EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[GC-Utopic]

Only things you need for entry is AP+Passport. Whether you want your friend to send you a copy of the GC or the GC itself is really your choice. FedEx should be fine - from a safety point of view - you don't want to lose that card in the mail.

AFAIK, imdeng is wrong here, check with your lawyer again, but, once your 485 is approved you cannot use AP to enter, you need to go to consulate and get an immigrant stamp, entering with a card mailed to them is done by people before with no issues but its a risky move at POE, having an immigrant stamp is the best option, rest is upto your risk tolerance.

[Kanmani]

Whenever I-485 is approved for the applicant who is out of USA, the applicant cannot use the GC for entering US . It is just like Consular Processing , the CP-applicant will be stamped with immigrant visa in the passport and Physical GC is issued after entering USA.

[nishant2200]

Thank you SPec.

Nishant,

July 2007 was about lack of "Documentarily Qualified Demand" and DOS not believing that USCIS could adjudicate sufficient numbers as far as I am aware.

Going back to when the "new interpretation" started, I would concede that it is possible that it started in FY2007, but EB2 didn't see significant benefit until FY2008.

If you look at FY2007, EB1 received 26,806 visas, EB4 4,794 and EB5 793.

The available numbers to EB were 147,148 visas plus 7,312 recaptured visas.

If we just use the 147k figure, that means the EB1 allocation was 43,084 and the EB4 & EB5 allocation was 10,448 each.

Theoretical Spillover visas from EB1/4/5 would have been (43,084-26,806) + (10,448-4,794) + (10,448-793) = 31,587

Extra numbers from EB2-non IC raised this to 35,379.

EB2-C received 6,797 total visas in FY2007
EB2-I received 6,204 total visas in FY2007

EB3 received 77,667 visas in FY2007. Of those, EB3-I received 17,985 visas. It is possible there simply weren't enough EB2 cases that could be adjudicated in FY2007. It is slightly puzzling to understand how EB3-I could receive so many visas, unless EB-non IC also ran out of cases that could be adjudicated as well.


In FY2008, theoretical Spillover was 27,602.

EB2-C received 3.7k Spillover
EB2-I received 11.5k Spillover
In addition EB2-ROW used 11.4k Spillover and some were wasted.

EB3 approvals were in line with the total visas allocated to EB3.

[GC-Utopic]

Whenever I-485 is approved for the applicant who is out of USA, the applicant cannot use the GC for entering US . It is just like Consular Processing , the CP-applicant will be stamped with immigrant visa in the passport and Physical GC is issued after entering USA.

I concur completely with you on this, but you will find on other forums where many people outside USA when 485 approved entered with no issues with somebody mailing them the card, I think its a risky move, POE officer hv a valid reason not to admit you but its rarely implemented,,,jmho,,,

[nishant2200]

CO is building inventory for future so that they have a clear idea of how much demand is out there. Nothing wrong in making low hanging fruits available to USCIS.

Yes, it may sound unfair to some of us, which is also understandable. But I do think that even some lucky Jan filers may get approvals starting March while some Nov-Dec filers would be waiting.

Whatever date period is current, in that, although as pointed out by me earlier, CO believes that spillover visas is to be granted strictly in order of PD, I am pretty sure when it comes to USCIS processing, it's luck of the draw. It's not totally their fault, as the current process is variable because of mainly background checks and FP Scheduling, and as soon as an app is ready for approval and is with IO, he just goes ahead and hits the button. Ideal process would be that they make a queue of pre-adjudicated applications with inserts in order of PD into the queue at applicable spots even if the dates are current, and then around end of month, applicants are dequeued from that queue for a certain amount of visa numbers.

This is not going to happen though, so yes, I again maintain my lucky draw theory, and RD is important just because it makes your file eligible for the lucky draw sooner

[manzoorraza]

Reachme,

I am in the same situation and did check with my attorney (who is of decent repute) if this was something to worry about. They came back saying that this is normal for some cases and nothing to worry about; he clarified that this is due to a known glitch at USCIS and they have already acknowledged the same. Further, I was told, that the case would be processed as usual and at some point (in a couple of weeks) the status would start showing on the tracker and in the meantime I should expect the FP notice soon.

