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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #4676
    Even if you miss it this FY, you will get it in Q1FY13 with QSP since you are right on the border - retrogression will not make more than a few months difference to you.
    Quote Originally Posted by fedupwithgc View Post
    My PD is Jul 2008 and I hope to get my GC this FY and retrogression doesnt happen beyond that...I have been waiting for 10 years and this year will be an interesting one...
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  2. #4677
    Yoda
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    Awesome explanation as usual
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Teddy,

    As I have tried to point out before, the Demand Data won't tell us anything until the dates retrogress, since no adjudications will appear in it until then.

    There could be 10,000 approvals and it wouldn't appear in the DD while the dates are current.

  3. #4678
    Yup - this the problem with the high level of inventory building in this batch - once we retrogress, we will not touch these PDs until the inventory depletes significantly - and that may take a couple years unless HR3012 comes into play. 2010 happens to be significantly more dense and an improving economy might hit spillovers too - further increasing the delay.
    Quote Originally Posted by delguy View Post
    I dont think there will be any movement now for next 2 years. The pipeline is now full for next 2 years and the new one will be built once this one empties out.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  4. #4679
    Yoda
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    Me too from Sep, and was expecting to file for EAD that would be helpful for spouse. I guess we have to wait for a year to more now.
    Quote Originally Posted by vishnu View Post
    I am inclined to agree - particularly on the stalling part. Bummer! I am Sep 2010

  5. #4680
    Just to emphasize the point - when we started the spillover season about 10 months back, the EB2I PD was 06-May-2006 - and today, 10 months later, it is 01-May-2010. A 4 year movement in 10 months (and we still may have more)!!

    I am sure none of us, in our wildest dreams, imagined this!
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  6. #4681
    But one good note...as it didnt move for one year...the retrogress will not be very bad....as both 2008 and 2009 have less counts...and we also know huge data is there in later part of 2010 than in early part...so next time the dates move we all can apply...i hope they will start moving again in 1 or 1 1/2 year.....i know its is wait.....but guys think in a positive note( we are not waiting for 4 years like 2007 folks(sep 2007 to dec 2007). ).....

    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Yup - this the problem with the high level of inventory building in this batch - once we retrogress, we will not touch these PDs until the inventory depletes significantly - and that may take a couple years unless HR3012 comes into play. 2010 happens to be significantly more dense and an improving economy might hit spillovers too - further increasing the delay.

  7. #4682

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    ...we will not touch these PDs until the inventory depletes significantly - and that may take a couple years unless HR3012 comes into play. ....
    That's a great point. That is the reason it's critical that people who are current file 485 since more than likely they are not going to be current for next 2-3 years unless their PD is in 2008 or HR 3012 becomes law.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 02-08-2012 at 06:01 PM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  8. #4683
    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    But one good note...as it didnt move for one year...the retrogress will not be very bad....as both 2008 and 2009 have less counts...and we also know huge data is there in later part of 2010 than in early part...so next time the dates move we all can apply...i hope they will start moving again in 1 or 1 1/2 year.....i know its is wait.....but guys think in a positive note( we are not waiting for 4 years like 2007 folks(sep 2007 to dec 2007). ).....
    Mesan,
    Loved your optimism as well as balanced and logical approach.
    I know many people who get frustrated and blame it on everything even though they filed as late as Dec 10 or 11.
    Let wisdom prevail..

  9. #4684
    looks movement slowed. Not stalled.
    No comments in the bulletin so guessing game continues to next month.

    Jan 12 Inventory was 30K for EB2 (ROW-12K, China-3.5K India-13K, Phillppines-1K Mexico-0.5k).

    Most likely cases with PD After 2008 March 15th Data not captured into this report.

    so Most likely March'2008 to April'2010 we expect another 20K minimum.

