EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[khushraho]

One question on job change after 6 months on EAD..

Once you resign from your current job or got laid off, how quickly you need to find your next job with out losing your status?

[qesehmk]

There is no such time period that USCIS talks about. They talk about being out of status and the candidate should leave the country ASAP.

However there are examples where people have stayed back for a year and then found another job.

IMHO - if your H1 stays valid - then perhaps your status stays valid. At least I am not aware of any law that says that you lose your H1 status if you lose the job. You aquire the status through your job but i do not think you lose just by losing the job.

You can certainly lose status if it expires and is not extended OR if the employer cancels the H1B.

So long story short - you have time until your status is valid. I am not sure if just by losing the job you lose the status.

All the best Khushraho.

p.s. - If you are an electrical engineer and willing to work in Tucson Arizona, there is an opening there I know of.

One question on job change after 6 months on EAD..

Once you resign from your current job or got laid off, how quickly you need to find your next job with out losing your status?

[khushraho]

^^
Well, let me elaborate further..

If someone on h1 got laid off, he needs to find next job very quickly coz the latest pay stubs is mandatory for H1 transfer. If you are out of job for 3-4 months, you can certainly assume that your transfer would be in trouble.

As far as AC21is concerned,there are not this much process. As per my knowledge you just need to inform USCIS about your new job and job profile. No approval per say is not required..

That is where my question was from..

[qesehmk]

If eligible for AC21, and H1 status is not valid then candidate is already in unlawful status but in a period of authorized stay (Spec explained this 7-8 pages back). As such can look for a job forever unless 485 is revoked.

There is no such requirement for paystubs etc as in H1 trasnfer. Only that they need to inform USCIS.

p.s. - As suninphx mentioned below EAD is still required to work. But you don't accrue unlawful presence while on AOS.

^^
Well, let me elaborate further..

If someone on h1 got laid off, he needs to find next job very quickly coz the latest pay stubs is mandatory for H1 transfer. If you are out of job for 3-4 months, you can certainly assume that your transfer would be in trouble.

As far as AC21is concerned,there are not this much process. As per my knowledge you just need to inform USCIS about your new job and job profile. No approval per say is not required..

That is where my question was from..

[Kanmani]

Whenever the job described in the H1b is lost, the H1b beneficiary immediately loses his/her status. If there is a gap between the date of last paycheck and RD of H1b transfer application , then the USCIS would approve only the H1b petition but deny the status extension. ( H1b approval notice without I-94 at the bottom)

To reinstate the valid H1b status , the incumbent must travel out of usa and get a valid I-94 Card.

The above is true for H1b applicants without I-485 pending. I am not sure about the scenario after I-485 .

[suninphx]

Whenever the job described in the H1b is lost, the H1b beneficiary immediately loses his/her status. If there is a gap between the date of last paycheck and RD of H1b transfer application , then the USCIS would approve only the H1b petition but deny the status extension. ( H1b approval notice without I-94 at the bottom)

To reinstate the valid H1b status , the incumbent must travel out of usa and get a valid I-94 Card.

The above is true for H1b applicants without I-485 pending. I am not sure about the scenario after I-485 .

One need to move on EAD in order to continue working if H1 status is lost because of either losing job or not getting paid on h1.

[tometukuri]

Just wanted to share some good news! Both me and my wife have recieved our CPO mails for I-485. Finally! Thanks to every member of the forum...esp Q, The Big 4 and The Top 10. I have been a deligent follower of the forum and have personally learnt a lot over the past year.

[khushraho]

Thanks for the responses..

In short, if one is eligible for AC 21, there is no need for panicking if he/she looses his job...correct?

[gcoracle]

Received I485 CPO emails for self and spouse today. My background: Work for a fortune 10 company, MS (Australia), unique name (pretty sure there will be none with my first and last name), changed H1 only once and been with the same employer for 6 years

[makmohan]

Friends, if the last inventory data shows such a low number of filings in Q4 of 2007 as well current low 485 demand from ROW, what are the new estimated for PD to receive GCs in year 2012 (till october)? Is it still till March 2008 or mid-april 2008?