Hope this calms you down a bit...

I see in your signature that you're seeing LUDs online starting from 2/14. My notice date is 2/7, but still not able to see the case online. Should I contact someone for this?

[Desperate8]

I have heard that People check their FP status by calling FBI - How much reliable is that ?
Did anyone of you guys check that. If so what is the number to call and after how many weeks / days.


I have heard people saying TSC is slow, in case of Jan Filers EAD/AP/FP it was proven wrong, when do you think all 2008 PD cases will be processed - I am just getting your opinion on this.

[reachme_s]

Reachme,

I am in the same situation and did check with my attorney (who is of decent repute) if this was something to worry about. They came back saying that this is normal for some cases and nothing to worry about; he clarified that this is due to a known glitch at USCIS and they have already acknowledged the same. Further, I was told, that the case would be processed as usual and at some point (in a couple of weeks) the status would start showing on the tracker and in the meantime I should expect the FP notice soon.

Hope this calms you down a bit...

Thanks manzoorraza! Yes, it sure does! Lets hope it shows up soon..

[Kanmani]

Is it not offense to open other's mail in US?

Googled - It is a federal crime to open someone else's mail.

I concur completely with you on this, but you will find on other forums where many people outside USA when 485 approved entered with no issues with somebody mailing them the card, I think its a risky move, POE officer hv a valid reason not to admit you but its rarely implemented,,,jmho,,,

[la_2002_ch]

Yes you can check the FP processing status by calling FBI. I did the same by calling 304-625-5590.

I guess since its FBI customer service, it should be as reliable as it can be. I went for FP on Friday and called on Tuesday to check the status. So I guess 24-48 hours after the FP notice, should be good.

I have heard that People check their FP status by calling FBI - How much reliable is that ?
Did anyone of you guys check that. If so what is the number to call and after how many weeks / days.


I have heard people saying TSC is slow, in case of Jan Filers EAD/AP/FP it was proven wrong, when do you think all 2008 PD cases will be processed - I am just getting your opinion on this.

[kkruna]

New post from CM talks about 'low demand' theory. PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42?

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...arch-2012.html

[mesan123]

CM post looks promising...if his prediction is correct. i meant PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42 . then as he mentioned retrogression will be less and dates will start moving again in FY2013 first quater as they have to again build the inventory. may be the movement will be 1 to 3 months each bulletion

New post from CM talks about 'low demand' theory. PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42?

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...arch-2012.html

[nishant2200]

CM post looks promising...if his prediction is correct. i meant PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42 . then as he mentioned retrogression will be less and dates will start moving again in FY2013 first quater as they have to again build the inventory. may be the movement will be 1 to 3 months each bulletion

I agree, it made my day too

I have never got things the easy way, no lucky draws, no lotteries, no short lines, I am fully expecting myself to call USCIS around April 2nd week to request a SR to look at my case as it is past the 4 months processing time of NSC, and hence it is critical that dates remain current for me in rest of the FY!

[ismile]

This is my post, hoping you guys can guide me on this My empoyer emailed me to sign a compliance policy saying "USCIS requires employer to offer the Perm position to employee for atleast 12 months after the green card approval else there will be consequences when employee apply for the citizenship" is it true?

[Reader]

My company attorney does not have a clue on anything. For 245K, he did not know anything and had to get back to me after discussing with his boss. For checking the status violations, he does not agree that only the status violations after the most recent lawful admission will be checked. I had to take paid consulation with the famous attorney for clarifications.. Anyway...

Now, here is the question that I have to make a decision on whether / when to file extension for my H1 which is expiring on May 15th. If my 485 is approved and dependant's 485 is pending, what will be the status of H4 holder at that point. Even though her H4 - I94 would be a valid future date, would she accumulate unlawful presence if the 485 is denied later, few months after my 485 is approved. Please share your thoughts...

