EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[imdeng]

A Trackitt user got greened in 37 days. PD: 12/20/2007, RD: 01/04/2012. The guy believes that his case was processed so quickly because he did not apply for EAD/AP. In any case, we now have our first Jan filer approved. This is weird considering there are so many Nov and Dec filers still waiting.
Link to details if you are interested: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigrat.../i485-eb/26152

[eb2may2008]

Guru's,

My PD is 23 May 2008. I filed for AOS/EAD on Jan 2012 and RD is 12 Jan 2012. I received biometrics appointment notification for March 1 2012. I am planning to do a walk in before the scheduled date. How soon can i go for a walk in.

[suninphx]

Common Problem with H1B Employee's Relocation

H1B LCA Update vs. H1B Amendment

As described above, one of the common problems faced by H1B consulting employees is a USCIS site visit following work relocation. The USCIS is not made aware of the filing of a new LCA for the new worksite location, and the investigator, therefore, goes to the original worksite.

It is becoming increasingly clear that it is no longer safe to rely solely on updating the LCA in many instances when an H1B employee changes work locations. In addition to concerns about site visits, we have also begun to see new wording in USCIS requests for evidence (RFEs), asking for proof of H1B amendments for any relocation of the employee during the H1B petition validity period. The General Counsel of the USCIS California Service Center also has publicly indicated the opinion that an amended H1B is required in addition to obtaining a new LCA. It is possible that more definitive guidance on this matter will be released by the USCIS later in 2012, but this is not a certainty.

Background on Filing LCA Amendments for H1Bs

The legal issues on the appropriate procedures for relocating H1B employees are somewhat complex and beyond the scope of this article. For many years it generally was understood that H1B workers could be relocated based on updated LCAs. The USCIS policy, however, is clearly moving to a more restrictive interpretation.

When planning for 2012 and beyond, therefore, employers who do not wish to battle the USCIS on this matter should shift from the traditional practice of relying on LCA updates when moving their employees. Many companies are reluctant to adopt the practice of filing an H1B amendment, as it is often administratively impractical, and is significantly more expensive. However, without an H1B amendment, there is increased legal exposure for both the employer and the employee if the USCIS determines that an employer should have amended the petition.

Reader,

You can READ the full article here http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html VOL. XVIII, no. 06; Feb 2012, week 2)

Some more information here ....http://www.murthy.com/news/n_revamh.html

Kanmani,

Thanks for this link. Sensible approach by Murthy is to 'identify trends and make necessary changes'.
As for me , one more reason for moving to EAD. I hope there are no such restrictions (yet) for EAD based employment.

Update: when I read both articles , it seems there is no clear guideline still. And that is what my lawyer told me couple of months back. Per him such drastic shift in policy will not be so easy.

[asankaran]

Recently my wife and daughter went to India to get H4 stamping and it was successful. I had few months back relocated from location A to location B and my employer filed just updated the LCA. Some of the attorneys seem to scare but I don't think you may have to worry too much about this. I read that California Service Center was scrutinizing more on this, so folks filing H1 petitions at CSC may have to be extra careful.

Kanmani,

Thanks for this link. Sensible approach by Murthy is to 'identify trends and make necessary changes'.
As for me , one more reason for moving to EAD. I hope there are no such restrictions (yet) for EAD based employment.

Update: when I read both articles , it seems there is no clear guideline still. And that is what my lawyer told me couple of months back. Per him such drastic shift in policy will not be so easy.

[Spectator]

I know some people are interested in the level of new applications, approvals, where those approvals are from and what date the approval PD is.

I am thinking of adding this data to the FACTS & DATA area and keeping it updated, if it is of interest to people.

Here's the recent data . Let me know whether you think it is a good idea or not and whether you would look at it.