    Points to Note for Analysis:
    1> Due to increased PERM audits we see weakening ROW demand. This may be temporarily, Once A Person decided to go for GC he will find a way, bottlenecks may delay a bit, how ever this may be good for EB2 I&C with Approved PERM's
    2>As per CO discussion with AILA by this time 40% of this year Quota is already consumed. so accordingly part of this year spillover is already consumed. with 50K EB2 inventory(includes 20K from March'2008 to April 2010). further movement may be difficult. Only reason they can move is to make immigrant community groups happy before election.
    3> we may see EB3 to EB2 porting cases surge again with EB3 PD late 2006 to 2007, people get motivated to port once their counterpart EB2 becomes current. before that it is difficult to talk to HR about porting as they already has EAD.
    4> Low filling/Demand/Inventory may be artificial due to various reasons like below
    people filing slowly knowing their date is current next month also,
    Inventory report account for the cases in process. after sending Receipt Notices may be some more pre stepts needed???? this is speculation what ever we have 2009 cases in the report
    Dependent cases may be missing as pointed by other due to incorrect priority date
    Last edited by srividya; 02-08-2012 at 05:51 PM.

  10. #4685
    Thank you codesmith.....just wanted to be realestic ....

    Quote Originally Posted by codesmith View Post
    Mesan,
    Loved your optimism as well as balanced and logical approach.
    I know many people who get frustrated and blame it on everything even though they filed as late as Dec 10 or 11.
    Let wisdom prevail..

  11. #4686

    Lightbulb

    nice link...moderators can remove this ...just thought of sharing...not related to EB2 calculations...(found this in track it)

    http://reason.com/assets/db/07cf533d...b5942ef5ad.jpg

    Edited By Q - with apologies to Mesan. This is a great image to educate people who rail on immigrants. Showing it inline here from the same site mentioned above.
    07cf533ddb1d06350cf1ddb5942ef5ad.jpg
    Last edited by qesehmk; 02-08-2012 at 06:10 PM.

  12. #4687
    beautiful. story of my life and many others like me!

    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    nice link...moderators can remove this ...just thought of sharing...not related to EB2 calculations...(found this in track it)

    http://reason.com/assets/db/07cf533d...b5942ef5ad.jpg

    Edited By Q - with apologies to Mesan. This is a great image to educate people who rail on immigrants. Showing it inline here from the same site mentioned above.
    07cf533ddb1d06350cf1ddb5942ef5ad.jpg
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  13. #4688
    No apologies Q...you made it better....i didnt know how to paste....so shared the link...it looked like most of our lives ( like nishanth mentions... ghar ghar ki kahani )

    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    nice link...moderators can remove this ...just thought of sharing...not related to EB2 calculations...(found this in track it)

    http://reason.com/assets/db/07cf533d...b5942ef5ad.jpg

    Edited By Q - with apologies to Mesan. This is a great image to educate people who rail on immigrants. Showing it inline here from the same site mentioned above.
    07cf533ddb1d06350cf1ddb5942ef5ad.jpg

  14. #4689
    Sophomore
    Join Date
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    Location
    Texas
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    Quote Originally Posted by URL
    http://reason.com/assets/db/07cf533ddb1d06350cf1ddb5942ef5ad.jpg[/URL]

    Edited By Q - with apologies to Mesan. This is a great image to educate people who rail on immigrants. Showing it inline here from the same site mentioned above.
    07cf533ddb1d06350cf1ddb5942ef5ad.jpg
    Fantastic. You guys rock..

  15. #4690

    Wink "I like the beard part : growing relatively based on the wait time" - Nice work.

    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    nice link...moderators can remove this ...just thought of sharing...not related to EB2 calculations...(found this in track it)

    http://reason.com/assets/db/07cf533d...b5942ef5ad.jpg

    Edited By Q - with apologies to Mesan. This is a great image to educate people who rail on immigrants. Showing it inline here from the same site mentioned above.
    07cf533ddb1d06350cf1ddb5942ef5ad.jpg

    Too good, but true.
    On a serious note : did any one try to apply I-824 and convert to CP?