TIA
- Makmohan

[mesan123]

Congratulations .. ...enjoy the freedom

Received I485 CPO emails for self and spouse today. My background: Work for a fortune 10 company, MS (Australia), unique name (pretty sure there will be none with my first and last name), changed H1 only once and been with the same employer for 6 years

[qesehmk]

Congratulations TT and gcoracle! All the best for future!

Just wanted to share some good news! Both me and my wife have recieved our CPO mails for I-485. Finally! Thanks to every member of the forum...esp Q, The Big 4 and The Top 10. I have been a deligent follower of the forum and have personally learnt a lot over the past year.

Received I485 CPO emails for self and spouse today. My background: Work for a fortune 10 company, MS (Australia), unique name (pretty sure there will be none with my first and last name), changed H1 only once and been with the same employer for 6 years

[Reader]

Friends, I have received my CPO email for me yesterday, but there is no update for my wife. In our case, USCIS web site did not recognize all the receipt numbers until they are approved. The EAD / AP receipt numbers were not recognized until they were approved, my 485 receipt number was recognized yesterday after approval and my wife's 485 receipt is still not recognized. So, I do not know the real status of my wife's case.

If primary is approved and the dependent is pending, does it mean that there is an RFE on that case or could it be just a time delay?

[qesehmk]

Congratulations. Almost certainly the dependent approval should come within a couple of days unless you filed the dependent later than your own.

Friends, I have received my CPO email for me yesterday, but there is no update for my wife. In our case, USCIS web site did not recognize all the receipt numbers until they are approved. The EAD / AP receipt numbers were not recognized until they were approved, my 485 receipt number was recognized yesterday after approval and my wife's 485 receipt is still not recognized. So, I do not know the real status of my wife's case.

If primary is approved and the dependent is pending, does it mean that there is an RFE on that case or could it be just a time delay?

[rasknorr]

Received I485 CPO emails for self and spouse today. My background: Work for a fortune 10 company, MS (Australia), unique name (pretty sure there will be none with my first and last name), changed H1 only once and been with the same employer for 6 years

Congratulations!!!

[Reader]

Can someone please help me with my question... My 485 was approved few days ago and my wife's 485 is still pending. Therefore she does not have her H4 status anymore. I know that she can stay legally waiting for a decision on AOS, but my question is what happens if her AOS is denied. If a decision is made in May 2012, will the days she has stayed in US in March and April waiting for the decision be counted as unlawful presence?

[Transformer]

but my question is what happens if her AOS is denied.

Though primary and dependent 485 is approved together most of the time, it's not uncommon to approve them seperate with few weeks delay. When the primary is approved the dependent will be approved unless there are obvious issues like out of status fr more than 180 days or criminal record. If you don't think of those issues then there is no reason to be panic. Be cool and you will get it.

[GC-Utopic]

From my understanding of reading the USCIS memos,

It depends,

Scenario 1 - If you are in Lawful status at the time of properly filed I485, even if its get rejected you would not accrue any unlawful presence.

Scenario 2- If you do not have status ( even if your status expires 3 days before applying) when applying the I 485, if it gets rejected eventually, you would accrue unlawful presence of 3 days + AOS time..

So, the key is having a lawful status when you apply, if you have one, no need to worry about AOS time even if it gets rejected eventually.

Hope it makes sense, others more knowledgeble than me can chime in.

Can someone please help me with my question... My 485 was approved few days ago and my wife's 485 is still pending. Therefore she does not have her H4 status anymore. I know that she can stay legally waiting for a decision on AOS, but my question is what happens if her AOS is denied. If a decision is made in May 2012, will the days she has stayed in US in March and April waiting for the decision be counted as unlawful presence?

