EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[eb2visa]

I think the total demand for all EB categories for 2008 is around 17000 and 2009 is 13000

[qesehmk]

Oh yes. I missed it. Then look at the 2007 Oct and then Nov number. There is absolutely no reason why there should be that much drop between two consecutive months - other than some error or some sort of processing discrepancy.

The inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012, Q. It has data till March 15, 2008 PDs (Dec bulletin)+ some beyond that (1 week or so of Jan bulletin). So EB2IC 2008 demand is not completely reflected in the inventory.

[kd2008]

Oh yes. I missed it. Then look at the 2007 Oct and then Nov number. There is absolutely no reason why there should be that much drop between two consecutive months - other than some error or some sort of processing discrepancy.

Yes, the change is dramatic and unexplained. But it is the best we have available to make our guesses with. I hope USCIS is not wrong here. It seems they have been deliberate in publishing the data - waiting almost 3 weeks to publish after the capture of snapshot. So I hope they have double checked things. It would be a bummer, if they have made a mistake.

In the Jan 19 meeting Mr. CO, did say that USCIS had reported shockingly low numbers and half of what they expected. So in some ways, this report corroborates it.

[mrdeeds]

Oh yes. I missed it. Then look at the 2007 Oct and then Nov number. There is absolutely no reason why there should be that much drop between two consecutive months - other than some error or some sort of processing discrepancy.

Q, you forget the impact of massive audits that were started in late Oct 2007 going for a few months. Being an Oct 07 filer whose perm was audited and later denied in 09, I have met and spoken to a lot of people who faced those audits. I think it was like 40% of the PERMs filed then were audited. While I don't get much of everything else discussed here by you and other gurus alike, I can stick my neck out and say that this is not a discrepancy. There is a perfectly valid explanation for the drop in those months and that would be the audits.

[usernameisnotvalid]

I remember there was some trouble with PERM filings by Microsoft and they had to withdraw (or cancel) all of them.

[operas]

Q, you forget the impact of massive audits that were started in late Oct 2007 going for a few months. Being an Oct 07 filer whose perm was audited and later denied in 09, I have met and spoken to a lot of people who faced those audits. I think it was like 40% of the PERMs filed then were audited. While I don't get much of everything else discussed here by you and other gurus alike, I can stick my neck out and say that this is not a discrepancy. There is a perfectly valid explanation for the drop in those months and that would be the audits.

I second that.. My PERM processing was put on hold in a fortune 100 company for the same reason. Everybody who had applied for PERM towards end of 07 were audited big time. All GC processing was shut for the next two years.. Yup.. Im stuck at Feb 2010 PD, glad they did apply as my 6 year term was coming to an end.

[qesehmk]

Agree that it corroborates CO's earlier statements very well.

In the Jan 19 meeting Mr. CO, did say that USCIS had reported shockingly low numbers and half of what they expected. So in some ways, this report corroborates it.

Q, you forget the impact of massive audits that were started in late Oct 2007 going for a few months. Being an Oct 07 filer whose perm was audited and later denied in 09, I have met and spoken to a lot of people who faced those audits. I think it was like 40% of the PERMs filed then were audited. While I don't get much of everything else discussed here by you and other gurus alike, I can stick my neck out and say that this is not a discrepancy. There is a perfectly valid explanation for the drop in those months and that would be the audits.

Thanks. This makes sense. Could be true.

[pdfeb09]

The inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012, Q. It has data till March 15, 2008 PDs (Dec bulletin)+ some beyond that (1 week or so of Jan bulletin). So EB2IC 2008 demand is not completely reflected in the inventory.

Absolutely.. we haven't seen the bulk of 2008 and none of 2009 yet .. it is,however, great for March bulletin, unless CO has access to a more current Inventory data .. which reflects the Jan filers numbers ..

[piratla]

I remember there was some trouble with PERM filings by Microsoft and they had to withdraw (or cancel) all of them.

That was the case only for PERMS starting Apr~May 2008. Since MSFT laid off employees in Jan 2009, pretty much 'all' of those PERMS were audited. Infact after the lay offs, MSFT didn't file PERMS(very few exceptions) for all of 2009 and up until mid 2010.

[mrdeeds]

Since MSFT laid off employees in Jan 2009, pretty much 'all' of those PERMS were audited.

You mean Jan 2008, right?

[piratla]

Nope. Jan 2009. ~5000 employees were let go.

Here is a link
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/2009/01...-now-what.html

[harapatta]

All the Very Best to ALL who are eagerly waiting for March VB...