  16. #4691
    Thanks to everyone for your kind wishes and all the very best to all of you. Never thought that I will be current in 2012. This is a great forum and brought sanity to my daily life. Special thanks to guru for you calculations and time.

  17. #4692
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    CONGRATULATIONS !!!!!

    03/04/10 - sudkal33
    03/11/10 - cricfan
    03/18/10 - asankaran
    03/19/10 - The Legend
    03/31/10 - smuggymba
    04/01/10 - immiindia
    04/19/10 - Harapatta
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Adding - gkjppp
    Congratulations to every one who will be current in March 2012. Get the documents ready and file as early as possible.

    We should know by second week in March if EB2IC dates are going to hold to March cut-off date or retro.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  18. #4693
    Friends, please help me with this question.

    I have already filed 485 for my wife who is the derivative on my application. Even though her LCA was amended, the H1 petition was not amended and she worked for 1.5 years back in 2008. I am not sure whether missing the H1 amendment may be considered as technical violation and does not hold against the employee. Just to avoid all the issues, can she travel to her home country and come back in H4 now.

    Does it really help even if the last lawful admission is after the 485 filing or it should have been done before filing?

  19. #4694
    We are caught in a very unfortunate situation. if someone can help/guide us , we will be very grateful

    my husband has a approved I-140 on EB2 with PD 01/07/2010. While we were joyously waiting to be current in the march bulletin, his dad passed away and he had
    to leave for india to perform the last rites. because of this travel, he had to go for h1-b stamping and he was given a 221g pink form, no documents asked at the chennai
    consulate last week (visa approved pending admin processing)

    now he is stuck in india and our only hope is that his clearance will come before march 15th atleast so that we can try and file. are there any other options for us?

    I have a valid h1-b, can my husband come back to the US on H4 and still file for AOS?
    Also, if the clearance does not come by this month end, should we look into consular processing?

    does anyone have ideas on current processing time for administrative processing at chennai,india. he has a non-muslim name and does not work in the TAL area, if any
    of this matters. he is a regular IT guy working for a non-consulting company.

    Any help is appreciated.

    Thanks
    Shaisri
    Last edited by shaisri; 02-09-2012 at 12:05 AM.

  20. #4695
    Shaisri, so sorry to hear the bad phase you guys are going through. March bulletin is the beginning of good news for you guys. Your husband will receive his passport most likely in two weeks (saw several such cases on trackitt). IMO the dates will stay put even in April bulletin and I personally do not recommend changing to H4 and moving to consular processing will take at least 6 months . Please take your attorney's advice.

    Quote Originally Posted by shaisri View Post
    We are caught in a very unfortunate situation. if someone can help/guide us , we will be very grateful

    my husband has a approved I-140 on EB2 with PD 01/07/2010. While we were joyously waiting to be current in the march bulletin, his dad passed away and he had
    to leave for india to perform the last rites. because of this travel, he had to go for h1-b stamping and he was given a 221g pink form, no documents asked at the chennai
    consulate last week (visa approved pending admin processing)

    now he is stuck in india and our only hope is that his clearance will come before march 15th atleast so that we can try and file. are there any other options for us?

    I have a valid h1-b, can my husband come back to the US on H4 and still file for AOS?
    Also, if the clearance does not come by this month end, should we look into consular processing?

    does anyone have ideas on current processing time for administrative processing at chennai,india. he has a non-muslim name and does not work in the TAL area, if any
    of this matters. he is a regular IT guy working for a non-consulting company.

    Any help is appreciated.

    Thanks
    Shaisri
    Last edited by gcoracle; 02-09-2012 at 01:09 AM.
    TSC||PD:12/19/2007||RD:12/02/2011||ND:12/06/2011||FP: 01/12/2012||EAD/AP: 02/06/2012||I485:02/18/2012

  21. #4696
    IMhO it should reflect poorly on employer rather than employee who is the beneficiary. More than likely this shouldn't affect negatively.
    Quote Originally Posted by Reader View Post
    Friends, please help me with this question.
    I have already filed 485 for my wife who is the derivative on my application. Even though her LCA was amended, the H1 petition was not amended and she worked for 1.5 years back in 2008. I am not sure whether missing the H1 amendment may be considered as technical violation and does not hold against the employee. Just to avoid all the issues, can she travel to her home country and come back in H4 now.

