EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

Reader
You can enlighten you attorney with the below memo ( Page 3 )
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memo...k)_14jul08.pdf

Or have Kanmani represent you.....once she has EAD

[mygctracker]

Stringent H1B Visa measures in Hyderabad,India consulate for IT consultants.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...m_medium=email

[codesmith]

Or have Kanmani represent you.....once she has EAD

I totally agree with you sun, I think there are many on this forum like Q/Teddy/Spe/Nishanth can be immi-lawyers

[Spectator]

New post from CM talks about 'low demand' theory. PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42?

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...arch-2012.html

CM post looks promising...if his prediction is correct. i meant PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42 . then as he mentioned retrogression will be less and dates will start moving again in FY2013 first quater as they have to again build the inventory. may be the movement will be 1 to 3 months each bulletion

I agree, it made my day too

I have never got things the easy way, no lucky draws, no lotteries, no short lines, I am fully expecting myself to call USCIS around April 2nd week to request a SR to look at my case as it is past the 4 months processing time of NSC, and hence it is critical that dates remain current for me in rest of the FY!

I would just say there is a fairly big error in what the table says it represents and the figures in the table.

Either way, the OR of 0.42 mentioned is incorrect. Maybe you can spot it too.

[vishnu]

My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!

[vizcard]

Yes you can check the FP processing status by calling FBI. I did the same by calling 304-625-5590.

I guess since its FBI customer service, it should be as reliable as it can be. I went for FP on Friday and called on Tuesday to check the status. So I guess 24-48 hours after the FP notice, should be good.

what did you specifically check? Whether there were red flags?

[mesan123]

tnx for information....this information helps.....atleast people with sep 2010 proirity date will be current for sure with in next one year

My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!

[kd2008]

My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!

Vishnu, thank you for sharing this info. Could you please share with us the exact date of your PD?

[Kanmani]

Vishnu, attorney's mistake or you opted for CP ?

[ontheedge]

Kolugc
U.S. Consulate General in Chennai will no longer process Immigrant Visa petitions as of January 1, 2012... ..http://chennai.usconsulate.gov/immigrantstous.html

You may need to visit Mumbai/Delhi Consulate for immigrant visa stamping . Just for information :-)

You are such a treasure trove of information, Kanmani! You rock!

[Jonty Rhodes]

PERM Fact Sheet for FY2012 published today. Contains YTD information for FY2012.

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...t_Jan_2012.pdf

[kolugc]

OMG...!!!

Let me research on it now..

Never knew all these..

Thanks a lot Kanmani..!!

Kolugc
U.S. Consulate General in Chennai will no longer process Immigrant Visa petitions as of January 1, 2012... ..http://chennai.usconsulate.gov/immigrantstous.html

You may need to visit Mumbai/Delhi Consulate for immigrant visa stamping . Just for information :-)

[Prabhas]

I would just say there is a fairly big error in what the table says it represents and the figures in the table.

Either way, the OR of 0.42 mentioned is incorrect. Maybe you can spot it too.

Spec,

Though I am not savy enough to judge the OR being 0.42 or .75 etc, it is for sure that the demand destruction is huge atleast from the recent report by NFAP which I believe it mentioned that the H1-B refusals from India was as much as 40-50% since begining of 2009.I might be wrong but this is what I read in that atricle or from some article interpretations. While I feel bad for those who got stuck back in India with these RFE's & Rejections, it did actually impact the DD to significant extent.Just my 2cents.

[mesan123]

this change started in last 2-3 months....

OMG...!!!

Let me research on it now..

Never knew all these..

Thanks a lot Kanmani..!!

[Vikrant]

I would just say there is a fairly big error in what the table says it represents and the figures in the table.

Either way, the OR of 0.42 mentioned is incorrect. Maybe you can spot it too.

