EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec, this is helpful. Good to know that it is not high, would have been quite cruel to wait so long for anything less than a certain outcome

immi2910, asankaran (Arun) - There is a cool observation that Veni had observed in 2011 posts. The product of the three multipliers (EB2/Total Perm, I-140 approval rate, Visas per I-140) comes out to be close to 1.
Spec's assumptions page has it close to 0.9 and immi2910's post on page 22 of this forum has it close to 1.1 so 1 is a convenient and not so bad approximation.
So if someone needed to have a rough estimate of time before their priority date became current a simple and dirty way is to lookup the number of people in front of you using PERM data posted by Spec and Veni (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI) and divide it by (SOFAD estimate + 5600). To make the approximation better you can add a porting estimate (6000) to the numerator.
Nothing fancy here Time (in years) = Demand / Supply per year
The analysis done by all the gurus makes it simple to use a multiplier of 1 for newbies like me Just thought someone might find it useful.

GhostWriter,

Clearly it isn't zero, but I don't think it is a very high number.

For practical purposes, I think the 32/28% reduction my figures already assume covers it.

There aren't that many reasons to deny an I-485. In many cases, the person could still CP instead, or clear the problem and reapply. For example if they have more than 180 days Status Violations/Unauthorized Employment.

For some it might be more difficult to CP, since AC21 doesn't apply to CP. In that case, they would have to get a new PERM and I-140 approval for the job they had moved to, assuming the original job offer no longer exists. They would still retain the original PD.

Even if that is the case, eventually I think most people will become an LPR, so the numbers become even smaller.

I hope that answers your question.

[asankaran]

Thanks Spec for the clarification. I tried to apply the data and formula for the month of August 2007.

"60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain."

As per PERM data
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ------ 251 ----- 85 ------- 8 --- 2,283

So if apply the assumption ((2283*.6)*8)*2.05 = 2246.47 * .85 = 1909

If I look at the chart Cut off Dates for various Levels in August 2007 without porting it is at 10302. Now if I add this number 1909 should it not be 12211. Instead I see it at 12475 on Sept 1. Is there is something I am missing ? I like all the assumptions you have included, hope the dependency factor is less.

I would like to use this data in finally creating a sort of inventory report and compare it with one released by USCIS later at the end of this year. If there are startling gaps then we can use that information to get the attention of the authorities.

Thanks again for all your effort.
Arun

Arun,

It is good thinking and essentially the sort of approach I used when I first started analyzing the figures.

It assumes that the USCIS Inventory is the entire universe of applications, which of course it isn't, and that all applications held by USCIS are in the Inventory.

As an example, Consular Processed applications need to be added to the figures (at different % for EB2 & EB3).

Additionally, the last USCIS Inventory does not include any PWMB, who still have to file an I-485 or CP application. For Jan 2007, that figure isn't very high, but it becomes a factor nearer the end of the current backlog.

Essentially, what I do is very similar when I convert PERM to I-485/CP numbers, but uses a few more assumptions. I've tried to lay them out in this post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

Welcome to the forum by the way.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for the clarification. I tried to apply the data and formula for the month of August 2007.

"60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain."

As per PERM data
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ------ 251 ----- 85 ------- 8 --- 2,283

So if apply the assumption ((2283*.6)*8)*2.05 = 2246.47 * .85 = 1909

If I look at the chart Cut off Dates for various Levels in August 2007 without porting it is at 10302. Now if I add this number 1909 should it not be 12211. Instead I see it at 12475 on Sept 1. Is there is something I am missing ? I like all the assumptions you have included, hope the dependency factor is less.

I would like to use this data in finally creating a sort of inventory report and compare it with one released by USCIS later at the end of this year. If there are startling gaps then we can use that information to get the attention of the authorities.

Thanks again for all your effort.
Arun

Arun,

Another good question.

I don't think you are necessarily missing anything. Your calculation is correct.

The Cut Off Dates chart uses a combination of known backlog from the DOS Demand figures (prorated to the monthly splits in the USCIS Inventory, which is slightly higher) and adds PWMB based on PERM using the formula above.