[nishant2200]

This is my post, hoping you guys can guide me on this My empoyer emailed me to sign a compliance policy saying "USCIS requires employer to offer the Perm position to employee for atleast 12 months after the green card approval else there will be consequences when employee apply for the citizenship" is it true?

this is bogus. there is no such compliance policy advertised by USCIS.

ur company just wants you to stick around at least for a year after GC and is resorting to measures like this.

[ismile]

Thank you nishant for your prompt reply.

[kolugc]

Thanks Kanmani and imdeng..!!

So when I go to India, its again not that straight forward... Once in India if I get my 485 approved, I have to head to Chennai and get it stamped.

Woww.... I thought I was done with this stamping...

But thanks once again....

Whenever I-485 is approved for the applicant who is out of USA, the applicant cannot use the GC for entering US . It is just like Consular Processing , the CP-applicant will be stamped with immigrant visa in the passport and Physical GC is issued after entering USA.

[mesan123]

Dont worry nishanth...you will be greened pretty soon...i feel strongly that you will get the card before you end up calling them ...

I agree, it made my day too

I have never got things the easy way, no lucky draws, no lotteries, no short lines, I am fully expecting myself to call USCIS around April 2nd week to request a SR to look at my case as it is past the 4 months processing time of NSC, and hence it is critical that dates remain current for me in rest of the FY!

[mygctracker]

Reader,

H4 becomes VOID after Primary AOS is approved. But if derivative applied for AOS, they would be covered by AOS status and not H4 status.

If Primary AOS is approved, then chances of derivative AOS denial are equal to zero.

Thanks

My company attorney does not have a clue on anything. For 245K, he did not know anything and had to get back to me after discussing with his boss. For checking the status violations, he does not agree that only the status violations after the most recent lawful admission will be checked. I had to take paid consulation with the famous attorney for clarifications.. Anyway...

Now, here is the question that I have to make a decision on whether / when to file extension for my H1 which is expiring on May 15th. If my 485 is approved and dependant's 485 is pending, what will be the status of H4 holder at that point. Even though her H4 - I94 would be a valid future date, would she accumulate unlawful presence if the 485 is denied later, few months after my 485 is approved. Please share your thoughts...

[AT2011]

Gurus,
One of my friends just received email & text from USCIS that her GC got approved.
PD - Nov 2007
RD - Dec 1, 2011
EAD approved - Feb 4th

My other friend has PD of April 22, 2007 and his application reached USCIS around Nov 14, 2011. His family got their EAD combo card around Jan 30th, 2012 but are still waiting for the GC approval.

I can't really figure out how exactly USCIS gives priority to what cases...

Amit

[mesan123]

It is not only priority date. you have to consider, both of them are current and may be your other friend 485 is not yet cleared, may be they are waiting on FBI clearence or someotehr thing, just because one person case is pending , they cant waste the visa number, they will give that visa number to whose ever date is current and the 485 is approved.

Gurus,
One of my friends just received email & text from USCIS that her GC got approved.
PD - Nov 2007
RD - Dec 1, 2011
EAD approved - Feb 4th

My other friend has PD of April 22, 2007 and his application reached USCIS around Nov 14, 2011. His family got their EAD combo card around Jan 30th, 2012 but are still waiting for the GC approval.

I can't really figure out how exactly USCIS gives priority to what cases...

Amit

[Kanmani]

Reader
You can enlighten you attorney with the below memo ( Page 3 )
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memo...k)_14jul08.pdf

[usernameisnotvalid]

I agree. The first part is bogus; there is not such law or requirement but second part has some truth in it - "There will be consequences when employee apply for the citizenship" - but again it depends. I won't worry about it though.

this is bogus. there is no such compliance policy advertised by USCIS.

ur company just wants you to stick around at least for a year after GC and is resorting to measures like this.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Kanmani and imdeng..!!

So when I go to India, its again not that straight forward... Once in India if I get my 485 approved, I have to head to Chennai and get it stamped.

Woww.... I thought I was done with this stamping...

But thanks once again....

Kolugc
U.S. Consulate General in Chennai will no longer process Immigrant Visa petitions as of January 1, 2012... ..http://chennai.usconsulate.gov/immigrantstous.html

You may need to visit Mumbai/Delhi Consulate for immigrant visa stamping . Just for information :-)