Thank you for the quick response - Semi GuruOriginally Posted by qblogfan
If you are referring to : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011
I am aware of that.
However, I think Spec and Q did not consider the fact that the people might get a chance to file 485 months before they get their green card or about first quarter movements as these were the charts prepared before we knew these things.
I was wondering if there is any other chart that considers these facts.
This is what I was asking yesterday. Granted this involves a lot more guesstimates, swags and gazing into the crystal balls. And who in the world can accurately predict the whims and fancies of government organizations! Nonetheless, Q, Nishanth and qblogfan responded with some ideas of what future movement could be but also with the caveat that there is no precedence for what DOS is doing this year which makes predicting the STM and BTM very difficult.
Having said that it would still be very very useful for people waiting to file 485 to have some guesstimates of "unka number kab aayega"Even gross estimates (not to the granularity of Spec's work) would help!
Guru's
Thank you very much for all the work you guys are doing. I really appreciate the hard work you guys are putting in. My PD is April 18 2008. What are the chances I have for filing 485 in another 3 -4 months. Please let me know.
Just subtract 6-9 months from the other chart. That is your 485 filing chart. 6-9 months is what EB2IC will take minimum to process.
EB2ROW does take average much less than that. But I would tend to think for EB2IC it should be average 6-9 months.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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My PD is 04/03/08 and the answers I've gotten pretty much apply to you. Q. Nishanth, qblogfan all have chimed in that I have a pretty good chance (someone said 60%) of fliling in Q1 or Q2. If we miss that target date, then additional movement is possible in Q4 is DOS realizes that they have available numbers. If we miss that as well, then we must be covered by any queue buildup that is done for FY 2013 which will happen in Q1 2013 (months of Oct, Nov, Dec 2012). Hope that helps!
Freshman,
So that must be VB of Dec and Jan.
regards
venkat
Great resources in this site...any how its difficult to predict uscis mind...everybody thought dates will move max dec'2006 to feb'2007 last year and after thatdates will start moving after in June 2012.
After reading some posts, guru's were reasonable in predicting dates, but i feel Q's prediction was far more realistic...
wow.. looks like Nishant is the man in focus for next bulletin, best of luck for you and others...
Friends here is what I feel. The current inventory after the Nov bulletin is ~ 20K. If we assume 5-6K porting then there is 5K additional demand to take. This way everyone in 2007 will get a chance to file for 485, I believe this movement should happen in the next bulletin itself as the dates cannot be sustained at this level. Now how far the dates can move in 2008 is simply going to be based on what kind of buffer over 30K is required so that area is currently in the luck zone (All Q1 2008 folks require a little bit of luck). I believe the next bulletin PD will be set at 01-JAN-2008 (Realistically); I would hope its better so that more people in 2008 can file for 485 this year. Next bulletin may well be the final forward movement for intake this year i.e. prior to Sep 2012.
Hi Teddy,
When you say "Next bulletin may well be the final forward movement for intake this year i.e. prior to Sep 2012." did you mean Jan VB ? or Dec VB ?
regards
vchirakala
spec's link tells us that it is around 20k with 3.5k porting(with 8k as base inventory left in 2011)... now that inventory might be less than 8k for 2011 (totally guess) do you think any external factor we don't know might increase this number?
That sucks to hear. But Teddy, are you discounting the 6k annual quota for EB2IC? If not, then that's a flaw and you need to add that. If spillover is 30k, then alongwith 6k annual EB2IC, in FY 2012, EB2IC can get a total of around 36k, which will further the dates perhaps by 2-3 months.
I mean the Dec VB, they have to retrogress the dates back even if there is quarterly spillover sooner so next month maybe the final one.
I believe there was definitely some issue with the last demand data. Here is a rough calculation a) 8k Preadjudicated b) 3.5K PWMB added by Oct VB c) 1.5K PWMB + 7K new demand aded by Nov Bulletin. This makes it closer to 20K. All approvals now are coming by the 2012 cap so any demand data reduction we must attribute now to the current yars cap.
By definition SOFAD means all Cap numbers, last year’s SOFAD not spillover was guesstimated at 30K. My prediction is a little conservative when compared with other gurus. I hope for the best for all Q1 2008 folks, I sincerely hope that the dates go that far but numerically it requires some luck.
So this is based on assumption that current visa's for Oct bulletin are being issued from FY2012 quota- is that correct? Because I believe there is no confirmation on that yet!
Yes this my assumption, I maybe wrong on that, however since the agencies announced in Sep that the numbers are over, I would be inclined to believe that everything post October is from the 2012 cap.
Assuming there is no porting taken into account during the 485 build up, and the buffer planned is 30k.
Since 20k have been used till 11/01/2007, considering a 30k build up, that leaves us with 10k.
Using Spec's chart (no porting),another 10k will take us to 03/15/2008
Am I missing something?
No porting definitely gives a much better result. If you look at the chart with higher end porting the demand till Dec 2011 is 26515. Having some buffer on the conservative side I believe that the end of 2007 is a realistic expectation. Q1 2008 some point is a possibility, we have to all pray for the best.
01-DEC-2007 - 100%
01-JAN-2008- 75% (This is what Iam projecting)
01-FEB-2008 - 30%
01-MAR-2008 - 10%
Most of the times the date movements have been lesser than our expectations so its best to be bit conservative and be happy if the dates moves better than expected.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 10-11-2011 at 08:18 PM. Reason: Corrected Year Typo
Hi Teddy,
I think the dates should be 01-Jan-2008 , 01-Feb-2008 and 01-Mar-2008
Gurus, beginning of this month I relocated to Maryland (H1B extension filed for MD) as my PERM was filed in Maryland. My wife who is on her own H1B (but no GC process was initiated by her employer) is currently in Connecticut. I am traveling to CT every 2 weeks and hope this pain will be over once we get our EAD's and my wife can find a job in MD. Now when we file our 485's do we enter our corresponding addresses in MD and CT? Could there be a chance of RFE?
Thanks for pointing out; I just corrected it, apologies for the confusion.
I agree with 80% of your idea, but if they only get 30k demand, can they approve all of them? I think at least 10-20 percent will be delayed for all kinds of reasons. I would say 35k demand is a safer number. I think he won't take any chance to waste visa numbers when he builds up the demand. The other thing is that according to Spec's analysis it should be around 17k demand before Nov.1. I am more optimistic than you. I think PD April 2008 has a good chance to submit 485 in this winter. Also Mr.Co may not consider porting for demand build up process because porting can vary greatly. Again I have limited knowledge, so my prediction is less reliable.
------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting
April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226
Last edited by qblogfan; 10-11-2011 at 02:01 PM.
Even with 6k porting
26,515 points to 01-jan-08
30,251 points to 15-feb-08
So do you think this changes ur perspective?
Mr.CO has to have some demand in the beginning of the next Fiscal Year. If he gets close numbers, it will be more trouble for him. Let's say, he gets 30k demand and the next year's SOFAD is 30k, if he can approve all the 30k demand (I think at least 10% won't be approved), then he will have zero demand in the next October, then he will get into trouble to manipulate numbers. I think he won't cut it sharp, he may have some buffer for his own flexibility.
Even with 6k porting
26,515 points to 01-jan-08
30,251 points to 15-feb-08
So do you think this changes ur perspective?
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