EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[CleanSock]

Spec, Why is there a sudden surge in applications in Dec 2011? Also, how is it possible that the number of approvals in October 2011 is higher than the number of receipts?

These seem to be partly published now http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2012-qtr1.pdf

Although the Reports page says it was published February 15, it was not there yesterday.

EB I-485 approvals were 31,541.

If we assume the full 27% visa numbers were allocated (37,800) then the difference is Consular Processed. That gives a CP % of 16.56%. That increase may be due to increasing numbers of EB3-Philippines CP cases.

EB I-140 Receipts for the quarter were 17,979 and 16,315 I-140 were approved.

[kd2008]

An implication from the data is that they can process "new I-485" at 10K+ per month. That should settle concerns about "slow processing" by USCIS?

There were about 7K to 8.5K pre-adjudicated EB2IC cases at the beginning of the quarter. All the AOS approvals in EB3 are pre-adjudicated and that number would be about 6K to 7K or so. So out of the 31K approvals about 14K or so were not technically processed. Only about 17K to 19K were processed. Going forward it has to process 25K or so per quarter as there are no pre-adjudicated EB2IC cases left so to speak. That is quite a jump to achieve.

[kd2008]

Spec, Why is there a sudden surge in applications in Dec 2011? Also, how is it possible that the number of approvals in October 2011 is higher than the number of receipts?

The approvals include the pre-adjudicated cases from APr 15 to July 15 hence the approvals are more than receipts.

[Spectator]

Why 15K for Oct - Dec 2011 is high number? If we sustract PWMBs then number per month comes less than 2K(even if we discount for some people who have not filed yet). If 15K is the number near actual number then I dont think its high.

Don't get fixated on the 15k figure.

Look at the actual monthly figures themselves, which represent EB1 - EB5, then subtract what numbers you expect represent EB1, EB2-non IC, EB4 & EB5. I think any EB3 contribution can largely be discounted in the numbers.

What's left must be the EB2-IC numbers.

The higher numbers you use for other Categories, the lower the OR, but the less the Spillover and vice versa.

[CleanSock]

Oh ok..I got it now. Thanks

[suninphx]

Don't get fixated on the 15k figure.

Look at the actual monthly figures themselves, which represent EB1 - EB5, then subtract what numbers you expect represent EB1, EB2-non IC, EB4 & EB5. I think any EB3 contribution can largely be discounted in the numbers.

What's left must be the EB2-IC numbers.

The higher numbers you use for other Categories, the lower the OR, but the less the Spillover and vice versa.

Spec,

I agree that I did not do any analysis of numbers of my own. I was just responding to what KD mentioned as 15K to be high. And response was in that context.

Thanks for tips for estimating Eb2IC in take.Will try to do some primary analysis over weekend.
I have a different view than Teddy on what would be main contributor for final resting point for this FY (SOFAD Vs DD). For me it's more of DD which will make the final resting point for this FY to pushed further than Mar 08 (original estimate on this forum). So my analysis may get biased because of that. But let's see. Haven't seen actual numbers yet.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec,

I agree that I did not do any analysis of numbers of my own. I was just responding to what KD mentioned as 15K to be high. And response was in that context.

Thanks for tips for estimating Eb2IC in take.Will try to do some primary analysis over weekend.
I have a different view than Teddy on what would be main contributor for final resting point for this FY (SOFAD Vs DD). For me it's more of DD which will make the final resting point for this FY to pushed further than Mar 08 (original estimate on this forum). So my analysis may get biased because of that. But let's see. Haven't seen actual numbers yet.

Sun I respect your views, I thought we agreed on the OR range as 0.7 - 0.8. My point is unless the SOFAD is significantly higher we possibly cannot explain the number of approvals, Iam projecting a change from the estimate of 22K to 38K that is far bigger that a change in OR from .8 to say .7 or for that matter even from 1 to .7. I will look forward to your analysis. Iam sure you also do not believe the Jan inventory at face value.

[reddyedula]

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon

is that really true i cant believe it mine june 29th 2011 . my 140 - 3.5 months -still initial review. i already gave up getting gc in near future .

[immi2910]

Don't get fixated on the 15k figure.

Look at the actual monthly figures themselves, which represent EB1 - EB5, then subtract what numbers you expect represent EB1, EB2-non IC, EB4 & EB5. I think any EB3 contribution can largely be discounted in the numbers.

What's left must be the EB2-IC numbers.

The higher numbers you use for other Categories, the lower the OR, but the less the Spillover and vice versa.

I still do not understand why you think the numbers are high. Looking at last year the average was ~20K/Quarter or ~7K/Month. This was when EB2 IC were unable to file. In Q1 of FY 2012 the numbers are 8,500; 12,000 & 15,000. Assuming trend from last year holds we can assume ~7K/month is for all other categories and EB2IC numbers are: 1,500; 5,500 & 8,000.