[natvyas]

Not just employers even law firm had run into an issue with USCIS. Fragomen was all over the internet because of what they were suggesting to their clients. Hence USCIS had decided to audit all perms submitted by Fragomen.

Even my case with PD Mar 08 was audited by got approved.

[kd2008]

suninphx,

Here are mine:

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 --- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 (+6 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 --- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 (+53 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 --- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 (+50 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ---- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 (+134 cases)

Based on the Jan 2012 inventory, new demand till Dec VB is ~8.4K. This gives a very early trackitt ratio of 9.3%

[srividya]

EB3 ROW Inventory
As of Oct'2010 --> 32,365
As of Jan 12' 2012 --> 29,388

only 3000 Reduction at USCIS & Field offices per one Quarter

[suninphx]

The inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012, Q. It has data till March 15, 2008 PDs (Dec bulletin)+ some beyond that (1 week or so of Jan bulletin). So EB2IC 2008 demand is not completely reflected in the inventory.

For argument sake if we assume that only 30% people filed in first week of Jan , even then full number wont cross 1000?

And if we still want to be conservative and stick to 2200/month of original estimate then looks like in first week only 12-15% people filed. (which I certanily disagree with )

[Pdmar08]

For argument sake if we assume that only 30% people filed in first week of Jan , even then full number wont cross 1000?

And if we still want to be conservative and stick to 2200/month of original estimate then looks like in first week only 12-15% people filed. (which I certanily disagree with )

I still dont get it. I am one of those march 08 filers who filed in Dec 2011.
I am yet to get FP done, am i one of the counts on the report or not?
I havent even got EAD but i dont think that matters.

[kd2008]

For argument sake if we assume that only 30% people filed in first week of Jan , even then full number wont cross 1000?

And if we still want to be conservative and stick to 2200/month of original estimate then looks like in first week only 12-15% people filed. (which I certanily disagree with )

Suninphx,

I think USCIS waited till Jan 12, because it thought that for all the cases till Dec 31 to show up in the inventory it takes 7-8 working business days, but of course some cases in the first day or two of Jan were also showing up in the inventory. There is not much to make of it. Don't try to estimate Jan VB demand by using the data from this inventory.

[Pdmar08]

Nope. Jan 2009. ~5000 employees were let go.

Here is a link
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/2009/01...-now-what.html

Many if not most of them withdrew after denial in audit and applied fresh in 2011.

[tnayar78]

Can some one explain if inventory data is till January 12 2012 then how come 2009 January PD is showing "34", 2009JanPD should be filing from February, were these applications incorrectly filed in January instead of Feb.

[srividya]

EB2 ROW used to consume 35K per year in 2008/2009 ( EB2I&C got 10-14K with 6K reqular Quota & 8K spillover from EB1) was down to < 20K now so demand destruction is close to 50%.

Suninphx,

I think USCIS waited till Jan 12, because it thought that for all the cases till Dec 31 to show up in the inventory it takes 7-8 working business days, but of course some cases in the first day or two of Jan were also showing up in the inventory. There is not much to make of it. Don't try to estimate Jan VB demand by using the data from this inventory.

[Gclongwait]

I still dont get it. I am one of those march 08 filers who filed in Dec 2011.
I am yet to get FP done, am i one of the counts on the report or not?
I havent even got EAD but i dont think that matters.

I am guessing. I am in the same boat but if they are counting people who filed in first week of Jan the FP shouldnt matter to the counting.

[codesmith]

EB2 ROW used to consume 35K per year in 2008/2009 ( EB2I&C got 10-14K with 6K reqular Quota & 8K spillover from EB1) was down to < 20K now so demand destruction is close to 50%.

Taking a look at the Jan and FEb 2008 figures and the timing of the last update date of the inventory report , I'd guess 700 per month for whole 2008 ie 700 * 12 = 8400
What do you think Sun/Kd ?

[suninphx]

Taking a look at the Jan and FEb 2008 figures and the timing of the last update date of the inventory report , I'd guess 700 per month for whole 2008 ie 700 * 12 = 8400
What do you think Sun/Kd ?

If total 2008 filings are indeed less than 10000 then that would be good news for every one.

Personally I am not very comfortable with such low demand numbers. Gives me feeling that some thing has not still been accounted for. May be next inventory gives better picture.
Lets wait to hear from experts.

[kumar78]

My 2 cents...Looking at the January Filing Trackers on Trackitt, ~75% of them have a RD before Jan 11th. Though this is not a strong indicator to say that inventory report captured 75% of demand for 2008, but its a strong indicator that more people try to send their documents as soon as they are current.

Kumar