If I understand correctly, the OR converts the total number of PERM filings into total number of GC filings (I-485 demand plus CP demand) and you would need to multiply by a factor (0.85 or 0.90) to get to I-485 filings. This number would be comparable to I-485 filings on trackitt and I-485 pending inventory report.

[kkruna]

Is this a precursor or just a stray case? I mean the upshot that Sep 2010 would be current in a year is indeed significant. Can USCIS project status one year ahead?

My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!

[Spectator]

I have been a silent follower of this blog for the last couple of months and am really impressed with the overall level of insight, knowledge and caliber of the members (special shout out to Spec, Teddy, Q, Nishant, Kanmani , KD, imdeng and apologies for missing out others... don't want the list to run in pages). The information and the quick response time on the blog are amazing. Ironically, it is a dismal sign about the state of immigration affairs in US that an average person has to educate oneself so much to not trip the million hurdles on way to GC.

I wanted to discuss a few hypothesis/ questions which come to mind after the recent run-up in EB2 (I&C) category and the permanent lack of quality data from government agencies. I assume that CP (approx. 3 months processing time) would allow a number of EB2 (I&C) Jan filers (PD prior to 1/1/2009) to get GC in March/ April due to no retrogression in March (and maybe even April). I am sure that CO is well aware of this difference in USCIS and CP processing time.
a. If the dates do retrogress back to say July 2008 in the summer of 2012, how does DoS/ DHS justify issuance of GC to person with PD of Dec 2008 through CP but no GC for PD of July 2008 through AoS even though there was no delay in filing or lack of paperwork by the July 2008 AoS applicant? Does such an applicant (July 2008 AoS) have any legal recourse since such a person has been wrongfully denied GC while someone with later PD gets GC? To minimize such legal risk and create an alibi, can we expect RFE from USCIS for cases that are after the retrogressed date?
b. Does this mean that dates have to retrogress starting April (and not summer 2012 as widely expected right now) to avoid the situation in (a) above?
c. Alternatively, if the April bulletin does not retrogress, is it safe to assume that retrogression will be much closer to Jan 1, 2009 (cut-off date of Jan VB)?

I am inclined to believe that by law (or at least in spirit), GC is required be handed out in order of PD. Although in practical world, the strict enforcement of FIFO is difficult (timing differences of filing I-485, processing speed at service center/ of individual cases etc), I would assume that there shouldn’t be a material deviation from FIFO. Failure would lead to processing arbitrage as people who are most unlikely to get a GC in the current FY (eg: late 2009 or early 2010 PD) could opt for CP as it would give them a better shot at GC in current FY (even with the risks associated with CP vs AoS). Is there a way to switch between AoS and CP interchangeably multiple times after I-485 filing since that may prevent/ limit processing arbitrage? I know that you can switch processing (AoS to CP) prior to I-485 filing. Has anyone on the forum discussed legal recourse with an attorney if people with a later PD are approved GC than yours?

If retrogression is solely based on USCIS visa demand and DoS has no visibility into the USCIS, then CO would make the dates current rather than rely on a department he has no control over and lose visas. Even with a huge PD movement in remaining bulletins, only some of the new petitions would convert into actual visa demand based on USCIS processing times. So there is obviously more at play and I find it difficult to comprehend that there is no co-ordination between USCIS and Visa Office.

Has anyone modeled the number of projected GC filings (I-485 plus CP filings) based on the monthly bulletins? I am trying to figure out the potential cumulative GC filings until March 2012 leading to eventual I-485 inventory build-up and would appreciate if the gurus can provide tables/ data. This may help in fine tuning the models and assumptions once more concrete data (I-485 Inventory reports, Demand Data etc) is available and also provide clarity on next round of PD movement.

You asked for a response, but I think it has been covered pretty well already.

The INA does say (sort of) that approvals should be made in PD order.

INA 203(e) Order of Consideration. -

(1) Immigrant visas made available under subsection (a) or (b) shall be issued to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General (or in the case of special immigrants under section 101(a)(27)(D) , with the Secretary of State) as provided in section 204(a) .