PWMB are defined as those whose PERM was Certified after August 17, 2007 and therefore could not have filed under the July 2007 VB. August 2007 is therefore a month where the figures are a combination of those known and those calculated.

I would have been amazed if the figures had matched exactly. It is within about 2%, which I would deem more than acceptable.

Whilst we all try our best, do realize that it is a fairly inexact science, because the data isn't great or necessarily complete.

It probably is worth reiterating to people that potential error margins are quite high, due to having to make multiple assumptions. That is why I didn't want to introduce another one for I-485 denial rate.

The numbers should be treated as qualitative and indicative, rather than quantitative.

I really don't mind if people don't agree with the assumptions, because their own might equally be correct.

On a limited basis, if someone has a strong opinion about some different numbers for the assumptions (with some explanation as to why), I am happy to run those figures and report the result to them.

Truthfully, no-one knows the real number. If they claim otherwise, they are either a liar or deluded . I certainly don't.

All I try to do is put my best thoughts out there, with some explanation of how the figures were arrived at.

PS - That reminds me, I need to upload some very small changes to the figures. For the technically minded, it is the difference between half of April and the 16 days that are actually left. It is only 28, but the numbers posted on the forum are different from those in my spreadsheet.

[asankaran]

Thanks, Spec. Now I understand the whole calculation process. Though I agree with the whole assumption application, my gut feeling says that they could drastically change as we are dealing with humans as X-factor.

It would become more clear once we get the demand details from July 2007 to Nov 2007. Probably then you could update the assumptions and re-run the report.

Arun,

Another good question.

I don't think you are necessarily missing anything. Your calculation is correct.

The Cut Off Dates chart uses a combination of known backlog from the DOS Demand figures (prorated to the monthly splits in the USCIS Inventory, which is slightly higher) and adds PWMB based on PERM using the formula above.

PWMB are defined as those whose PERM was Certified after August 17, 2007 and therefore could not have filed under the July 2007 VB. August 2007 is therefore a month where the figures are a combination of those known and those calculated.

I would have been amazed if the figures had matched exactly. It is within about 2%, which I would deem more than acceptable.

Whilst we all try our best, do realize that it is a fairly inexact science, because the data isn't great or necessarily complete.

It probably is worth reiterating to people that potential error margins are quite high, due to having to make multiple assumptions. That is why I didn't want to introduce another one for I-485 denial rate.

The numbers should be treated as qualitative and indicative, rather than quantitative.

I really don't mind if people don't agree with the assumptions, because their own might equally be correct.

On a limited basis, if someone has a strong opinion about some different numbers for the assumptions (with some explanation as to why), I am happy to run those figures and report the result to them.

Truthfully, no-one knows the real number. If they claim otherwise, they are either a liar or deluded . I certainly don't.

All I try to do is put my best thoughts out there, with some explanation of how the figures were arrived at.

PS - That reminds me, I need to upload some very small changes to the figures. For the technically minded, it is the difference between half of April and the 16 days that are actually left. It is only 28, but the numbers posted on the forum are different from those in my spreadsheet.

[qblogfan]

guys, I saw a huge number of approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs, at least 20-30. I think Mr.Co is planning to approve all the old cases before this end of year. I don't know what kind of visa numbers he is using, and I don't understand how he can assign so many visa numbers in the first month of this FY. It looks werid, but I hope all the old cases can be approved and the VB continues to move forward!

[nishant2200]

Yeah I am bit confused too. Where is he getting the numbers up-front from, what's going on. Defies explanation.

guys, I saw a huge number of approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs, at least 20-30. I think Mr.Co is planning to approve all the old cases before this end of year. I don't know what kind of visa numbers he is using, and I don't understand how he can assign so many visa numbers in the first month of this FY. It looks werid, but I hope all the old cases can be approved and the VB continues to move forward!

[nishant2200]

Yes. My current take is at two months for next VB, unless we see some new data point coming up or some logic by someone which can convince for something else.

and btw, really feel your situation. I am on 11/8/2007 and cursing my luck, you are on 11/1/2007 itself!

I realized for first time meaning of: So Near Yet so Far.

Hello Gurus,

My PD is nov 1 2007 (EB2). Do you guys think I will have a chance to file for EAD next month?

