EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kd2008]

Folks, looking at trackitt it looks like PERM approvals are picking up compared to January but so are denials and audits.

Is this going to be a redux of Aug 2008 blanket auditing?

Is it an election year thing?

[imdeng]

Same procedure as H1, present your passport and AP card at POE. They will likely make you go through a secondary inspection - essentially a short interview - nothing to worry about - it just adds some time to your overall wait. Thats it.

Thx Imdeng/Leo4,

My confusion or misunderstanding was I have to HAVE Ead and AP and use it to enter US if my visa is not stamped. I didn't know that I can still use my H1 and AP to enter US instead of EAD.
By the way what forms/procedure - need to follow at the port of entry if using AP and onot having stamped H1 ?

[khushraho]

My take on this, better stay on H1B until 485 is approved.

Simple reason if Primary 485 gets denied it makes whole out of status immediately. Where as if you stay on H1B, you are in status-quo. We all were waiting on H1B so long, why not some more time rather than taking risk.
--------------
I was under this same imp;ression till I read that . If Ron's post is true,This is what he is saying

: Extension after 6 years is contigent upon your 485 approval.
: As long as it is pending , you are okay.
: The moment it gets denied, your H1 also gets automatically invalid.
: So you are out of status either way.

This helps only those guys who are inside their first 6 years. Those folks can go back to their H1 status.

[gc_usa]

My take on this, better stay on H1B until 485 is approved.

Simple reason if Primary 485 gets denied it makes whole out of status immediately. Where as if you stay on H1B, you are in status-quo. We all were waiting on H1B so long, why not some more time rather than taking risk.
--------------
I was under this same imp;ression till I read that . If Ron's post is true,This is what he is saying

: Extension after 6 years is contigent upon your 485 approval.
: As long as it is pending , you are okay.
: The moment it gets denied, your H1 also gets automatically invalid.
: So you are out of status either way.

This helps only those guys who are inside their first 6 years. Those folks can go back to their H1 status.

Ron is wrong, I think. If I 485 gets rejected but your I 140 is valid , your H1B is good because its based on I 140 . If your I 140 gets rejected then H1b based on that I 140 also in trouble. Once you pass 180 days I 140 withdraw from ex employer does not matter.

[Spectator]

Spec
Is there any consistency in the number of AOS Vs CP over the years ? (IC alone)

Spec, I think this post went unnoticed, so reposting it .

Kanmani,

Yes I did miss it.

Here is the CP rate for EB2-IC (I think that is what you are interested in) for the past:

FY ------- China ---- India
FY2000 -- 2.63% -- 11.52%
FY2001 -- 3.77% -- 16.18%
FY2002 -- 3.07% -- 12.79%
FY2003 -- 5.51% -- 12.31%
FY2004 -- 0.94% -- 21.18%
FY2005 -- 1.20% --- 3.22%
FY2006 -- 2.15% --- 3.90%
FY2007 -- 1.24% --- 3.34%
FY2008 -- 1.11% --- 1.20%
FY2009 -- 1.18% --- 0.74%
FY2010 -- 1.08% --- 0.51%

I don't know the reason for the high level before FY2005, but I suspect it was due to the LC backlogs and USCIS processing inefficiencies.

[tatikonda]

Hi Guys,

I found this link, which is interesting .
many of you guys may already knew it ..

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...off-dates.html

Regards
Tatikonda

[khushraho]

@gc_usa

You are right..It is on 140..See what he is saying
"
The second reason is a concern that if the applicant’s I-485 is denied, the applicant can revert to H-1B status. We believe this to be a specious argument also. Most I-485 denials result from I-140 denials. If your I-140 has been approved, the odds of your I-485 being denied drop to almost zero. The two remaining reasons for I-485 denials are status violations prior to filing and fraud. Both of these reasons impact H-1B validity as well and if an I-485 is denied for either reason, it is doubtful that the applicant would be allowed to resume H-1B status."

[kumar78]

If you are Primary then your PD field should show your actual PD. Anything else needs follow up with USCIS I guess.

Thanks, will follow up with attorney and USCIS.

Appreciate your help!

[GreenMania]

I don't think one can maintain H1B when re-entering using AP. I am traveling to India next month and I am still not decided if I should get my Visa stamped. I will be happy if I can avoid the hassle of getting Visa stamped.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_aostrv.html

Same procedure as H1, present your passport and AP card at POE. They will likely make you go through a secondary inspection - essentially a short interview - nothing to worry about - it just adds some time to your overall wait. Thats it.