Month --- PD ------- EB2IC Applicants
Oct ----- 7/15/07 -- 1,500 (representing PWMB)
Nov ----- 11/1/08 -- 5,500 (5500 applicants in 3.5 months ~ 1570 / month)
Dec ----- 3/15/08 -- 8,000 (8000 applicants in 4.5 months ~ 1800 / month)

As far as I can tell based on PERM Data this is a lower number as everyone was expecting it to be north of 2000/month (or at least I was).

Yes compared to last year numbers are high but you would expect them to be higher since EB2IC applications are hitting the system whereas earlier they weren't. Did you mean that you expected to see 30K but the number was 35K?

[immi2910]

Sun I respect your views, I thought we agreed on the OR range as 0.7 - 0.8. My point is unless the SOFAD is significantly higher we possibly cannot explain the number of approvals, Iam projecting a change from the estimate of 22K to 38K that is far bigger that a change in OR from .8 to say .7 or for that matter even from 1 to .7. I will look forward to your analysis. Iam sure you also do not believe the Jan inventory at face value.

Teddy, based on the I485 receipts, there were 15,000 applicants up to PD of Mar 15 2008 or ~ 1,600 / month. Assuming this trend hold with 22K SOFAD + 5K (regular quota), you would expect additional approval for 7.5 months i.e. up to Dec 1 2008. Now if you expect the demand to be lower in later half of 2008 then even with 22K SOFAD you will get in to early 2009.

[immi2910]

is that really true i cant believe it mine june 29th 2011 . my 140 - 3.5 months -still initial review. i already gave up getting gc in near future .

Yes it is . I applied I140 premium as my 6 years were expiring.

[Spectator]

I still do not understand why you think the numbers are high. Looking at last year the average was ~20K/Quarter or ~7K/Month. This was when EB2 IC were unable to file. In Q1 of FY 2012 the numbers are 8,500; 12,000 & 15,000. Assuming trend from last year holds we can assume ~7K/month is for all other categories and EB2IC numbers are: 1,500; 5,500 & 8,000.

How would you split that 7k per month for everyone else?

EB1 = ??
EB2-non IC = ??
EB4 = ??
EB5 = ??

All of EB3 are retrogressed, so there won't be many new I-485s from them.

7k per month is 84k per year. If EB4 uses 10k and EB5 uses 6k, then EB1 & EB2-non IC must use 68k between them, versus the 74.4k allocation. Spillover would only be 6.4k from them.

Higher would be a more accurate description than high.

[suninphx]

Sun I respect your views, I thought we agreed on the OR range as 0.7 - 0.8. My point is unless the SOFAD is significantly higher we possibly cannot explain the number of approvals, Iam projecting a change from the estimate of 22K to 38K that is far bigger that a change in OR from .8 to say .7 or for that matter even from 1 to .7. I will look forward to your analysis. Iam sure you also do not believe the Jan inventory at face value.

Teddy,

I have different view than your in terms of 'what will push final resting point'..... As I understood from your post few days back , your opinion is that final resting point may be Jan 2009 mainly because of much higher SOFAD. My view is final resting point may be somewhere last quarter of CY 2008 and that would be mainly because of DD than higher SOFAD(of course SOFAD will contribute). I am not convinced yet that we will get 35K+ SOFAD this FY.

For me, any SOFAD more than 25K+ is going to be artificial one(because of processing delays etc) eventually eating up into next year numbers. But thats fine I guess..many PD2008 people will get their GC much earlier.

And yes - not taking Jan inventory to its face value. Those numbers are ridiculously low.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I have different view than your in terms of 'what will push final resting point'..... As I understood from your post few days back , your opinion is that final resting point may be Jan 2009 mainly because of much higher SOFAD. My view is final resting point may be somwhere last quarter of CY 2008 and that would be mainky because of DD than higher SOFAD(ofcourse SOFAD will contribute). I am not conviced yet that we will get 35K+ SOFAD this FY.

For me, any SOFAD more than 25K+ is going to be artificial one(because of processing delays etc) eventaully eating up into next year numbers. But thats fine I guess..many PD2008 people will get their GC much earlier.

Fine I understand your point of view so your SOFAD expectation is 25K and let’s say mine is 35K, what is the OR that you are proposing ball park, mine is 0.75 this way we will have a clearer understanding. Regardless its good all 2008 cases will get GC sooner.

[reddyedula]

i just entered 5th year of my h1b , I thought it better to go for regular . in nov 2011 i thought there will not much movement in VB cutoff dates . my hubbi he just entered 4th year of his h1b -his 140 approved

[qesehmk]

I think immi2910 has a point. Since if anything - economy has improved so 485 for EB1->EB5 less EB2IC can't go down. So 7K is a good assumption. It doesn't matter what the composition is since in the end all SOFAD will flow to EB2IC. EB3 is a moot point.