Applications Submitted Since October 2011 ------------------------------------------- % Applications Submitted Since October 2011

PD -------------------- Total --- NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC ............... Visa Bulletin --------------- NSC ------ TSC ------ CSC ------ VSC
FY2011 ------------------- 29 ---- 11 ---- 18 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... FY2011 ------------------- 37.93% --- 62.07% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
October VB -------------- 124 ---- 18 --- 106 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... October VB --------------- 14.52% --- 85.48% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
November VB ------------- 382 --- 132 --- 245 ----- 3 ----- 2 ............... November VB -------------- 34.55% --- 64.14% ---- 0.79% ---- 0.52%
December VB ------------- 416 --- 170 --- 237 ----- 3 ----- 6 ............... December VB -------------- 40.87% --- 56.97% ---- 0.72% ---- 1.44%
January VB -------------- 430 --- 154 --- 262 ----- 8 ----- 6 ............... January VB --------------- 35.81% --- 60.93% ---- 1.86% ---- 1.40%
February VB ------------- 171 ---- 50 --- 112 ----- 3 ----- 6 ............... February VB -------------- 29.24% --- 65.50% ---- 1.75% ---- 3.51%

Total ----------------- 1,552 --- 535 --- 980 ---- 17 ---- 20 ............... All Apps ----------------- 34.47% --- 63.14% ---- 1.10% ---- 1.29%


Approvals for Applications Submitted Since October 2011 ---------------------------- % Approvals for Applications Submitted Since October 2011

Visa Bulletin --------- Total --- NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC ............... Visa Bulletin -- Total ------ NSC ------ TSC ------ CSC ------ VSC
FY2011 -------------------- 7 ----- 3 ----- 4 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... FY2011 -------- 24.14% --- 27.27% --- 22.22% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
October VB --------------- 52 ---- 10 ---- 42 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... October VB ---- 41.94% --- 55.56% --- 39.62% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
November VB -------------- 87 ---- 42 ---- 44 ----- 1 ----- 0 ............... November VB --- 22.77% --- 31.82% --- 17.96% --- 33.33% ---- 0.00%
December VB -------------- 10 ----- 5 ----- 5 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... December VB ---- 2.40% ---- 2.94% ---- 2.11% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
January VB ---------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... January VB ----- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
February VB --------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... February VB ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%

Total ------------------- 156 ---- 60 ---- 95 ----- 1 ----- 0 ............... All Apps ------ 10.05% --- 11.21% ---- 9.69% ---- 5.88% ---- 0.00%


Approvals by PD Month for FY2012 VB

PD -------------------- Total --- NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC
April 15 2007 - ----------- 6 ----- 0 ----- 6 ----- 0 ----- 0
May 2007 ----------------- 15 ----- 2 ---- 13 ----- 0 ----- 0
June 2007 ---------------- 27 ----- 8 ---- 19 ----- 0 ----- 0
July 2007 ---------------- 19 ----- 2 ---- 17 ----- 0 ----- 0
August 2007 -------------- 21 ---- 11 ---- 10 ----- 0 ----- 0
September 2007 ----------- 20 ---- 12 ----- 8 ----- 0 ----- 0
October 2007 ------------- 31 ---- 17 ---- 13 ----- 1 ----- 0
November 2007 ------------- 1 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0
December 2007 ------------- 3 ----- 3 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
January 2008 -------------- 3 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0
February 2008 ------------- 1 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0
March 2008 ---------------- 2 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 0 ----- 0
April 2008 ---------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
May 2008 ------------------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
June 2008 ----------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0

Post Apr 15 PD Appr. ---- 149 ---- 57 ---- 91 ----- 1 ----- 0
Post July PD Approvals --- 82 ---- 45 ---- 36 ----- 1 ----- 0
All Approvals ----------- 156 ---- 60 ---- 95 ----- 1 ----- 0

[nishant2200]

Wov! Thanks. Very very useful to see trend.

1. TSC seems to be having more apps to process.
2. Both TSC NSC are into the meat of November filers. Feb will be the month of Nov filers, while March will be Dec filers.
- few outliers will/do get lucky

Few my own:
3. And in general, seems to me that EB2ROW, EB1 demand is less than what trackitt might suggest.
4. RFE are being issued a plenty. From case status online analysis, saw cases until mid Nov RD fairly touched as well as almost 40% had RFE.
5. Dec filings very very rare to find approval.

I know some people are interested in the level of new applications, approvals, where those approvals are from and what date the approval PD is.

I am thinking of adding this data to the FACTS & DATA area and keeping it updated, if it is of interest to people.

Here's the data from earlier this evening. Let me know whether you think it is a good idea or not and whether you would look at it.

