Sometimes it gets released on the same day (max a day or two later). Maybe the VB will be released this afternoon.Originally Posted by rasknorr
Sometimes it gets released on the same day (max a day or two later). Maybe the VB will be released this afternoon.
Thanks mysati
Another theory - With dates being current in 2007, a lot of people raised hell to have their apps started in 2007 (including me). With the dates retrogressing in July 07, these applications that were started would still be reflecting in higher demand going into late 2007 early 2008 and that is what we are seeing. More or less all PWMBs.
This data does not make any sense. Why would sep07 and oct07 have more filings than nov07 and dec07. I think the December filers have not been counted fully. I would go with 1300 to 1500 per month at least till march 2008. Anything less than that doesn't seem right.
Before July 2007
No.of EB2 I-485 filings equal to number of perms.
Definetly based on Teddy calculation this holds good till Nov'2007
at it was down .7 This reason is simple many people with I-140 approved who changed jobs post july 2007 rushed to start their GC process again this caused demand reduction of 25% to 30% this is not big number.
post Nov'2007 is interesting from this period no.of cases may average ~700 per month till Mid 2008 . from mid 2008 to late 2009 the number of filing may average ~500 month.
This is the period demand destruction goes to .5 with Eb3 to EB2 upgrades. Most of these upgrades are in 2008 & 2009. Eb3 people whose date is current taken up to their case to port to EB2 so they get green card ASAP.
How ever we gusestimate EB2 data as below
2007 - 7605
2008 - 84000 (12*700)
2009 - 7500 (12*500) with increase numbers in last Quarter of 2009
so we may still have 25K cases before Jan 1st 2010.
EB1 - 15,600
EB2 ROW - 12,000
EB2 Mexico, Phil, china - 8,000 ( china excluded in above calculation)
so we have 35, 600 ==> non EB2 India & EB1
we have 86K ( EB1 & EB2 quota for FY 2012 with spill over from EB5)
as of Jan 19th with VO numbers 36% already used so 86 - 31 = 55K available quota.
assuming all 35, 600 are approved still we have 20K spillover. ( cases filed in EB1 & EB2 ROW from now will stay in pipeline few may get approved but at the same time more that from 35,600 will stary in pipeline).
we apply 20 K spillover for 25K demand till Dec'2009 , Most of the cases will be cleared.
By above analysis we can conclude USCIS pieline post sept'2012 will be ( EB1 & EB2 ROW from Feb'2012 & 5k from EB2 India), this pipeline is not good enough for post sept'2012 so more cases need in the system before that. always we have 25K inventory for EB1 & EB2 ROW in past reports now with India & china included don't cross this number. so VO is moving dates on numbers & on the system how it works.
Even based on PERM estimates we have 50K Perm's between July 2007 to Dec 2009. demand destruction is 50% this is what VO mentioned. It is reasonable.
before 2007 we don't have issues like porting & re-starting GC process gain. Earlier Once applied people used to wait for GC with their company. now due to 4-5 years delay people changed jobs after I-140. Most cases spouse also started GC process to renew H1 after 6 years.
5% filling I-485 late
20% EB3 to E2 porting last 3-4 years together 12K cases ported.
20% restarting GC after changing job with I-140
5% additional denails in I-140 stage, loosing job, leaving country.
Last edited by srividya; 02-03-2012 at 11:57 AM.
As Far As I understand.. these number are NOT NECESSARILY "Documentarily Qualified" .. these numbers are I 485 applications received by USCIS, and have not been allocated a GC yet for various reasons (RFEs, have not yet processed completely, etc.), arranged by Priority Dates.
Some, Very few, of all these applications would be documentarily qualified if any at all. At least not at the time the snapshot was taken.
Gurus can correct me if I am wrong.
Last edited by pdfeb09; 02-03-2012 at 11:54 AM.
[QUOTE=srividya;20424]Before July 2007
No.of EB2 I-485 filings equal to number of perms.
Have you accounted for cases approved quickly which never show up in Inventory?
My personal opinion: If CO moves PD in March 2012 based on the inventory, he should move it by 1 year atleast.
Reason:
a. EB2 as a whole has 30.5K applications.
b. The year 2008 from EB2IC added only 5K applications.
c. Granted that Inventory does not have 2009 data.
d. But looking at 2008 if we assume 2009 will also add 5K applications.
e. Total EB2 will be little less than 36K.
f. Total EB2 that will be documentarily qualified will be 31K (little less than 15% I485 rejection rate). So total EB2 Demand as of Feb 2012 VB 32K.
g. EB2 as whole usually gets 40K quota + 10K from EB1+EB5+EB4. Even if we assume 5K from EB1+EB5+EB5. Number of applications needed for FY 2012 for EB2 is 45K.
h. So USCIS still needs 14K documentarily qualified applications for FY2012 for EB2 as a whole. That turns out to be about 16.5K I485s.
i. Therefore to get 16.5K I485 applications, CO has to move the dates by atleast 1 year (infact they have to make it current if we go by the 2008 I485 count of 5K)
NOTE: I know that there are many people with PD in 2008 that have not applied and hence we see low numbers but Mr. CO does not have a way to see that.