So basically the dates movement resulted in 1.5K, 5 and 8K EB2IC demand in Oct - Nov and Dec respectively.

In dec 2011, the EB2IC date was 15 Mar 2008. So between Aug2007-Mar2008 there is bsaically approx 14.5K EB2IC numbers. Thats about 2K per month. I think that's just about right for EB2IC or slightly lower. But it is nowhere near where we are thinking demand destruction has happened.

I think the date movement is quite artificial. Just look at the approvals. They are ~36K right in USCIS Q1 2012. That's 10K EB3, 14K EB1. So only 12K for EB2 whereas EB2 had 24K. So there is no way EB2IC would require any date movement even if spillover was available.

I think CO has done proactive date movement and its a great thing he has done. But all I am saying is the whole idea that demand destruction is large is probably not true. At least not to the extent we are thinking.

At the same time - I do admit right now as I write this I have looked at Jan 2012 inventory and compared it to OCt 2011 one. May be that could uncover a few more things.

But bottomline- based on what I see so far - I think it would be a mistake to assume that dates are moving because of demand destruction. They are NOT. Also it would be a mistake to believe that they will not retro beyond Mid 2008. Just as much they have gone beyond where they could've gone in one direction .... they could very well move in other direction beyond where they really should. But we can say with confidence that they will not move beyond Q1 2008 in a sustainable manner. The more I tihnk about it, Q1 2008 seems where we will end 2012 and pick up 2013 from EB2IC perspective. So again .... those current ... make hay while sun shines and file 485 ASAP. EB2IC may not touch 2010 for another 2 years.

How would you split that 7k per month for everyone else?

EB1 = ??
EB2-non IC = ??
EB4 = ??
EB5 = ??

All of EB3 are retrogressed, so there won't be many new I-485s from them.

7k per month is 84k per year. If EB4 uses 10k and EB5 uses 6k, then EB1 & EB2-non IC must use 68k between them, versus the 74.4k allocation. Spillover would only be 6.4k from them.

[immi2910]

How would you split that 7k per month for everyone else?

EB1 = ??
EB2-non IC = ??
EB4 = ??
EB5 = ??

All of EB3 are retrogressed, so there won't be many new I-485s from them.

7k per month is 84k per year. If EB4 uses 10k and EB5 uses 6k, then EB1 & EB2-non IC must use 68k between them, versus the 74.4k allocation. Spillover would only be 6.4k from them.

Higher would be a more accurate description than high.

Do we really need to split it across all the categories?

Total visas are 140K and EB3 is 40K. Total available for EB1,2,4 & 5 = 100K. Of this if we assume 78K* is used by EB1,4,5 & 2(non IC) then SOFAD ~ 16.5K (assuming 5.5K IC quota), which I agree is low. Total IC visas = 22K.

* I used 78K and not 84K since those were the receipts last year. 7K /month was just an approximation I used to make calculation easier in my previous post.

Were you expecting Spillover to be higher? Of the 22K total IC visas 15K will be used by PD up to Mar 15 2008. Assuming 1,600 IC visas / month implies that everyone up to Aug 1 2008 will get GC.

[suninphx]

I think immi2910 has a point. Since if anything - economy has improved so 485 for EB1->EB5 less EB2IC can't go down. So 7K is a good assumption. It doesn't matter what the composition is since in the end all SOFAD will flow to EB2IC. EB3 is a moot point.

So basically the dates movement resulted in 1.5K, 5 and 8K EB2IC demand in Oct - Nov and Dec respectively.

In dec 2011, the EB2IC date was 15 Mar 2008. So between Aug2007-Mar2008 there is bsaically approx 14.5K EB2IC numbers. Thats about 2K per month. I think that's just about right for EB2IC or slightly lower. But it is nowhere near where we are thinking demand destruction has happened.

I think the date movement is quite artificial. Just look at the approvals. They are ~36K right in USCIS Q1 2012. That's 10K EB3, 14K EB1. So only 12K for EB2 whereas EB2 had 24K. So there is no way EB2IC would require any date movement even if spillover was available.

I think CO has done proactive date movement and its a great thing he has done. But all I am saying is the whole idea that demand destruction is large is probably not true. At least not to the extent we are thinking.

At the same time - I do admit right now as I write this I have looked at Jan 2012 inventory and compared it to OCt 2011 one. May be that could uncover a few more things.

