prove that all Level 1 are Eb3 and obviously they are not. In real time scenario many Level1 are Eb2 , many PWD 60K are Eb2.
Its a hard truth to believe

Hello Kanmani,

Does USCIS prioritize processing the applications basing on these EB2 classification of Level 1, 2, 3..?

[Kanmani]

Hello Kanmani,

Does USCIS prioritize processing the applications basing on these EB2 classification of Level 1, 2, 3..?

In my opinion, No. But they are giving significance in matching job requirements with that of qualification.

[Kanmani]

At I485 level or I140 level?

I-140 level

[cool_guy_2004]

In my opinion, No. But they are giving significance in matching job requirements with that of qualification.

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.

[kd2008]

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.

Please don't waste your time on made-up worries. The min. qualification has to be what you started the job with. So if you started the job at MS + 0 then that is the min qualification even though they might apply for PERM at 2yrs down the road, say. Mine is somewhat similar case to yours.

As Kanmani said it is at I-140 level and not at I-485 level. So what are you worried about? And even if that made any difference, so what? After waiting so many months, would a wait of few more weeks kill ya?

[Kanmani]

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.

Cool guy, We were referring to diff levels in the perm and I-140 stage and that too I dont find any prioritization based upon qualification in any stage.
Be cool

[cool_guy_2004]

Cool guy, We were referring to diff levels in the perm and I-140 stage and that too I dont find any prioritization based upon qualification in any stage.
Be cool

Thanks for the clarification Kanamni!

KD..I didn't know it was applicable for I-140 but now it's clear!

[Spectator]

I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!

[feedmyback]

Although it means nothing much..... the visa bulletin page has been updated with "April bulletin coming soon....." message. All the best to everyone waiting......

[asankaran]

I think it should move till Sep 1, 2010. Probably CO would want to cover 2010 in 3 months. All the best!

[immi2910]

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.


-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)


More statistics can be found here, including a breakdown of approvals by PD.

Spec,

I think it would more useful if you could break down the date based on Application Date or USCIS Received Date. Let's take an example to understand what I am saying.

In the date October VB cases increased from 125 to 134 (+9) from 2/14 to 2/19. However, it is important to figure if these were fresh cases filed in Feb or these were filed earlier but have just been updated in Trackitt.

This is where I think Application Filed Date can help. If these 9 new cases were filed in Jan but are just showing up now because people are updating the tracker then we can be certain that they are reflected in the I-485 receipts release by USCIS.

I think it will also be useful to see what %age of people file in the month their dates are current. So e.g. in the data above for Jan VB we see total 600 cases (up to 2/29) but only 310 up to Jan 31. Assuming the filing date is same as when people entered the data then it implies ~50% of people did not file in Jan (when they were current) but waited almost a month (and filed in Feb).

Based on the actual data only 53 applications of people who were current in Jan were filed in Feb and only 61 applications were received by USCIS in Feb for people who were current Jan. This implies that ~90% (and not 50%) of the people who were current in Jan filed their application in Jan and are thus reflected in the I-485 receipt data released by USCIS.

Finally, if we do that for multiple months we can with some certainty say what %age of people file in the month they are current, which would help us when I-485 receipts or I-485 Inventory is released.

[insane_yogi]

I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!

Hi Spec,
Thanks for updating these numbers.. just want to understand how you differentiated between EB2 and EB3.. is that distribution based on highest education?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I think it would more useful if you could break down the date based on Application Date or USCIS Received Date. Let's take an example to understand what I am saying.

In the date October VB cases increased from 125 to 134 (+9) from 2/14 to 2/19. However, it is important to figure if these were fresh cases filed in Feb or these were filed earlier but have just been updated in Trackitt.

This is where I think Application Filed Date can help. If these 9 new cases were filed in Jan but are just showing up now because people are updating the tracker then we can be certain that they are reflected in the I-485 receipts release by USCIS.

I think it will also be useful to see what %age of people file in the month their dates are current. So e.g. in the data above for Jan VB we see total 600 cases (up to 2/29) but only 310 up to Jan 31. Assuming the filing date is same as when people entered the data then it implies ~50% of people did not file in Jan (when they were current) but waited almost a month (and filed in Feb).

Based on the actual data only 53 applications of people who were current in Jan were filed in Feb and only 61 applications were received by USCIS in Feb for people who were current Jan. This implies that ~90% (and not 50%) of the people who were current in Jan filed their application in Jan and are thus reflected in the I-485 receipt data released by USCIS.

Finally, if we do that for multiple months we can with some certainty say what %age of people file in the month they are current, which would help us when I-485 receipts or I-485 Inventory is released.

immi2910,

The additions are based on the Case Added to Tracker Field in Trackitt, so by definition they are new cases that did not exist before. That date will never change.

About 90% of people actually file in the month their PD became Current, based on the stats to date. I do keep those figures, but I don't think they are useful to publish.

USCIS Receipt Date

October VB

--------- Cases ---- % --
October --- 118 -- 88.06%
November --- 11 --- 8.21%
December ---- 1 --- 0.75%
January ----- 3 --- 2.24%
February ---- 1 --- 0.75%


November VB

November -- 408 -- 89.67%
December --- 42 --- 9.23%
January ----- 3 --- 0.66%
February ---- 2 --- 0.44%


December VB

December -- 475 -- 87.96%
January ---- 54 -- 10.00%
February --- 11 --- 2.04%


January VB

January --- 543 -- 90.35%
February --- 58 --- 9.65%

[srimurthy]

Spec,

I was looking at the Bachelor's + 5 Years % increase over years from 19 to 22 to 24% in EB2 category. That seems to be around 2% increase year on years and Could this be any indicator towards the porting numbers from EB3 to EB2?

I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!