[Kanmani]

I feel this I-485 denial and H1b invalid thereafter still remains unexplained. Except Ron, nonbody has touched this topic .

I agree with gc_usa even if I-485 is denied, I-140 remains valid until revokation. In a situation when I-140 is revoked by the employer, then the existing H1b is protected by AC21 for the said period.

My take on this, better stay on H1B until 485 is approved.

Simple reason if Primary 485 gets denied it makes whole out of status immediately. Where as if you stay on H1B, you are in status-quo. We all were waiting on H1B so long, why not some more time rather than taking risk.
--------------
I was under this same imp;ression till I read that . If Ron's post is true,This is what he is saying

: Extension after 6 years is contigent upon your 485 approval.
: As long as it is pending , you are okay.
: The moment it gets denied, your H1 also gets automatically invalid.
: So you are out of status either way.

This helps only those guys who are inside their first 6 years. Those folks can go back to their H1 status.

[tatikonda]

Hi Gurus,

According to this article, it is better if USCIS does not approve i-485 soon ?? Correct !!

As, if USCIS does not approve many I-485's, DOS would assume that demand is low and it would further move cutoff dates,
but looks like USCIS is approving many cases, which might cause is stall/retrogress in April VB, is my assumptions correct ?

Also, the article said that, [ QUOTE]"So far this fiscal year, the USCIS has approved about 20% fewer cases at this point than they had approved at the same time last year. This means that "demand" is 20% below what it was at the same time last year." [/QUOTE]

what does these above statement mean !!
Please help us understanding above statement ..

Thank you

Hi Guys,

I found this link, which is interesting .
many of you guys may already knew it ..

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...off-dates.html

Regards
Tatikonda

[khushraho]

If your I-140 has been approved, the odds of your I-485 being denied drop to almost zero
--------------
His article is based on this assumption. What are the other possible reasons for 485 denials other than 140 issues?

[gc_usa]

@gc_usa

You are right..It is on 140..See what he is saying
"
The second reason is a concern that if the applicant’s I-485 is denied, the applicant can revert to H-1B status. We believe this to be a specious argument also. Most I-485 denials result from I-140 denials. If your I-140 has been approved, the odds of your I-485 being denied drop to almost zero. The two remaining reasons for I-485 denials are status violations prior to filing and fraud. Both of these reasons impact H-1B validity as well and if an I-485 is denied for either reason, it is doubtful that the applicant would be allowed to resume H-1B status."

He is lawyer and may know better than me but If I 485 get rejected because of some medical condition , They can't reject H1b . No where INS says that if person has certain medical condition reject H1b . It is a different story that INS can put person in proceeding to remove status.

But can't reject H1b. There is a public charge check with I 485 which is not there with H1b. You may get rejected and not allowed to adjust status but still can remain as non immigrant.

Simple thing, even if person has HIV no one stop him/her coming on H1b or any visa because no medical check, but they can't get green card and live here ... its a different story some Eb3 may have to live here 30 years

Two thing either these lawyers are stupids or they want to put ambiguous information on their site and have people advertise their article and debate and finally come to them to get legal advise and milk money. Its pure marketing concept.

[gc_usa]

If your I-140 has been approved, the odds of your I-485 being denied drop to almost zero
--------------
His article is based on this assumption. What are the other possible reasons for 485 denials other than 140 issues?

There are plenty of other reasons where I 485 can get rejected, it I 140 is main then why don't they approve GC after I 140 approval.......

[khushraho]

Good quesiton...No idea :-) . I wish they do..

[usernameisnotvalid]

hmm...This is a wrong argument. Let me stretch it further:

95% H1Bs are potential immigrants (GC), why they don't give GC with H1Bs?

It is a multi-step process. I am sure there are valid reasons for this.

There are plenty of other reasons where I 485 can get rejected, it I 140 is main then why don't they approve GC after I 140 approval.......

[gc_usa]

hmm...This is a wrong argument. Let me stretch it further:

95% H1Bs are potential immigrants (GC), why they don't give GC with H1Bs?

It is a multi-step process. I am sure there are valid reasons for this.