The Visa Office has only one overriding mission - to ensure that no visa is wasted. They have been doing an exceptional job in recent years.

The disparity in processing times stems from the very different approaches by DOS and USCIS.

Since DOS "pre-process" applications, they can finish the process far more quickly when a PD becomes Current and USCIS do not have pre-adjudicated cases to finalize. There has been talk in the pat of introducing a Pre-Registration step for AOS, but nothing has come of it to date. Presumably this would allow items such as background checks and many RFEs to be processed prior to the PD becoming Current. Essentially it would be similar to the DOS system.

DOS cannot control USCIS processing efficiency - they can only be accountable for those cases which DOS is processing.

Given that USCIS have failed to process sufficient cases in the past, DOS would be foolish not to close out as many of their own case load as they can. The last time they could properly judge that was in 2007.

As long as the PD is Current and the approval is therefore legal, they cannot and should not be held accountable for USCIS failings or triumphs.

It is not a one-way street either. CP applicants are not eligible for the benefits of AP or EAD. For many, they cannot start work in the USA until a Visa is issued. That is not true of AOS applicants.

An individual can choose whether to pursue CP or AOS, knowing the pros and cons of each approach.

DOS can also have their own bottlenecks, if there are more applicants than interview slots available. For some Countries, that could be a factor.

Different cases takes different times to become "documentarily qualified". That is just a fact of life.

Particularly in EB2-IC, where the level of CP is very low, the numbers involved who might get approved with a later PD would be tiny anyway.

The fact is that more than enough applications have been generated by the VB movement to date to take care of the available visas for FY2012, whatever the scenario.

At some point, DOS will retrogress the Cut Off Dates to control the number of applicants who are eligible to be approved.

That retrogression will probably have a safety margin for USCIS processing efficiency.

As for making the dates Current, that is not going to happen. That would generate up to 100k total Inventory for EB2-IC IMO.

Life is unfair at times. Best get used to it.

[skpanda]

Could you plz share the link for NFAP report? Thanks!

Spec,

Though I am not savy enough to judge the OR being 0.42 or .75 etc, it is for sure that the demand destruction is huge atleast from the recent report by NFAP which I believe it mentioned that the H1-B refusals from India was as much as 40-50% since begining of 2009.I might be wrong but this is what I read in that atricle or from some article interpretations. While I feel bad for those who got stuck back in India with these RFE's & Rejections, it did actually impact the DD to significant extent.Just my 2cents.

[imdeng]

This is a good sign. In my opinion it is too early for DoS to be thinking of FY2013 - so if they are sending fee notices for Sep 2010 then they perhaps do intend to make the PD go to Sept 2010 in next couple months.

My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!

[Prabhas]

Could you plz share the link for NFAP report? Thanks!

Hey Panda,

I read it on immigration-law dot com. attached the document for your reference. Meantime I will try to get the interpretations that I read elsewhere but this doc should give you headstart.

[vizcard]

My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!

Can I ask what your specific PD is? My brother is also in Sept 2010 and I think he's around the 15th or 20th.

[vishnu]

My PD is Sep 30 EB2 I

[la_2002_ch]

what did you specifically check? Whether there were red flags?

They won't tell you about any red flags. All they told me was that the prints were processed the same day and returned to USCIS. The main thing to check is if the prints were clear enough for FBI to process them.

given that they have all my information in the system, if there were any red flags I m sure the police department must have curvlrd my home by now.

[skpanda]

Thanks Prabhas!

Hey Panda,

I read it on immigration-law dot com. attached the document for your reference. Meantime I will try to get the interpretations that I read elsewhere but this doc should give you headstart.

[vgraj1]

You asked for a response, but I think it has been covered pretty well already.

The INA does say (sort of) that approvals should be made in PD order.
Life is unfair at times. Best get used to it.

Life is unfair at times. Best get used to it --> Hi Spec, I didn't realize you are a philosopher too!