[Jonty Rhodes]

April Visa Bulletin Prediction on CM's blog. Any comments???

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ctions-eb.html

[nrmmrn]

only prediction I can make is, if his best case scenario for EB2I comes true, then I will be filing for EAD/485 in April!!

April Visa Bulletin Prediction on CM's blog. Any comments???

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ctions-eb.html

[qesehmk]

For EB2IC I think I would agree with the forecast. But honestly I feel also fooled by CO since I never thought there would such kind of sustained continuous forward movement.

It is counterintuitive since it required two things we didn't assume : 1) Quarterly spillover 2) Slower than usual Pace of USCIS approvals.

As long as those 2 things are in still place - we will continue to see forward movement. The chances of #2 being in place is what is difficult and hence the date advance should come to a halt and even retro. Whether it happens this month or next is really secondary.

April Visa Bulletin Prediction on CM's blog. Any comments???

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ctions-eb.html

[vizcard]

April Visa Bulletin Prediction on CM's blog. Any comments???

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ctions-eb.html

All I can say is, he said a lot but said nothing.

Most analysis point to a stall in movement. If there is movement there is no reason to expect any particular time frame. It could be 1 month or 3 or 6. We are already way past the "building pipeline" stage.

See, I did the same thing as the CM blog. Said nothing in my whole paragraph

[vishnu]

ha ha ha - hilarious yet true! kudos to vizcard for summarizing in 2 lines as opposed to 20 on CM Blog

[kd2008]

For EB2IC I think I would agree with the forecast. But honestly I feel also fooled by CO since I never thought there would such kind of sustained continuous forward movement.

It is counterintuitive since it required two things we didn't assume : 1) Quarterly spillover 2) Slower than usual Pace of USCIS approvals.

As long as those 2 things are in still place - we will continue to see forward movement. The chances of #2 being in place is what is difficult and hence the date advance should come to a halt and even retro. Whether it happens this month or next is really secondary.

Another thing to keep in mind is that when the demand from EB2IC is so low, visas will continue to be handed out in the order of processing without regard to country quotas. We saw this in happen before this bulletin: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_2007.html

This bulletin was the first of its kind to explain the setting of cuttoff dates after they had been current for a while.

Changes in CIS processing procedures during the past two years created a significant backlog of cases and a consequent reduction in demand for numbers.
During the time that the Employment-based categories have remained “Current” many tens of thousands of applicants have become eligible to file for adjustment of status. Last summer, CIS notified Congress of its intent to eliminate its current backlogs by the end of FY-2006. As a result of the CIS backlog reduction effort, we are now experiencing very heavy visa demand as CIS has begun to process cases to conclusion. Section 201(a)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act states that not more than 27 percent of the Employment-based annual limit may be used in each of the first three quarters of a fiscal year. Based on the current rate of demand, the 27 percent level for the first quarter of FY-2005 will be exceeded by the end of December.

It has therefore become necessary to impose an Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for January in order to limit number use during the second quarter. Many of the cases have priority dates that are several years old, and the cut-off date represents the first priority date that cannot be accommodated for final processing. The cut-off date will apply only to the following chargeability areas: China-mainland born, India, and Philippines. Cut-off date movement during the remainder of FY-2005 depends on the extent of future visa demand. No specific predictions are possible at this time.

The hard truth is USCIS will have to improve its processing speed considerably to consume all of the quarterly spillover. This is highly unlikely. My personal opinion is we won't see any retrogression until July bulletin. Will the dates stall in coming bulletins? It is not a very relevant item simply because the chances of the cases filed in coming months being adjudicated are really small. We will see Oct-Nov-Dec filers' cases being processed for quite a while in future.

[Mavrick]

NVC reciepts doesnot gaurentee being current next month....it can be anytime in next one year......

Experts, the one year time frame that Mesan said is applicable or not?..Can it take take greater than one year or should the dates have to move within one year?