Thanks,

[veni001]

Yes. My current take is at two months for next VB, unless we see some new data point coming up or some logic by someone which can convince for something else.

and btw, really feel your situation. I am on 11/8/2007 and cursing my luck, you are on 11/1/2007 itself!

I realized for first time meaning of: So Near Yet so Far.

Hello Gurus,

My PD is nov 1 2007 (EB2). Do you guys think I will have a chance to file for EAD next month?

Thanks,

Since November VB did not indicated any chance for immediate retro, at least next VB should see some +ve movement for EB2IC.

PS: 1,8,15 and 22 are not good numbers for immigration!

[tnayar78]

All GURUS one silly question

For people who are current in November, once they file 485's when would the numbers start showing in Inventory/Demand Data. Some time next year after February after they are processed. Does USCIS maintain any records on number of applications recevied for AOS as they receive tham, or they would start counting only once they are processed.

[skpanda]

Atleast 3 months. AOS applications will be included in the USCIS I485 inventory. They release this every quarter (usually). Last one that was released was as of 26 May 2011. That is of no use to us at this point. A new Inventory report is due any time.

Below is the link to the USCIS inventory:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

All GURUS one silly question

For people who are current in November, once they file 485's when would the numbers start showing in Inventory/Demand Data. Some time next year after February after they are processed. Does USCIS maintain any records on number of applications recevied for AOS as they receive tham, or they would start counting only once they are processed.

[nishant2200]

there are two different things:

1. Demand Data : here the numbers can only show up once the 485 is pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified. DOS is owner of this report. This includes CP cases also.

2. I-485 Pending Inventory Report : here the numbers can show up just because an 485 application came in and is awaiting approval, denial or user action based on RFE. This report is updated intermittently but not on a monthly basis, at least for the public consumption. USCIS is owner of this report. This does not have CP as it can't. CP is not AOS with USCIS. It's with NVC.

1 is more accurate for DOS to move dates, 2 is I believe an approximation they may use.

I am not sure what mechanism DOS has put in place to know what is "enough demand", how much to move dates to get that, and how long to continue. For eg, the demand which will be obtained due to Nov VB, will not be known by the time Dec VB is to be released, so how do they go about it.

edit: once they get to know Nov VB demand completely, by the time they go for January VB in December, they can possibly do a simple math that 3.5 months lead to n number of receipts, so how much one week would yield. Also the Oct VB movement has July 15 to August 15 2k7 also in it, which has been out there earlier, but seems to me that DOS is considering that also new demand and thinks most people in that timeline could not apply. just a theory. also 3.5 months, not 3 or 4, means they do have some sort of idea in mind.

All GURUS one silly question

For people who are current in November, once they file 485's when would the numbers start showing in Inventory/Demand Data. Some time next year after February after they are processed. Does USCIS maintain any records on number of applications recevied for AOS as they receive tham, or they would start counting only once they are processed.

[tnayar78]

there are two different things:

1. Demand Data : here the numbers can only show up once the 485 is pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified.

2. I-485 Pending Inventory Report : here the numbers can show up just because an 485 application came in and is awaiting approval, denial or user action based on RFE. This report is updated intermittently but not on a monthly basis, at least for the public consumption.

1 is more accurate for DOS to move dates, 2 is I believe an approximation they may use.

I am not sure what mechanism DOS has put in place to know what is "enough demand", how much to move dates to get that, and how long to continue. For eg, the demand which will be obtained due to Nov VB, will not be known by the time Dec VB is to be released, so how do they go about it.

Nishant, appreaciate your reply

So as DOS is not sure of the demand that is going to come in for November they have to still look at demand which thay have currently i.e., October and if that is taken as baseline dates should move by 3-3.5 months or could it be other way as dates are moved by 3.5 months already they would wait for couple of months and start moving for 6-7 months in consecutinve bulletins as it was done now.

[nishant2200]

I edited earlier post to put forth a theory on this.

Honestly, this is a conundrum. Others chime in if you have some theories or some feelings or logic on this.

I do feel that the earlier they move, there's much better of chances of large date movement, the more they delay and wait, it will be smaller movement.