    Does it really help even if the last lawful admission is after the 485 filing or it should have been done before filing?
    Quote Originally Posted by shaisri View Post
    We are caught in a very unfortunate situation. if someone can help/guide us , we will be very grateful

    my husband has a approved I-140 on EB2 with PD 01/07/2010. While we were joyously waiting to be current in the march bulletin, his dad passed away and he had
    to leave for india to perform the last rites. because of this travel, he had to go for h1-b stamping and he was given a 221g pink form, no documents asked at the chennai
    consulate last week (visa approved pending admin processing)

    now he is stuck in india and our only hope is that his clearance will come before march 15th atleast so that we can try and file. are there any other options for us?

    I have a valid h1-b, can my husband come back to the US on H4 and still file for AOS?
    Also, if the clearance does not come by this month end, should we look into consular processing?

    does anyone have ideas on current processing time for administrative processing at chennai,india. he has a non-muslim name and does not work in the TAL area, if any
    of this matters. he is a regular IT guy working for a non-consulting company.

    Any help is appreciated.

    Thanks
    Shaisri
    Shaisri, very sorry for your loss. Your husband can file CP and you can file 485. However that is not the long term solution since he has a job to do. Generally this situation should resolve in 2 weeks. But if it doesn't then unfortunately H4 also will run into the same problem since technically he can enter on H4 and then adjust status to H1 here in US based on 797. So usually the consulates would not approve his H4 as well. Don/'t mean to scare you ... morethan likely you guys will be ok in 2-3 weeks and he can come back. Meanwhile get your medicals donea and keep the package ready. All the best!
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  22. #4697
    Hi Gurus, my PD is Apr 2010 and getting ready with documents, don't have BC but got affidavits from both parents. Do I need to have non-availability from govt agency ? Is that mandatory ? If so from whom plz ?
    I born in a small village and my parents moved from there. My parents r here in USA for visiting ?

    Please advise what should I do get that non availability if required plz ?

  23. #4698
    You do need either a BC or a NABC. There are lots of details on what to do and how to do that in the Birth Certificate thread on this forum. Specifically, there are several sites that will get a BC/NABC for you from India for a fee.
    Quote Originally Posted by bee369 View Post
    Hi Gurus, my PD is Apr 2010 and getting ready with documents, don't have BC but got affidavits from both parents. Do I need to have non-availability from govt agency ? Is that mandatory ? If so from whom plz ?
    I born in a small village and my parents moved from there. My parents r here in USA for visiting ?

    Please advise what should I do get that non availability if required plz ?
    Last edited by imdeng; 02-09-2012 at 08:41 AM.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  24. #4699
    Quote Originally Posted by bee369 View Post
    Hi Gurus, my PD is Apr 2010 and getting ready with documents, don't have BC but got affidavits from both parents. Do I need to have non-availability from govt agency ? Is that mandatory ? If so from whom plz ?
    I born in a small village and my parents moved from there. My parents r here in USA for visiting ?

    Please advise what should I do get that non availability if required plz ?
    Can you point me some posts plz ?

  25. #4700
    Hi Shaisri,

    Very sorry to hear your situation.

    Me and my wife visited India last Feb. My H1b was approved while she got a 221G. Both of us work for a U.S company(different though). Based on my experience and the experience of other friends, 221G should NOT take more than 2-3 weeks. I know it is frustrating but keep your hopes alive.

    Mean while ask you husband's attorney to reach out to USCIS. My wife did this and we got a response with in 4 days. I am not sure it helped but atleast it is worth a try.

    Regards,
    Umesh

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