Where in INS books it says 95% h1b are potential gc applicant ? Law doesnot go by your number. You will find many reasons in INS to reject I 485. Now tell me who is wrong and who is right....

[vizcard]

There are plenty of other reasons where I 485 can get rejected, it I 140 is main then why don't they approve GC after I 140 approval.......

Employment based GCs are not the only way to get one. The I140 is required through the EB route. The I485 is AOS, where all routes (family, Employment,etc) come together. In theory they do approve it right away if you can file concurrently.

hmm...This is a wrong argument. Let me stretch it further:

95% H1Bs are potential immigrants (GC), why they don't give GC with H1Bs?

It is a multi-step process. I am sure there are valid reasons for this.

They don't give GCs with H1Bs because that's not the intent of the H1B. If they do make the H1B similar to the GC, it will not be possible for immigrants to get H1Bs. So it will almost force you to return to your home country.

It is a multi-step process, but there is definitely an opportunity to streamline it further. There is no reason why it has to bounce around different departments - DOL, USCIS, DOS, USCIS...There is definitely a better way.

[tatikonda]

Q, Spec, Nishant, Kamani and Other Gurus,

Please respond to this thread.
Share your thoughts on April VB.

Thanks

Hi Gurus,

According to this article, it is better if USCIS does not approve i-485 soon ?? Correct !!

As, if USCIS does not approve many I-485's, DOS would assume that demand is low and it would further move cutoff dates,
but looks like USCIS is approving many cases, which might cause is stall/retrogress in April VB, is my assumptions correct ?

Also, the article said that, "So far this fiscal year, the USCIS has approved about 20% fewer cases at this point than they had approved at the same time last year. This means that "demand" is 20% below what it was at the same time last year."

what does these above statement mean !!
Please help us understanding above statement ..

Thank you

[imdeng]

Here are the results of some useless time wasting on trackitt:

1. Ratio of India and China in this round of inventory building is completely insane:
a) Number of EB2I Primary cases filed in 2012: 696
b) Number of EB2C Primary cases filed in 2012: 27
I do realize that perhaps EB2C folks don't use trackitt as much as EB2I folks - still 696 vs 27!!

2. EAD/AP times are all over the place. People have gotten EAD in as little as 19 days. Most people fall between 40-60 days though.

3. EB2I Primary filings in recent months:
Feb'12: 216 (so far)
Jan'12: 487
Dec'11: 435
Nov'11: 375
Oct'11: 125

Considering the peak filing time for Feb is gone, it does seem like 2009 has a sparse density especially compared to latter half of 2007 and early 2008 density.

[Spectator]

Considering the peak filing time for Feb is gone, it does seem like 2009 has a sparse density especially compared to latter half of 2007 and early 2008 density.

I think it is too early to reach that conclusion.

It takes about 3 months for people to add cases to Trackitt for any given VB month. The numbers on Trackitt are actually quite high for only 14 days.

[nishant2200]

Q, Spec, Nishant, Kamani and Other Gurus,

Please respond to this thread.
Share your thoughts on April VB.

Thanks

Based on rapid pace of approvals which we are currently seeing by USCIS, if that pace continues, which I feel it will, I feel that dates will stall in April Visa Bulletin. At the most they may move by <= 4 months, same as the March Visa Bulletin. This is my current prediction for April VB.

Of course anything is possible, nothing is set in stone with USCIS, DOS.

[Reader]

.......................

[Spectator]

With the greatest respect to Ron Gotcher, he is clearly talking out of his bottom when he says

So far this fiscal year, the USCIS has approved about 20% fewer cases at this point than they had approved at the same time last year.

Using USCIS own published figures for FY2011 and prorating Q2 to the end of January, then adding on 10-15% CP cases gives visas use by the end of January 2011 of 25-26% of the total available.

CO told us earlier that they had used 34% of available visas part way through January and we can safely assume they reached the 36% maximum by the end of January.

In Q1 and Q2 FY2011, USCIS had only approved 37% of the numbers they did for the whole FY.

This is because quarterly spillover has operated this year, while spillover was not released until May in FY2011.

So rather than a 20% reduction, there is a 10% increase in visas used at the same point.

[fedupwithgc]

I read Ron's newsletter today and I also feel that this year USCIS is doing better than last year and not slow like 20% mentioned in the newsletter. But he gets information from more reliable resources I believe and that puts my assumptions questionable.