Nishant, appreaciate your reply

So as DOS is not sure of the demand that is going to come in for November they have to still look at demand which thay have currently i.e., October and if that is taken as baseline dates should move by 3-3.5 months or could it be other way as dates are moved by 3.5 months already they would wait for couple of months and start moving for 6-7 months in consecutinve bulletins as it was done now.

[skpanda]

How much they will move in future is anybody's guess.

practically speaking they should move in next few months rather than wait for 2 months and then move. If they wait for 2 months and then move there are 2 problems,

a. All people who are current will start calling USCIS and their senators about their green cards (even though they know that USCIS is just building pipeline).
b. USCIS will not be able to approve PD wise and will be approving applications randomly.

Nishant, appreaciate your reply

So as DOS is not sure of the demand that is going to come in for November they have to still look at demand which thay have currently i.e., October and if that is taken as baseline dates should move by 3-3.5 months or could it be other way as dates are moved by 3.5 months already they would wait for couple of months and start moving for 6-7 months in consecutinve bulletins as it was done now.

[nishant2200]

Excellent points Sir! Can't disagree with it. Had not thought of b. myself. b. is a very strong point. This is advantage of collective brainstorming.

How much they will move in future is anybody's guess.

practically speaking they should move in next few months rather than wait for 2 months and then move. If they wait for 2 months and then move there are 2 problems,

a. All people who are current will start calling USCIS and their senators about their green cards (even though they know that USCIS is just building pipeline).
b. USCIS will not be able to approve PD wise and will be approving applications randomly.

[Spectator]

there are two different things:

1. Demand Data : here the numbers can only show up once the 485 is pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified. DOS is owner of this report. This includes CP cases also.

2. I-485 Pending Inventory Report : here the numbers can show up just because an 485 application came in and is awaiting approval, denial or user action based on RFE. This report is updated intermittently but not on a monthly basis, at least for the public consumption. USCIS is owner of this report. This does not have CP as it can't. CP is not AOS with USCIS. It's with NVC.

1 is more accurate for DOS to move dates, 2 is I believe an approximation they may use.

I am not sure what mechanism DOS has put in place to know what is "enough demand", how much to move dates to get that, and how long to continue. For eg, the demand which will be obtained due to Nov VB, will not be known by the time Dec VB is to be released, so how do they go about it.

Just to add a little information, which might be useful.

For the USCIS Inventory, USCIS have previously stated in a reply to the Ombudsman that an I-485 is only shown in the Inventory IF the underlying I-140 supporting it is APPROVED.

Given that most new filings of I-485 by EB2-IC will already have an approved I-140, they should appear in the numbers very quickly, although the Report isn't published very often, I would hope that these numbers are shared with DOS on a regular basis.

Of course, the Demand Data is a totally different situation; that needs the I-485 to be adjudicated and a lot of new approvals will never appear on any Demand Data Report. I don't think that is going to be very useful at all.

[yesman]

As long as you have EAD or H1 you can join anytime. Or you can join after obtaining GC.



Yours is a bit long shot to get GC this year. But its quite possible that you may be able to file 485 this year (i.e. 2012)

Thanks Q, When you say 2012 is that FY 2012 or merely calendar year 2012? What I'm asking is will I have to wait for 2013 quota before the dates progress into Apr 2008? Or will it happen in the forthcoming 3-4 months?

On a general note, it would be very helpful to capture in the beginning of the thread what the Guru's expect the movement to be each month going forward for the next 10-12 months with some explanation of the rationale behind the thinking.

For example:
Nov 2011 to March 2012 - Dates will reach March 2008 to build demand pipeline
Apr 2012 to June 2012 Dates will retrogress to somewhere between Nov 2007 to Feb 2008
July 2012 to Sep 2012 - Dates will start to move again?

Obviously the dates and predictions in my example may be completely bogus but that's where your extensive experience in analyzing the models would help and make the predictions closer to reality. Thanks!

[yesman]

For 4/3/2008, Yes, this exists.

Thanks Nishant! Can you or someone throw some light on when I'd get to file 485 if I miss it before Mar 2012 when the pipeline is being built up. Will I have to wait till after August 2012? Any predictions for what will be the progression of events for people whose dates don't become current in the next few months before the dates retrogress again would be helpful. Thanks again!