But bottomline- based on what I see so far - I think it would be a mistake to assume that dates are moving because of demand destruction. They are NOT. Also it would be a mistake to believe that they will not retro beyond Mid 2008. Just as much they have gone beyond where they could've gone in one direction .... they could very well move in other direction beyond where they really should. But we can say with confidence that they will not move beyond Q1 2008 in a sustainable manner. The more I tihnk about it, Q1 2008 seems where we will end 2012 and pick up 2013 from EB2IC perspective. So again .... those current ... make hay while sun shines and file 485 ASAP. EB2IC may not touch 2010 for another 2 years.

Q,

I think every one understands that date movement is NOT becuase of DD. Right now we are debating where FY2012 will end and whether that will be because of higher DD or higher SOFAD.
Also if you are denying that there is DD, then I will have to disagree with you.

[immi2910]

Q,

I think every one understands that date movement is NOT becuase of DD. Right now we are debating where FY2012 will end and whether that will be because of higher DD or higher SOFAD.
Also if you are denying that there is DD, then I will have to disagree with you.

I agree there with Demand Destruction theory based on the data that Spectator provided. I was assuming over 2K visas a month based on PERM but the actual data is close 1.6K a month. See my earlier posts for details.

[kkruna]

Last years I-485 numbers was 78,302 at average of 6526. Plus, do we need to account for "lesser I-485" this year from ROW due to PERM delays? This would also mean higher IC proportion in the numbers for Oct-Dec this year...

How would you split that 7k per month for everyone else?

EB1 = ??
EB2-non IC = ??
EB4 = ??
EB5 = ??

All of EB3 are retrogressed, so there won't be many new I-485s from them.

7k per month is 84k per year. If EB4 uses 10k and EB5 uses 6k, then EB1 & EB2-non IC must use 68k between them, versus the 74.4k allocation. Spillover would only be 6.4k from them.

Higher would be a more accurate description than high.

[Kanmani]

Fine I understand your point of view so your SOFAD expectation is 25K and let’s say mine is 35K, what is the OR that you are proposing ball park, mine is 0.75 this way we will have a clearer understanding. Regardless its good all 2008 cases will get GC sooner.

May I join you guys? My OR is 0.55

2008 - 0.50
2009 - 0.60

[Spectator]

Do we really need to split it across all the categories?

Total visas are 140K and EB3 is 40K. Total available for EB1,2,4 & 5 = 100K. Of this if we assume 78K* is used by EB1,4,5 & 2(non IC) then SOFAD ~ 16.5K (assuming 5.5K IC quota), which I agree is low. Total IC visas = 22K.

* I used 78K and not 84K since those were the receipts last year. 7K /month was just an approximation I used to make calculation easier in my previous post.

Were you expecting Spillover to be higher? Of the 22K total IC visas 15K will be used by PD up to Mar 15 2008. Assuming 1,600 IC visas / month implies that everyone up to Aug 1 2008 will get GC.

immi2910,

Probably not.

You made the point I was wanting to convey.

It is difficult to have a low O.R. AND high SOFAD based on the figures in the report.

Higher SOFAD also means a higher OR, which limits date movement. 3 months data isn't really enough to work on, since the data can be quite "lumpy".

[kd2008]

Do we really need to split it across all the categories?

Total visas are 140K and EB3 is 40K. Total available for EB1,2,4 & 5 = 100K. Of this if we assume 78K* is used by EB1,4,5 & 2(non IC) then SOFAD ~ 16.5K (assuming 5.5K IC quota), which I agree is low. Total IC visas = 22K.

* I used 78K and not 84K since those were the receipts last year. 7K /month was just an approximation I used to make calculation easier in my previous post.

Were you expecting Spillover to be higher? Of the 22K total IC visas 15K will be used by PD up to Mar 15 2008. Assuming 1,600 IC visas / month implies that everyone up to Aug 1 2008 will get GC.

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2010, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 17.5K
FY 2011 Receipts = 78K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 26.3K
Visas used up = 17.5K + 78K - 26.3K = 69.2K
Quota for EB1+EB2+EB4+EB5= 100K
EB2IC usage for FY 2011 = 100K - 69.2K = 30.8K <--- This was our SOFAD last year.

So you see not all receipts are approved in the same year and this will affect your calculation.

[immi2910]

May I join you guys? My OR is 0.55

2008 - 0.50
2009 - 0.60

I understand OR is the I485 applications to PERM ratio but what does it stand for?

[kd2008]

immi2910,

Probably not.

You made the point I was wanting to convey.

It is difficult to have a low O.R. AND high SOFAD based on the figures in the report.

Higher SOFAD also means a higher OR, which limits date movement. 3 months data isn't really enough to work on, since the data can be quite "lumpy".

Spec, SOFAD estimates are usually possible and may be we get them correctly with the way we all make these predictions. OR is something we have been fashioning to estimate future demand and we well may be wrong on it.