Applications Since October 2011

Visa Bulletin --------- Total --- NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC
FY2011 ------------------- 28 ---- 10 ---- 18 ----- 0 ----- 0
October VB -------------- 123 ---- 18 --- 105 ----- 0 ----- 0
November VB ------------- 379 --- 132 --- 242 ----- 3 ----- 2
December VB ------------- 414 --- 169 --- 236 ----- 3 ----- 6
January VB -------------- 421 --- 152 --- 255 ----- 8 ----- 6
February VB ------------- 161 ---- 48 --- 104 ----- 3 ----- 6

Total ----------------- 1,526 --- 529 --- 960 ---- 17 ---- 20


Approvals for Applications Submitted Since October 2011 ----------------------------- % Approvals for Applications Submitted Since October 2011

Visa Bulletin --------- Total --- NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC ............... Visa Bulletin -- Total ------ NSC ------ TSC ------ CSC ------ VSC
FY2011 -------------------- 7 ----- 3 ----- 4 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... FY2011 -------- 25.00% --- 30.00% --- 22.22% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
October VB --------------- 48 ---- 10 ---- 38 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... October VB ---- 39.02% --- 55.56% --- 36.19% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
November VB -------------- 84 ---- 40 ---- 43 ----- 1 ----- 0 ............... November VB --- 22.16% --- 30.30% --- 17.77% --- 33.33% ---- 0.00%
December VB -------------- 10 ----- 5 ----- 5 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... December VB ---- 2.42% ---- 2.96% ---- 2.12% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
January VB ---------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... January VB ----- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%
February VB --------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ............... February VB ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00% ---- 0.00%

Total ------------------- 149 ---- 58 ---- 90 ----- 1 ----- 0 ............... Average -------- 9.76% --- 10.96% ---- 9.38% ---- 5.88% ---- 0.00%


Approvals by PD Month for FY2012 VB

PD -------------------- Total --- NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC
April 15 2007 - ----------- 5 ----- 0 ----- 5 ----- 0 ----- 0
May 2007 ----------------- 15 ----- 2 ---- 13 ----- 0 ----- 0
June 2007 ---------------- 25 ----- 8 ---- 17 ----- 0 ----- 0
July 2007 ---------------- 18 ----- 2 ---- 16 ----- 0 ----- 0
August 2007 -------------- 21 ---- 11 ---- 10 ----- 0 ----- 0
September 2007 ----------- 18 ---- 11 ----- 7 ----- 0 ----- 0
October 2007 ------------- 30 ---- 16 ---- 13 ----- 1 ----- 0
November 2007 ------------- 1 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0
December 2007 ------------- 3 ----- 3 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
January 2008 -------------- 3 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0
February 2008 ------------- 1 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0
March 2008 ---------------- 2 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 0 ----- 0
April 2008 ---------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
May 2008 ------------------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
June 2008 ----------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0

Post Apr 15 PD Appr. ---- 142 ---- 55 ---- 86 ----- 1 ----- 0
Post July PD Approvals --- 79 ---- 43 ---- 35 ----- 1 ----- 0
All Approvals ----------- 149 ---- 58 ---- 90 ----- 1 ----- 0

[Momster]

Thanks, imdeng. I looked on the I-683 thread and didn't find a similar discussion. This was discussed on the 485 and CP thread where it basically says that 485 can't be adjudicated without a complete I-683 form. Mine doesn't have signatures since the chest X-ray is pending, so will result in a delay I guess. Oh well..

Pls go through the threads in the Live Discussion section of the forum - the matter has been discussed there. From what I remember, there is a process for pregnant women to continue the application without undue delay - but I don't remember the specifics.

In general, any insufficiency in documentation only delays the 485 approval (through RFE) and not EAD/AP.

[imdeng]

Spec - this is very useful and I would definitely look at it every couple of days. Considering that we don't have reliable Demand Date and 485 Inventory these days, the progress being made, as seen through trackitt, it very useful to get a sense of where we are at the moment. I support keeping it as a feature in Facts and Data section.

I know some people are interested in the level of new applications, approvals, where those approvals are from and what date the approval PD is.

I am thinking of adding this data to the FACTS & DATA area and keeping it updated, if it is of interest to people.

Here's the data from earlier this evening. Let me know whether you think it is a good idea or not and whether you would look at it.

[Soleil]

Hi.. I have been a silent follower of this blog for a few months now.Kudos to all you folks out there to make so informative..!!

I have a quick question : Our Notice date is January 24 and we are unable to check our case status online.It says case status not found.What do we do ? Is this common ?

[ontheedge]

Hi.. I have been a silent follower of this blog for a few months now.Kudos to all you folks out there to make so informative..!!