[nishant2200]

Thanks Nishant! Can you or someone throw some light on when I'd get to file 485 if I miss it before Mar 2012 when the pipeline is being built up. Will I have to wait till after August 2012? Any predictions for what will be the progression of events for people whose dates don't become current in the next few months before the dates retrogress again would be helpful. Thanks again!

April 2008 is the last month that falls into the 25k SOFAD + 5k buffer sceanario. I am not taking into account Porting. I don't think DOS should take porting into account when making pipeline, as porting is just unpredictable and random. Unfortunately April 2008 also falls into the buffer range.

For April 2008 AOS people to have a real chance of getting a GC in FY 2012, they have to get (scramble in) their applications in at least by Q3 mid or ending. Now how will they achieve that.

Considering that for just example sake: they have indeed somehow reserved 5400 visa numbers for the Oct VB move to July 15th 2007, and they don't consider people in July 15th 2007 to August 17th 2007 to be existing demand i.e. most of them could not apply last time around and missed the bus.

Then as skpanda pointed out earlier above, due to the reason a. and more due to b., they really have only 3-4 months max to have new intake taken in, before these cases also become ripe. Technically, once your 485 falls outside of the processing times advertised by the service center, you can call and ask about status and what's going on.

Now to counter that, I think they really might release visa numbers out of those 5400 plus any quarterly spillover or any hidden FB spillover which we don't know yet (I really dont know where they are going to get these numbers from, but seems they do have them or are pretty sure of a pathway to have them in Q1), to the easily approvable demand of April 15th 2007 to July 15th 2007, and by the time the newer 485s become ripe and even if USCIS offier sends file to ask for visa number, they just genuinely dont have any number allocated, instead they will put that file into their documentarily qualified queue and show up in demand data, and won't be able to approve 485 randomly without ordering of PD. Maybe that is why we are seeing a lot of approvals already for people who became current in Oct VB, i.e. they really want to use up that 5,400 visa numbers fast.

I personally have not completely understood the gameplan of DOS. I did point out that in FB based last FY, F2A category they played similar idea, they moved in Q1, grabbed inventory and then retrogressed back. Similar reasons were cited in few of those VB, that they are moving to generate demand and at some point it will retrogress. The puzzle is that in FB, they have a much better idea on docuentarily qualified demand because most of those cases are CP and is handled by NVC. For EB, most of the applications are AOS, and until a person applies for AOS, you never really know.

These are obviously some thoughts, you are all free to enhance to these thoughts, point out fallacies, or propose your theories.

[sandeep11]

Nishant,

True, even I was thinking the same, Why Nov1 and why 3.5 months ( and not 3 or 4 ), somehow I believe they have something cooking with the numbers.

But if we think on the positive note:

- they accepted that they would move the dates further
- They wouldn't get the count for Nov VB until end of November, hence they would move the dates further (atleast the next VB)

-Sandy

I edited earlier post to put forth a theory on this.

Honestly, this is a conundrum. Others chime in if you have some theories or some feelings or logic on this.

I do feel that the earlier they move, there's much better of chances of large date movement, the more they delay and wait, it will be smaller movement.

[yesman]

April 2008 is the last month that falls into the 25k SOFAD + 5k buffer sceanario. I am not taking into account Porting. I don't think DOS should take porting into account when making pipeline, as porting is just unpredictable and random. Unfortunately April 2008 also falls into the buffer range.

For April 2008 AOS people to have a real chance of getting a GC in FY 2012, they have to get (scramble in) their applications in at least by Q3 mid or ending. Now how will they achieve that.

Considering that for just example sake: they have indeed somehow reserved 5400 visa numbers for the Oct VB move to July 15th 2007, and they don't consider people in July 15th 2007 to August 17th 2007 to be existing demand i.e. most of them could not apply last time around and missed the bus.

Then as skpanda pointed out earlier above, due to the reason a. and more due to b., they really have only 3-4 months max to have new intake taken in, before these cases also become ripe. Technically, once your 485 falls outside of the processing times advertised by the service center, you can call and ask about status and what's going on.