Feel free to tear my logic apart.
You need to take into account
1. AOS Cases that does show up any time in inventory and consume VISA
2. CP cases
As it is already 4th month in FY, a good percentage of Spillover ( QSP) already consumed.
Please see my point in blue. It is expected that another ~25K applications will be added between Jan 12 and Feb 29 2012 for EB2IC with PDs between 15 March 2008 and 1 Jan 2010. You have to also include 8.5K EB2IC approved in October 2011 that came from this year's quota.
Last edited by kd2008; 02-03-2012 at 12:17 PM.
Hmm.. makes sense. Thanks!
I think EB2 has already consumed 15K (due to QSP). CP cases will be less than 5K. So at this point the inventory has just about the applications that we need for FY2012. With 5K added further for 2009.
Mr. CO may just move by 6 months to a max of 1 year just to be safe.
See my note in the original post.
Mr. CO has no way to know how many have applied and how many have not. Also based on his experience he may know that most people who apply when they are current they do it within the 1st week.
I know that there are definately more than 15 applications in 2008. Its just that nobody has to way to find that out at this point of time.
Yeah, he may not see it but he is not stupid either. So please try to understand the point I am trying to make. You cannot assume 5K for 2009 and then proceed on with the calculations in the way you have done.
I missed the 'already allocated GCs' in FY 2012 and CP. So my calculations are off.
I hope Mr. CO does not take chances and moves dates by atleast 6 months. Good luck to all!!
The pending inventory is updated on Jan 12. Mr CO said he will move the dates another six months around Jan 24th. Doesn't he know the pending inventory status by then before making the statement?
I wish the dates cover entire 2010.
QBF - I agree with what Mesan is saying. Your employer has been horrible to you - leave at the first opportunity you have.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Demand for 2008 does not include ppl who have their GC approced. How many are they?
My message from Jan 23. Looks like from what Spec estimated it is ~0.6 for I and ~0.7 for C from the latest inventory. Good enough?Thanks to Teddy, Spec, Veni, Q and others!
A quick and interesting observation - though not directly related to EB2 situation. EB3C has a PD of Dec-01, 2004 - and according to the inventory, they only have only about 1700 EB3C cased between Dec-04 and Jul-07. So EB3C is likely to see really rapid movement in coming months and may cross the 07/07 threshold perhaps this FY and enter uncharted territory similar to the EB2I's present situation. It is amazing to see the speed with which the immigration landscape is changing.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
That's what I am thinking.
Yes. That would make more sense to me. I just find it very hard to believe that EB2IC demand in entire 2008 was less than 1000. That's absolutely ridiculous.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
This article from USCIS should resolve many doubts about what is to be expected from Pending 485 inventory report. This was posted earlier, but could not find it.
An important paragraph:
"The “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” displays the total number of pending adjustment of status applications, per preference classification. The report shows how many pending adjustment of status (green card) applications in each preference classification have priority dates in a given month and year. You can use this chart to determine how many applicants in your preference classification have priority dates in the same month and year as your own. Also, you can determine how many applicants in your preference classification are ahead of you in line for a visa number by adding together the number of cases with an earlier priority date than your own."
Hence, my take is, these are just applications who have been accepted and receipt generated. Any public report like this will always be a bit behind in the timeline, and the most upto-date current data, would only be for internal stakeholders. This being said, some numbers do look quite low.
See the USCIS article completely, it contains answers to questions like: : What does this pending inventory report contain?
ps: I can imagine suninphx dancing somewhere, he was the original proponent of the huge demand destruction theory.
Last edited by nishant2200; 02-03-2012 at 01:05 PM.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
I was wondering the same. How come people post March-2008 who filed on/after jan 1st got entire process completed by Jan 12th? Is NSC that fast (considering TSC is one-golden-egg-a-day speedwise)?
The inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012, Q. It has data till March 15, 2008 PDs (Dec bulletin)+ some beyond that (1 week or so of Jan bulletin). So EB2IC 2008 demand is not completely reflected in the inventory.
This link has full details about
AC21 - Change of Employer
http://www.murthy.com/news/UDac21qa.html
Actually it does make very good sense. Seeing the date movement in 2007, a lot of people had started their applications to get on the boat in 2007. When the boat left without them, all the applications that were started still hit the queue. Starting in Oct 07, DOL started the massive audit drive. I don't know the exact statistics of how many were audited but I remember from personal experience that they were a substantial percentage. The rejection rates for the audited applications was quite high and that would be reflected in and explain low Nov, Dec 07 filings.
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