I have a quick question : Our Notice date is January 24 and we are unable to check our case status online.It says case status not found.What do we do ? Is this common ?

Yes, it usually takes a couple days to show up online. Its pretty normal.

[leo4ever]

Momster,

We were in the same situation (jan filer). Civil surgeon will fill the form and mark the TB test thing as contra-indicated. We did not even take live vaccinations (like MMR) as they should not be administered.

Civil sugeon asked us to get a letter from Gyn stating my wife is pregnant and she cannot be administered with live vaccination. Civil Surgeon will mark those tests as contra-indicated and signed based on those forms from Gyn.

Thanks, imdeng. I looked on the I-683 thread and didn't find a similar discussion. This was discussed on the 485 and CP thread where it basically says that 485 can't be adjudicated without a complete I-683 form. Mine doesn't have signatures since the chest X-ray is pending, so will result in a delay I guess. Oh well..

[Soleil]

Yes, it usually takes a couple days to show up online. Its pretty normal.

Thanks ontheedge , but it's more than 2 weeks after I received the receipt mail from USCIS.
How long does it normally take to track status online? Do I need to call USCIS?

[essenel]

I know some people are interested in the level of new applications, approvals, where those approvals are from and what date the approval PD is.

I am thinking of adding this data to the FACTS & DATA area and keeping it updated, if it is of interest to people.

Here's the data from earlier this evening. Let me know whether you think it is a good idea or not and whether you would look at it.

Spec, wow, thanks a lot. Just a quick question on the last 3 lines. Does post Apr 15 approvals mean Apr to July approvals or all post Apr 15 approvals? (seems like the latter).

[Spectator]

Spec, wow, thanks a lot. Just a quick question on the last 3 lines. Does post Apr 15 approvals mean Apr to July approvals or all post Apr 15 approvals? (seems like the latter).

essenel,

I couldn't find a good short description unfortunately.

Yes, it is all approvals with PD April 15, 2007 onwards (for application received by USCIS from October 1, 2011 onwards).

Thanks for the feedback.

[sandeep11]

Nishant,

In the last AILA meeting Mr. CO mentioned that they are supposed to use 45% by end of Feb and they have used only 34% (by Jan 12th) and they are looking at 11% usage for the rest of Feb. I am thinking that NSC was more efficient in using the numbers and TSC was lacking behind. They might have got a shot in the back most recently and they have tried to catch up with NSC in using the numbers.

I am hoping that 11% falls into Dec filers too. But with the trend of recent approvals I guess it is a little tough. There could be few lucky ones though.

Wov! Thanks. Very very useful to see trend.

1. TSC seems to be having more apps to process.
2. Both TSC NSC are into the meat of November filers. Feb will be the month of Nov filers, while March will be Dec filers.
- few outliers will/do get lucky

Few my own:
3. And in general, seems to me that EB2ROW, EB1 demand is less than what trackitt might suggest.
4. RFE are being issued a plenty. From case status online analysis, saw cases until mid Nov RD fairly touched as well as almost 40% had RFE.
5. Dec filings very very rare to find approval.

[ontheedge]

Thanks ontheedge , but it's more than 2 weeks after I received the receipt mail from USCIS.
How long does it normally take to track status online? Do I need to call USCIS?

I had read somewhere that there was a batch of people who filed in a given period and were having trouble with online tracking. I dont know if that issue was resolved. But calling USCIS should be no harm.

[Reader]

I had read somewhere that there was a batch of people who filed in a given period and were having trouble with online tracking. I dont know if that issue was resolved. But calling USCIS should be no harm.

My RD is 6th Dec and my case status still does not show up. My EAD and AP receipt numbers started showing up after they were approved, but 485 receipt numbers are still not showing up.

[gc_usa]

I had read somewhere that there was a batch of people who filed in a given period and were having trouble with online tracking. I dont know if that issue was resolved. But calling USCIS should be no harm.

Soleil

I think you are in same boat as me and others. Don't worry actually it is helping to get to level 2 officer all the time straight. Since level 1 can't track case they forward to Level 2. Also once you get approved you will see online case being updated.

When you talk to level 2 you can ask little more than what you can see on site. Like you can ask if Background check is done or not. Or they can give you tracking no once your EAD /AP /GC card mailed out.

Be patient and enjoy gc ride !!!