Now to counter that, I think they really might release visa numbers out of those 5400 plus any quarterly spillover or any hidden FB spillover which we don't know yet (I really dont know where they are going to get these numbers from, but seems they do have them or are pretty sure of a pathway to have them in Q1), to the easily approvable demand of April 15th 2007 to July 15th 2007, and by the time the newer 485s become ripe and even if USCIS offier sends file to ask for visa number, they just genuinely dont have any number allocated, instead they will put that file into their documentarily qualified queue and show up in demand data, and won't be able to approve 485 randomly without ordering of PD. Maybe that is why we are seeing a lot of approvals already for people who became current in Oct VB, i.e. they really want to use up that 5,400 visa numbers fast.

I personally have not completely understood the gameplan of DOS. I did point out that in FB based last FY, F2A category they played similar idea, they moved in Q1, grabbed inventory and then retrogressed back. Similar reasons were cited in few of those VB, that they are moving to generate demand and at some point it will retrogress. The puzzle is that in FB, they have a much better idea on docuentarily qualified demand because most of those cases are CP and is handled by NVC. For EB, most of the applications are AOS, and until a person applies for AOS, you never really know.

These are obviously some thoughts, you are all free to enhance to these thoughts, point out fallacies, or propose your theories.

Hi Nishanth, Thanks for the rather detailed response. I've had to go over your response a couple of time to kinda understand since I'm very green when it comes to some of the abbreviations that are frequently used in this forum

But my understanding is that most of your email is talking about the possibility of getting a GC in FY 2012. My concern is more about being able to submit a 485 and how soon I would be able to do that. The motivation is to be able to submit the 485 and be in a position to switch employers 6 months from that day. I have a much higher tolerance towards actually waiting for the GC once the 485 is filed.

I realize that Apr 2008 is in the buffer zone and that DOS might move the cutoff dates just short of that by Mar 2012. And then the dates may even retrogress. But my question what happens after that? When do the dates start moving again?

[nishant2200]

Hi Nishanth, Thanks for the rather detailed response. I've had to go over your response a couple of time to kinda understand since I'm very green when it comes to some of the abbreviations that are frequently used in this forum

But my understanding is that most of your email is talking about the possibility of getting a GC in FY 2012. My concern is more about being able to submit a 485 and how soon I would be able to do that. The motivation is to be able to submit the 485 and be in a position to switch employers 6 months from that day. I have a much higher tolerance towards actually waiting for the GC once the 485 is filed.

I realize that Apr 2008 is in the buffer zone and that DOS might move the cutoff dates just short of that by Mar 2012. And then the dates may even retrogress. But my question what happens after that? When do the dates start moving again?

Dates move again like this FY, in the beginning of FY 2013. They are going to set a precedent this FY 2012 for this situation.

If you get lucky, and they find out in Q4 that there is lot of excess visas and not enough demand, they may move dates far into 2008 so that they can approve few hundred CP cases. In that case many people would be able to file 485.

[yesman]

Dates move again like this FY, in the beginning of FY 2013. They are going to set a precedent this FY 2012 for this situation.

If you get lucky, and they find out in Q4 that there is lot of excess visas and not enough demand, they may move dates far into 2008 so that they can approve few hundred CP cases. In that case many people would be able to file 485.

Thank's for clarifying that! That's what I was looking for. It's probably an obvious thing for someone that has been following the movement for a while but like I said, I'm pretty new here. Also in the context of this discussion does Q4 start in July or Oct?

[nishant2200]

Thank's for clarifying that! That's what I was looking for. It's probably an obvious thing for someone that has been following the movement for a while but like I said, I'm pretty new here. Also in the context of this discussion does Q4 start in July or Oct?

Q4 FY 2012 is: July 2012, August 2012, September 2012.

[imdeng]

This has been a frequent argument that USCIS is unable to do FIFO - and while this might have been true before, I am not sure whether this hold true now. Do we have continuing evidence of it? I would imagine that in today's automated environment, it should not be difficult to enforce a non-random priority procedure.

It would be fair for USCIS to consider the batch of 485s that come after a PD extension on the basis of the receipt date of 485. I hope they do that.

b. USCIS will not be able to approve PD wise and will be approving applications randomly.