[imdeng]

Spec - just thinking aloud - I have the following suggestion: the second table seems redundant - that can be taken out. The first and the third table can be combined together to give a complete picture. The last table (PD Month) is fine as it is. Thanks again for the awesome work.

Spec
This is a very good compilation showing the current trend. Thank you.
My opinion is you may shorten this data into a single table while adding to the FACTS & DATA .
Lets see what the majority feels.

[Reader]

Reader,

You can READ the full article here http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html VOL. XVIII, no. 06; Feb 2012, week 2)

Some more information here ....http://www.murthy.com/news/n_revamh.html[/COLOR]

Kanmani, Thanks for the links. It was very useful, especially the h1 amendment part.

Friends, please help me with this scenario if it plays out... For the year 2008, my wife has the W2, but we did not save the corresponding pay stubs. The w2 salary is less than the LCA prevailing wage by 2 months worth of salary. Now my question is,

1. will USCIS accept w2 or is there a possibility of requesting pay stubs specifically.

2. For the purpose of proving that the out of status is less than 180 days for using 245K, will the w2 be sufficient to prove that she was not paid for 2 months or could it be interpreted that the company paid less than prevailing wage for the entire year and thus making it a violation of status for the entire year (>180 days)

I am just trying to have peace of mind till the 485 decision comes out, but it is proving to be difficult due to this issue. Please help with your suggestions.

[aguy007]

slightly OT, but recently read this article

New Research Finds Soaring Denial Rates for High Skill Professionals

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartan...professionals/

[Kanmani]

Kanmani, Thanks for the links. It was very useful, especially the h1 amendment part.

Friends, please help me with this scenario if it plays out... For the year 2008, my wife has the W2, but we did not save the corresponding pay stubs. The w2 salary is less than the LCA prevailing wage by 2 months worth of salary. Now my question is,

1. will USCIS accept w2 or is there a possibility of requesting pay stubs specifically.

2. For the purpose of proving that the out of status is less than 180 days for using 245K, will the w2 be sufficient to prove that she was not paid for 2 months or could it be interpreted that the company paid less than prevailing wage for the entire year and thus making it a violation of status for the entire year (>180 days)

I am just trying to have peace of mind till the 485 decision comes out, but it is proving to be difficult due to this issue. Please help with your suggestions.

Reader, Don't worry everything will go good . Only very few people have a cake walk in their GC process, rest of us might go through few sleepless nights at some point of time in our journey. Believe in God.

Could you please pour more information on how you wife has gone out of status for 3 months? More case specific information like
H1b revoked/ bench pay/ worked with no pay etc.....

[Reader]

Could you please pour more information on how you wife has gone out of status for 3 months? More case specific information like
H1b revoked/ bench pay/ worked with no pay etc.....

It is due to the bench pay. Therefore, the w2 is off by 2 months worth of salary compared to the LCA prevailing wage. Now, my main question is how will USCIS treat the difference i.e. that it was 2 months with out pay (60 day violation) or underpaid for the entire year (360 day violation).

[Kanmani]

So there is 60 days inbetween the date of last paystub and the date of COS application received by USCIS right ?

If so, only 60 days period is counted against status violation .

[nishant2200]

sandeep, 45% by end of february means 9% each month they are following, and they are fine with visas running out anytime in the last month of FY (September), but they don't want situation wherein there are visas wasted.

So even if they meet the 11% goal in February itself, which is 2% more than targeted per month, so that they catch up to 9% for the five months each month gone by so far, we still have 9% for March, and so on each month. As long as EB2ROW and EB1 visa demand remains low, which it looks like it is, and also whenever hopefully we get a morphine shot from the EB5 bonus, December filers should fare fine.

In fact, starting next month, I won't be surprised if even a few lucky handful of January filers get into the extremely lucky 2 month approval case, as long as they don't get RFE and have had an early 1 month FP.

Nishant,

In the last AILA meeting Mr. CO mentioned that they are supposed to use 45% by end of Feb and they have used only 34% (by Jan 12th) and they are looking at 11% usage for the rest of Feb. I am thinking that NSC was more efficient in using the numbers and TSC was lacking behind. They might have got a shot in the back most recently and they have tried to catch up with NSC in using the numbers.

I am hoping that 11% falls into Dec filers too. But with the trend of recent approvals I guess it is a little tough. There could be few lucky ones though.